Across all theaters, Israel has achieved significant gains following the blow it suffered on October 7. It has struck its enemies hard and, with American assistance, succeeded in forcing Hamas and Hezbollah into moves they had refused to take – releasing hostages while the IDF maintains its presence in the Strip, and ceasing fire from Lebanon as an expression of solidarity with Hamas, despite Israel's continued freedom of operation in Lebanon and ground presence at five points along the border.

However significant these achievements are, they do not guarantee sustained and strategically meaningful long-term change in the regional landscape. To achieve this goal – which means victory in the war – Hamas must be fully disarmed, and Hezbollah must either be disarmed or at minimum prevented from strengthening and returning to southern Lebanon.

Realizing these objectives is far more difficult than achieving the goals reached so far, because for Hamas and Hezbollah, this is no longer about paying a heavy price to ensure survival and protect strategic assets, but rather about making concessions of existential significance. This is because they require Hamas and Hezbollah to relinquish a central component of their identity and control over territory, and because such a move would amount to Hamas admitting that the October 7 attack was a mistake and accepting that, in Palestinian national memory, the attack that galvanized the Palestinian public will be recorded as a disaster and grave error.

The impression is that the American administration has not yet decided whether to back powerful Israeli force moves that would enable completing the collapse of Hamas, or to prefer, as it currently leans, to begin implementing phase two of the plan (perhaps even without waiting for the return of Ran Gvili's body), at least in the area under IDF control, without disarming Hamas. Each path faces numerous obstacles due to the plan's ambiguity, which requires agreement on small details, the parties' differing interpretations of the plan's intent, the multiplicity of parties meant to be involved, and above all – President Trump's eagerness to demonstrate progress and strengthen the message that the war has ended, even when conditions on the ground actually indicate difficulty in advancing the plan.

To avoid having to make a strategic decision between completing the war objectives and leveraging achievements so far to shape a better security reality for the coming years, versus avoiding an undesired confrontation with an especially friendly American president who operates from his own motivations – Israel must make every effort to convince Trump that backing Israel to complete the mission is also in his interest. Among other reasons, it could help expand the Abraham Accords. One way to do this is to create a broad internal Israeli front on this issue, beyond the government. After all, the hostage dispute is already behind us.

The writer is the head of the Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security.

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The president opened with a reference to the antisemitic attack that occurred during Hanukkah in Sydney, saying it was "an antisemitic attack, exactly what it is," and added that "all nations must stand together against the forces of radical Islamic terror." According to him, the US "joins in mourning the dead and prays for the speedy recovery of the wounded."

Trump then moved to sharp criticism of the American political system, warning of a profound shift in the balance of power. "The Jewish and Israeli lobby used to be the strongest in Washington. That's no longer the case. Today you have to be very careful," he said. According to him, "You have a Congress, especially the House of Representatives, that is becoming antisemitic," and added that there are members of Congress "who don't like Israel. They hate Israel." Trump noted that such a phenomenon would have been "unthinkable 15 years ago."

The president linked the growing antisemitism to the denial of the Oct. 7 Hamas attack. "There are people who deny it even happened – just like they deny the Holocaust. This didn't happen many years ago; this happened now," he said. According to him, he himself was exposed to footage from the attack, and said, "I saw the tapes. I wish I hadn't seen them." Trump emphasized that his administration will not allow the spread of such phenomena, but called on Jews in the US to be vigilant.

During the event, Dr. Miriam Adelson, publisher of Israel Hayom, was invited to the stage. Trump noted that Adelson contributed to his campaign, "indirectly and directly, $250 million," and described her as "an amazing woman, with a wonderful husband, a man who loved Israel." Adelson, in turn, recalled that she came to the Knesset in October specifically "with a scooter... just to hear you, I wanted to hear you live." She later noted that she recently spoke with attorney Alan Dershowitz, who raised with her the legal thing about "four more years," referring to the possibility of a third term for President Trump.

The president then quipped about Adelson, suggesting she offered to give him "another $250 million" if he ran for a third term.

