The conventional wisdom among practically all pundits is that level-headed people in Vladimir Putin's orbit – such as the mayor of Moscow and the deputy chief of staff at the Kremlin – have yet to come out against the Russian president despite knowing he has become a nightmare for Russia for the simple reason that they are too scared to do so. Yes, they are frightened, but not of Putin.
Follow Israel Hayom on Facebook, Twitter, and Instagram
They dread the prospect of having to deal with the aftermath of his ousting: pulling back troops from Ukraine; cutting the funding for military industries; engaging the West over the partial lifting of sanctions in exchange for helping Ukraine. They would also have to release political prisoners, and on top of that – they would have to deal with the chaos that might descend on the country and counter those who will try to continue prosecuting the war in Ukraine.
All these measures are not going to earn Putin's would-be successors any popularity. It's not because of the Putin propaganda machine that has turned Russian citizens into Zombies. We have all seen how the Communist propaganda just faded away after the radiation source was cut in the crucial years of 1989-1991. The problem is that Russia's residents don't fully appreciate just how bad things are. Things are not going to get worse, they are already at their worst. Tens of thousands of Russian troops have been either killed or wounded; billions of rubles have been lost in the war effort, the GDP has shrunk by some 5% and hundreds of billions of dollars in reserve currency and various assets have also been wasted. Those who come after Putin would have to tell the veterans that they will see their monthly allowances slashed and inform the factory workers that the procurement orders are go away.
Thus, as soon as they start doing something to get out of the mess he had left behind, they would face powerful interest groups. The Russians, by and large, are oblivious to just how bad things are, and you can see their ignorance on social media posts. Just like in 1985, when they could not fathom the possibility that communism would be gone in five years, or in 1990, that it was actually gone, so too are they not aware of what is unfolding right now. Just like the heavyweights in the Communist Party were convinced that they could survive, so too are the delusionists in power now convinced that victory is just around the corner if they announce a general call-up.
This conundrum is what has stopped Putin's potential successors from making a move. Each one wishes the other becomes the bad guy who tells the Russians the bad news– and then loses any chance at becoming popular. This is so transparent that it seems that those who come after Putin will try to show that it is "business as usual." They will engage the West and make the impression that the troops would soon withdraw; they would try to cut the budget without firing military officials, and of course, they would continue to lie that "everything is working according to plan." That's because telling the Russians what Putin did under his 20-year rule and what is required to do to rehabilitate the country after his departure is just too frightening, much more than conspiring to oust him.
Subscribe to Israel Hayom's daily newsletter and never miss our top stories!
