The selection of two women to join the leadership of Hamas in the Gaza Strip, one as a member of the organization's politburo and the second as head of the group's women's movement, is another gesture to the Palestinian public ahead of the Palestinian Authority parliamentary elections slated for May 22.
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This development it worth looking at, given the rare public nature of the group's internal elections, especially given that Hamas openly showed the close race between Yahya Sinwar, who is seen as its unchallenged leader in Gaza, and Nizar Awadallah, who represents the group's founding generation.
But the close race, which went to Sinwar, can be seen as a warning to its current leader, who represents the more hawkish wing. If we follow this line of reasoning, since he was elected in 2017, Sinwar has not managed to improve things in the Gaza Strip, and failed with the "marches of return" on the Gaza-Israel border. On the other hand, the previous election process was secret, and we don't know whether Sinwar won in a landslide or not, so it is impossible to know whether or not his support has weakened.
Secondly, when Israel Hayom looked at Sinwar's performance, we found that his all-in approach has secured more than a few victories. Hamas led the border riots, and ignored the rockets fired at Israel by "rogue" groups in Gaza, without being dragged into a direct Operation Protective Edge-style military conflict with Israel, which caused massive destruction in Gaza.
Since the "marches of return," which began in 2018, Qatar has increased the funds it sends to Gaza. Prior to these events, it invested tens of millions of dollars in Gaza per year, except for 2012, the year of Operation Pillar of Defense. But in the three years since the start of the demonstrations, Qatar's annual investment in the Gaza Strip has ballooned to hundreds of millions per year, with at least $360 million already allocated for 2021. In addition, Gaza's fishing zone has been expanded significantly, its electricity infrastructure has been improved, and border crossings opened more often, at least until the arrival of COVID. Recently, Qatari envoy to Gaza Mohammed al-Emadi confirmed an agreement to link the Gaza Strip power plant to a gas pipeline from Israel, a project to be funded by Qatar and the European Union. This project is expected to provide a major upgrade to the electricity grid in Gaza.
Under Sinwar's leadership, Hamas even managed to stave off the COVID pandemic for months. Any person who entered the Gaza Strip was forced into a lengthy period of quarantine, and the first cases in Gaza were identified only in August 2020. Since then, Hamas has instated draconian restrictions to contain the virus. Last Friday, speaking to Israel Hayom reporter Yoav Limor, Coordinator of Government Activities in the Territories, Maj. Gen. Kamil Abu Rukun, said that surprisingly, there had been nearly no COVID mortality in Gaza, and very little spread, a fact he attributed to "strict discipline" there.
Given all this, despite opposition, Sinwar's position is much more stable than it appears. Sinwar also benefits from the lack of any real alternative to his leadership, and an opposition divided among itself about a candidate. If that had not been the case, Awadallah would have triumphed in an earlier round.
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The tense moments came after Sinwar had been declared the winner. Sinwar met with Awadallah and kissed his cheek warmly. In a picture taken Monday of the Hamas leadership in Gaza, Awadallah is standing in a place of honor by Sinwar's side.
Hamas making its internal elections public was a move designed to signal to voters in Judea and Samaria, as was the integration of Jamila al-Shanti and Fatima Sharab in the Gaza leadership. There had been criticism that the Hamas leadership did not include women, and the organization responded.
Hamas wants to present a moderate façade on its way to the center of the Palestinian map. This could be seen in the press conferences Hamas held about the deaths of three fisherman last week. Hamas blamed Israel for the incident, claiming that their net had caught a booby-trapped drone that exploded. But Hamas preferred to demand that the International Criminal Court in The Hague intervene in the matter and hand the findings of a probe into the incident over to human rights group. At other times, the group would have called to avenge their deaths. In this case, that call came from the Palestinian Islamic Jihad.
While Hamas is presenting itself as democratic and Sinwar as a leader who "accepts with love" those who challenge his rule, Fatah is busy persecuting those who oppose the leadership of PA President Mahmoud Abbas. A few days ago, Fatah revoked the membership of Nasser al-Kidawi, the nephew of former PLO leader Yasser Arafat. That came on the heels of a threat by Fatah official Jibril Rajoub that any Fatah member who put together a rival party list would be ousted from the movement. And before that, close associates of Abbas set out to persuade another possible candidate for PA president – Marwan Barghouti, who is serving five life sentences for terrorist attacks – not to run in the presidential election scheduled to take place this summer.
In short, the Palestinian election dynamic is cause for concern in Israel, the main worry being that despite the polls that predict a win for Fatah, there could be a repeat of Hamas' surprise win in 2006. Splits in the Fatah ranks and the alienation the Palestinian public feels toward the PA leadership could contribute to that.
