This approach prevented his assassination until he was struck in his vehicle alongside three bodyguards on December 13, following multiple failed elimination attempts. One such effort unfolded in summer 2024, when the Israeli Air Force targeted a structure in the Shati camp – an area housing both a mosque and a school.

Saad handled diverse responsibilities within Hamas, spanning the organization's "civilian" infrastructure. Over three decades, he occupied a succession of critical positions directly linked to the October 7 massacre: operations chief, founder of the Nukhba (Hamas's elite commando force), naval force architect, and weapons production director. Throughout the war, he oversaw explosive manufacturing that claimed numerous IDF soldiers' lives. During the ceasefire, he orchestrated the restoration of the organization's strength.

"Generational transition"

Following his elimination, Israel Hayom has learned that Hamas is experiencing an accelerated "generational transition" due to dozens of senior operatives killed across two years. Today, scarce veteran figures populate the leadership, including "military wing head" Izz al-Din al-Haddad and intelligence director Mohammed Awda. They too face mounting responsibility portfolios. According to Asharq Al-Awsat, Awda was appointed commander of the northern Gaza Strip brigade. Al-Haddad himself managed the hostages dossier.

Consequently, the terrorist organization increasingly depends on junior terrorist commanders possessing minimal experience, restricted authority, and diminished capabilities. This dynamic threatens decision-making capacity and strategic planning.

Hamas has enlisted thousands of fresh terrorists throughout the conflict. Nevertheless, these recruits have only basic training, lacking experience and authority, and have marginal capabilities.

Yet alongside them, a hardened nucleus of veteran, proficient terrorists has endured. Therefore, Hamas sustains operations via emergency committees and apparatuses controlling the economy, transit, and education, while attempting to terrorize the population through executions and public prosecutions. Simultaneously, certain local clans demonstrate resistance.

Regarding the Palestinian population, Hamas' core supporter base has remained steadfast. Conversely, support for Hamas has declined according to multiple surveys. Furthermore, numerous Gazans exhibit passivity amid Gaza's humanitarian conditions, particularly during winter storms. Gaza has reported that at least 16 Palestinians have perished from weather-related damage thus far, including building wall collapses.

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Across all theaters, Israel has achieved significant gains following the blow it suffered on October 7. It has struck its enemies hard and, with American assistance, succeeded in forcing Hamas and Hezbollah into moves they had refused to take – releasing hostages while the IDF maintains its presence in the Strip, and ceasing fire from Lebanon as an expression of solidarity with Hamas, despite Israel's continued freedom of operation in Lebanon and ground presence at five points along the border.

However significant these achievements are, they do not guarantee sustained and strategically meaningful long-term change in the regional landscape. To achieve this goal – which means victory in the war – Hamas must be fully disarmed, and Hezbollah must either be disarmed or at minimum prevented from strengthening and returning to southern Lebanon.

Realizing these objectives is far more difficult than achieving the goals reached so far, because for Hamas and Hezbollah, this is no longer about paying a heavy price to ensure survival and protect strategic assets, but rather about making concessions of existential significance. This is because they require Hamas and Hezbollah to relinquish a central component of their identity and control over territory, and because such a move would amount to Hamas admitting that the October 7 attack was a mistake and accepting that, in Palestinian national memory, the attack that galvanized the Palestinian public will be recorded as a disaster and grave error.

The impression is that the American administration has not yet decided whether to back powerful Israeli force moves that would enable completing the collapse of Hamas, or to prefer, as it currently leans, to begin implementing phase two of the plan (perhaps even without waiting for the return of Ran Gvili's body), at least in the area under IDF control, without disarming Hamas. Each path faces numerous obstacles due to the plan's ambiguity, which requires agreement on small details, the parties' differing interpretations of the plan's intent, the multiplicity of parties meant to be involved, and above all – President Trump's eagerness to demonstrate progress and strengthen the message that the war has ended, even when conditions on the ground actually indicate difficulty in advancing the plan.

To avoid having to make a strategic decision between completing the war objectives and leveraging achievements so far to shape a better security reality for the coming years, versus avoiding an undesired confrontation with an especially friendly American president who operates from his own motivations – Israel must make every effort to convince Trump that backing Israel to complete the mission is also in his interest. Among other reasons, it could help expand the Abraham Accords. One way to do this is to create a broad internal Israeli front on this issue, beyond the government. After all, the hostage dispute is already behind us.

