Recently it was revealed that an Iranian drone shot down by the Israeli Air Force over the Jordan Valley in 2018 was on its way to deliver explosives into territory administered by the Palestinian Authority.
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The incident, brought to light by Israel's Defense Minister Benny Gantz, was unusual at the time as it triggered a day of battle in the sky.
After the unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) was intercepted, Israel attacked the T-4 airbase, the drone's launch pad, deep in Syria. During the engagement the Syrians responded with anti-aircraft fire, triggering air-raid sirens throughout the Galilee and downing an Israeli fighter jet - for the first time since the 1973 Yom Kippur War.
Iran's UAV fleet constitutes a threat, not only to Israel but throughout the entire Middle East.
In September 2019, dozens of drones and cruise missiles were launched at a Saudi Arabian Aramco oil facility. Although Yemen's Houthi insurgents claimed responsibility for the attack, it appears to have been carried out from Iran, not Yemen. The damage from the attacks was significant, leaving Saudi oil facilities burning for several days, cutting the kingdom's ability to produce oil.
In October of this year, Iranian UAVs attacked the US base in the Tanf area of eastern Syria. The 200 American soldiers stationed there were evacuated ahead of time, avoiding casualties.
Just days later three suicide UAVs, apparently launched by an Iranian proxy in Iraq, attacked the residence of the country's prime minister in Baghdad's Green Zone. Prime Minister Mustafa Al-Kadhimi was unharmed in the incident.
The above are just a few of many examples of the threat posed by Iranian UAVs.
These UAVs are used by the Iranians - not only to fight the "Big Satan," the United States, and the "Little Satan," Israel - but also to interfere in the internal affairs of Middle Eastern states wherever the Iranians have an interest. The capability, in the hands of an extremist regime, has the potential to threaten US security interests in the Persian Gulf, the passage of goods by sea, and energy infrastructure, impacting global markets.
The Iranians have boasted an independent UAV manufacturing capability since the 1980's Iran-Iraq War. However, the country's program is presenting new security challenges for a number of reasons.
Firstly, due to the quantities of UAVs it, and Iran's proxies, are producing. While an exact number is hard to substantiate, it is something the Alma Center intends to address in an upcoming report.
Secondly, the versatility of the platforms gives them an edge. Intelligence gathering, smuggling, or attack by missile launch or suicide explosive strike, all are possible by UAV.
In many ways, the UAV is a complementary capability to the missile and rocket arsenals amassed by Iranian proxies: Hezbollah in Lebanon, Shiite militias in Iraq and Syria, Hamas in Gaza, and the Houthis in Yemen.
But what happens in the Middle East does not remain in the Middle East – Iranian UAVs also operate near US soil. We know that Venezuela purchased Iranian drones to secure its oil fields: a defensive measure that could be exploited by Iran to serve as an offensive front against the United States.
The ALMA Center's research details nine separate Iranian UAV manufacturing categories and 48 models. It also lists 25 UAV storage, launch, or manufacturing sites located in Iran, Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon.
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In addition to developing and manufacturing UAVs, Iran assists its proxies in building their own drones - often avoiding the signature designs of Iranian models to provide plausible deniability. Hezbollah in Lebanon, and Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad in Gaza - all now have an independent production capability, enabled by Iran.
Alongside these proxies' existing missile and rocket threats, this new capability is a very troubling challenge for Israel. UAVs could provide Iran an opportunity to make up for its failure to strike back at Israel, to retaliate for losses in Syria and elsewhere.
The extent to which Israel's air defenses have the ability to intercept a large scale and simultaneous UAV intrusion remains to be seen.
Featured on i24NEWS, this article was first published by the Alma Research and Education Center
