US President Joe Biden will land here already carrying the weight of good intentions and a deaf ear for our region. He is supportive and a true friend to Israel, who is committed to its security and to strong bilateral ties. But while his feet will be in Jerusalem, his thoughts will be far away and focused on the Russo-Ukraine war, China, and the midterm elections, which could be painful for the Democrats.
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In the past few months, the president's staff have been laboring to throw off domestic criticism of the trip and especially Biden's intention to meet with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman (MBS), whom the human rights activists in Washington loathe. They have made three main demands for Biden's visit.
First, that he demand that the Saudis check the dizzying rise in oil prices by increasing output. Second, that Saudi Arabia join the nations that have normalized relations with Israel. Third, that Israel and Arab states form a defense pact whose purpose would be to counter Iran's threat to the region and help reduce American involvement in the Middle East.
Efforts to see these demands implemented make Biden's visit to Saudi Arabia and his meetings with nine Arab leaders in Jeddah the high point of the visit, whereas his stops in Israel and the Palestinian Authority are less important, a kind of layover. In Jerusalem, he will reiterate Washington's commitment to Israel's security. In Bethlehem he will explain to PA President Mahmoud Abbas why Israel's transition government cannot be expected to enter negotiations toward a two-state solution, and that he will have to be satisfied with the US doubling aid to the PA.
Iran, as well as Israel, is paying close attention to what will come out of the Jeddah summit. Iran, understanding that the US is trying to recreate a NATO-type defense pact in the Middle East that would serve as an obstacle to Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's aggressive intentions – similar to what is happening in Europe – made a first pointed statement to the nations slated to participate in the Jeddah event this week, warning them that such a pact would "seriously destabilize" the Middle East.
Does Iran have cause to worry? This author has learned that ahead of Biden's visit, the Americans have sent a draft agreement for a regional defense pact to Saudi Arabia, the Gulf states, Egypt, Jordan, and a few other countries. The proposal would include not only an "air defense umbrella" of coordinated radar and missiles defenses but also cooperation on economics and politics, among other things.
The matter will be discussed and possibly even decided in Jeddah, but the same Arab states that supported the Sharm e Sheikh summit last month to establishment a mechanism of security coordination with Israel prefer to so do in secret, without taunting the Iranians.
But it's already clear who won't take cover under that "defense umbrella," openly or otherwise – the Omanis and the Qataris. These two countries have acted as mediators between Iran and the US to help renew the Iran nuclear talks and do not want to lose that status. Qatar is preparing to host another round of talks after Biden's visit, and in Jeddah, they will tell Biden that even if Washington is seeking a deal, there is no reason to annoy the Iranians by publicly announcing a regional alliance.
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