"Illusion of distance" was the phrase quipped by Israeli President Isaac Herzog during a visit to NATO headquarters in Brussels, according to media reports. He was calling for tougher action against Iran at a time when Tehran is supplying Russia with drones used by Moscow in the war in Ukraine, arguing that leaning on the notion of geographic distance between Iran and the alliance countries is a delusion as Iran's missile capacity is on the rise, enabling it to attack the strategic sphere of the alliance and any of its European countries.
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According to Herzog, the crisis goes beyond the borders of Ukraine, and the Iranian threat now reaches the doorstep of Europe. He continued, "Iran tightening its hold on European soil, the illusion of distance can no longer hold. NATO must take the strongest possible stance against the Iranian regime, including through economic, legal, and political sanctions, and credible military deterrence." Against this backdrop, the question arises as to the scope of NATO's role in the fight against the Iranian threat.
In this regard, it should be noted that the Iranian dossier does not appear to be the focus of NATO's interest, at least at this point in time, as the alliance faces a serious strategic challenge stemming from what might be called the Russian challenge, in which the alliance found itself after the outbreak of the Ukraine crisis. The alliance's boundaries and effectiveness are being put to a test of confidence not seen since the end of the Cold War and the collapse of the former Soviet Union. The signs suggest that NATO is not on the far side of watching Iran intervene in the war in Ukraine.
NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg has already stated that Iran's plans to supply Russia with weapons and drones are "unacceptable." For its part, Iran has blamed NATO since the beginning of the crisis and believes that NATO's "provocation" against Russia triggered the crisis in Ukraine. The alliance has repeatedly expressed "concern" that Iran may soon possess nuclear weapons and use them with its missile program.
Analyzing the alliance's position, we must first focus on its charter and its strategic vision of the sources of threat.
On this point, it is worth noting that the alliance's founding charter states that it will only intervene in crises when one of its members is under imminent threat. This does not allow NATO to intervene directly in the Ukraine crisis, but only to strengthen the defenses of member states bordering Ukraine and prepare to defend those countries in the event of a widening war and an attack on them by Russia.
Although NATO intervened militarily in Libya in 2011, which was an unprecedented case of transatlantic intervention outside the alliance, this situation cannot be replicated elsewhere, especially at this stage.
The alliance suffers from a state of fragmentation, whether because of the security situation resulting from the war in Ukraine or because of disagreements among some alliance members, such as the tensions between Turkey and Greece. They also face obstacles that prevent other countries from joining the alliance, such as Sweden because of Turkey's objections. Therefore, it is difficult to find a collective solution to make a deterrent decision, let alone a military intervention, against Iran.
NATO intervention in a conflict requires a UN resolution, as was done in the case of Libya. Moreover, NATO will not consider the Iranian threat as a top priority at this time, even though it is related to energy security, one of the alliance's main concerns.
This is because NATO leadership is already concerned about the increasing hostilities in Ukraine. NATO also views this crisis as the kiss of life that has revived the alliance after a long period of debate about the role and identity crisis that the alliance has endured since the end of the Cold War.
The war in Ukraine has brought Atlantic collective security back to the forefront of Western debate and underscored the importance of continued cooperation between the United States and European transatlantic partners to counter what they see as an existential Russian threat.
One example was NATO's announcement of new plans to dramatically scale up the number of rapid reaction forces from 40,000 to more than 300,000 and ramp up military spending after Russia went from being a strategic partner to a "direct threat" to the alliance's security.
We must remember that NATO acted very cautiously in the crisis in Ukraine, which has the status of an Atlantic partner. From the beginning of the crisis, NATO was wary of sending troops that could lead to a direct confrontation with Russia, and it rejected Kyiv's calls for a no-fly zone over its territory because it also feared a direct confrontation with Russia. The alliance claims it is a purely defensive alliance. As a result, NATO will go no further in countering Iran's nuclear and missile threats.
Its positions will remain at a minimal level of expressing concern and disapproval of Iranian policies and behavior, just to prove a point. This is revealed in a statement by NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg in June 2018, when he stressed that the alliance would not help Israel defend itself if Iran attacked it. In remarks published at the time in the German magazine Der Spiegel, Stoltenberg added that Israel is a "partner country" and not a member of NATO. He clarified that the security guarantee NATO gives its members does not apply to Israel. The NATO chief stressed that NATO should not interfere in conflicts in the region. Observably, Israel is well aware of the reality of the alliance's position and it is making efforts to resolve this situation.
However, the prospects for success in this endeavor seem to be very limited or non-existent, especially as the crisis in Ukraine intensifies and there is no clear prospect of a solution. Therefore, from a geopolitical perspective, the "distance" the alliance feels seems to be primarily about Ukraine, not the overlap of Iranian threats, whether nuclear or missile, despite the Israeli president's statements.
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