The Iranian decision to attack the Zircon oil tanker, which is linked to Israeli businessman Idan Ofer, raises two quick, seemingly contradictory, insights: The first, that Iran is in a predicament and needs operational achievements; the second, that its self-confidence is high, and its leaders are convinced that they will not pay a price for their actions.

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In Israel yesterday it was difficult to pinpoint a direct motive for the attack. This could have been revenge for the attack last week that was attributed to the Israeli Air Force, in which an arms smuggling operation was thwarted and oil tankers were damaged on the Syria-Iraq border. It could also be the continuation of Iran's efforts to revenge a series of actions attributed to Israel on its own soil, in an attempt to create a balance of deterrence that will deter it from conducting similar actions in the future. It is also possible that this is connected to the World Cup; an attempt to instill fear in Israeli soccer fans and prevent some of them from coming to Qatar, in order to harm efforts of bringing Jerusalem and Doha closer together.

This was the eleventh attack attributed to Iran against assets in the Persian Gulf since 2016. Some of them were directed against Israeli-owned vessels, in order to take revenge for actions claimed to be implemented by Israel against Iranian ships or efforts to smuggle Iranian oil to Syria and Lebanon. The most severe attack in this chain of events was carried out in July 2021 on the Mercer Street oil tanker, which was owned by a foreign company belonging to businessman Eyal Ofer, Idan's brother. A drone that exploded on the vessel's deck killed two sailors with European citizenship – a Romanian captain and a British security guard – and led to sharp criticism against Tehran, which has since frozen its offensive activity in the Gulf.

Now Iran has decided to return to this method of operation. It is likely that, just as in the previous events, the attacking drone was launched by the Revolutionary Guards, under the command of Aerospace Force Amir Ali Hajizadeh, one of the dominant players in Iran today, who holds a lot of power since the assassination of the commander of the Qods Force Qassem Soleimani. In all these cases an identical Shahed-136 drone was used. However, it seems that in yesterday's attack it was not armed or an extremely small explosive warhead was used, in order for the signaling to be of sufficient intensity, and to avoid significant damage.

Israel yesterday tried to leverage this attack into a בampaign against Tehran. As expected, the use of the same drone that Iran supplies to Moscow in the war in Ukraine was highlighted, as well as what was defined as "an Iranian effort to sabotage the World Cup". From past experience, it is doubtful whether this event will succeed in generating negative energy towards Tehran, which is already suffering from harsh international criticism following the events that started out with the death of the young woman Mahsa Amini and developed into the "Hijab Protest," that has been taunting the authorities in Tehran for more than two months.

New Friends

Iran's confrontational posture should concern Israel to a great extent for a number of reasons, chiefly among them being American weakness (demonstrated by Washington's eagerness to return to the nuclear agreement), and the alliance forged by Iran with Russia and China, which puts it in a stronger position than it was previously. For the first time, it currently finds itself not in a dependent position vis-a-vis Moscow, but with the ability to manage mutual interests, which it will try to leverage for future achievements in Syria and other zones.

Iran is using the self-confidence it gained as a result to intensify its attempts to attack Israel. This is true in the incessant efforts to smuggle arms to Syria and Lebanon, and is true in the endless efforts to attack Israeli and Jewish targets abroad.

Although it failed (and was humiliated) in Istanbul last summer, Iran tried (and failed and was humiliated again) this week in Georgia. The lesson is clear: Iran will continue to try, almost everywhere and all the time, which requires Israel to uphold its expansive and complex intelligence and security efforts.

This effort does not include protecting the economic interests of Israeli citizens, definitely not those operating in foreign countries and under a foreign flag – such as the ship that was attacked yesterday. Even so, this attack should also not be regarded as an attack on a financial company owned by an Israeli citizen, but as an attack on the State of Israel. This attack was certainly a failure, but despite this, it shows more than anything else that there is not, and will never be, any chance of amity with Iran. In the future, Israel will be forced to continue to take action against Iranian targets, both on Iranian soil and around the world, in order to deter and demand a price.

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The home stretch of the election campaign is also, to be honest, its first stretch. Despite the tension, the uncertainty and the feeling that this time (as always, if to be honest) every vote counts, the major parties have failed to provoke interest and motivate their voters to do all in their ability to lead to a decision in the desired direction. In the ten days until the elections, the candidates will continue doing what they have done up until now: Likud leader Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will continue to try waking up the Likudniks in their sleepy strongholds and Prime Minister Yair Lapid will continue his campaign of self-branding himself as a top-notch statesman.