Later in his speech, Trump sent a clear threat to Hamas. "If Hamas plays games, they will be in big trouble," he said, emphasizing that his administration acted decisively to return all the hostages, both living and fallen, and responded to the call of the families of fallen hostages. According to him, this was an effort that even he thought was impossible, but was completed.

Toward the end, the president addressed the Jewish audience directly and said, "You are protected. You are a special people." He concluded with a symbolic message for the holiday. "The Hanukkah story reminds us that light will always triumph over darkness."

Earlier, during a Hanukkah reception at the White House, US President Donald Trump hosted the Neutra and Alexander families, the parents of late Captain Omer Neutra, killed while held hostage by Hamas, and Staff Sergeant Edan Alexander, who was released from Hamas captivity and re-enlisted in the IDF.

According to Ronen Neutra, Omer's father, "President Trump spoke about the release of the hostages with emphasis on the fallen and called us to the stage, where we emphasized that there is still a fallen hostage, Ran Gvili, who must be returned."

Full disclosure: The Adelson family owns the company that is the primary shareholder in Israel Hayom. Dr. Miriam Adelson is the publisher of Israel Hayom.

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Iranian military officials acknowledged tactical failures during the recent war with Israel while insisting the country's missile capabilities remain largely intact, with a senior Western diplomat stated missile sites may now be relocated deeper into eastern Iran for protection. "If we keep. "We did not think that they would target our commanders and scientists in their own homes along with their families. We miscalculated and admit that we were wrong,"  Mohammad Reza Naghdi, a Revolutionary Guards deputy commander said. Despite strikes that killed dozens of senior commanders, Naghdi claimed "Israel has not destroyed even 3% of our missile launchers," the Financial Times reported.

The Revolutionary Guards recently staged a public weapons exhibition at Tehran's National Aerospace Park, displaying ballistic missiles, hypersonic systems, and attack drones. The display sought to project military strength and reassure citizens following the 12-day war with Israel and the US that exposed significant vulnerabilities. Israeli strikes killed dozens of senior commanders and nuclear scientists, while over 1,000 people died in Iran, according to the Financial Times. Tehran argues its massive missile response forced the conflict to halt.

A 35-year-old accountant named Nasrin stopped before a Sejjil ballistic missile, remembering social media images of the weapon soaring through skies during fighting, the Financial Times reported. "Thanks to these missiles, the US and Israel knelt down before us," she remarked. "Without them, Iran would have become like Gaza."

Last month's presentation formed part of a campaign to convey strength following a war inflicting severe damage on the Islamic republic – and to assure citizens the nation remains combat-ready should necessity arise, according to the Financial Times.

Brigadier General Ali Balali of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, serving as exhibition director, told attendees: "People are seeing these missiles and drones up close, and realise they're locally made weapons to defend the homeland," the Financial Times reported. "Our capabilities place us within the club of nations known for significant missile development."

During months following the 12-day conflict, wherein the US briefly participated before negotiating a ceasefire, numerous Iranians describe existing in a state of "no war, no peace," according to the Financial Times. Iran has prohibited UN inspectors from accessing its most sensitive nuclear installations, which sustained US bombing, and has reached deadlock with Washington over resuming atomic energy program talks, the Financial Times reported. European powers have additionally reimposed sanctions.

These developments have produced mounting anxiety within Iran that renewed combat may prove inevitable rather than hypothetical, according to the Financial Times. "Our missile capability must continue to grow," stated Sara, a 19-year-old psychology student at the aerospace park. "The war could resume at any moment."

Officials insist Iran's military preparedness undergoes swift restoration, the Financial Times reported. Yet the exhibition also represented an attempt to shift public narrative away from vulnerabilities exposed during combat, when Israeli forces eliminated dozens of senior commanders and nuclear scientists in a devastating opening assault. Iranian authorities reported casualties exceeding 1,000.

By launching what it describes as more than 600 missiles in retaliation – the most extensive bombardment Israel has confronted in its history – Tehran argues it compelled the war to cease, the Financial Times reported.

