The scope of the deal is estimated at approximately $3.1 billion and is expected to complete the sales contract that Israel and Germany signed about two years ago, valued at approximately $3.6 billion. The two deals together are estimated at approximately $6.7 billion (over 20 billion shekels), Israel's largest-ever defense export deal.

Defense Ministry Director-General Maj. Gen. (Res.) Amir Baram said, "The Arrow deal expansion is another significant milestone in the deepening strategic relations between Israel and Germany, our central partner in Europe. The massive deal, valued at over $3 billion, embodies, in practical terms, the Defense Ministry's strategy to increase defense exports. The deal will strengthen Israel's position in the world as a defense superpower, will expand and accelerate Arrow production for the IDF as well, and will channel billions into strengthening the defense industries and developing the next generations of defense systems."

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The escalating effectiveness of Iranian strikes emerged through a comprehensive analysis of missile defense data compiled by The Wall Street Journal, drawing from think tanks based in Israel and Washington, DC Officials familiar with the conflict, according to The Wall Street Journal, indicated that Iran's evolving strategy involved launching more advanced, longer-range missiles from diverse locations deep within Iranian territory, fundamentally altering the tactical landscape of the confrontation.

Tehran's methodical approach to overcoming Israeli defenses involved significant changes in attack timing and geographic targeting patterns, sources told The Wall Street Journal. Rather than maintaining consistent overnight barrages, Iranian forces shifted to smaller daylight waves launched from a broader array of positions, effectively testing different vulnerabilities in Israel's defensive grid.

The Iranian offensive strategy specifically targeted Israel's multilayered defense system, which includes the Arrow 3 interceptors for exo-atmospheric threats, Arrow 2 for atmospheric interception, Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (Thaad) systems, David's Sling for medium-range threats, and the Iron Dome for short-range projectiles. Each layer operates at different altitudes and ranges, creating what missile defense experts consider among the world's most comprehensive protective networks.

Mora Deitch, head of the Data Analytics Center at the Institute for National Security Studies at Tel Aviv University, provided crucial data showing that Iran's most successful attacks occurred on June 22, when 10 out of 27 missiles successfully struck Israeli territory. This represented a significant escalation from earlier phases of the conflict, when Iranian penetration rates remained considerably lower.

"Any missile system, even a sophisticated one like Israel's, will leak eventually," Raphael Cohen, a senior political scientist at Rand, explained to The Wall Street Journal. "The key for any air-defense system is less that you build a perfect system with any one layer and more the cumulative effect."

The Iranian tactical evolution included deployment of hypersonic Fattah-1 missiles, which descend at sharp angles from outside Earth's atmosphere at speeds exceeding 10 times the speed of sound. These advanced weapons feature detachable warheads capable of maneuvering to avoid interceptors, challenging only Israel's most sophisticated systems like Arrow 3 and David's Sling, which can adjust course mid-flight for tracking.

Iranian forces demonstrated increasing sophistication by varying firing patterns, targeting geographically dispersed cities, and altering intervals between attacks. Yehoshua Kalisky, a missile-defense expert at the Institute for National Security Studies, noted that "They tried to separate the Israeli defense system," describing how Tehran's strategy aimed to overwhelm defensive capabilities through tactical dispersion.

Analysis of Israeli public statements revealed declining interception rates throughout the conflict. Officials initially claimed 90% to 95% interception rates during active hostilities, but post-ceasefire assessments acknowledged an overall 86% success rate, according to The Wall Street Journal's review of military communications.

The Jewish Institute for National Security of America provided data showing that Iran's breakthrough rate doubled between the conflict's first and second halves. Ari Cicurel, associate director of foreign policy at the institute, concluded that Iran successfully adapted "how, when and what" it was firing, demonstrating systematic learning and tactical evolution.

Israel's successful targeting of Iranian missile launchers prevented Tehran from deploying older, less accurate short-range systems, but this defensive success paradoxically forced Iran to utilize more advanced long-range weapons earlier in the conflict. This escalation brought hypersonic and precision-guided systems into play sooner than might have occurred under different circumstances.

The conflict's implications extend beyond the immediate participants, particularly regarding President Donald Trump's executive order establishing the $175 billion Golden Dome system for American missile defense. Originally named after Israel's Iron Dome, this planned network faces the challenge of protecting significantly larger territory than Israel's compact geography.

Ukraine's ongoing conflict offers a different model for territorial defense, but its air protection relies on a patchwork of American, European, and domestic technologies rather than Israel's integrated approach. Cohen emphasized that Israel's unified system provides a better comparison for what the United States seeks to develop.

Declining interceptor availability and high costs likely influenced Israeli targeting decisions as the conflict progressed, with defense officials conserving resources by prioritizing threats posing the greatest danger. This economic factor adds another dimension to the strategic calculus facing nations operating expensive missile defense networks.