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The strategic moves have already been devised, the next actions have been carefully planned, but each party has its X-factor, the "pain in the butt" that they have not been able to get rid of so far, the insignificant factor that could turn the whole process upside down and ruin all the plans. For Netanyahu it's Ayelet Shaked. For Lapid it's Benny Ganz. Three months of campaigning did not result in any breakthrough in their attempts to shake them off and get them out of the way.

Those close to Netanyahu have testified that the pressure is rising. Some even describe a sense of panic. As in all former election campaigns, it doesn't matter who holds which position and who is designated as the director of the election headquarters – in the end, Netanyahu himself manages the whole process, from A to Z. Before the holidays his face displayed a slight tinge of optimism. The internal polls showed that the Right-wing bloc was in the lead, 62 almost 63.

Everyone who talked to him heard one theme: the polls in the media are wrong. They are not taking the recovery of Likud voters into account. This time, he was sure, they would come out in droves. They have had enough being in the opposition for a year and a bit. The coalition with the Left and the Arabs drove them crazy. And in addition, he told them that the visits every evening to the neighborhoods where "golden polling stations" were found, in other words, places with low voting rates in Likud strongholds, would result this time in significant participation in the elections and this the forecasts do not see. He was convinced of this.

But that was a long time ago. In the past week, after many visits in the streets and neighborhoods of these golden polling stations, the expected rise in the polls did not show up. Not in the media nor in the internal Likud polls. Completely treading water. Netanyahu gave full gas, but there is concern that all this was in neutral. And when this reality slaps him in the face, the atmosphere will change, the tension will rise, tones will become harsh and chaos will take over.

Netanyahu cannot even give a straight answer about what to do with Shaked. His family members are putting heavy pressure on him to stamp on her and finish her off. Netanyahu is hesitating. Other senior officials at the headquarters are saying that he should not be wasting energy if it has unclear benefits. And the result of all this is one continuous stutter. While Netanyahu, calling at every opportunity not to waste one's vote on a party that might not pass the electoral threshold, is not taking any other action to try to break down her party from within.
It's not as if he has any doubt about whether she will pass or not. It is clear to him that there is no chance that she is going to pass. The important question to him is where will the votes go if she resigns. Some percent will migrate to the Right, to Likud or the Religious Zionism, and some to the Left, to Ganz and Lapid. As long as there is uncertainty on the subject, Netanyahu has difficulty deciding.

In the meantime, Shaked, who is conveying the message that she will run until the end, is not passing the electoral threshold in any poll. Apparently, this is enough to make her decide to retire during the coming week. But, her and her followers' hope – probably false hopes given the current situation – is that something will happen at the last minute, that maybe Netanyahu will finally come to his senses, realize that she is his only chance to reach the desired 61st mandate and call on the public to vote for her so that she passes the electoral threshold.

Waiting around the corner

Beyond the polls and the evaluation of possibilities as we approach the opening of the polls, Netanyahu is aware of a volcano that is beginning to rumble under his feet. Mainly from his friends in the Likud, but also among the leadership of the ultra-orthodox parties, his so-called natural partners. Now, before the elections, everyone is expressing unity, following him and not glimpsing to either side. Even if he asks them to sign a letter of loyalty or to be interviewed by the media and swear loyalty to him – they will do so.
But beneath the surface other voices are clearly heard. These are the ones that have been spoken in the last few days at every meeting and every random gathering; that this is his last chance. If he fails, the Right-wing bloc will never be the same. The Likud may not either. To be honest, and with all due respect to loyalty towards Netanyahu that the voters of those parties expect, being in the opposition is driving them crazy. In the past year, Ra'am has received 54 billion shekels, and they – zero.

Even more so, the fingers continue to be pointed at them, despite the fact that they have long since been dethroned from their centers of power. Yisrael Beytenu leader Avigdor Lieberman is already an old tale, Merav Michaeli recently discovered the secret of success "awarded" to those who bash the ultra-Orthodox, and has also started attacking and condemning them in an attempt to pass the electoral threshold.

Netanyahu understands that the ultra-Orthodox will probably fail in the next test of loyalty if he does not have 61 mandates. Even though there is no certainty that there will be an alternative coalition with the ultra-Orthodox and the Left wing parties, the danger certainly exists.

Another danger is the one developing from within the Likud. The ousting of Haim Katz from his position at the election headquarters by Yisrael Katz looks like the first budding of internal battles within the party. If the Likud forms the government, the situation will calm down. There is nothing like governmental positions to help calm the spirits. But if not – God help us.

