The global arms race does not pass over the Middle East. Iran, Saudi Arabia, Syria, Lebanon, and even Egypt seek new military technology to strengthen their capabilities. Israel is preparing itself for new threats, such as the hypersonic missile Iran claims it is developing, as well for technology almost already considered "old" – UAVs and precision-guided missiles.

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Earlier this month, Rafael Advanced Defense Systems presented its answer to the hypersonic missiles Iran claims it is developing. Photos of the supposed missile were published in Tehran. Yet, people in Israel do not believe Iran already possesses this technology, which does not prevent it from arming itself accordingly.

Meanwhile, in the Persian Gulf, Saudi Arabia demands the US' commitment to arms deals, its authorization to develop a civilian nuclear program, and its security guarantees against Iran. Iran's exhibit of its development of missiles and UAVs that are already being tested in Ukraine, along with Saudi Arabia's demands, is causing Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, and Egypt to equip themselves as well in what appears to be an arms race well underway. Its stars are Iran and Israel, but their surrounding states are also preparing themselves for the worst.

Iran is arming the region

Brigadier General (Res.) Yossi Kuperwasser, head of the research division in the IDF Military Intelligence Division and a senior researcher at the Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs (JCPA), said to Israel Hayom that "a significant arms race is taking place in the region, and the prominent state in this race is Iran, which is manufacturing weapons on its own using technology it has received from foreign sources. The Iranians are making a significant effort to equip themselves with advanced missiles – and therefore, the variety of missiles they are developing is wide. Even Russia is interested in procuring these missiles. The Iranians have shown their ability to manufacture cruise missiles and have improved their accuracy over time – this is a threat that we cannot take lightly."

Iran's arming of itself projects itself all the way to Hezbollah in the north, which possesses tens of thousands of Iranian missiles and is now attempting to turn them into precision-guided missiles. The military activity in Syria that foreign sources attribute to Israel is meant to prevent this very arming attempt, which according to Kuperwasser, is supposed to "greatly disturb Israel." The researcher notes that alongside the Iranian arms race (and we have not yet said a word about nuclear weapons), even countries that are considered pragmatic are operating in this manner: "Saudi Arabia, Egypt, the UAE, and Qatar are conducting accelerated arming efforts that are not directed at us, but considering the stability's horizon and possible change in the region, it is possible that Israel will show concern even in a case such as this."

Even Doctor Yehoshua Kalisky, a senior researcher at the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS) near Tel Aviv University, warns us about the intensification happening around us: "Even today, Saudi Arabia possesses advanced reconnaissance planes, and it demands more. These tribes may fight amongst themselves, but what ultimately unites them is their hatred towards Israel."

Doctor Kalisky divides arming efforts into several layers: conventional, semi-conventional, and nonconventional (nuclear). "The conventional arms race does, in fact, stem from what is happening between Russia and Ukraine. Countries are seeing that a war can be won with simple and relatively cheap weapons. The paradigm has changed – no more tank convoys, but rather more UAVs and drones that can stop entire convoys," explains Doctor Kalisky. "This is also an arms race regarding missiles, which are relatively simple to operate. Airports and trained pilots are unnecessary; the missiles are straightforward to operate and only require a small team of people."

The Hypersonic Threat

Doctor Kalisky says regarding the hypersonic missiles: "Anyone who watches the battlefield in Ukraine sees that these missiles work and that their potential to cause destruction and fear is great. This missile can travel from Iran to Israel in about 3-4 minutes. This is terrifying." Today, only Russia and China definitely possess missiles such as these, and there are contrasting opinions on whether Iran has them as well.

Kuperwasser: "Regarding the hypersonic missiles – the US Congress is trying to impose international limitations or even a treaty on them, but in the meantime, certain countries continue to pursue the development of these missiles, such as Russia, China, and the United States. Regarding Iran, according to the pictures we have seen until now, it seems that the Iranians do not yet have hypersonic missiles, but we must always be worried and not mock them. Even if it is not real, our enemy has capabilities. Iran is a missile superpower, and even if the missiles do not work now, we need to take this threat seriously."

