The capture of four of the six terrorists who escaped Gilboa prison didn't necessitate extraordinary security capabilities, nor special forces units. Basic civilian awareness and tracking skills were enough to put them back where they belong. It appears the escapees had exceedingly little idea of what to do once outside the prison walls. They mainly tried to survive, lacking a clear and defined objective. Contrary to the assessments, they had no outside help, and they also didn't try crossing the Green Line into Judea and Samaria or Jordan. They wandered directionless and frightened, rummaging for food and shelter.
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Of all things, it was these basic acts of survival that impeded the efforts to apprehend them. The Israeli defense establishment is second to none when it comes to finding wanted terrorists, mostly due to the high-level integration of advanced technological capabilities with human intelligence. The problem with the case at hand is that the terrorists didn't use technology or people. Investigators believed the terrorists employed these extreme compartmentalization measures to protect themselves, but their capture and subsequent interrogation primarily indicate they were essentially helpless: From the moment they escaped and split up, they simply had no idea what to do next.
The capture of the four, as expected, triggered violent responses from the Palestinian side. There were widespread protests in Jude and Samaria, and a rocket was fired from Gaza. The IDF acted prudently in containing the events in Judea and Samaria, coordinating its actions throughout with the Palestinian Authority's security apparatuses. In contrast, it responded relatively aggressively in the south to clarify the boundaries to Hamas: Protestations – yes; proactive escalation – no.
The southern sector currently appears more menacing, irrespective of the prisoner escape. Hamas is displaying growing agitation amid the ongoing yet apparently fruitless talks in Cairo, and is signaling its frustrations in its customary ways: incendiary balloons, border riots and threats. This situation likely won't be sustainable for long, and we could easily find ourselves on the brink of another escalation. In such a scenario, Israel will seek to establish the deterrence it failed to fully restore during Operation Guardian of the Walls, and will have to consider doing what it hasn't done to this point – assassinate Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar, even at the cost of a prolonged, bloodier round of fighting.
Amid the disquiet in Judea and Samaria and tensions in the south, we can commend the conduct of Israel's Arab citizens. The concerns that they would help the escaped terrorists have emerged as baseless. Indeed, the opposite has been the case: It was an Arab family that reported spotting two of the fugitives to the police. It's only regrettable that some media outlets disregarded the family's wish to remain anonymous, due to personal safety concerns. This will almost certainly make Arab Israelis less motivated to cooperate with law enforcement agencies in the future.
This matter is far more critical than apprehending escaped prisoners. Cooperation from Israel's Arab citizens is also vital to the imperative war on crime in the Arab sector. The shots fired over the weekend at the home of Israel Police Deputy Commissioner Jamal Hakroush was a warning sign – one in a long chain – about the lack of deterrence and governance in this sector. The recent events, however, and Israel Police Northern District's successful actions under the command of Deputy Commissioner Shimon Lavi, must now be capitalized on to amplify the policing in this sector, which is starving for solutions.
Before any of this, though, the police still have to apprehend the two remaining fugitives. Information on their possible whereabouts appears to be scarce, but in their case, too, it's safe to assume they will struggle to survive for long without help from allies. Capturing them alive, similar to the four who have already been returned to custody, and sending them back to prison shackled and blindfolded – will send an important message of deterrence to anyone thinking about escaping prison in the future.
The expected culmination of this episode from an operational perspective, however, must not divert the public's attention from the failures of the Israel Prisons Service and its senior commanders. Their resonating failure requires deep introspection, and Public Security Minister Omer Barlev did well to announce the establishment of a governmental commission of inquiry. It should have been a national commission, with broad authorities to examine the IPS's organizational structure, its conduct and suitability to its missions, but even a governmental commission, assuming its members are courageous enough, should be able to produce the necessary lessons.
Until then, Bar-Lev needs to closely monitor the IPS's conduct inside the walls of the prisons. Reforming the lenient conditions enjoyed by the security prisoners is necessary, but this has to be spearheaded by the political echelon, not members of the IPS who are currently motivated by an urge for revenge. Its behavior in recent days has only poured fuel on the riots, and what's now needed is a guiding hand to end this chapter and set us on a new path based on rationale rather than emotions.
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