The report about the assassination of Madhat al-Saleh, the former Syrian parliament member who used to live in Majdal Shams and served 12 years in Israeli prison, re-raises the question of the so-called war between the wars raging in Syria in recent years. This is already the third attack in Syria in the past week that has been attributed to Israel, and some are wondering how long the Assad regime, the ally of Iran and other Islamist elements in Syria, will continue allowing the IDF a relatively free hand without a retaliation that could ignite the entire region. The concern is that the Syrian's will eventually retaliate with indirect fire at Israel, which will require the government to respond in kind and possibly trigger a conflagration.
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According to reports from Syria and Lebanon, Al-Salah was shot, from the ground, near his home in the village of Ain al-Tineh, which is situated across the border from the Druze town of Majdal Shams in Israel. In Israel, the IDF declined to comment on the reports, but Al-Salah was believed to be a liaison between Iran and Syria who had helped plan terrorist attacks against Israel. If he was indeed assassinated by Israel, it's very reasonable to assume the intelligence information indicated he was still involved in such activities, and that defense officials reached the conclusion that assassinating him was necessary.
His assassination, which was apparently carried out from the ground, came on the heels of two additional actions attributed to Israel over the past week, but from the air. In the first, last Friday, it was reported that Israel struck targets in the vicinity of the T4 airbase in Syria, and it's safe to assume that attack was aimed at weapons transfers from Iran to Syria.
Al-Salah, 54, returned to Syria in 1998 after 12 years in Israeli prison. He was arrested in 1985 for subversive activities against Israel on the Golan Heights, and after he was released he crossed the border and was elected to the Syrian parliament as the Golan representative. He wasn't considered a senior figure, but his assassination should severely impair the terrorist network he sought to establish along the border.
'The response will be harsh'
Late last Wednesday night, it was reported that Syrian air defenses were activated south of Palmyra in Homs province. Subsequent reports indicated that pro-Iranian militias were targeted along the Syria-Iraq border, and Syria's state-run SANA news agency said there were casualties. The unusual location of the attack means it was likely aimed against Iranian entrenchment efforts in Syria. The fact that the Syrian reports noted the Al-Tanf area points to possible American involvement, due to the presence of American forces there.
In the wake of the attack in Homs, the Iran and Hezbollah-backed militias – referring to themselves collectively as the "Syria Allies Operations Room" – issued a statement saying that "we have made the decision to retaliate for the blood of our fighters who were killed and wounded. The response will be harsh." This could be just another threat that never materializes, but Israeli defense officials are taking it seriously and have raised the relevant alert levels.
The two strikes from the air that were attributed to Israel are part of the war between the wars, a clandestine campaign Israel is allegedly waging to stave off the next war. From the outset, the idea of the war between the wars stemmed from the chaos in Syria due to its civil war, when in 2013 Israelis officials observed that the lack of governance in the country provided fertile conditions for Israeli actions aimed at reducing threats, without the risk of those actions causing a broad conflict. Throughout these years, this reality gave Assad an excuse not to respond to the violation of his sovereignty. As time passed, Israel honed its capabilities and the defense establishment displayed impressive operational and intelligence-gathering prowess, which managed to significantly slow the pace of Iranian entrenchment in Syria.
Nothing lasts forever, though, and as more time passed the risks associated with Israel's free hand in Syria accumulated. Thus, for example, the Russians, who are neck-deep in Syria, aren't always happy about this Israeli activity and Moscow occasionally issues disconcerting statements on the matter. The fact that Hezbollah issues threats over every attack on its people in Syria also restricts Israel's operational freedom, and this past year the IDF was placed on high alert for over 100 days after a Hezbollah terrorist was killed in an attack attributed to Israel.
Now the biggest threat to Israel's freedom of activity in Syria stems from Assad's attempt to restore control over his country. Assad wants to re-establish his sovereignty and as a result, among other things, Israeli warplanes now face more anti-aircraft resistance. The Israeli Air Force, meanwhile, has reported that hundreds of surface-to-air missiles are fired at Israeli aircraft every year.
It stands to reason that in the foreseeable future, whether due to Assad's push to restore control of Syria or Iran's desire to avenge the series of Israeli attacks, one of the various actors in Syria will look to respond against the Jewish state with indirect missile or mortar fire, drones, or another form of attack.
Regardless, even if the threat fails to materialize this time, Israel should still calibrate a new course of action and examine the next stages of its war-between-wars policy – both in light of the internal developments in Syria, and in the understanding that maintaining the existing policy could, ultimately, have the opposite of the desired effect and spark a broad conflict instead rather than prevent one.
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