The writer is the head of the Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security.

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The president opened with a reference to the antisemitic attack that occurred during Hanukkah in Sydney, saying it was "an antisemitic attack, exactly what it is," and added that "all nations must stand together against the forces of radical Islamic terror." According to him, the US "joins in mourning the dead and prays for the speedy recovery of the wounded."

Trump then moved to sharp criticism of the American political system, warning of a profound shift in the balance of power. "The Jewish and Israeli lobby used to be the strongest in Washington. That's no longer the case. Today you have to be very careful," he said. According to him, "You have a Congress, especially the House of Representatives, that is becoming antisemitic," and added that there are members of Congress "who don't like Israel. They hate Israel." Trump noted that such a phenomenon would have been "unthinkable 15 years ago."

The president linked the growing antisemitism to the denial of the Oct. 7 Hamas attack. "There are people who deny it even happened – just like they deny the Holocaust. This didn't happen many years ago; this happened now," he said. According to him, he himself was exposed to footage from the attack, and said, "I saw the tapes. I wish I hadn't seen them." Trump emphasized that his administration will not allow the spread of such phenomena, but called on Jews in the US to be vigilant.

During the event, Dr. Miriam Adelson, publisher of Israel Hayom, was invited to the stage. Trump noted that Adelson contributed to his campaign, "indirectly and directly, $250 million," and described her as "an amazing woman, with a wonderful husband, a man who loved Israel." Adelson, in turn, recalled that she came to the Knesset in October specifically "with a scooter... just to hear you, I wanted to hear you live." She later noted that she recently spoke with attorney Alan Dershowitz, who raised with her the legal thing about "four more years," referring to the possibility of a third term for President Trump.

The president then quipped about Adelson, suggesting she offered to give him "another $250 million" if he ran for a third term.

Later in his speech, Trump sent a clear threat to Hamas. "If Hamas plays games, they will be in big trouble," he said, emphasizing that his administration acted decisively to return all the hostages, both living and fallen, and responded to the call of the families of fallen hostages. According to him, this was an effort that even he thought was impossible, but was completed.

Toward the end, the president addressed the Jewish audience directly and said, "You are protected. You are a special people." He concluded with a symbolic message for the holiday. "The Hanukkah story reminds us that light will always triumph over darkness."

Earlier, during a Hanukkah reception at the White House, US President Donald Trump hosted the Neutra and Alexander families, the parents of late Captain Omer Neutra, killed while held hostage by Hamas, and Staff Sergeant Edan Alexander, who was released from Hamas captivity and re-enlisted in the IDF.

According to Ronen Neutra, Omer's father, "President Trump spoke about the release of the hostages with emphasis on the fallen and called us to the stage, where we emphasized that there is still a fallen hostage, Ran Gvili, who must be returned."

Full disclosure: The Adelson family owns the company that is the primary shareholder in Israel Hayom. Dr. Miriam Adelson is the publisher of Israel Hayom.

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Ran's story of heroism began on the morning of October 7. He was at his home in Mitar on medical leave, with a broken shoulder and scheduled for surgery two days later, but he didn't hesitate for a moment when the attack began. "He left the house on his own initiative, dressed in uniform and a vest," his father, Itzik, said. "He wouldn't let his friends fight alone."

Ran drove out, equipped himself, and continued to the Gaza border region. He joined Lt. Col. Guy Madar, and together they operated near Kibbutz Alumim. The two stopped at the gas station at Sa'ad Junction, where they helped evacuate and rescue dozens of survivors from the Nova Festival, under fire and mortal danger.

Eliminated 14 terrorists, and was kidnapped

On his way to Alumim, Ran encountered a heavy ambush that included RPG fire. He was seriously wounded in his hand and leg, but continued fighting despite the injury. He treated himself using a tourniquet and took cover near a tree. Despite his condition, he engaged in close combat and eliminated 14 terrorists. Ran sent his friends warning messages with his location, and the last message was received around 11:00 AM. After his ammunition ran out, he was kidnapped while seriously wounded.

