The escalating effectiveness of Iranian strikes emerged through a comprehensive analysis of missile defense data compiled by The Wall Street Journal, drawing from think tanks based in Israel and Washington, DC Officials familiar with the conflict, according to The Wall Street Journal, indicated that Iran's evolving strategy involved launching more advanced, longer-range missiles from diverse locations deep within Iranian territory, fundamentally altering the tactical landscape of the confrontation.

Tehran's methodical approach to overcoming Israeli defenses involved significant changes in attack timing and geographic targeting patterns, sources told The Wall Street Journal. Rather than maintaining consistent overnight barrages, Iranian forces shifted to smaller daylight waves launched from a broader array of positions, effectively testing different vulnerabilities in Israel's defensive grid.

The Iranian offensive strategy specifically targeted Israel's multilayered defense system, which includes the Arrow 3 interceptors for exo-atmospheric threats, Arrow 2 for atmospheric interception, Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (Thaad) systems, David's Sling for medium-range threats, and the Iron Dome for short-range projectiles. Each layer operates at different altitudes and ranges, creating what missile defense experts consider among the world's most comprehensive protective networks.

Mora Deitch, head of the Data Analytics Center at the Institute for National Security Studies at Tel Aviv University, provided crucial data showing that Iran's most successful attacks occurred on June 22, when 10 out of 27 missiles successfully struck Israeli territory. This represented a significant escalation from earlier phases of the conflict, when Iranian penetration rates remained considerably lower.

"Any missile system, even a sophisticated one like Israel's, will leak eventually," Raphael Cohen, a senior political scientist at Rand, explained to The Wall Street Journal. "The key for any air-defense system is less that you build a perfect system with any one layer and more the cumulative effect."

The Iranian tactical evolution included deployment of hypersonic Fattah-1 missiles, which descend at sharp angles from outside Earth's atmosphere at speeds exceeding 10 times the speed of sound. These advanced weapons feature detachable warheads capable of maneuvering to avoid interceptors, challenging only Israel's most sophisticated systems like Arrow 3 and David's Sling, which can adjust course mid-flight for tracking.

Iranian forces demonstrated increasing sophistication by varying firing patterns, targeting geographically dispersed cities, and altering intervals between attacks. Yehoshua Kalisky, a missile-defense expert at the Institute for National Security Studies, noted that "They tried to separate the Israeli defense system," describing how Tehran's strategy aimed to overwhelm defensive capabilities through tactical dispersion.

Analysis of Israeli public statements revealed declining interception rates throughout the conflict. Officials initially claimed 90% to 95% interception rates during active hostilities, but post-ceasefire assessments acknowledged an overall 86% success rate, according to The Wall Street Journal's review of military communications.

The Jewish Institute for National Security of America provided data showing that Iran's breakthrough rate doubled between the conflict's first and second halves. Ari Cicurel, associate director of foreign policy at the institute, concluded that Iran successfully adapted "how, when and what" it was firing, demonstrating systematic learning and tactical evolution.

Israel's successful targeting of Iranian missile launchers prevented Tehran from deploying older, less accurate short-range systems, but this defensive success paradoxically forced Iran to utilize more advanced long-range weapons earlier in the conflict. This escalation brought hypersonic and precision-guided systems into play sooner than might have occurred under different circumstances.

The conflict's implications extend beyond the immediate participants, particularly regarding President Donald Trump's executive order establishing the $175 billion Golden Dome system for American missile defense. Originally named after Israel's Iron Dome, this planned network faces the challenge of protecting significantly larger territory than Israel's compact geography.

Ukraine's ongoing conflict offers a different model for territorial defense, but its air protection relies on a patchwork of American, European, and domestic technologies rather than Israel's integrated approach. Cohen emphasized that Israel's unified system provides a better comparison for what the United States seeks to develop.

Declining interceptor availability and high costs likely influenced Israeli targeting decisions as the conflict progressed, with defense officials conserving resources by prioritizing threats posing the greatest danger. This economic factor adds another dimension to the strategic calculus facing nations operating expensive missile defense networks.

Iranian missiles that reached Israeli airspace between June 13-24 showed clear patterns of increasing success, with the most significant breakthrough occurring during the final phases of the conflict. Fragments of Iranian weaponry discovered in West Bank settlements provided physical evidence of successful penetrations.

Both Israeli and Iranian officials have independently called for comprehensive reviews of their aerial capabilities following the conflict's conclusion. Kalisky noted that "We are both on a learning curve," describing how "they're trying to improve their attacks, and we, our defense."

