While much of the attention has been on the Gaza Strip these past 24 hours, but all eyes should be on Jerusalem, which will determine whether the next few days will lead us toward further violence or see calm restored.
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This is true in both security and diplomatic terms. Both these sectors are linked, possibly more than ever. The crude remarks voiced in the Jordanian parliament had no ties to the reality on the Temple Mount, but reflected the reality with which the Jordanian government has to contend. The way it sees things, it's not the Temple Mount that is in danger, but the king's reign. So he sent his prime minister to launch a wild (and false) attack that should cause concern not only because of what was said, but because of who was behind it.
It would be easy to gloss over them, as plenty of social media users tried to do on Tuesday. But national responsibility demands that we look at Israel's broader interests. Jordan – and King Abdullah's rule there – are at the core of those interests. It's true that Israel pays in water and security (as well as "special status" for the Jordanians on the Temple Mount), but in exchange, it gets quiet and cooperation on security and intelligence along its longest border, one that has no fence, and more importantly – Jordan serves as a wedge against an Iranian takeover of all the area between it and Israel to the northeast.
So it was good that Israel's top leadership opted to express its disapproval of the Jordanian prime minister behind closed doors. A vocal fuss, which would certainly deteriorate into a diplomatic crisis, would yield nothing. The opposite – Arab countries would be forced to fall into line with Amman to show that they, too, care about the Temple Mount. Instead of the flourishing relations we have seen recently with the Gulf states (openly or in secret) and with Egypt, Turkey, and other countries, we could find ourselves losing years of progress for no good reason.
This is a classic situation of fires that have to be put out with a sprinkler, not a barrel of oil. So Israel has also been wise in choosing to act proportionally in Gaza. Hamas paid the price of a strike, like it always does, as the sovereign power in Gaza, but every indication is that the organization didn't know anything about the rocket fired at Israel on Monday night, and probably the Palestinian Islamic Jihad didn't, either. That doesn't exempt Hamas from responsibility for it, but a series of messages the group sent out on Tuesday – mostly via Egypt – shows that it has no desire to see escalation on the southern front.
The main lesson from the events of last year, which culminated in Operation Guardian of the Walls, is the need to separate belligerent fronts. Thus far, Israel has managed to do that, and this is an effort that must continue throughout the next few weeks until the end of Ramadan, and maybe after that, until Jerusalem Day.
It's not sure these efforts will succeed. If Jerusalem boils over, Hamas could be forced to change its policy, and if it does, there will always be other elements in Gaza who will want to join the party. The high level of readiness the IDF maintains in the south, which the other side can see very well, should cool down any idea or desire for that in Gaza.
If Israel manages to keep things quiet in Judea and Samaria, and leave Gaza out of the equation, it will be left with the challenge of east Jerusalem, which can be expected to increase on Friday, with prayers and the Laylat al-Qadr events.
The lessons of last year have clearly been internalized, particularly the need to reduce friction between the police and the Palestinians, which we can see in the few events occurring at Damascus Gate, which last year was a major flashpoint for violence. The Temple Mount is not in danger, but we need to blast this lie to pieces using words, not actions. Anyone who chooses a different course of action and starting blowing steam could wind up creating a storm that will engulf the entire region.
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