For almost a decade now, Hama has been holding on to two Israeli civilians – Avera Mengistu and Hisham al-Sayed – as well as the bodies of two IDF soldiers killed in the 2014 Gaza war, Hadar Goldin and Oron Shaul.
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It appears that the government has not put this issue on the front burner, or that perhaps the public pressure has not reached unbearable proportions. But the same government that has shied away from releasing Israelis from Gaza has now turned Israelis by and large – and particularly the residents of the south – into captives held at the mercy of the Palestinian Islamic Jihad and Hamas. In essence, Israelis have become pawns in the never-ending arm wrestling match between Gaza and Israel.
During the most recent conflagration in Gaza, some 100 rockets were fired at Israeli towns, but luckily there were no deaths. This allowed Israel to de-escalate the situation and move on. But as soon as that round was over, a countdown for the next one began. When will it take place? No one knows. But it is clear that this is just a matter of time, and perhaps in the near term. It could be triggered by various developments such as some incident involving IDF forces killing terrorists; officers on Temple Mount clashing with violent worshippers on Temple Mount; or as a result of riots in Israeli prisons.
Israel, true to its typical fashion of playing tough on those who are weak, has steered clear of a clash with Hezbollah, and has been wary of igniting a flare-up with Hamas while treading carefully on Iran – but at the same time pounces on Bashar Assad's Syria, using it as a punching bag to take out its anger. Israel has tried – without much success – to send a message of deterrence to our region by striking our northern neighbor.
Yes, the Israeli actions in Syria no longer impress anyone, not even Assad, who considers the damage we inflict on him just a blip in the total destruction that his country has seen over the past decade of civil war. What's more, these strikes no longer awe Hezbollah or Iran either, and both are willing to fight Israel until the very last Syrian and Palestinian.
The rationale behind the hands-off approach to Hezbollah and Hamas is that this policy helps ensure calm on the borders. But that logic no longer applies for some reason. With regards to Gaza, it appears that Hamas is simply not strong enough to restrain the PIJ, or simply doesn't want to. Perhaps like many others in our region, it smells blood due to the perceived weakness of our government because of the internal strife, figuring Israel would not have the stamina and confidence to deal with the challenges. The result is that Israel is taken hostage in every escalation, whether it is triggered by visits of Jews to the Temple Mount or IDF raids in Judea and Samaria, or the death of a hunger-striking Palestinian prisoner.
During the height of the Israeli presence in Lebanon, Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah used to forewarn residents of northern Israel when he had plans to attack, to the point that he would tell them when they should get into the bomb shelters. Nasrallah's warnings were more believable than the Israeli government's, whose own warnings often came late. Now, it is the PIJ that has followed this playbook, publicly alerting residents of the south, and usually keeping its promises. Soon enough it might even tell them when they should seek shelter.
This cycle must be broken. When you constantly fear triggering an escalation and refuse to act to end rounds of violence – however limited and low in casualties they may be – this inevitably leads to a bigger crisis, similar to Israel's experience in Lebanon.
Israel is not the PIJ; it doesn't have to have a Pavlovian response to every instance of rocket fire. But it must have a pro-active and offensive-driven posture. It must carry out strikes that have meaning and deliver calm and deterrence, not just subscribe to containment.
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