Iranian officials contend the war should be assessed not solely by deaths but by financial costs Israel and the US incurred intercepting relatively inexpensive Iranian munitions and executing long-range aerial operations, including with expensive precision guided missiles, the Financial Times reported.

Shahed drones, utilized by Russia in its Ukraine war, received prominent display, alongside multiple other drones reverse engineered from US and Israeli models Iran captured, the Financial Times reported. Still, the Islamic republic has also sought to address its shortcomings. Domestically-manufactured radar systems failed to prevent Israeli jets and drones from striking Tehran. In recent YouTube interviews with hardline director Javad Mogouei, ministers and military commanders admitted Israeli tactics caught them unprepared.

"We were taken by surprise by the way the enemy operated," stated Mohammad Reza Naghdi, a Revolutionary Guards deputy commander during the war, according to the Financial Times. "We did not think that they would target our commanders and scientists in their own homes along with their families. We miscalculated and admit that we were wrong."

The most embarrassing moment occurred with Hamas political chief Ismail Haniyeh's assassination in Tehran in July 2024, when Iran declined to retaliate against Israel, the Financial Times reported. Officials now acknowledge this reflected not strategic restraint but an uncomfortable reality: Tehran recognized it lacked sufficient capabilities to respond effectively and required time for rebuilding.

Brigadier General Ali Mohammad Naeini, spokesperson for the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, informed Mogouei that Iran had worked to improve the accuracy and effectiveness of its missiles during subsequent months, according to the Financial Times.

"We are working around the clock to reach a new level of readiness," Naeini declared. "Without long-range ballistic missiles, this war would have lasted eight years [like the war with Iraq], not 12 days. It would have taken us a year, not hours, to go on the offensive."

A senior Western diplomat in Tehran stated missile sites may now relocate deeper into eastern Iran – farther from Israeli and American aircraft – for enhanced protection, the Financial Times reported. "If we keep the enemy's targets beyond its access, there won't be another war," Naghdi stated. "Their costs must exceed their achievements."

Western diplomats are also monitoring for indications whether the republic seeks foreign assistance to rebuild its military strength, the Financial Times reported. The critical question, as one expressed it, involves whether nations like Russia, China and Pakistan are offering support to Iran.

For many aerospace park visitors, the conclusion proved evident: Iran's future depended not merely on protecting but strengthening its weapons program, according to the Financial Times. "If we put aside our missile programme, we will be attacked more severely next time," stated Keyvan, a 27-year-old computer engineer. "After the war, we realise more than ever how invaluable these missiles are."

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Two weeks ago, a first meeting took place between Israeli and Lebanese representatives, laying the groundwork for ongoing talks concerning both preventing Hezbollah's re-armament and issues related to the border line and IDF activity in Lebanese territory. A follow-up meeting was already scheduled, and at the Netanyahu-Barrack meeting they agreed on a framework for talks and topics to be discussed between the sides, including coordination on the return of residents from southern Lebanon to their homes, specifically those not from pro-Hezbollah villages.

Israel's active defense rights

According to the sources, the meeting reinforced coordination between Israel and the US on Syria and Lebanon issues. They say there is a consensus that Israel has the right to defend itself actively, meaning to strike terrorist organizations and terrorists wherever they pose a real threat. On the Lebanese front, discussion focused on tightening coordination with the Lebanese army to enable it to fulfill its mission of uncovering Hezbollah's weapons and ammunition stockpiles in the country's south. Barrack was presented with data and intelligence showing that the Lebanese are not sufficiently determined in this mission and that the IDF, therefore, needs to conduct strikes on sites where the Lebanese army cannot or does not want to operate.

Warning about al-Sharaa forces

In the Syrian sector, Israel presented intelligence showing that the forces of Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa cannot be trusted. One member of these security forces carried out an attack in which two soldiers and an American civilian were killed. The Damascus administration was quick to declare that this was a terrorist from ISIS, and Washington adopted this version. Israel warns that this is not a lone terrorist and that al-Sharaa's forces are responsible for massacres of minorities, including Druze and Alawites.