His friends from the Yasam (Israel Police Special Patrol Unit) who fought with him that day in Alumim continue to come to the family's rallies. "These are the guys who fought with Rani," Itzik said with pride. "They don't abandon him."

Two weeks later, the family received official confirmation of the kidnapping, along with a difficult photo showing Ran lying on a motorcycle in Gaza, wounded and captive in the hands of terrorists. "There's no other indication," the parents said. "Not from other hostages, not from stories. Rani was kidnapped alone."

Ran's heroism didn't begin on October 7. It started years earlier, at age 18, with an injury that defied all medical logic. In a fall during a training accident, he broke his femur – "one of the hardest bones to break," Talik said – but simply got up and walked out on his feet. At the hospital, he told his father it was "a small sprain." After a long surgery, the doctor announced that rehabilitation would take more than a year, and Ran would never return to being a combat soldier.

"Itzik and I breathed a sigh of relief," Talik admitted. But then Ran opened his eyes. "Listen very carefully," he told the doctor, "I'm returning to the same place I left off within four months, and you're going to sign off on it." The doctor didn't believe him. But four months later, after hours upon hours of physical therapy, he returned to service. And the doctor approved.

A chilling detail has emerged in recent months. In the months before his kidnapping, Ran watched a series about the Syrian captives. "He knew them by name," his mother described. His brother asked why he was watching something so sad, and Ran answered, "What do you understand? These are Israel's heroes!" That sentence now takes on an almost prophetic meaning. He knew the stories and became a hero himself, who an entire nation is waiting for.

"We were left alone, but not really"

The struggle to bring him home is being conducted almost entirely by the family alone. "There's no money," they said. "The Hostages and Missing Families Forum couldn't continue raising funds to continue the rally at the square, so we opened a crowdfunding campaign. It's not our thing. It's purely to continue the public struggle." The change in protest format, the move to Saturday night rallies in Meitar and at the Kashtot Junction – all of these didn't stem from choice but from necessity.

"We were left alone as we understand it, but not alone really – alone with you," Itzik said at the rally. "It's not so alone, it's together. I wish this were the last Saturday."

"Bringing Rani back is a consensus; everyone knows he needs to come home," the family said. "We need you now more than ever to make it clear to the world that we're not moving to any phase until Rani returns."

And the next phase is what frightens them more than anything – the transition to "phase 2" of the deal, whether under American pressure or for security reasons. "There's concern," Talik admitted. "We understand that the Palestinian Islamic Jihad and Hamas are working with us, and the Americans too. Working on Donald Trump. They're dragging out time. That's their interest. And the world must wake up."

The family doesn't hide the fear of the scenario that has hovered over them since day one. They hear the comparison to Ron Arad or Hadar Goldin a lot. "It's something we're afraid of without wanting to be," Talik said. "It's automatic; it's a fear that exists. We know the history."

At the same time, they emphasize that Hamas and the Palestinian Islamic Jihad organizations' claim that they "don't know where he is" simply doesn't make sense. "What, did they kidnap a cat and throw it to the bottom of a garbage bin?" they asked. "He's a soldier in uniform, he fought in the middle of a battle. It doesn't make sense that they don't know where he is. We know they're hiding him, and hiding him well."

And facing the doubt that settles in, they repeat their faith. "We haven't received a sign that he's alive from the IDF, and also no sign that he's not. He didn't disappear."

Ran, in the last Hanukkah he spent with the family, was himself, his smile, his altruism, his historical knowledge, and his good heart. "He's someone who loves people, someone who goes out first to protect and comes out last, the gatherer of everyone," the parents said.

"Rani is my son, but he's everyone's child," Itzik said. And now, they said, it's our turn to be his gatherer. "We need to unite in this message. We won't be able to recover – not us as a family and not the state – until this circle is closed. He went out to protect us, and now it's our turn to protect him. May we have a great miracle."

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For years, Saad topped Israel's target list, evading numerous assassination attempts until Saturday's successful strike. Together with Izz al-Din Haddad, who now leads Hamas' military apparatus in Gaza, he stood as the sole survivor among the organization's pre-war senior leadership and among the handful who knew the intimate details of Hamas' assault blueprint, which Israel designated "Wall of Jericho" (Hamas's operational code for the October 7 attack).

