Salem AlKetbi

Salem AlKetbi is an Emirati political analyst and a former candidate to the UAE’s Federal National Council.

Iran's dangerous role in the Middle East crisis

The Iranian regime knows for a fact that it would have been destroyed but for the silence of the United States of America.

 

The Middle East has recently witnessed tragic and intense events marked by massive bloodshed, widening the scope of the conflict between Israel and terrorism. This can be seen as a death knell for the long-term efforts of the Iranian regime, which has used the country's resources to pursue its ideological goals and an expansionist project of a sectarian nature.

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This regime aligns with the goals of all extremist terrorist organizations in the Middle East region. They stand on a common ground of will, efforts, plans, and schemes. Consequently, exacerbating the entire regional situation through bloody events in Israel or through the current escalation is considered an important strategic objective for the Iranian regime at this point. The spearhead in this regard is what is currently taking place in the Gaza Strip, where the situation is complex and the Iranian regime is engaging in deception under the pretext of defending Islamic holy sites.

The Iranian regime has never participated in regional and international security and stability efforts. Its policies were not in line with the aspirations of the countries in the region to establish peace and further consolidate the development process. Many observers and strategists do not expect Tehran to support regional moves to solve problems and mend ties. Its stance on the current situation in Gaza is not surprising.

A few days ago, Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian visited Beirut, where he met with Hezbollah, Amal, Hamas, and Islamic Jihad representatives. In these meetings, he made inflammatory statements about the reaction of the so-called "axis of resistance" and hinted at the opening of a new front in the fight against Israel, ignoring all objective strategic assessments of the current situation in the Gaza crisis.

The threatening message is reminiscent of the hollow and deceptive speeches of Saddam Hussein, who once declared that he would incinerate half of Israel and subsequently fired 39 missiles in January 1991, ultimately leading to the invasion of Iraq and the fall of the Iraqi Baathist regime.

Similarly, Tehran sent a warning message to Israel through the United Nations, saying that Iran will have to intervene if the Israeli army continues its operations in Gaza.

The Iranian regime will not intervene directly because it knows that its creation and existence were essentially with Western and American support. It is important to remember that Ayatollah Khomeini boarded an Air France plane from Roissy Airport on the outskirts of Paris in February 1979 to establish the current regime in Iran.

The Iranian regime knows for a fact that it would have been destroyed but for the silence of the United States of America. Geostrategic interests and challenges stood in the way. Now, however, the situation is different because it poses a direct existential threat to the Israeli state. It is a do-or-die situation.

Crucially, in this context, Iran's threats did not explicitly or implicitly refer to its substantial military arsenal. Rather, Iran is referring to proxy conflicts through its militia arms.

Observers must not be mistaken. Look east. The mullahs are sitting and moving the puppets that are almost turning our region upside down, even as the Israeli and Palestinian people are being sacrificed. This despicable political game continues for the sake of the interests and continued existence of some regimes, even if the plan undermines the stability of neighboring Arab countries or involves them in an unwanted major military confrontation.

All indications are that our region is at a historically critical juncture and that what we are witnessing is only the tip of the iceberg. The days are peppered with more surprises and events, all of which require diplomatic energies and efforts that are not yet in place. The international community has been divided since the outbreak of war in Ukraine, and there is no room to talk about international consensus and collective movement to stop the ongoing escalation in the Middle East.

So what is to be done? No one can predict what developments tomorrow will bring, and the possibility of a military conflict that goes beyond the current geographic scope is high, whether because of the sense of shock and widespread anger that have gripped Israel, or because of the weak margins for diplomatic action at the regional and international levels to deter evil in the Middle East region.

We are on the path of a mass suicide triggered by Iran and its regional agents. Therefore, experts believe that the Israeli response should be accelerated and the current threats should be eliminated so that prolongation does not lead to serious consequences.

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