The answer to the UAVs

In Israel, the security industries do sit by idly. Israel's innovations place Israel at the forefront of technology, and security industries find their way to countries worldwide, as was seen just this week at the Paris Air Show. In a conversation with Ariel Caro, senior vice president of marketing and business development at Rafael Advanced Defense Systems, he describes this arms race from an economic perspective. "Our industries already have the solutions to the wide variety of threats the world is beginning to face. One example is the Multi-Layered, Integrated Multi-Domain Air and Missile Defense Array – from the UAV level the entire world is waking up to after Ukraine, to the Iron Dome and the adaptation of anti-drone laser weapons, which Israel is leading globally."

Even the "David's Sling" system, used in Operation Shield and Arrow, intrigues the world. Caro explains: "Israel is taking advantage of its technological advantage. When you develop defense systems, you do not develop them only for the current threats you face; you must be several steps ahead of the next threat. We are looking ten years into the future and seek to provide solutions for Israel and export them before we encounter the threat."

Arming or deterrence?

Regarding the question of Israeli deterrence of Hezbollah, Kuperwasser says: "At this time, Hezbollah is deterred from carrying out an all-out military attack, but is it deterred from taking limited measures such as allowing the Palestinians to continue arming themselves? Less so. We are paying the price for the hesitation we have shown in the Israel-Lebanon gas deal. This was a move that strengthened Hezbollah's sense of power.

"We need to create deterrence and not attack Lebanon warehouse by warehouse; there is no end to this. We must occasionally demonstrate our capabilities – launching satellites into space, etc. However, the chances of us being dragged into a campaign are not great because our enemies know what we are capable of; Nasrallah is hiding in a bunker to this day.

"Hezbollah has between 120 and 150 thousand missiles, many precision-guided. They have great and dangerous potential. Lebanon is an Iranian proxy that will be ready for action whenever told to be. In contrast, Syria does not pose a significant threat because it is divided and has an outdated army."

Regarding the knowledge of missiles in the Gaza Strip that is also worming its way into Samaria, Doctor Kalisky says that "the missile knowledge in the Gaza Strip is Iranian that made its way there via smuggling and experts, and the missiles are manufactured using lathes. We will likely see steep-trajectory fire towards Afula and other communities in the north. These things have happened in the past. In the 1970s, Katyusha rockets were launched toward Petach Tiqwa from the Jordan Valley, and one person was killed. Our control of Judea and Samaria leads us to the missile's designers and manufacturers, and at the moment is thwarting this threat."

One of the prominent fields of the arms race is the UAV. The Iranians are developing many kinds of UAVs which Russia procures for its war with Ukraine. According to Kuperwasser, "the Iranians have already proved their capabilities in this field in the attacks on the Saudi oil facilities in 2019. We have a good solution to this threat – developing anti-drone laser weapons and advanced interception methods.

 "A real scenario"

According to Caro, Israel's innovations are in high demand by European countries, who see the battlefield right next to their homes: "The Russia-Ukraine war made it clear to them that a scenario of war on European soil is real, and that they are lacking in the operational sense. They need a technological advantage, which Israel has, and there is a significant increase in demand.

"Rafael Advanced Defense Systems has specialized in precise and high-quality electro-optic oriented arming for many years. Our innovations are required also because of the large distances – in Europe, there is demand for Spike missiles and other similar systems, and the Paris Air Show is a platform for exposing these capabilities to many clients."

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Earlier this month, I went out to dinner in Baku with a good local friend – a businessman whose knowledge of the region is superb. It did not take long for our conversation to turn on Iran. He knows Iran well; he speaks Farsi and understands the Iranian state of mind. "Iran is a tragedy for which we are all going to pay," he said.

I asked him to explain and he said that most Iranians detest their regime, whose only support is from the poor who get brainwashed – very much like the case of Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in Gaza. They live in remote and small communities, whereas in Tehran there is a clear majority against the ayatollahs.