Israel justified Saad's elimination by pointing to his ongoing efforts to reconstitute Hamas' capabilities and an explosive device that injured two reserve soldiers near the southern Strip on Friday. Yet these explanations appear tailored for Washington's consumption: The authentic motivation boils down to a score Israel had to settle with him – or stated plainly, vengeance.

By Saturday evening, Hamas had yet to acknowledge Saad's death. The silence might reflect internal disarray, though questions remain whether the organization retains meaningful retaliatory capacity. Hamas has hemorrhaged most of its military strength alongside its military and civilian leadership throughout the war, leaving it organizationally shattered. Currently it channels its remaining resources toward consolidating control over the Strip's western sector, which stays under its authority. Israel presumably factored this weakness into its assassination calculus, which earned unanimous backing from the diplomatic-security establishment's uppermost echelons.

The singular gamble Israel appears to have accepted concerns the Washington administration. Saad's elimination provides Israel an opportunity to gauge President Donald Trump's temperature, for whom the Gaza accord stands as his first presidential term's marquee diplomatic accomplishment. Trump recently pressed Israel to throttle back its Gaza operations, affording space for the agreement's advancement; if he refrains from erupting now, Israel can interpret his silence as tacit authorization to persist in eliminating Gaza's senior hierarchy, mirroring its Lebanon approach.

Hamas will naturally strive to derail this trajectory, mobilizing its Qatari and Turkish sponsors hoping they'll persuade Trump to muzzle Israel. This contest for the president's attention – and by extension his policy direction – will dictate Gaza's near-term landscape. Israel seeks maximum postponement of transitioning to Phase 2, apprehensive it will mandate further withdrawals absent fundamental shifts in Gaza's circumstances. It partially attributes delays to Hamas' failure to return fallen hostage Ran Gvili, with Hamas contending that Israeli intelligence leads proved fruitless in pinpointing his location.

Three unpalatable paths

Meanwhile, Americans wrestle with assembling a multinational contingent to shoulder Gaza's security burden and execute its demilitarization. Simultaneously, mobilizing the billions required for the Strip's reconstruction proceeds at glacial speed: precisely as before, a chasm yawns between verbal pledges and written commitments. Trump must deploy his full leverage extracting promised funding – including from prosperous nations, principally Saudi Arabia – lest he grow tempted to embrace Qatari financing once more.

This tangle poses difficulties for Israel by generating three unpalatable paths. First, the grandiose promises yield nothing and Hamas continues governing overtly. Second, Americans declare victory prematurely, accepting a phantom governing structure masking Hamas' continued dominance. Third, the accord disintegrates entirely, forcing Israel back into comprehensive Gaza combat – bearing its physical, economic and diplomatic toll.

Israel will likely endeavor provisionally, at least publicly, to afford the agreement implementation opportunities as Trump desires. The assassination will be rationalized, as noted, through immediate operational necessity, simultaneously insisting Hamas cease its ongoing violations. Meanwhile, deliberately avoiding excessive administration irritation and projecting restraint, Israel shelved plans Friday to strike Hezbollah installations in Lebanon.

Israel maintained the scheduled operation was aborted because the Lebanese Armed Forces requested (and obtained) the intended target and pledged to address it independently. This signals encouragingly that threats of escalating military pressure toward renewed warfare are producing results, propelling the Lebanese Armed Forces toward action. Prudence nevertheless counsels withholding definitive conclusions: presently the probability of another Hezbollah confrontation remains elevated, merely deferred temporarily.

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The declaration, issued on the war's 800th day through a coordinated effort with October Council (organization representing October 7 families), arrives as most abducted Israelis have returned from Gaza. Among those who signed: former captives Yarden Bibas, Arbel Yehoud, Luis Har, Gadi Moshe Mozes, and Amit Soussana, joined by scores of bereaved relatives.

"We demand truth. We demand justice. We demand accountability," the letter declared. "If you refuse to accept responsibility and convene such a commission as the majority of Israelis demand, vacate your positions and allow the people to choose."