The American representatives requested that Israeli activity in Syria be coordinated and that Israel allow government forces to impose order. This week, in one of the Syrian villages not far from the Israeli border, a patrol of Syrian forces was filmed passing by an IDF checkpoint in what appears to be a coordinated passage between the sides.

Turkey's regional involvement

Another topic raised was Turkey's involvement across all sectors. The meeting clarified that Israel's firm opposition to Turkish forces entering the Gaza Strip remains in place. Regarding Syria, Israel seeks to preserve aerial freedom of operation in the country, and the Americans propose strengthening coordination in this context through CENTCOM headquarters to avoid clashes with the Turks. The meeting was attended by, among others, Foreign Minister Gideon Sa'ar, acting National Security Advisor Gil Reich, Military Secretary Brig. Gen. Roman Gofman, US Ambassador to Israel Mike Huckabee, and Israeli Ambassador to the US Yechiel Leiter.

Saudi normalization disappointment

Meanwhile, an American source says that Washington's disappointment over the lack of progress toward normalization between Israel and Saudi Arabia and the latter's joining the Abraham Accords is directed at both sides. He confirmed our Israel Hayom report that the Saudis, therefore, did not receive immediate signing of the F-35 aircraft deal, nor their request regarding the nuclear facility. He added that Israel's actions in Judea and Samaria (establishing new settlements) and reports of Jewish violence against Arabs are among the factors in the failure to achieve rapprochement with Saudi Arabia.

President Trump is disappointed, the source says, but he is not giving up, as this move (bringing Saudi Arabia into the Abraham Accords) is a key move for a comprehensive Middle East solution. The source confirmed that the White House and State Department conveyed messages of dissatisfaction about the assassination of senior Hamas figure Raad Saad, but described as "exaggerated" the publications on this matter. "Israel is entitled to defend itself and strike terrorists, but in the background, there is a ceasefire and moves to end the war, and care must be taken not to torpedo that. Trump's plan returned all the living hostages and almost all the deceased, Israel needs to give it a chance to be completed," the source said.

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For those who managed to watch the footage from the attack, extremely disturbing images show community members who came to light the first Hanukkah candle: Human rights lawyer, Arsen Ostrovsky, covered in blood, recorded himself in a moment of unimaginable fear. Masses of people are seen fleeing for their lives in terror. The similarity between these images and the images of Nova Festival attendees who recorded themselves in moments of sheer terror conveys the same sense of helplessness when live fire is opened on civilians who cannot defend themselves, but the connection between October 7 and the Sydney attack runs even deeper than that.

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According to him, "Honestly, this is a strange and thoughtless decision. If Netanyahu had agreed at the beginning to open the crossing according to the agreement, he would have achieved the following things – respect from the international community, embarrassment for Egypt, hundreds of thousands of Palestinians would have left, only a few hundred would have entered, and the US would have received this as a gift. This is a diplomatic failure."

Nevertheless, Israel views this as an appropriate sanction for the ongoing delay in delivering all deceased hostages.

That is, first a Palestinian police force would be deployed, then a technocratic government would be established, and the PA would return to managing the Strip, and only at the end would the disarmament process begin. According to this proposal, the weapons would pass to the custody of the Palestinian Authority, which would oversee their storage, and its role would be to prevent terrorists from accessing them. It has also been reported that Doha and Ankara are proposing an alternative to the PA: "international supervision."

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Ran's story of heroism began on the morning of October 7. He was at his home in Mitar on medical leave, with a broken shoulder and scheduled for surgery two days later, but he didn't hesitate for a moment when the attack began. "He left the house on his own initiative, dressed in uniform and a vest," his father, Itzik, said. "He wouldn't let his friends fight alone."

Ran drove out, equipped himself, and continued to the Gaza border region. He joined Lt. Col. Guy Madar, and together they operated near Kibbutz Alumim. The two stopped at the gas station at Sa'ad Junction, where they helped evacuate and rescue dozens of survivors from the Nova Festival, under fire and mortal danger.