"This is a reign of terror: The people are terrorized by the regime, and the regime is scared of the people."

The inner Iranian tragedy is only part of the picture. He considers the most troubling part to be the overall impact of the Iranian tragedy on the region – Israel included. "You have a problem," he stated, "you think tactically, about tomorrow; the Iranians think strategically decades into the future. You have to start mimicking their thinking."

He went on to explain how Azerbaijan is a predominantly Shiite country that is at the same time secular. THe Iranians tried to have their version of Shiite Islam take over just like they did in Lebanon and have been trying to do the same in Syria (while converting the Sunnis). They also wanted to set up madrasas and mosques in Azerbaijan. These meddling efforts were viewed with scorn by President Ilham Aliyev and he asked them to cease this activity. They listened – and went on to continue as they were. After he asked them again and they did not relent, he had had it with them – and made sure to take swift action to end this. "If he had not acted this way, they would have gradually crept in and would have ultimately threatened his regime. He understood that they must be nipped in the bud.'

Strategic alliance

Azerbaijan and Iran are almost joined at the hip: Iran has some 30 million Azeris (they are the largest minority there and exceed the actual number that live in Azerbaijan). Practically all Azeris ave relatives on both sides of the border; the food is also very similar, as is the language: Azerbaijani sounds like a fusion of Farsi and Turkish. But there is no love lost between the two countries.

Iran, as noted above, sees its northern neighbor through the prism of its imperialistic ambitions, eliciting a backlash from Baku. Iran has been concerned over Azerbaijan's close ties with Israel, especially on military and intelligence matters. In the past, it has issued a clear demand to Baku to sever those ties,only to be met with a categorical rejection. In fact, the opposite reaction soon emerged: The ties between Israel and Azerbaijan are only growing closer. The recent opening of the Azerbaijani Embassy in Israel attests to that.

A major breakthrough in relations with Israel (and the subsequent distancing from Iran) was the Second Nagorno-Karabakh War in 2020. Israel was by Baku's side, winning great respect in the country. Iran supported Armenia and lost three times: first, because it supported Azerbaijan's enemies; second, because it lied about it; and third, because it was on the losing side. As a result, and also because of the outbreak of the coronavirus pandemic that year and its impact on Iran, Azerbaijan closed the border shut. Currently, only visa-holders are allowed to cross north, and under strict conditions.

For Israel, Azerbaijan is a strategic partner. First and foremost, this is because of its oil. Azerbaijan supplies some 70% of Israel's oil consumption. The second is security: The defensive needs of Azerbaijan due to the threats posed by Iran and Armenia and the rising challenges from Russia and Turkey have had it invest much of its petrol dollars in sophisticated weapon systems and naturally turned to Israel to see this through. Israel has sold Baku over the past decades a whole host of offensive and defensive weapons systems, as well as technological know-how that give it the qualitative edge. The third reason is the mutual desire to translate warm relations into other avenues of collaboration. During his visit to Baku several weeks ago, President Isaac Herzog spoke about joint ventures in agriculture, aerospace, tourism, energy, and other fields. Israel, of course, has another vested interest in cultivating relations with Azerbaijan: Iran. Iran has tried time and again to target Israelis on Azerbaijani soil, but these plots were frustrated. Foreign media reported that Israel also uses Baku as a staging ground to launch operations in Iran. Moreover, these foreign reports claim that if Israel were to launch an attack on Iran's nuclear sites, it would do so from Azerbaijan or pass through it.

Herzog dealt with the Iranian issue because of the media. The issue came up during his visit with his counterpart and the senior Azerbaijani officials, but only as an afterthought. Israel's president does not devise a strategy on Iran and definitely does not oversee the operational aspects. Israel's security agencies know how to interact with the locals; as for strategy – Israel first has to decide what it wants before it exports it to the world.

