Putin's war in Ukraine has been going on for more than two weeks, and at this stage, no one has a miracle cure that will help the Russian president climb down and stop the assault. Talks with French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Olaf Sholz have turned into a routine: after each discussion with him, they are convinced that there's no one to talk to and order further sanctions against Russia. Talks in Belarus and Turkey aren't going anywhere, either. Moscow is digging in, on principle, and demanding new security arrangements against NATO in Europe. The Ukrainians are working hard on the battlefield and bringing down one Russian plane after another, but it's still obvious to everyone that the Russian army is still moving further into Ukrainian territory.
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The Russian advance and takeover of Ukrainian cities is going slowly and awkwardly. Their equipment is breaking and Russian soldiers are being taken captive. Still, the situation is changing, and not in the Ukrainians' favor. The occupation of Kherson and Melitopol and the suffocating encirclement of Mariupol and Kharkiv were part of a specific goal: to occupy southeastern Ukraine and effectively cut them off from the rest of the country.
Another goal is to damage and destroy the Ukrainian economy. Russia wants to control strategic port cities while also razing civil infrastructures, as happened in Syria. The harshest strike on Ukrainian cities is meant to signal that Russia doesn't want to control Ukraine and gain any economic benefit from it, at least not at this stage. Russia isn't building in Syria, either, or investing in infrastructure (in contrast to Iran, for example). Russia has completely different strategic targets – military bases and areas of influence.
Despite Ukrainian President Volodymr Zelenskyy's pleading, and he understands very well how this war is going to end for him and for the Ukrainian people, the West isn't rushing to send any real military aid to Ukraine for fear of getting entangled in something bigger. The question is whether or not it is still possible to prevent the war from spreading. Putin is threatening Poland and the Baltic states that if they send Ukraine planes to weapons convoys, the deal to sell planes to Poland will be off the table. Despite the sanctions and the serious blow to the Russian economy, Putin is still the one directing this war.
Much has been said about the Ukraine war united the West and healing rifts, leaving it much stronger. But actually, the collective West still isn't able to stop the massacre in Ukraine or keep the country from being destroyed by a bully waving nuclear weapons and threatening to use them. At the moment, the West doesn't anything to offer except javelins (which are doing a good job), and shutting down McDonald's branches in Moscow. A country that wanted to be part of the West is being sacrificed on the altar of preserving the current world order, even though it's clear to everyone that this order has long since collapsed.
We don't know how the Ukraine war will end, but it's clear that if in the end we don't wind up with an equation of deterrence that will both end the war and punish the aggressor, the world after it will be much more dangerous for us all, including Israel. We can get rid of the international institutions that have been irrelevant for a long time, because any bully who gets his hand on an atomic bomb will be able to get their way as the international community expresses outrage and support for the victim, with appropriate emojis. Israel isn't an uninvolved actor in all this. It too is located in an area of chaos, and here, too, there are countries – like the nuclearizing Iran – that will take advantage of this opportunity to strengthen themselves and set new conditions. This, along with countless humanitarian and humane reasons, is why Israel should put itself on the right side of history.
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