The complete text: "Investigate everything"

"We – the freed hostages, families of survivors, relatives of slain captives, and those whose loved ones were seized alive only to be murdered in captivity – stand unified behind one unambiguous demand: the formation of an independent state commission of inquiry.

"Such a commission represents the sole mechanism capable of examining without intimidation, without favoritism, and without constraints the complete sequence of breakdowns that preceded the day of failure, events that transpired during the catastrophe, and every decision-making procedure concerning the hostages and war management.

"This commission must examine every dimension of that day, encompassing the disintegration of defense and intelligence operations, the unanswered pleas for assistance, the hours-long desertion of Gaza border communities, and the forsaking of civilians and soldiers to the nightmare that consumed Israeli soil.

"Equally critical, it must scrutinize developments since October 7: How authorities reached decisions during hostage negotiations, what caused recurring postponements, how diplomatic and military leadership coordinated, what public officials stated and enacted and how those choices affected captives' survival, their physical and psychological welfare, the destiny of those abducted alive but killed in captivity, and the extended period before deceased hostages reached their families. This, 799 days later with one slain hostage's body still detained – Ran Gvili.

"A commission of inquiry cannot serve political ends. It cannot include individuals who themselves require investigation. It must maintain transparency, professionalism, and complete authority to mandate evaluations, question witnesses, examine records, and deliver definitive findings including implementation powers. Only such an entity can uncover the full truth, not merely convenient revelations. Truth is not a privilege, but Israel's obligation to its citizens. Such truth provides the foundation for mending Israeli society, rebuilding confidence in governance, and constructing greater security for coming generations.

"Without truth-seeking, we cannot guarantee the October 7 catastrophe will never recur, and without accepting responsibility, we cannot properly commemorate those who perished, those who suffered abduction, and those remaining in Gaza.

"We challenge Israel's government to cease avoiding, cease postponing, cease concealing, and immediately authorize a comprehensive state commission of inquiry. Passing time exacts severe costs – corrupted testimony, suppressed evidence, incapacity to pursue truth, comprehend breakdowns, and counter falsehoods. This constitutes an essential, ethical, and fundamental action in democratic governance. We demand truth. We demand justice. We demand accountability. And we demand it immediately.

"If you do not intend to take responsibility and establish such a commission as demanded by the majority of the people, vacate your positions and let the people decide."

Those who signed the demand

Former captive Yarden Bibas, widower of Shiri Bibas and bereaved father of Ariel Bibas and Kfir Bibas, murdered in Hamas detention; freed hostage Arbel Yehoud; freed hostage Clara Marman; freed hostage Shiri Weiss, mother of freed hostage Noga Weiss and widow of slain hostage Ilan Weiss; freed hostage Shani Goren; freed hostage Ariel Cunio; freed hostage Sharon Aloni Cunio, mother of freed hostages Ema and Yuly Cunio and wife of freed hostage David Cunio.

Released captives David Cunio and Sagui Dekel Chen; freed hostage Daniel Aloni, mother of freed hostage Emilia Aloni; freed hostage Amit Soussana; freed hostage Yafa Adar; freed hostage Fernando Marman; freed hostage Raz Ben Ami; freed hostage Ohad Ben Ami; freed hostage Luis Har; freed hostage Ditza Heiman; freed hostage Margalit Mozes; freed hostage Keren Munder, mother of freed hostage Ohad Munder and daughter of freed hostage Ruth Munder and deceased captive Abraham Munder, killed in Hamas detention; freed hostage Gabriela Leimberg and mother of freed hostage Mia Leimberg; freed hostage Raya Rotem; freed hostage Norlin Babadilla; freed hostage Agam Goldstein; freed hostage Chen Almog Goldstein; Renana Gome Yaakov, mother of freed hostages Or Yaakov and Yagil Yaakov; Einav Zangauker, mother of freed hostage Matan Zangauker; Lishay Lavi, wife of freed hostage Omri Miran; Hirut Nimrodi, mother of slain hostage Tamir Nimrodi.