The geographical distribution of damage points across Israeli territory, including areas near Tel Aviv and in the West Bank, demonstrated Iran's ability to strike diverse targets despite Israel's defensive efforts. Satellite data analysis revealed impact locations that highlighted the scope of successful penetrations.

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Israel is grappling with a looming shortage of interceptor missiles as it strengthens its air defenses against potential attacks from Iran and its proxies, according to industry executives, former military officials, and analysts, Financial Times reports.

The United States is rushing to help fill gaps in Israel's protective shield, announcing on Sunday the deployment of a Terminal High-Altitude Area Defense (Thaad) antimissile battery. This move comes as Israel is expected to launch a retaliatory strike against Iran, risking further regional escalation.

"Israel's munitions issue is serious," said Dana Stroul, a former senior US defense official with responsibility for the Middle East. "If Iran responds to an Israel attack [with a massive air strike campaign], and Hezbollah joins in too, Israel air defenses will be stretched," she added, noting that US stockpiles are not limitless. "The US can't continue supplying Ukraine and Israel at the same pace. We are reaching a tipping point."

Boaz Levy, chief executive of Israel Aerospace Industries, a state-owned company that manufactures Arrow interceptors used to shoot down ballistic missiles, said that production lines are running triple shifts to meet demand. "Some of our lines are working 24 hours, seven days a week. Our goal is to meet all our obligations," Levy said, adding that the time required to produce interceptor missiles is "not a matter of days."

Israel's triple-layered air defenses have successfully intercepted the majority of incoming drones and missiles fired by Iran and its proxies from across the region. The Iron Dome system has shot down short-range rockets and drones fired by Hamas from Gaza, while David's Sling has intercepted heavier rockets from Lebanon, and the Arrow system has blocked ballistic missiles from Iran.

The Israeli military claimed in April that, with the help of the US and other allies, it achieved a 99 percent interception rate against an Iranian salvo of 170 drones, 30 cruise missiles, and 120 ballistic missiles. However, Israel had less success fending off a second Iranian barrage of over 180 ballistic missiles fired on October 1, with almost three dozen missiles hitting Israel's Nevatim air base, according to open-source intelligence analysts.

The newly deployed US-supplied Thaad battery, designed to shoot down ballistic missiles, will complement Israel's Arrow system. This reinforcement comes as Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's government plans its response to Iran's missile barrage in October, which Tehran said was to avenge the killing of leaders of Hamas and Hezbollah.

Lebanon-based Hezbollah has demonstrated its ability to strike at least 60km into Israel despite weeks of Israeli attacks on its commanders and arsenal. On Sunday, a Hezbollah attack drone killed four Israeli soldiers at a military base in the center of the country.

"We are not seeing Hezbollah's full capability yet. It has only been firing at around a tenth of its estimated prewar launching capacity, a few hundred rockets a day instead of as many as 2,000," said Assaf Orion, a former Israeli brigadier general and head of strategy at the Israel Defense Forces. "Some of that gap is a choice by Hezbollah not to go full out, and some of it is due to degradation by the IDF ... But Hezbollah has enough left to mount a strong operation," Orion added. "Haifa and northern Israel are still on the receiving end of rocket and drone attacks almost every day."

Analysts told the Financial Times that defense planners and Israel's AI-powered air defenses are being forced to prioritize which areas to protect. More than 20,000 rockets and missiles have been fired at Israel over the past year from Gaza and Lebanon alone, according to official Israeli figures.

"During the October 1 attack, there was a sense the IDF reserved some Arrow interceptors in case Iran fired its next salvo at Tel Aviv," said Ehud Eilam, a former researcher at Israel's Ministry of Defense. "It's only a matter of time before Israel starts to run out of interceptors and has to prioritize how they are deployed."

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"I assume that there are dozens of fragments of Israeli missiles in the areas where we have attacked," Rubin adds.

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Rubin founded the Defense Ministry's Homa Directorate, which develops missile defense systems, and served as its head from 1991-1999. He then went on to manage the development of various weapons systems for the Israeli Aerospace Industries and for the Defense Ministry. He was been awarded the Israel Defense Prize twice, as well as the US Missile Defense Agency "David Israel" Prize.

"Every army in the world takes into account that a missile fired at the other side will fall into enemy hands. In effect, the only surprise [with the David's Sling interceptor] is that it fell into Russia's hands, and not Iran's. This is good news for us," Rubin says.

