"Almost immediately, a series of escalating events began in the Israeli-Palestinian sphere and beyond," the Institute for National Security Studies warned.

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As part of a quickly deteriorating Middle Eastern situation, the INSS warned that Jerusalem would likely be confronted with a wave of Palestinian violence and the freezing of the Israel-Jordan peace treaty, as well as Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas declaring independence in Judea and Samaria.

"During the exercise, the increased loss of control over these events spurred the various relevant actors to accede to a plan by the Quartet [UN, US, EU and Russia] for the suspension of both the annexation and establishment of the Palestinian state and a return to the negotiating table – with [US President Donald Trump's] plan one of the terms of reference for those negotiations, along with the Arab Peace Initiative," the INSS concluded.

The Arab Peace initiative is a 2002 Saudi-sponsored plan that offers Israel full diplomatic normalization and trade with the Arab world in exchange for a Palestinian state in accordance with the UN and international law.

The INSS also lamented that the current Israeli government would be eschewing long-term strategic thinking in favor of short-term considerations, and that sovereignty could prompt "dramatic steps that change the rules of the game."

"It became clear that tactical events are what determine Israeli strategy," the think tank said. "This tendency was illustrated during the war game, and showed that the decision-making process reflects short-term thinking that does not take into account all of the direct or indirect consequences of dramatic steps that change the rules of the game."

According to the INSS, Israel could also be confronted with a far less amenable administration in the White House come November, when the US holds presidential elections.

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"The image of Israel as a 'regional bully' that does not comply with norms, international law, or the rules of the game, while enjoying full American backing, is prevalent. The dynamic of the game showed that if [US Democratic Presidential nominee Joe] Biden is elected president, he may withdraw American recognition of the annexation, and perhaps the protection of the American veto on a decision against Israel that is not binding in the Security Council. In that case, relations between Israel and the Democratic Party in the US will be seriously harmed," the report concluded.

Parts of this article were originally published by i24NEWS.

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Haliva, who was speaking at the Annual International Conference sponsored by the Institute for National Security Studies, added: "The response that Israel can provide to threats such as a cruise missile strike is better than what occurred in Saudi Arabia. I advise our enemies not to test us."

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Addressing tensions with Iran, Haliva said: "The Persians invented chess, but I've met Jews who can perform a checkmate. The IDF has continued throughout the past year to prevent Iranian entrenchment in the area. We are fighting on six fronts plus one, which is Iran. We are looking at these fronts all day and mainly at night.

"The campaign between the wars will go on. The Russian actor is extremely significant in the arena. There are two events here with the potential to cause a strategic change – the [Qassem] Soleimani assassination and the deal of the century. These are significant events. If you'd asked me before the Soleimani assassination whether I thought the US would do it, I'd have said no. If we have to use force we will do so quickly and precisely and make the balance of power clear to the other side," said Haliva.

Discussing the recent rise in tensions with the Palestinians, following the publication of the Trump peace plan and the possibility of annexation of the Jordan Valley and parts of Judea and Samaria, Haliva said, "The IDF will be able to provide security to Israel in the wake of any decision by the political echelon. We are prepared regardless of the Trump plan for an outbreak of violence on all fronts.

"We reinforced several battalions in Judea and Samaria and the Gaza area. We will be able to activate our forces accordingly," he told the audience.

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The study has been conducted consecutively for 35 years and offers insight into public opinion trends over the years.

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According to the 2019 study, 31% of the Israeli public believes the northern sector, including Lebanon and Syria, poses the greatest threat to national security; 26% of those polled think Iran's nuclear program is the central threat to Israel; while just 14% view the Israeli-Palestinian conflict as the most serious security problem facing the country.

The public also doesn't consider Hamas in Gaza a primary threat, and only 14% of the public views the terrorist organization as a strategic threat.

The study also reveals that 54% of the Israeli public believes the home front is ready for a war. Meanwhile, 72% of those questioned said they were not preparing for war or were only slightly preparing for it, while just 28% said they were very much readying themselves for war.

Additionally, the study found that 82% of the public agrees with the statement that "Israel can rely only on itself" in a war, while 60% of those questioned believe "The people of Israel are the chosen people."

Half the people questioned said they do not trust the United States to stand by Israel if it is attacked as Saudi Arabia was recently attacked by Iran.

In the study, which was overseen by Dr. Tzipi Israeli, 800 people were questioned in face-to-face interviews. Its complete findings will be presented next week, on January 28, at the 13^th Annual INSS International Conference in Tel Aviv, which will be attended by senior officials from Israel and abroad.

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