Rishel Tzarfati, mother of deceased captive Ofir Tzarfati; Esther and Oren Buchshtab, parents of freed hostage Yagev Buchshtab; Anat Angrest, mother of freed hostage Matan Angrest; Nofar Buchshtab, sister of freed hostage Yagev Buchshtab; John and Rachel Goldberg-Polin, parents of slain hostage Hersh Goldberg-Polin; Oksana Lobanov, mother of Alex Lobanov, killed in Hamas detention; Nira Sarusi, mother of Almog Sarusi, killed in Hamas detention; Ruby Chen, father of deceased captive Itay Chen; Eli and Shira Albag, parents of freed hostage Liri Albag; Asnat Peri, widow of Haim Peri, killed in Hamas detention; Asif and Gal Goren, children of Mia Goren, killed in Hamas detention; Tal Shani, mother of freed hostage Amit Shani; Orly Gilboa, mother of freed hostage Daniella Gilboa; Amir and Mirav Daniel, parents of deceased captive Oz Daniel; Reuma Arusi Tarshansky, mother of freed hostage Gali Tarshansky; Nira Sharabi, widow of slain hostage Yossi Sharabi, killed in Hamas detention.

Orna and Ronen Neutra, parents of Omer Neutra; Boaz, son of captive Arie Zalmanowicz, killed in Hamas detention; Irina Ariev, mother of freed hostage Karina Ariev; Dafna Shay Heiman, daughter of freed hostage Ditza Heiman; Maayan Sherman, mother of Ron Sherman, killed in Hamas detention; Ronen and Orna Neutra, parents of slain hostage Omer Neutra; Yuval Danzig, son of deceased captive Alex Danzig, killed in Hamas detention; Dvora Idan, mother of slain hostage Tsachi Idan, killed in Hamas detention; Ayelet Svatitzky, sister of deceased Nirim resident Roi Popplewell and sister of Nadav Popplewell, abducted and killed in captivity, and daughter of freed hostage Hanna Peri; Dana Or, mother of freed hostage Liam Or and sister of slain hostage Dror Or; Talma Atzili, mother of deceased captive Aviv Atzili; Ram and Guy Metzger, sons of Yoram Metzger, killed in detention, and freed hostage Tami Metzger; Sharon Lifshitz, daughter of Oded Lifshitz, killed in detention, and freed hostage Yocheved Lifshitz; Sharon, sister of Eden Yerushalmi, killed in detention; Yael Adar, mother of slain hostage Tamir Adar; Rani Goldin, brother of deceased captive Oren Goldin; Dalit Oron, mother of slain hostage Idan Shtivi; Efrat Avsker Yahalomi, sister of deceased captive Ohad Yahalomi, killed in Hamas detention; Shahar Levy, son of slain hostage Eitan Levy; Nisan Kalderon, brother of freed hostage Ofer Kalderon and uncle of freed hostages Sahar and Erez; Yitzhak Horn, father of freed hostages Yair Horn and Eitan Horn; Lee Segal, sister of freed hostage Keith Segal.

Yonatan Dekel-Chen, father of freed hostage Sagui Dekel-Chen; Yoav and Yonit Engel, parents of freed hostage Ofir Engel; Rotem Cooper, daughter of deceased captive Amiram Cooper, killed in Hamas detention; Chen Avigdori, husband of freed hostage Sharon Avigdori and father of freed hostage Noam Avigdori; Moshe Katz, father of freed hostage Doron Katz, abducted with daughters Raz and Aviv; Avital Kirsht, mother of freed hostage Rimon Kirsht; Aviram Meir, relative of freed hostage Almog Meir Jan; Maayan Segal-Koren, five of whose relatives survived detention, alongside scores of additional freed hostages and relatives.

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Trump said the council would be composed of leaders of the world's most influential countries. He added that "everyone wants to be part of the council".

When White House reporters asked, regarding the Gaza plan, when an announcement could be expected on the council's leadership structure, he replied that the move would take place early next year. According to Trump, the Gaza Peace Council will be "one of the most legendary councils ever."

"We did not think of it at first", Trump said, "but it will be led by the most important countries. It was not planned this way. We thought we would receive very important people who do this sort of thing for a living, but the candidates now include kings, presidents and prime ministers. They all want to be on the Peace Council."

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"The genocide in Gaza has caused the killing of more than 70,000 people. This constitutes a grave violation of the values in the Universal Declaration of Human Rights. Unfortunately, the injustices in Gaza and the occupied Palestinian territories continue despite all the efforts of the international community," Erdoğan charged, according to statements quoted by the Turkish news agency.