According to the veteran defense expert, the IDF has examined the various projectiles aimed at Israel over the years. He thinks this includes an Iranian drone that Israel shot down two years ago.

"I assume they collected the pieces. This is a standard, accepted practice for every army and defense establishment. We learn from everything that lands here," he says.

Rubin also notes that unlike the Syrians or the Iranians, Russia has missile expertise, so it would be hard to believe they'll be surprised at what they see.

"It fell into Russia's hands, and not Iran's. This is good news for us"

According to Rubin, not long ago Russian President Vladimir Putin unveiled missiles that had "some parts that were better than the Americans'."

Rubin rejects claims that the Israeli interceptor landed without sustaining damage, calling such a scenario "virtually impossible."

"There is no such thing as a missile that lands intact, and even when the missile doesn't hit its target, it doesn't stay complete and hits the ground with immense force."

Rubin says that even if the missile is broken, it could still be examined and studied.

"Every missile can be analyzed," he says.

While it's "not pleasant" for Israelis to hear reports that one of our missiles has been captured, "it should come as no surprise," Rubin adds. "It's something that should be taken into account. Anything you shoot over the border will be captured, and we need to expect that.

"This is not something specific to Israel. If the Russians shot missiles at the United States, the Americans would rush to examine the fragments," he says.

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The unconfirmed report, which originated from the Chinese news site SINA, claims that the interceptor missile missed its target, believed to be a Syrian anti-aircraft missile, and landed on the Syrian Golan Heights without suffering any major damage.

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In July 2018, Syria fired Russian missiles toward Israel, and the David's Sling responded by firing interceptors toward Syrian targets. The Chinese report said that one of the IDF missiles missed its target and was remotely destroyed by the IDF, whereas the second interceptor landed and exploded.

• Read Yoav Limor's analysis of David's Sling performance from July 2018

According to the report, the Syrian military might have found the second interceptor and leaked information about it to the armed forces of Syrian President Bashar Assad.

David's Sling is a system designed to intercept mid-to-long-range missiles. It is considered the most advanced of its kind in the world and is celebrated as a technological achievement by Israel's military industry.

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The cost of a single Iron Dome interception is about $80,000. The cost of the batteries themselves and their operation is also high. If we need to use the David's Sling system or Arrow 2 missiles, the average cost of a single interception will jump to about $2 million.

It takes a long time to rebuild the supply of interceptor missiles because the manufacturing process is relatively slow. On the other hand, the terrorist groups use rockets that are manufactured quickly, at a negligible cost. In effect, our enemies currently have such large stockpiles of firepower that they can handle a long war without resupplying.

Using the expensive Iron Dome missiles to intercept massive quantities of cheap rockets and barrages of mortars is economically inefficient, even though it effectively takes down most of the rockets that pose a danger to human life.

Given all this, an effective solution would be to upgrade our defenses against rockets and missiles with a system based on a laser cannon. We should consider it.

Let's look at the numbers. The cost of an interception using laser rays is only about $2,000 – some 2% of the cost of an Iron Dome interception and a fraction of the cost of an interception using David's Sling or the Arrow 2.

However, do such efficient systems exist? Northrop Grumman offered us the SkyGuard system, which was developed at Israel's request and with U.S. research and funding, 12 years ago. The system was designed to facilitate affordable and logistically efficient answers to massive onslaughts of rockets and mortars. It could be made operational in two to three years. In effect, it could already be operational if the IDF had made the decision to acquire it.

Eight of these systems, which intercept any threat within 25 seconds, could block everything fired from the Gaza Strip, including mortars and all types of rockets – even long-range ones – immediately after they are launched. If every launching area is covered by three of these systems, each one could take down about seven threats simultaneously, and it would be possible to intercept a barrage of up to 24 rockets at once.

Using this system in conjunction with Iron Dome could eradicate all low-level threats and would eliminate the need for immense financial outlay on attacking Gaza, as well as allow residents of southern Israel to go about their day-to-day lives.

The situation on the northern front, against Hezbollah, is much worse. Defense and security officials think that in the next war with Lebanon, some 2,000 rockets and missiles will be fired at Israel daily, some of which will have precision capabilities. In a scenario like that, we could expect hundreds of direct hits per day of fighting. Therefore, we need to do everything possible to equip ourselves with SkyGuard.

Eli Bar-On is an economist who specializes in the analysis of defense systems and performance research.

Eli Meron is a physicist and chemist and a former senior official in the Israeli defense establishment.

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