When the political system is turbulent and unstable, one must distinguish between what's important and what isn't, and between real political maneuvers and mere background noise meant to numb the senses. On Sunday, Defense Minister Benny Gantz appointed Hod Betzer as chief of staff of the alternate prime minister's office. The appointment was part of a secret deal with Benjamin Netanyahu – and the subject of considerable criticism. Gantz mainly concealed the deal from Justice Minister Avi Nissenkorn, a member of his Blue and White faction. The justice minister is the driving force behind the militant line in Blue and White. It was important for Gantz to neutralize him. In closed-door discussions, Gantz has said he would have no issue with Nissenkorn up and leaving. Quite the opposite, it would make it easier for him to stay in the coalition.
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The move to alienate Nissenkorn is a real move. The formal investigation Gantz ordered – into the allegedly tainted procurement of German submarines and other naval missiles – is background noise. Its entire purpose is to quell the criticism over the superfluous Betzer appointment. Gantz intensified the background noise by granting a particularly aggressive interview to a notoriously "anyone-but-Netanyahu" news outlet. But this, too, was nothing more than background noise.
Gantz has other tools at his disposal to deafen and distract us. He will apparently have to use them, too, when the time comes, to blur and disguise the monumental capitulation he has been planning for weeks – over the national budget. Capitulation will stave off an election and provide Netanyahu another, more convenient exit ramp for early elections before his rotation agreement with Gantz goes into effect. Gantz is threatening, interviewing, and using harsh language, not just to mask his concession but also to prepare for the very real possibility that ultimately, despite everything, an early election is inevitable. Not because he wants one, but because Netanyahu actually might.
For now, it seems, even after the events of the past two days and the bitter exchange of words, both Gantz and Netanyahu don't want an election at the present juncture – each for his own reasons. Regardless, both are fervently positioning themselves for something to go wrong and for elections to be called for late January.
Meanwhile, Netanyahu's reported meeting with the Saudi crown prince while Gantz was concocting his schemes again exposed the gap between them – both qualitatively and in terms of leadership. Gantz is perceived as someone playing childish political games, while Netanyahu is cultivating historically significant diplomatic relationships across the globe. Gantz believed his belligerent interview and submarine investigation would be in the spotlight – but found himself pushed aside by a tiny executive plane and a prime minister forging peace.
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