Today, as Israel is in the midst of the world's fastest and most effective vaccination campaign, when the citizens of Israel are finally starting to see the light at the end of the tunnel, when the entire world is starting to talk about a foreseeable end to the COVID era, it's time to learn lessons and reach conclusions. No, not backward, about how the COVID crisis was handled in the difficult past year, but looking ahead to the pandemics that could befall us in the future.
Follow Israel Hayom on Facebook and Twitter
But before we answer the question of how to prepare for the next pandemic, we need to ask which pandemic should we prepare for? Not necessarily in terms of identifying the precise virus or bacteria, but rather in terms of the threat it can pose.
It's almost certain that the natural tendency of any government will be better preparation for the same thing, or, regrettably, to prepare slightly better for the same thing. If we had a pandemic called COVID-19, we need to prepare for COVID-30. That's human nature, to prepare for what we've experienced.
I study this problematic thinking not only as part of the "problem of induction" in the philosophy of science (asking the wrong question), but also as my many years of service in the intelligence community. Nearly all intelligence preparations start with the assumption that we will see a repeat of what already happened, with various changes. The next war will be a bigger, harder version – of the previous one.
Intelligence services' true ability to throw off the induction problem and warn of major changes, or in other words to warn of the appearance of something unfamiliar, is nearly zero. The same rules apply when it comes to public health, and so do the same failures.
On our way to total anarchy
So for what kind of pandemic should be prepare? COVID should serve as a serious warning, not only about the possible return of some mutation or another, but because of the possibility of entire new pandemics. Unfortunately, COVID has already claimed about 1 million lives, disrupted all of humanity's day-to-day life and struck a serious blow to the entire global economy.
But luckily, thus far is has not threatened the continued existence of humanity. The mortality rate of those who contract the virus varies from 0.7% in Israel, at the bottom of the scale, to 7% in the worst-hit countries.
But can nothing be ruled out when it comes to the possibilities of a much more lethal pandemic, one that would pose a threat to the lives of billions of people, and possibly civilization itself?
The person who prompted me to start thinking about this was Professor Ernest Moniz, the former secretary of energy in the Obama administration. Moniz, who currently serves as chairman of an organization that researches global threats, published a report two years ago about the state of global preparedness for new pandemics.
In our last meeting in Washington, when reports of the COVID outbreak in China were just starting to emerge, we talked about the possibility of a totally different pandemic that would include the following characteristics: it would be more contagious than COVID and take approximately a month for those who contract it to exhibit symptoms; be as lethal as Ebola, with a mortality rate of 50%; and affect children and youth to the same extent as adults.
A pandemic with that kind of mechanism could, in normal circumstances, infect most inhabitants of the globe within a few months. Since symptoms would appear and people would start dying only about a month after contracting the disease, the horses, metaphorically speaking, would already be out of the barn and running free throughout the world before humanity could shut the door.
Subscribe to Israel Hayom's daily newsletter and never miss our top stories!
We could find ourselves in an apocalyptic scenario in which things would look like this: because of widespread aviation and transportation linkage between all parts of the world, the pandemic would quickly reach every part of the globe before governments realized what was happening. And when they did realize it and decided to limit movement, there would be no need for them. Public panic will get so bad that people will shut themselves in their homes, fearing for their lives. The problem that governments will have to grapple with is the opposite of the one that exists today. Rather than instating lockdowns, they will have to force essential workers to do their jobs, when every step outside the home comprises a major risk.
As the theoretical pandemic spreads across the world, hundreds of millions will die. But many more will lose their lives as public order crumbles and total anarchy sets in. A pandemic of this type can be contained only if it is identified and understood from the very start, and only if countries take immediate emergency steps that are much harsher than anything we knew under COVID.
Sadly, in any scenario that includes any delay at all, the chances that governments will succeed in overcoming such a pandemic are virtually nil. The fact that the pandemic would also put children's lives at risk, like Ebola does, will mean that no sane parent would allow their children outside.
The inevitable result will be that people will abandon the workplace, including essential workers, and all national institutions, as well as the economies, will collapse. Workers at food factories and grocery stores will stay at home, and the food supply chain will come to a halt within a day or two. Workers in the electricity and water sectors will do the same, causing the power and water supply to dry up within a week or two. It's not impossible that many doctors and nurses will follow suit, and hospitals will be abandoned.
The hope: artificial intelligence
A country that falls into a situation like that will of course try to issue directives for public workers. But there won't be anyone to enforce them – because the police will be afraid to leave their homes, too, knowing that by doing so they almost certainly condemn their families to death. In short, nearly all essential systems will soon cease to operate, and the country will stop existing as a functioning organ. In the worst case scenario, humanity will be wiped out. In the best case, it would be thrust back to the Middle Ages.
Is this an inescapable fate? Is our only option to sit on our hands and pry that the next pandemic isn't faster or more deadly than COVID? Definitely not, on the condition that humanity is able to seriously address the expected challenge and get ready for it ahead of time.
First of all, a global tracking system must be established that will make it possible to identify outbreaks as close to the source as possible and map their spread in real time. A system that is able to use super-computing and artificial intelligence, with international law requiring the full cooperation of healthcare, tracking, and information systems from all over the world – including full access to the relevant data. This is the only way to provide rapid alerts about the approaching danger.
Secondly, the entire world, and every country, must make itself ready to set up quarantine systems internationally and domestically, and drill them periodically. The ability to close down aviation, oceanic, and ground transportation quickly in order to create "islands" will allow chains of infection to be cut off and other areas to be protected. As a result, the unaffected areas will continue to enjoy uninterrupted supply of food, electricity, and water. They will also supply those essential needs to the areas under lockdown due to outbreaks.
Other vital steps include ensuring full supplies of protective equipment for the frontline workers, including hazmat suits and masks, so that they can leave their homes and do their jobs; setting up protected research and development centers to study the pandemic and develop medicines and vaccines.
War is war
Of course, we are talking about emergency measures, some of which will seriously affect our civil rights. But war is war, because that's the price we pay to save millions of people. If, due to geographic isolation, some countries or cities are unaffected by the pandemic, we can assume that their research and development institutions will also be able to work on vaccines and medicines to fight the virus.
As I have emphasized, the basic condition for success is immediacy. Every country will have to put mechanisms in place ahead of time, and give them legal status. Since in the short history of our country, Israel has experienced the start of more than a few wars, we learned to develop intelligence and technology tools that can give us early warning and formalize the legal processes that allow us to move from an ordinary security situation to an emergency in the blink of an eyes.
The lesson we have to learn from COVID – both Israel and the world as a whole – should go beyond new healthcare preparations. It should allow us to move from routine to a state of emergency in an instant. That is the only way we have any chance of protecting humanity from new pandemics, and ensuring that civilization continues to exist.
