In the coming months, we can expect trench warfare with passing success, in Ukraine's favor. This will be reflected in the fact that – thanks to the influx of Western aid – Ukraine's combat potential will soon overshadow that of Russia. As such, we can mark off specific achievements in certain areas.
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I am first and foremost referring to the southern Kherson region, where we already have an advantage. It houses the largest Russian force of all the Russian units in Ukraine. It is within our range of fire and we can destroy it by proceeding cautiously. In other words, the Russian force is entrapped, and we closed the last possible route out a few days ago through another attack on the Antonivskyi bridge.
The Russians are cut off from supplies because one cannot transport the required amount of munitions on boats and ferries. Also, the Dnipro river in this area is quite wide and the flow is strong, which means that for two weeks the Russians have not been able to build a single floating bridge.
They are already experiencing a shortage of ammunition, fuel, food, and medicine. Given the situation, they will not be able to last long. A week, most likely, and the rest will depend on how we fire on them. It should not take more than a few weeks.
As for eastern Ukraine, it is difficult because Russia has almost no regular military there, only mercenaries. True, they have had some success, but we do manage to hold our positions. These mercenaries are Russia's most capable fighters in Ukraine. If we manage to stop them, this front will have no effect on others.
How the war progresses depends entirely on the rate and amount of military equipment that is supplied to Ukraine. We are not in the same situation that Britain was in before World War II, when Churchill said, "Give us the tools, and we will finish the job."
We have the will, we have the manpower, but we still don't have enough military equipment. In fact, we lack any kind of arms that might be used for an attack. We have used up what we had from the Soviet era, and everything that we receive from the West is immediately sent to the front. We are rearming the armed, and the new equipment arrives at a slower rate and in smaller quantities than the rate and quantities that the old arms are running out. That's the problem.
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When the war began, we had 1,500 artillery pieces. Although no official data is published regarding the use of arms everything we have received so far is less than a third of that. As for the tanks, the situation is better, but not by much.
We continue to use Soviet planes, which are more outdated than Russia's. The only area where there is no shortage of weapons is in short-range combat. What we have is the minimum required to conduct a defensive operation. We need weapons to arm a brigade and launch a counterattack.
How long the Ukraine war lasts depends on Washington. In my understanding, the US is playing a complex game. What would make it very happy is a change in the Kremlin, while maintaining Russia's territorial integrity.
On the other hand, perhaps the US needs this time to prepare for the production of large quantities of weapons as part of the lend-lease act. America is already expanding its activities in its defensive industries. As soon as the factories begin work on the planned scale, which will lead to an increase in supply, the war will look completely different.