This is a cardinal matter that also came up during my conversation over dinner. The Iranians are galloping forward in their nuclear program, in their missile development, in exporting the revolution and terrorism. Israel has been sleeping , too busy with the domestic strife over judicial reform and a whole host of other distractions that come up on a weekly basis in the Knesset and the cabinet. This is indeed a tragedy: If Israel doesn't get it act together quickly and set its priorities straight and match them with a clear working plan – it could one day wake up to find it is already too late. One could not be unimpressed after watching Herzog in action. He is in his element on the world stage, and this is all the more impressive since he had not previously met the Iranian counterpart and had never visited Azerbaijan. The ease at which he made the Azerbaijani president into his friend was jaw-dropping.

Herzog on all fronts

Herzog today is one of Israel's most valuable assets, which is clearly noticeable in the way the relations with Turkey are properly maintained, as well as with other regional players. This is doubly important with regard to the ties with Washington, on all aspects – from the Biden administration to the pro-Israel lobby. With the White House showing a cold shoulder toward the Israeli government, the president has become a senior channel to preserve and maintain vital ties.

Herzog has been invited to visit Washington in honor of Israel's 75th anniversary but  has so far not gone, ostensibly because of scheduling reasons. That may be only partially true: It is likely that the president doesn't appear spiteful towards Prime Minister Benjamin NEtanyahu, who has yet to receive an invite. After all, Herzog has until April 2024 to celebrate the special occasion.

Herzog has in recent weeks avoided long trips, and the visit to Baku ended after a day so that he could return to Israel and continue mediating the judicial reform negotiations. He has projected guarded optimism and tells his surroundings that what has been reported is ridden with spins and interests. Inside, he claims, the talks are substantive and serious. Both sides are fully aware of what failure would mean. .

Let's hope the president is right. If a deal ultimately emerges, Israel would be able to focus on the big things: the economy, domestic security, foreign relations – and Iran. From Baku, a stone's throw from Tehran, it was clear how serious and resolved the IRanians are. Too bad we can't say the same about Israel.

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Iran's Revolutionary Guards Corps fired more than a dozen surface-to-surface ballistic missiles, the official IRNA news agency reported on Friday.

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The report said the IRGC fired 16 missiles during an ongoing major military exercise across the country's south. It said the name of missiles were Emad, Ghadr, Sejjil, Zalzal, Dezful and Zolfaghar and that their range is from 350 to 2,000 kilometers (220 to 1250 miles). The short-range and medium-range missiles, Iran has said, can reach US bases in the region as well as archenemy Israel.

It said the missiles successfully hit one target at the same time as 10 drones simultaneously hit their targets. State TV showed missiles launching in the desert.

State television showed missiles flattening a target which resembled Israel's Dimona nuclear reactor at the conclusion of the exercises on Friday.

"Through a simulation of the Dimona atomic facilities, the Revolutionary Guards successfully practiced attacking this critical center of the Zionist regime in its missile exercise," the semi-official news agency Tasnim said.

"These exercises had a very clear message: a serious, real ... warning to threats by the Zionist regime's authorities to beware of their mistakes," IRGC chief Maj. Gen. Hossein Salami said on state TV.

Maj. Gen. Mohammad Hossein Bagheri, the chief of staff of Iran's Armed Forces, said the planned drill was an answer to Israel's recent "massive but pointless threats" to Iran.

Bagheri said, "This was a tiny part of hundreds of missiles that can hit any hostile target simultaneously."

Israel has long seen Iran's nuclear program as a threat and seeks a harder line by the US and international community. Iran insists its nuclear program is peaceful.

During the second day of the drill on Tuesday, Iran launched cruise missiles, too.

The IRGC in the past has said it has cruise missiles with ranges of 1,000 kilometers (620 miles). It also has missiles that range up to 2,000 kilometers (1,250 miles).

From time to time, Iran holds military exercises, saying they are aimed at improving the readiness of its forces and testing new weapons.

The five-day annual exercise that began on Monday came days after the breakup of talks to revive Tehran's nuclear deal with world powers. Iran has accelerated its nuclear advances as negotiations to return to the accord struggle to make headway. The talks will resume on Monday.