Eliminated 14 terrorists, and was kidnapped

On his way to Alumim, Ran encountered a heavy ambush that included RPG fire. He was seriously wounded in his hand and leg, but continued fighting despite the injury. He treated himself using a tourniquet and took cover near a tree. Despite his condition, he engaged in close combat and eliminated 14 terrorists. Ran sent his friends warning messages with his location, and the last message was received around 11:00 AM. After his ammunition ran out, he was kidnapped while seriously wounded.

His friends from the Yasam (Israel Police Special Patrol Unit) who fought with him that day in Alumim continue to come to the family's rallies. "These are the guys who fought with Rani," Itzik said with pride. "They don't abandon him."

Two weeks later, the family received official confirmation of the kidnapping, along with a difficult photo showing Ran lying on a motorcycle in Gaza, wounded and captive in the hands of terrorists. "There's no other indication," the parents said. "Not from other hostages, not from stories. Rani was kidnapped alone."

Ran's heroism didn't begin on October 7. It started years earlier, at age 18, with an injury that defied all medical logic. In a fall during a training accident, he broke his femur – "one of the hardest bones to break," Talik said – but simply got up and walked out on his feet. At the hospital, he told his father it was "a small sprain." After a long surgery, the doctor announced that rehabilitation would take more than a year, and Ran would never return to being a combat soldier.

"Itzik and I breathed a sigh of relief," Talik admitted. But then Ran opened his eyes. "Listen very carefully," he told the doctor, "I'm returning to the same place I left off within four months, and you're going to sign off on it." The doctor didn't believe him. But four months later, after hours upon hours of physical therapy, he returned to service. And the doctor approved.

A chilling detail has emerged in recent months. In the months before his kidnapping, Ran watched a series about the Syrian captives. "He knew them by name," his mother described. His brother asked why he was watching something so sad, and Ran answered, "What do you understand? These are Israel's heroes!" That sentence now takes on an almost prophetic meaning. He knew the stories and became a hero himself, who an entire nation is waiting for.

"We were left alone, but not really"

The struggle to bring him home is being conducted almost entirely by the family alone. "There's no money," they said. "The Hostages and Missing Families Forum couldn't continue raising funds to continue the rally at the square, so we opened a crowdfunding campaign. It's not our thing. It's purely to continue the public struggle." The change in protest format, the move to Saturday night rallies in Meitar and at the Kashtot Junction – all of these didn't stem from choice but from necessity.

"We were left alone as we understand it, but not alone really – alone with you," Itzik said at the rally. "It's not so alone, it's together. I wish this were the last Saturday."

"Bringing Rani back is a consensus; everyone knows he needs to come home," the family said. "We need you now more than ever to make it clear to the world that we're not moving to any phase until Rani returns."

And the next phase is what frightens them more than anything – the transition to "phase 2" of the deal, whether under American pressure or for security reasons. "There's concern," Talik admitted. "We understand that the Palestinian Islamic Jihad and Hamas are working with us, and the Americans too. Working on Donald Trump. They're dragging out time. That's their interest. And the world must wake up."

The family doesn't hide the fear of the scenario that has hovered over them since day one. They hear the comparison to Ron Arad or Hadar Goldin a lot. "It's something we're afraid of without wanting to be," Talik said. "It's automatic; it's a fear that exists. We know the history."

At the same time, they emphasize that Hamas and the Palestinian Islamic Jihad organizations' claim that they "don't know where he is" simply doesn't make sense. "What, did they kidnap a cat and throw it to the bottom of a garbage bin?" they asked. "He's a soldier in uniform, he fought in the middle of a battle. It doesn't make sense that they don't know where he is. We know they're hiding him, and hiding him well."

And facing the doubt that settles in, they repeat their faith. "We haven't received a sign that he's alive from the IDF, and also no sign that he's not. He didn't disappear."

Ran, in the last Hanukkah he spent with the family, was himself, his smile, his altruism, his historical knowledge, and his good heart. "He's someone who loves people, someone who goes out first to protect and comes out last, the gatherer of everyone," the parents said.