Netanyahu will have to work hard to keep the package intact. It is unclear whether this will lead to a rebellion or a split within the party, because despite all, the Likud DNA does not permit any member to go against the incumbent leader so easily. But a failure this time in the elections might be much more challenging than in the past and may manifest itself in a lack of factional discipline, with individual MKs flexing their muscles, with intensive briefings against Netanyahu in the media, and much, much more. This is a slippery and dangerous slope for Netanyahu.

His only consolation is that things are not much better on the other side either. Benny Ganz's insistence on declaring himself a candidate for Prime Minister forced Lapid to choose to sprout as much as possible, and this came directly at the expense of his political bloc's parties. It is sufficient for one of them not to pass the electoral threshold to be immediately thrown into the opposition.

Lapid's great advantage over his rivals is in his power of inertia. If there is no decisive result, he will remain the prime minister. The substantial disadvantage is that if there is, in fact, a government – it probably won't be headed by him. Ganz has a greater chance of forming a coalition if Netanyahu does not have 61.

Holiness and politics

It is a well-known tradition in Kfar Chabad to invite public personalities and dignitaries to "Second Hakafot" on the evening of Simchat Torah; a particularly massive and uplifting event, attended by crowds from all over the country who come to celebrate together with the local Hasidic residents. This year, considered the "Year of Hakhel," held after the Shmita [Sabbatical] year, in which the Rebbe instructed to hold as large gatherings as possible, an exceptionally large number of people came. According to a police estimate, about 15,000 people were present.

The number of politicians who wanted to attend the event also increased significantly. It is not certain that everyone knew that this was the Hakhel; what is certain is that they knew that there are elections in two weeks. Gantz or Justice Minister Gideon Sa'ar, who were both at the event, do not deceived themselves in to believing that they will receive the Chabad support, but they know that for other potential voters, their photos dancing with a Torah scroll and being given respect and praise from Chabad followers and rabbis have priceless value. Just before going to the polls.

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The world is convening at the United Nations and condemning Putin – threatening his wellbeing * But Israel is disputed on the appropriate manner of treating this situation – Lapid is sticking to a Western-Liberal line and Netanyahu is presenting a more complex and balanced position

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This symbolism repeats itself every year. In the most important week for the United Nations, thousands of participants in the General Assembly cannot take a walk to read the biblical words engraved in English opposite the glass building. For security reasons access is blocked to the site displaying the words from Isaiah, "They shall beat their swords into plowshares, and their spears into pruning hooks. Nation shall not lift up sword against nation, neither shall they learn war any more."

The UN is missing its opportunity to prevent wars, which is nothing new. These days Hezbollah is torturing UNIFIL soldiers, who should be preventing the organization from hoarding ammunition in southern Lebanon. And so, the ever-relevant words remain engraved, but have no relevance on the ground.

At this time, as Jews are praying for the future of the nations, the leaders of those countries gather in the unofficial capital of the world to participate in the event. The first row is filled with officials wearing colorful uniforms of entourages from all over the world. Rows of leaders are honking non-stop in order to find their way through the already busy streets. Here US Secretary of State Antony Blinken exits his black car. Passersby that watch the line of cars do not recognize him. Just a street down, dozens of exiled Iranians protest opposite the hotel of the Iranian president. "Ebrahim Raisi is a murderer," they shout.

What should have come out of this modern Towel of Babel is a message of peace. But, instead, the same failure that has characterized the UN since its inception remained as clear as ever, because the 77th General Assembly focused this year mainly on the additional war that the organization  failed to prevent – the one launched by Russian President Vladimir Putin in Ukraine on Feb. 24.

Putin did not attend the General Assembly. Had he done so, there would have obviously been major demonstrations against him. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy also did not attend in person, but was busy protecting his nation, and gave a recorded address instead, a precedent in UN history.

Although neither were present, most speeches focus on them. The clear and most significant influence of the war is that which began to be built between Russia, China and Iran, and the satellite states of each one. What is also interesting is that Chinese President Xi Jinping did not attend either. He did however participate at the Shanghai Cooperation Organization in Samarkand in Uzbekistan last week along with Raisi and Putin.

While Russia is trying to survive the war that it initiated, the West is cleaning up the rust and flexing its muscles for the crucial day. The US and the Europe Union are changing their energy policies. Germany and other European nations are rebuilding their military powers with incredibly investment (100 billion euros in Germany's case alone). Left-wing governments on the continent also understand that the belief that wars do not exist in the world anymore, is completely unrealistic.