Former US President Donald Trump pulled the United States out of the nuclear deal and re-imposed crushing sanctions on Iran in 2018 . Tehran has since started enriching uranium up to 60% purity – a short technical step from the 90% needed to make an atomic bomb.

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Iran's paramilitary Revolutionary Guard on Tuesday fired cruise missiles during a major military exercise across the country's south, media reported.

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The semiofficial Tasnim news agency, believed to be close to the Guard, did not specify the type and range of the missiles. But it said five cruise missiles and an unspecified number of attack drones successfully hit their targets.

Later, state TV showed the launch of the missiles, flight of drones and a ship that was exploded after frogmen planted mines on it.

The Guard's navy chief Gen. Ali Reza Tangsiri told state TV that his forces managed a coordinated war game across the coasts of Iran, from near the borders of Iraq to the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow gateway for 20% of the world's traded oil.

He said the drill has a message of "security, peace and friendship" to the regional nations.

The Guard in the past has said it has cruise missiles with ranges of 1,000 kilometers (620 miles). It also has missiles that range up to 2,000 kilometers (1,250 miles), more than enough to reach archenemy Israel and US military bases in the region.

The five-day annual exercise that began on Monday came days after the breakup of talks to revive Tehran's nuclear deal with world powers. Iran has accelerated its nuclear advances as negotiations to return to the accord struggle to make headway.

From time to time, Iran holds military exercises, saying they are aimed at improving the readiness of its forces and testing new weapons.

Last month, Iran's military began its annual war games in a coastal area of the Gulf of Oman.

In 2018, former President Donald Trump pulled the United States out of the nuclear deal and re-imposed crushing sanctions on Iran. Tehran has since started enriching uranium up to 60% purity – a short technical step from the 90% needed to make an atomic bomb.

Iran insists that its nuclear program is peaceful. But the country's steps away from its obligations under the 2015 accord have alarmed Israel and other world powers. Israel has repeatedly threatened unilateral action against Iran's nuclear program.

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Israel is rallying global action against Iran over an attack on an Israeli-managed tanker off Oman last week but is capable of responding on its own if necessary, Prime Minister Naftali Bennett said on Tuesday.

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The United States, Britain and Israel blamed Iran for the suspected drone strike on Thursday in which two crew members, a Briton and a Romanian, were killed. Tehran denies any involvement.

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken predicted a "collective response" to the incident, which British Prime Minister Boris Johnson described as an "outrageous attack on commercial shipping".

Standing alongside military generals during a tour of Israel's northern border with Syria and Lebanon, Bennett said Israel had shared intelligence with the United States, Britain and others tying Iran to the attack.

"We are working to rally the world, but at the same time we also know to act alone," Bennett said.

"Iran already knows the price we exact when someone threatens our security. The Iranians need to understand that it is impossible to sit placidly in Tehran and ignite the entire Middle East from there. That's over."

Iran said on Monday it would respond promptly to any threat against its security.

Iran and Israel have exchanged accusations of carrying out attacks on each other's vessels in recent months.

Tensions have increased between Iran and Israel since 2018, when then US President Donald Trump ditched Tehran's 2015 nuclear deal with six world powers and reimposed sanctions that have crippled Iran's economy.

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US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin's visit to Israel this week is a milestone in the joint effort to stop Iran's nuclear program. 

This is the first visit by a senior Biden administration official in the region, and this is a positive signal in and of itself as to Israel's status in the eyes of the United States.

On top of that, the visit and the talks it involves are taking place while Israeli and American defense officials are increasing their collaboration. Only recently Israel started providing Iron Dome missile defense systems to the US armed forces, which consider Israel to be an important ally. 