"Rani is my son, but he's everyone's child," Itzik said. And now, they said, it's our turn to be his gatherer. "We need to unite in this message. We won't be able to recover – not us as a family and not the state – until this circle is closed. He went out to protect us, and now it's our turn to protect him. May we have a great miracle."

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For years, Saad topped Israel's target list, evading numerous assassination attempts until Saturday's successful strike. Together with Izz al-Din Haddad, who now leads Hamas' military apparatus in Gaza, he stood as the sole survivor among the organization's pre-war senior leadership and among the handful who knew the intimate details of Hamas' assault blueprint, which Israel designated "Wall of Jericho" (Hamas's operational code for the October 7 attack).

Israel justified Saad's elimination by pointing to his ongoing efforts to reconstitute Hamas' capabilities and an explosive device that injured two reserve soldiers near the southern Strip on Friday. Yet these explanations appear tailored for Washington's consumption: The authentic motivation boils down to a score Israel had to settle with him – or stated plainly, vengeance.

By Saturday evening, Hamas had yet to acknowledge Saad's death. The silence might reflect internal disarray, though questions remain whether the organization retains meaningful retaliatory capacity. Hamas has hemorrhaged most of its military strength alongside its military and civilian leadership throughout the war, leaving it organizationally shattered. Currently it channels its remaining resources toward consolidating control over the Strip's western sector, which stays under its authority. Israel presumably factored this weakness into its assassination calculus, which earned unanimous backing from the diplomatic-security establishment's uppermost echelons.

The singular gamble Israel appears to have accepted concerns the Washington administration. Saad's elimination provides Israel an opportunity to gauge President Donald Trump's temperature, for whom the Gaza accord stands as his first presidential term's marquee diplomatic accomplishment. Trump recently pressed Israel to throttle back its Gaza operations, affording space for the agreement's advancement; if he refrains from erupting now, Israel can interpret his silence as tacit authorization to persist in eliminating Gaza's senior hierarchy, mirroring its Lebanon approach.

Hamas will naturally strive to derail this trajectory, mobilizing its Qatari and Turkish sponsors hoping they'll persuade Trump to muzzle Israel. This contest for the president's attention – and by extension his policy direction – will dictate Gaza's near-term landscape. Israel seeks maximum postponement of transitioning to Phase 2, apprehensive it will mandate further withdrawals absent fundamental shifts in Gaza's circumstances. It partially attributes delays to Hamas' failure to return fallen hostage Ran Gvili, with Hamas contending that Israeli intelligence leads proved fruitless in pinpointing his location.

Three unpalatable paths

Meanwhile, Americans wrestle with assembling a multinational contingent to shoulder Gaza's security burden and execute its demilitarization. Simultaneously, mobilizing the billions required for the Strip's reconstruction proceeds at glacial speed: precisely as before, a chasm yawns between verbal pledges and written commitments. Trump must deploy his full leverage extracting promised funding – including from prosperous nations, principally Saudi Arabia – lest he grow tempted to embrace Qatari financing once more.

This tangle poses difficulties for Israel by generating three unpalatable paths. First, the grandiose promises yield nothing and Hamas continues governing overtly. Second, Americans declare victory prematurely, accepting a phantom governing structure masking Hamas' continued dominance. Third, the accord disintegrates entirely, forcing Israel back into comprehensive Gaza combat – bearing its physical, economic and diplomatic toll.

Israel will likely endeavor provisionally, at least publicly, to afford the agreement implementation opportunities as Trump desires. The assassination will be rationalized, as noted, through immediate operational necessity, simultaneously insisting Hamas cease its ongoing violations. Meanwhile, deliberately avoiding excessive administration irritation and projecting restraint, Israel shelved plans Friday to strike Hezbollah installations in Lebanon.

Israel maintained the scheduled operation was aborted because the Lebanese Armed Forces requested (and obtained) the intended target and pledged to address it independently. This signals encouragingly that threats of escalating military pressure toward renewed warfare are producing results, propelling the Lebanese Armed Forces toward action. Prudence nevertheless counsels withholding definitive conclusions: presently the probability of another Hezbollah confrontation remains elevated, merely deferred temporarily.