Iranian missiles that reached Israeli airspace between June 13-24 showed clear patterns of increasing success, with the most significant breakthrough occurring during the final phases of the conflict. Fragments of Iranian weaponry discovered in West Bank settlements provided physical evidence of successful penetrations.

Both Israeli and Iranian officials have independently called for comprehensive reviews of their aerial capabilities following the conflict's conclusion. Kalisky noted that "We are both on a learning curve," describing how "they're trying to improve their attacks, and we, our defense."

The geographical distribution of damage points across Israeli territory, including areas near Tel Aviv and in the West Bank, demonstrated Iran's ability to strike diverse targets despite Israel's defensive efforts. Satellite data analysis revealed impact locations that highlighted the scope of successful penetrations.

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An initial planning meeting was recently held in Germany, attended by senior officials from both countries' defense ministries. Leading the session was Moshe Patel, head of the Israel Missile Defense Organization in the Directorate of Defense Research and Development at the Defense Ministry. Also present were Col. Carsten Koepper, who is overseeing the project on behalf of Germany, and Yaakov Galifat, head of the MLM Division at Israel Aerospace Industries, which is the prime contractor for developing and manufacturing the system.

Alongside IAI representatives, the meeting was also attended by officials from other Israeli defense companies, as well as from German firms IABG and MBDA, which will assist in integrating the system and developing the operational infrastructure in Germany.

The operational Arrow system, which includes the Arrow 2 and Arrow 3 interceptors, was jointly developed by Israel and the US to provide a response to long-range ballistic missiles. Over the past year, the system demonstrated its capabilities in real combat scenarios, including during the Iranian missile attack in April 2024 and in other security incidents.

As preparations for the system's transfer move forward, the Defense Ministry emphasized that the Israel Missile Defense Organization continues to strengthen Israel's multi-layered defense array, while also expanding technological and security cooperation with allied nations, with an emphasis on boosting Israeli defense exports.

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The Arrow 3 anti-ballistic missile system intercepted a surface-to-surface missile headed toward Israel from Yemen, the IDF announced Sunday morning. The missile did not cross into Israeli territory.

Sirens were activated in Eilat and the region due to fear of falling debris, but no injuries or damage were reported.

Video: PM Netanyahu on the strike on Houthi targets / Credit: X/@netanyahu

The news comes after IDF fighter jets hit terror targets in western Yemen in response to a Friday early morning Houthi drone attack in Tel Aviv, in which one person was killed and several injured.

A Syrian television reporter stationed in Yemen reported that Israeli fighter jets struck oil facilities, leading to a fire at the site. The pro-Iranian channel Al-Mayadeen reported that the strike on Al-Hudaydah was carried out by Israeli F35 fighter jets.

Houthi official Nasser al-Din Amer claimed there was "preliminary information" indicating an Israeli attack on the city's port, which is controlled by the pro-Iranian militia. Saudi network Al-Hadath reported from its sources that the attack on the port, controlled by the Houthis, was carried out by Israel.

He stated that Israel attacked the Al-Hudaydah area, causing a fire at the "main port of Yemen," adding that "Yemen's stance in support of Gaza will not change. The actions aiding Gaza will not cease, and the response to this aggression is inevitable."

The Houthis claimed responsibility for the drone strike in central Tel Aviv between Thursday night and Friday.

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The United States has approved Israel's sale of the Arrow 3 missile defense system to Germany, the Israeli Defense Ministry announced on Thursday.

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The $3.5 billion military contract is Jerusalem's largest ever. Berlin wants the system, which is capable of intercepting exo-atmospheric ballistic threats, to defend against the threat of Russian missiles.

Video: Arrow 3 system test / Credit: Defense Ministry

"The US government's approval of the delivery… is an expression of confidence in the outstanding capabilities of Israel's defense industries. This is a significant decision, which will contribute to Israel's force buildup and economy," said Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant in a statement Thursday. It is "particularly meaningful to every Jewish person that Germany is acquiring Israeli defense capabilities."

The Arrow 3 was jointly developed by the Israeli Missile Defense Organization and the US Missile Defense Agency, and is manufactured by Israel Aerospace Industries.

In June, German lawmakers approved advanced payments of up to €560 million ($606 million) for the system, which will be transferred to Israel after a letter of commitment is signed in the coming weeks.

The full contract of $3.5 billion (previously reported to be $4.3 billion) will be signed by the end of this year, subject to approvals from the Israeli and German parliaments.

The German Air Force is slated to take delivery of the Arrow 3 by the fourth quarter of 2025.

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz made an initial request for the system in a meeting with then-Prime Minister Naftali Bennett in March 2022, with Israel working behind the scenes since then to persuade Washington to allow the sale.

Because the system was jointly developed, Israel requires American approval to sell it to a third party.

The Arrow 3 is operational in Israel, as part of the country's multi-tier air-defense program. Israel Aerospace Industries is now developing the Arrow 4, which will operate both within and above the atmosphere.

Israel defense exports in 2022 accounted for a record $12.6 billion.

 Reprinted with permission from JNS.org.

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