Crises are an inseparable part of negotiations. The old political hands learned a long time ago that not every blow-up means an end to the process, just like a good atmosphere and progress do not necessarily promise that anything will be inked soon.
In the current political crisis, it appears as if the two sides are closer to agreeing than to calling it all off, and have their hands around each other's throats in an attempt to gain an advantage. After Benny Gantz's list split up, he is heavily dependent on Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, and the prime minister will have a very difficult time calling a new election right now, and thus is dependent on Gantz. When neither side has good options, it would be reasonable to assume that in the end, they'll find a way to work together.
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The negotiations are tough, naturally, and each side is making concessions it never dreamed it would, while also naming red lines it will not cross, even at the cost of another election. When put to the test, Gantz has much more to lose than Netanyahu. The concessions Netanyahu is being asked to make are, for him, existential. He will not give up annexation of the settlements in Judea and Samaria, or hand over the Judges Selection Committee to people who will drag the legal situation back to what it was years ago. It appears that we should also add the matter of Yamina under Naftali Bennett, which Netanyahu cannot forgo as an important partner in the new government.
But Gantz doesn't have many true red lines. He has already reversed his decision that he would never join a government with Netanyahu, and everything else is both more flexible and less important. Even his insistence on the issue of the Judges Selection Committee and rule of law is cosmetic rather than material.
The people who didn't leave him after he decided to join a Netanyahu government won't leave him if he hammers out an agreement with the Likud for control of the Judges Selection Committee. It has already been demonstrated that the lofty and dramatic talk about protecting democracy, watchdogs, the court, and more than a tool to use in the usual business of attacking the Right. One need only glance at their non-democratic parties and their "guards" who don't follow the party line to reach the obvious conclusion.
More than anything else, Gantz's speech on Monday night shows that he will likely fold. Instead of threatening Netanyahu, using a parliamentary majority to pass laws that target Netanyahu, or setting a clear deadline for the talks, Gantz sounded like he was pleading for his life. He knows that his fate is in the prime minister's hands and that his dream of someday being the prime minister can come true now but not at any time in the future.
Negotiations are expected to resume, and as of press time, it looked as if we will shortly have a government. Israel needs a government, a state budget, and solutions for the true distress that is increasing daily. Gantz was right in saying that the moment of truth has arrived. Netanyahu is correct that negotiations must continue until a deal is signed. If it's possible to form a narrow right-wing government, fine. But if it's not, we need to move ahead with what we have.