The Turkish leader further emphasized that "the rehabilitation of Gaza, which has been turned into a pile of rubble, is a shared responsibility that rests on the shoulders of all humanity toward the Palestinians."

Meanwhile, Erdoğan addressed the domestic situation in his country, stating, "We will first achieve the goal of a Turkey without terrorism, and then, with God's help, we will announce the goal of a region without terrorism, based on development, solidarity, cooperation, and peace."

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Gazans extracted explosives from land mines, mixed them with improvised substances and used hollow metal pipes or anything else they could find. Much of this work took place in garages and workshops. In Gaza, the first batches of propellant were made at home from sugar and chemical fertilizer. Later, metalworkers began adding stabilizing fins made of steel sheet. The same process is now taking place in Judea and Samaria, with one crucial difference: unlike Gaza at the time, the IDF and the Shin Bet are physically present on the ground, both operationally and in intelligence gathering.

After what happened in Gaza, there is a clear understanding, at least regarding Judea and Samaria, that no one will do this work for Israel—not the US, not international forces, not an Arab multinational force and not the Palestinian Authority. You can "kill it when it's small" only if you are there. That is what the IDF and the Shin Bet are trying to do, and often succeeding at, in the face of efforts by Hamas and by Iran to turn these improvised rockets into a meaningful threat, just as Gaza did until October 7.

Judea and Samaria, at least as far as we known, is being handled. The problem is still, and once again, Gaza. Israel's decision to allow a foreign force into the Strip, a force that will de facto bear responsibility for counterterrorism, or part of that responsibility, shows that we still have not fully recovered from the mindset that prevailed until October 6, 2023.

While in Gaza Israel was burned by a boiling reality, in Judea and Samaria the approach is cautious and cold. Yet in post-war Gaza Israel appears to be repeating the same mistake. Rockets are once again being made there, only now with far greater experience. The Gazans who once used these weapons will not hesitate to do so again the moment the opportunity serves them.

Israel's success in preventing Jenin and Tulkarem from developing a real rocket threat is the direct result of complete freedom of action for the IDF and the Shin Bet, with no restrictions. Preventing Gaza from rebuilding a new rocket and missile arsenal depends on Israel maintaining the same freedom of action inside Gaza, both within the "yellow line" security perimeter and beyond it. This is what Israel must insist on with President Donald Trump and his team. If Israel has not secured such operational and intelligence freedom from the US, then it is in trouble. Phase two must not move forward even a millimeter unless this guarantee is in place.

Run through the images in your mind of Sderot and other communities around Gaza, where residents spent years racing to shelters or lying on the ground several times a week as rockets whistled overhead and exploded nearby. That memory makes clear how essential this is. The rockets revealed in Tulkarem serve not only as a warning regarding Judea and Samaria, but also as a reminder about Gaza. The rocket threat from Gaza may have diminished dramatically, but it has not been eliminated and Gazans are trying and will continue trying to rebuild it.

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The footage joins a series of incidents indicating growing friction between the IDF and armed forces in Syria. On Monday, the IDF reported that during operations in the Quneitra area in southern Syria, a disturbance developed in which several suspects approached the forces and posed a threat to them. IDF forces initiated a suspect arrest procedure, during which they fired into the air for distancing purposes, and after the suspects did not distance themselves, forces fired at the lower body of two central instigators, and the disturbance dispersed.

Meanwhile, footage circulated on social media in recent days illustrates how significant the friction between the IDF and armed forces in Syria has become. A convoy of vehicles filled with armed fighters loyal to al-Sharaa was seen passing by an IDF vehicle, with soldiers watching the passing convoy.

About two weeks ago, an IDF force from the reserve brigade "Tip of the Spear" encountered intense exchanges of fire with terrorists in the village of Beit Jinn in southern Syria, during an operation to arrest suspects from the "Al-Jama'a Al-Islamiyya" organization who promoted terror plans against Israel. In the battle, during which air support was provided to the forces, six fighters were wounded – three seriously, one moderately, and two lightly. The IDF completed the operation successfully, all suspects were arrested, and several terrorists were eliminated.

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