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Gone are the days of the openly hostile defense secretaries, as was the case with James Forrestal in the 1940s or with Caspar Weinberger in the late 1980s. Austin's political clout in the administration's inner circle was visibly on display as of late when he asked Congress for a much higher budget than experts had anticipated: $715 billion

Apart from that, the timing of the visit is critical: The US is now assessing the impact of the indirect talks with Iran on reviving the nuclear deal. It appears that Iran considers itself in a strong position and has interpreted the administration's conduct (including vis-a-vis the war in Yemen) as enthusiasm to reach a deal. Thus, it insists that all the sanctions that were imposed by the Trump administration be lifted, even those that are unrelated to the nuclear program. 

This could prove counterproductive for Tehran. The Biden administration, having already shown that it is willing to hold talks, can seize on the Iranian intransigence in order to create a unified front with its European allies. 

Austin's stance on Iran, as the former CENTCOM commander, will carry significant weight. He knows the power players in the region and thus it is important that Israel show to him just how closely knitted our defense establishments are on all fronts: technological innovation, intelligence, cyber, maritime defense, the global war on Islamic terrorism.

On this strong foundation, we can also build toward a more unified approach with the US on Iran, and lay forth key demands for a new deal that would be longer and stronger (as President Joe Biden said he wanted). 

Thus, we cannot rule out that in light of recent events, including the leaks coming out of Washington, Austin will ask Israel to scale back its activities.

If he makes such a demand, it is imperative that we use this visit to once again make it clear to the Americans that Israel has the right to defend itself the way it sees fit. This is a sacred principle for Israel and it is also important to its new friends in the region, who rely on its strength and its willingness to use it when needed.

It also serves the US's long-term interest. As we learned in 1938, without exercising power when needed, negotiations can lead to appeasement. 

Col. (res.) Dr. Eran Lerman is vice president of the Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security.

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"It is clear that we don't have many months ahead of us. We have weeks," Grossi said in an interview for the Reuters Next conference.

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Iran resumed enriching uranium to 20% fissile strength at the underground Fordow nuclear plant earlier this month in a further breach of the nuclear pact with major powers since the United States withdrew from it in 2018, possibly complicating efforts by US President-elect Joe Biden to rejoin the deal.

Its parliament passed a law in November that obliges the government to halt inspections of its nuclear sites by the International Atomic Energy Agency and step up uranium enrichment if US sanctions are not eased.

An Iranian lawmaker said on Jan. 9 said it would give the incoming Biden administration, which takes office on Jan. 20, until Feb. 21 to reverse sanctions.

"I must take it seriously because it's the law," Grossi said, adding that he believed the Islamic Republic's government intended to implement it.

Grossi said Iran was progressing "quite rapidly" in 20% enrichment and that based on estimations it would be able to reach about 10 kilograms (22 pounds) a month at its facility in Fordow.

Uranium refined to 20% fissile purity is well above the 5% generally regarded as suitable for producing civilian nuclear energy and shortens Iran's potential path to 90% purity required for a nuclear bomb. Iran denies any intent to weaponize enrichment.

"There will have to be a clear understanding on how the initial terms and provisions of the JCPOA (nuclear deal) are going to be recomplied with," Grossi said.

Tehran started violating the 2015 accord in 2019 in a step-by-step response to President Donald Trump's withdrawal from it in 2018 and to the reimposition of US sanctions that had been rescinded under the deal.

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Trita Parsi, executive vice president of the Quincy Institute in Washington and a former head of the National Iranian American Council, recently drew that harsh conclusion. No doubt, Parsi may be correct in his ultimate analysis. US-Iranian tensions could easily spin out of control into an all-out war that neither Iran nor the United States wants.

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There are, however, shades of grey that separate longstanding tit-for-tat attacks on US targets – primarily in Iraq, occasional Iranian harassment of US naval vessels in the Gulf and sporadic US responses – from all-out war.

The United States and Iran have been engaged in tit-for-tats with varying degrees of intensity for years, and so far have avoided an uncontrolled escalation despite incidents such as the 1988 downing of Iran Air flight 655, which killed 274 people, and the assassination by the United States earlier this year of Iranian Quds Force chief Qassem Soleimani.

