In the wake of the double bombing on Wednesday in the capital, Israel's security establishment is now engaged in an intense effort to locate the lab where the devices were prepared as well as to detain or eliminate the terrorist cell members who operated it. The operation is two-pronged, as it also dovetails with the ongoing effort to retrieve the body of an Israeli man that was snatched overnight from a Jenin hospital.
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Naturally, most of the focus is on hunting down the perpetrators of the Jerusalem attacks, which are the worst since the days of the Second Intifada. The severity of the attacks stems not just from the large number of casualties and the fear they have instilled among the general population – the main goal of the terrorists – but also in that they involved sophisticated explosive devices that had been successfully smuggled to the capital and placed near civilians. This was most likely achieved via a remote detonator or a timer, with the terrorists watching from afar or already fleeing the scene.
The attacks indicate that there is an explosives lab within Judea and Samaria with effective know-how. In a way, it is a ticking timebomb in and of itself: Every minute that goes by could potentially mean that another improvised explosive device had already been dispatched to Israel after having been assembled there. Moreover, such capabilities mean that the lab may manufacture explosive vests for suicide bombs, with the impact – both in sheer numbers and from a psychological perspective – being that much greater.
That's why the main effort undertaken by the Shin Bet and the Israel Police should be on hunting down the perpetrators of Wednesday's attack and then destroy the lab, under the presupposition that it had already assembled more bombs. Then they should locate the ring leader and the rest of the members so that this terrorism surge ends immediately.
While they do that, Israeli authorities must get to the bottom of this and determine whether this was the work of some terrorist organization. There are four "candidates" for this: Hamas, which has been repeatedly calling on Palestinians to wage attacks in Judea and Samaria even as it has kept Gaza quiet; the Palestinian Islamic Jihad, which has sounded the same rhetoric; and the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine, which has been trying to gradually regain its prominence after a lot of its efforts have been frustrated; and the Tanzim, an offshoot of Fatah, which has been gradually returning to terrorism in recent months, mainly in Judea and Samaria.
If it transpires that the Fatah-affiliated Tanzim is behind this, Israel would have to ratchet up the pressure on the Palestinian Authority. Involvement of Hamas or PIJ may lead to more consequential decisions vis-a-vis the Gaza Strip, potentially along the lines of Operation Daybreak, which was launched in the summer against the PIJ following the arrest of its members, and Protective Edge in 2014, which began in the aftermath of the abduction of three Israeli teens.
Whatever unfolds, it is all but given that Israel will have to bolster its military presence in Judea and Samaria in order to eradicate this recent surge in terrorism, which has been going on since March. This could unfortunately result in more hardships for average Palestinians because Israel will have to disrupt their lives in its search for explosives labs. Israel has tried to avoid this in its most recent raids but it will find it increasingly hard to do as it launches such a protracted effort.
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