In a world that has reorganized its geo-political status, Israel must also find its place. But here is a wide open gap that no one is talking about; between the political parties in Israel. In the seven months since Putin invaded Ukraine, former Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has not said one word condemning the Russian president or his actions. This is no coincidence. Netanyahu and his followers believe that both Israel interests, but also justice to some extent, require that Jerusalem remain on the fence.

So while the rest of the West is treating Putin as if he has taken the first steps towards a third world war, comparing him to Hitler, some of those close to Netanyahu understand, and even somewhat justify, the Russian leader.

In other words, it is obvious that Putin exaggerated by going out to war, and even more so considering the terrible war crimes committed by his soldiers. But these condemnations are heard only behind closed doors. Firstly, because Israel has diverse interests with Russia: freedom of action in Syria, the safety of the Jewish committee in the country, not pushing Moscow into the arms of Tehran, the fact that Jerusalem feels indebted to Moscow for returning the body of Zechariah Baumel while risking the live sof Russian soldiers, and, as happened toward the end of Barack Obama's term in office – the radical event where Israel needed Russian protection in the UN Security Council from the former US president who was not really fond of the Jewish state.

Secondly, the question of "justice," as much as it includes international politics. Those close to Netanyahu understand the rationale of the Russian president, who repeatedly warned the West against including Ukraine in the NATO military alliance. According to Putin, Ukraine joining NATO would be an existential threat for Russia, just as Iran's activities in Syria is an existential threat to Israel.

Putin cannot tolerate the thought that innovative ideas, such as democracy and freedom of expression will flourish among his neighbor. So he repeatedly warned the US against such a step. Unlike his predecessors, President Joe Biden ignored the warnings and gave NATO the green light to include Ukraine. Putin believed that he had no choice. He was right, but not wise, because he did not understand that he had fired the shot that started the war that has impacted the entire world.

The one who did understand this is Netanyahu, which is why he's kept quiet on the war. On the other hand, as he wins the election and becomes prime minister, he knows he will have to climb down the fence. Being loyal to such a position, Netanyahu wants to take a neutral and even supportive approach toward Russia. For this reason, in a survey held on Wednesday morning, he wanted to know how the public in Israel would react to such an unconventional approach.

"Do you agree or not agree to Benjamin Netanyahu calling for a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine, and asking Ukraine to initiate peace negotiations with Russia?" was one of the questions. The general opinion was clear: Netanyahu, who visited Ukraine in 2019 only after Zelensky repeatedly begged him to do so, has put the burden of consent to negotiations on the Ukrainian president, and not on Putin.

In total contrast to this approach, current prime minister Yair Lapid has no doubt where he places Israel. As the foreign minister as well, Lapid condemned Russia. "One has to be on the right side of history," he said, justifying aligning with the West.

Lapid believes that Israel is an inseparable part of the Western-liberal cluster of countries. He believes that Israel can only trust countries who contemplate moral considerations, which Netanyahu does not agree with. In a world where international organizations, headed by the United Nations, cannot keep the peace or ensure the upholding of morals, it is a case of the "survival of the fittest" and Israel cannot rely on Europe while antisemitism is still flowing through its veins. He believes that Israel is located on the world map as an East-West island. And the balance between these two approaches will be determined by the parliamentary elections on Nov. 7.

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The goal of the Conference on Governance and Personal Security, which took place on Monday, was to hold an orderly discussion about governability and sovereignty and make the issue an urgent one on the public agenda.

The conference was broadcast live on the daily's website and other digital platforms.

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Prime Minister Yair Lapid, cabinet ministers, and senior police officers took part in the event through speeches and various panels, in which they discussed important issues concerning personal security in Israel. One of the main topics to be raised at the conference will deal with agricultural crime and control over open spaces.

Lapid delivered the opening address, saying, "The state's first responsibility is to protect its citizens, their homes, property, and fields. This is the only issue on which there will be no compromises. If the State of Israel wants to be a nation of laws, it needs tools with which to enforce the law."

Lapid went on to say that "for years, the law enforcement has been neglected, starved, not provided with the tools it needs, to ensure that Israel is a safe country for its citizens," and stressed that "the time has come for a change in policy. We are going to place the personal security of Israeli citizens in the State of Israel at the top of our national priorities."