Leaving aside potential black swans, a likely scenario is that a US desire to reduce its commitment to the Gulf States, increased Gulf doubts about US reliability as a regional security guarantor and a new world in which Gulf and Western states struggle to come to grips with the economic fallout of the coronavirus pandemic combine to create an environment more conducive to a multilateral security arrangement – one that would reduce the risk of war, even if multilateralism seems to be on the retreat around the world.

US President Donald Trump's threat in early April to cut off military sales to Saudi Arabia if the kingdom did not bury the hatchet in its oil price war with Russia, sparking the collapse of the oil markets, is an inevitable epic battle for market share.

More immediately, it drove the message home in Riyadh that US security guarantees were conditional and reinforced Saudi perceptions that the United States was getting disproportionately more out of its close ties to the kingdom than the other way around.

The Trump administration, in a little-noticed sign of the times, put Saudi Arabia in late April on a priority watch list for violations of intellectual property rights because of its pirating of sports broadcasting rights owned by Qatar's beIN television franchise. The listing threatened to complicate Riyadh's already controversial bid to acquire English soccer club Newcastle United.

It is still too early to assess the geopolitical impact of the global economic downturn. Depressed demand and pricing for oil and gas could enable China to diversify its sourcing and potentially reduce its dependence on the Middle East, a volatile region with heightened security risks. China imported 31% more oil from Russia last month while its intake of Saudi crude slipped by 1.8% compared to March 2019.

At the same time, low oil prices that make US production commercially less viable could temporarily increase Washington's interest in Gulf security.

Fundamentally, and irrespective of what scenario plays out, little will change. The United States will still want to reduce its exposure to the Middle East. For its part, China will still need to secure oil and gas supplies as well as its investments and significant diaspora community in the region while seeking to avoid being sucked into intractable regional conflicts.

By the same token, the gradual revival of economic life, including the probable phased revitalization of supply chains and international travel, combined with a need to rethink migrant worker housing and create local employment, could alter Middle Eastern perspectives of China's way of doing business.

China's Belt and Road Initiative projects often have a China-wins-twice aspect to them which, while they have always been problematic, will be even more so in a post-pandemic economic environment. China-funded projects rely by and large on Chinese labor and materials supply rather than local sourcing.

The People's Republic's "China First" approach extends beyond economics and commerce. In an environment in which the United States is an irreplaceable but unreliable partner, Gulf States may look differently at Chinese hesitancy to co-shoulder responsibility for regional security with the risk of having to involve itself in multiple conflicts from which it has managed so far to remain aloof.

The coronavirus pandemic is a watershed that will color Middle Eastern attitudes towards all the region's foremost external players: the United States, China and Russia. Prior to the crisis, Russia – the weakest of the three – was playing a weak economic hand well, but it may now find that more difficult.

Gulf States are likely to conclude that assertive go-it-alone policies are risky and only work in circumstances where big powers are either part of the ploy or look the other way – though they were easier to pursue in a stable economic environment in which their oil and gas revenue base appeared secure.

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The UAE appears to have read the writing on the wall. It began a year ago to hedge its bets by reaching out to Iran in a bid to ensure that it would not become a theater of war if US-Iranian tensions were to spin out of control. Still, that has not stopped its support for rebel forces in Libya led by renegade Field Marshal Khalifa Haftar in violation of an international arms embargo.

Trump's threat to cut off military sales to Saudi Arabia should have driven the point home. Yet the kingdom and other Gulf States, which are financially and economically weakened, less able to play big powers off against one another and deprived of any viable alternative options, may find that a multilateral security arrangement that incorporates rather than replaces the US regional defense umbrella is the only security straw they can hold on to.

But in eventually attempting to negotiate a new arrangement, they may find they no longer have the kind of leverage they had prior to a pandemic that in many ways has pulled the rug from beneath them.

Reprinted with permission from JNS.org.

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Tensions in the Gulf have mounted since attacks on oil tankers this summer, including off the coast of the United Arab Emirates, and a major strike on oil facilities in Saudi Arabia. Washington has blamed Iran, which has denied being behind the attacks.