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If you follow this issue, this name will sound familiar. Around 200 leading industry figures have now signed a petition calling for his release from Israeli prison, with the hope that the Palestinian prisoner will become the leader of a future Palestinian state. Among the signatories to the petition you will find names that haven't escaped notice around the world, such as British actors Sir Ian McKellen and Benedict Cumberbatch, musician Sting, and also Jewish actresses Miriam Margolyes – known mainly from the Harry Potter film series – and Hannah Einbinder, joining actors who have already expressed their anti-Israel views over the years, Mark Ruffalo and Javier Bardem.

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In light of the clear support of Hollywood's stars for Barghouti, one can only wonder – who does Hollywood want to crown as "Palestinian Mandela" and the future leader of a Palestinian state?

15-year-old Fatah operative 

Born in a village near Ramallah in 1959, Marwan Barghouti joined the Fatah terrorist movement under the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) at the mere age of 15. Israeli authorities detained him for the first time at 19, and he served a two-year prison sentence for his involvement as an operative in a Fatah unit that executed a terrorist attack. During the first intifada of the late 1980s, Barghouti gained political prominence in the West Bank by directing Palestinian clashes with Israeli forces. He enrolled at BirZeit University to study History and Political Science, but his campus political work for Fatah, and his involvement in establishing Fatah's youth movement, triggered another imprisonment and subsequent deportation to Jordan.

Barghouti returned to Judea and Samaria in 1994, enabled by the terms of the Oslo Accords. He supported the Oslo Accords and even engaged in dialogue with Israeli political figures, an approach that significantly differed from his previous behaviour within Fatah. He began positioning himself against Yasser Arafat, then-leader of Fatah, particularly over disagreements with the Palestinian Authority. At the same time, he seized the opportunity to consolidate his power further within Fatah, whether through participation in mass demonstrations or by aiding and promoting terrorists from the Tanzim – Fatah's ground forces, who pioneered terrorist strikes against Israel during the Second Intifada, which he led in 2000.

When the second intifada erupted that September, he was directing marches toward Israeli checkpoints and provoking riots against Israeli soldiers. His compelling speeches aimed at urging Palestinians to use violence to drive Israel from the West Bank and Gaza Strip. During intensifying violence, Fatah spawned a new terrorist branch designated the Al-Aqsa Martyrs' Brigades, which conducted strikes against Israelis – including a March 2002 suicide bombing that claimed 30 lives.

Israeli authorities accused Barghouti – still commanding the Tanzim – of holding a prominent position in the Brigades, and Israeli forces arrested him in April 2002 by tracking his phone. Israel charged him with terrorist organization membership and dozens of murder counts for ordering deadly attacks, with courts convicting him of five charges in 2004 and imposing five life sentences plus 40 years.

The court found Barghouti accountable for a June 2001 attack in Ma'ale Adumim that resulted in the death of Greek monk Tsibouktsakis Germanus, a January 2002 kidnapping and murder of American citizen Yoela Hen, a March 2002 attack at Tel Aviv's Seafood Market restaurant that killed three individuals, Eli Dahan, Yosef Habi, and Salim Barakat, and a car bombing in Jerusalem.

The connection to Hamas 

Despite two decades of imprisonment, Barghouti has preserved much of his political power – including playing a key role in facilitating negotiations between Hamas and Fatah in February 2007 prior to Fatah's bloody ouster from the Gaza Strip, and securing election to Fatah's party leadership in absentia in 2009.

Throughout negotiations between Hamas and Israel since October 7, Hamas has repeatedly demanded Barghouti's release, despite his membership in the rival Fatah organization. Hamas' demand for his release connects to debates about Gaza's "day after" – Mahmoud Abbas' succession as the president of the Palestinian Authority and Hamas' future involvement in Palestinian political affairs. Since Abbas is unpopular among Palestinians, and Hamas is looking to extend its reach to the West Bank, Barghouti, who, according to polls, has garnered significant support from Palestinians, has become Abbas' natural successor.