He continued, listing the various challenges that must be addressed. "Drivers must not continue to recklessly drive their cars wild on roads in the south; young women must not be murdered by family members; farmers must not suffer destruction and theft in their fields; businesses cannot tolerate gangs that specialize in protection; bids should never be handed under the table, and children should never be stabbed when they go out for the evening."

He continued: "Women must be exposed to sexual or family violence without there being a way to protect them. I don't accept this. I know you don't either, that's why you are part of HaShomer HaChadash, part of an organization, why you are people who step up to the plate and don't complain, but take action. HaShomer HaChadash was not established in a vacuum, but rather because the state did not do its job. It let the criminals run wild and did nothing. Now we are putting an end to this. Just as we restored deterrence against Gaza – we will restore deterrence against crime; against street gangs involved in domestic violence, against agricultural crimes, and against government corruption. You are the solution – committed and competent young people – who stand at the forefront of Israeli society. Fifty thousand volunteers who guard the lands and educate others to love the land. Your only obstacle is that we need many more youngsters like you and we need many more policemen. This is what the country needs most today: to strengthen the police, the rule of law; to strengthen all those who stand as a protective wall in order to secure the safeguarding of citizens."

Lapid said that Israel needs "5,000 more police officers, 26 more Border Guard reserve units, and 30,000 more volunteers in the Israeli National Guard, which will be based on the operational principles of HaShomer HaChadash. We need to expand urban police units – out of 257 civil authorities in Israel, there are only 75 urban policing units. We must expand urban policing to every community in Israel, and especially in the Arab society."

The prime minister continued:: "The government I head has secured 1,400 new positions in the last year – the highest number of new positions that the police has received in the last decade, but it is still not enough. The government has presided over the largest buildup of the conscripted Border Guard units, but even that is not enough. We are putting a multi-year plan for permanent increases on the table, to provide the State of Israel with a tough, effective and significantly larger law enforcement apparatus than it has today, with much more resources and much more effective ability to ensure law and order on our streets. Organized crime and violence cost the country billions of shekels every year in property damage and insurance from car accidents. Every shekel that is put into enforcement saves the country three shekels. Put 5,000 more policemen, 26 more Border Guard units and 30,000 more security guards on our streets, and within two years the state of security in Israel will change. Pay these people a proper salary and within a year, security in Israel will look totally different. Society is based on law and order; we secure it and it looks after us. Together with the Ministry of Public Security, together with you, this government will upgrade law enforcement. This is our goal. This is our mission. We will succeed. Thank you very much."

Yoel Zilberman, chairman and founder of HaShomer HaChadash, greeted the audience at the conference saying: "There is a danger that is greater than Iran, and that is our internal security. We see how racketeering is spreading like a pandemic, mass distribution of weapons, a state of rampage on the roads. We are currently predicting a collapse of personal security. We are talking about the basic contract between the state and each citizen, that the state will start protecting him or her. But each citizen has the feeling that his and her personal security has been decreasing, and this is in contrast to the IDF's defense of our borders. We want to see decision-makers at all levels understand that internal security is the most critical issue, regardless of which government is in power This is the main issue on which the government will be measured and on which it will focus."

At the start of the conference, Israel Hayom Editor-in-Chief Omer Lachmanovitch, said: "A country's degree of sovereignty is measured by its ability to strive to achieve its national goals. The biblical book of Numbers, after the census of the tribes in the desert, says: "The children of Israel shall encamp, each man by his own camp and each man by his division." The flag is not just a physical sign, rather it signifies presence, as well as personal and national security.

"One of the most important elements in governance is not only making good decisions but also putting them into action. Israel Hayom has been dealing with issues related to the lack of governance and lack of personal security in Israel in day-to-day life and emergency situations for a long time – raising the issue of forming a national guard, and the de facto choking of Jewish communities in the Galilee, as well as through the concerning involvement of Negev residents in fatal road accidents.

"Our goal at the conference is to create discussions that will lead to active endeavors. As Zionist and Israeli journalists, we have the responsibility to prioritize discussions on issues of local governance and we undertake to continue to do so also in the future, with the understanding that this is the raison d'etre of a Jewish and democratic state. I would like to thank our partners, HaShomer HaChadash, the panelists and interviewees, as well as Israel Hayom's journalists and commentators, who cover these important issues and present you with the most reliable information on all Israel Hayom platforms. In Samuel Beckett's "Waiting for Godot," Estragon says: 'Let's do nothing, It's much safer.' The current situation in Israel's cities, towns, and open spaces demands that we take action for the sake of governance and for the personal security of each and every one of the country's citizens."

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