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"I think they're going to continue to perform provocative actions over there ... and I think they'll look at every opportunity they can to do that," Modly said without giving a timeline or details.

"There's nothing that suggests to me, short of a regime change there, that you have a different tone set from the leadership, that would suggest to me that they're going to stop doing what they've been doing," he added.

Since May, the Pentagon has sent 14,000 additional troops to the region to deter Iran, including an aircraft carrier.

Modly suggested that US reactions to Iranian actions could take away from the Pentagon's focus toward priorities like countering China.

"As they start creating mischief over there ... our reaction is we send an aircraft carrier over there for 10 months," he said.

"What does that do to our carrier readiness? It degrades readiness the longer it's over there."

Modly's warning on future actions coincides with China, Iran, and Russia beginning joint naval drills in the Indian Ocean and the Gulf of Oman.

Waters around Iran have become a locus of international tension, with the United States exerting pressure for Iranian crude oil sales and other trade ties to be cut off, mainly through extensive sanctions.

The Gulf of Oman is a particularly sensitive waterway as it connects to the Strait of Hormuz – through which about a fifth of the world's oil passes – which in turn connects to the Gulf.

Asked if he expected Iran to lash out in the region as a result of internal protests, Modly said he had not seen intelligence on that.

Demonstrations against a hike in fuel prices turned political last month in Iran, sparking the bloodiest crackdown in the 40-year history of the Islamic republic.

About 1,500 people were killed during less than two weeks of unrest, three Iranian interior ministry officials told Reuters.

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The comment by President Hassan Rouhani coincided with a remark by Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif that Tehran might act "unpredictably" in response to "unpredictable" US policies under President Donald Trump.

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"World powers know that in the case that oil is completely sanctioned and Iran's oil exports are brought down to zero, international waterways can't have the same security as before," Rouhani said while meeting Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, according to Khamenei's official website.

"So unilateral pressure against Iran can't be to their advantage and won't guarantee their security in the region and the world."

Tensions between Tehran and Washington have risen since the Trump administration last year quit an international deal to curb Iran's nuclear ambitions and began to ratchet up sanctions. Tehran has denounced the new penalties as "economic warfare."

In a speech at the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), Zarif appeared to echo Rouhani's tone.

"Mutual unpredictability will lead to chaos. President Trump cannot expect to be unpredictable and expect others to be predictable. Unpredictability will lead to mutual unpredictability and unpredictability is chaotic," Zarif said.

Global commodity trading has been rocked in recent months after a series of attacks on international merchant vessels, which the United States has blamed on Iran and an Iranian seizure of a British oil tanker. Tehran has denied accusations that it was behind attacks on six tankers in May and June.

Washington, which has by far the strongest Western naval contingent in the Gulf, has been calling for its allies to join it in an operation to guard shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, a vital gateway for the world's oil industry.

So far, Britain, Australia, and Bahrain have joined the US-led security mission to protect merchant vessels traveling through key Middle East waterways.

Reiterating Iran's chilly response to the security mission, Iranian Rear Admiral Ali Fadavi, a deputy commander of the elite Revolutionary Guards, said no one can secure the Gulf other than Iran and countries of the region, according to the semi-official Fars news agency.

"Securing the Persian Gulf is the responsibility of Iran and the countries of the region," Fadavi said. "Other than us, no one can secure the Persian Gulf."

Erik Hanell, the owner of the British-flagged tanker detained by Iran while entering the Gulf, met Zarif in Stockholm on Aug. 20 to make the case for the ship and its crew to be freed.

The Stena Impero was diverted to an Iranian port on July 19, two weeks after Britain detained an Iranian tanker off the territory of Gibraltar. That ship was released this week.

"A constructive dialogue was had and we shared information around the case," Hanell, chief executive of Stena Bulk, said in a statement on Wednesday. "It was important for us to emphasize the importance of the release of the 23 crew. ... Also for the release of the Swedish-owned vessel Stena Impero."

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