Last March, Fadwa Barghouti began campaigning for her husband, hoping he might replace Abbas as president. Her campaign, which included meetings with high-ranking officials in the Arab world and the US, has also received support from pro-Palestinian Hollywood stars, as Barghouti is portrayed as a leader who will "unify" the Palestinian people in both Gaza and the West Bank.

Hamas previously attempted to secure Barghouti's release during negotiations for the return of kidnapped IDF soldier Gilad Shalit, who was kidnapped in 2006. Still, even then, Israel firmly refused, and the deal was carried out with the release of over 1,000 security prisoners in exchange for Shalit. To this day, this deal continues to stir controversy in Israeli society. Given the risks associated with freeing Barghouti, his release remained off the table during the Iron Swords negotiations as well.

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UNRWA functions across Gaza, the West Bank, Lebanon, Jordan, and Syria, delivering aid, schooling, medical services, social assistance, and housing to millions of Palestinians. The administration has accused the organization of Hamas ties, charges UNRWA has forcefully disputed.

Washington previously served as UNRWA's largest funder before halting contributions in January 2024 following Israeli claims that approximately a dozen UNRWA staff participated in the deadly October 7, 2023, Hamas assault that ignited the Gaza conflict. Secretary of State Marco Rubio subsequently charged in October that the agency had evolved into "a subsidiary of Hamas," which America designated a terrorist organization in 1997.

Current American deliberations have not clarified whether the focus encompasses the entire agency or targets specific UNRWA officials or operational segments, and authorities appear undecided on the precise sanctions instrument they would employ, according to Reuters.

Potential measures State Department figures have explored include designating UNRWA a "foreign terrorist organization (FTO)," the sources indicated, though whether that option – which would severely isolate UNRWA financially – remains actively under consideration is uncertain.

Imposing terrorism-based sanctions on UNRWA would constitute a remarkable and extraordinary step, given America's UN membership and role as host nation for the United Nations, which established the agency in 1949.

William Deere, who leads UNRWA's Washington office, stated the organization would be "disappointed" if American authorities were genuinely exploring an FTO designation. He termed such action "both unprecedented and unwarranted."

"Since January 2024, four independent entities have investigated UNRWA's neutrality including the US National Intelligence Council. While occurring at different times and from different perspectives, they have all come to the same conclusion: UNRWA is an indispensable, neutral, humanitarian actor," Deere stated.

A State Department official responding to inquiries called UNRWA a "corrupt organization with a proven track record of aiding and abetting terrorists," according to the report. "Everything is on the table," the official stated. "No final decisions have yet been made."

State and other agencies possess multiple sanctions mechanisms, generally enabling asset freezes and travel restrictions aimed at specific individuals and entities. Numerous vital American allies provide UNRWA funding, prompting questions whether foreign officials could face penalties for supporting an organization if Washington sanctions UNRWA or its personnel on terrorism grounds.

The UN has stated nine UNRWA employees may have participated in the October 7, 2023, Hamas attack and were fired, according to the report. A Hamas commander in Lebanon – killed by Israel in September – was also discovered to have held a UNRWA position.

Individuals directly familiar with the UNRWA deliberations, who requested anonymity to reveal confidential discussions, privately voiced multiple humanitarian and legal apprehensions given the organization's unique role assisting displaced Palestinians.

Political appointees at State installed since Trump's term began have generally championed the drive to impose terrorism sanctions on UNRWA, the sources stated, according to the report. Numerous career State officials – including lawyers who craft designation language – have resisted, those sources added, Reuters reported.

In recent weeks, potential sanctions have been discussed by officials in State's Counterterrorism Bureau and Policy Planning Staff members, an influential internal policymaking entity, one source stated.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has spent years calling for UNRWA's dismantlement, accusing it of anti-Israeli incitemen. Since January 30, Israel has banned UNRWA operations on Israeli territory.

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