"We are entering a decade of intense security challenges, both globally and locally. Security and the economy are inseparable, especially in Israel. Basic security is a central pillar of national security, alongside the economy, society and advanced technology," Baram said.

Addressing the global security situation, he noted: "We are seeing a dramatic rise in defense budgets worldwide. Global defense spending in 2024 reached some $2.7 trillion, a jump of about 20% compared to 2023, the largest increase since 1988."

On the impact of the war on Israel's economy, Baram said: "Despite the prolonged fighting, which has already cost the economy more than 205 billion shekels (about $54 billion), economic indicators are showing resilience, especially after every security success, such as the pager operation or Operation With Lion's Heart. The CDS index [credit default swaps] and the shekel-dollar exchange rate are stronger today than they were before October 7. Despite the war's duration and its immense challenges - fatigue, costs, social strains - there is a correlation between these indicators that strengthens our economic standing and lowers Israel's risk premium."

He added: "We must invest now in thinking about 'the next surprises' and the next pager operations. This is security economics. Each surprise carries broad consequences: a strike in Yemen costs on average about 50 million shekels ($15 million), but it has far-reaching effects on deterrence and our global standing. An Arrow 3 interception costs between 15 and 30 million shekels ($4.5–9 million), but the damage from a miss can reach almost 300 million shekels ($90 million), as we saw with the ballistic missile strike in Bat Yam."

Baram stressed that Israel must fundamentally change its production and procurement processes for critical defensive and offensive systems. "What the Iranian regime completes in a month takes Israel months or even years. Our procurement processes are multi-year and require financial flexibility," he said.

"The lessons of this war, along with de-globalization and delegitimization, require us to expand Israel's production base, achieve independence in critical components, and commit to long-term and complex defense deals. Operation With Lion's Heart ended in a decisive Israeli victory, but there will be additional rounds against Iran. The Iranians have not disappear, they are in a state of humiliation, and they are investing vast sums both in defense and in accelerated force-building."

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Although Khamenei's comments referred mainly to the so-called naval blockade announced by the Houthis against Israel and the terrorism they are waging to prevent ships linked to Israel from crossing the Red Sea, his words also hinted at threats toward Western countries. He suggested Iran could impose restrictions on the passage of "hostile vessels" through the Strait of Hormuz if the West fails to reach understandings with Tehran.

Regardless, the latest wave of Israeli Air Force strikes over Sanaa, the Yemeni capital, has disrupted the momentum the Houthis had been drawing from Iran's backing.

As Israel continues preparing for a ground takeover of Gaza City, and as the ripple effects of the Shiite axis' defeat are felt in Syria and Lebanon, rocket and drone launches from Yemen persist. The Houthis' ongoing fire, and the Israeli retaliatory strikes, have created a daily rhythm of attacks and counterattacks that, without prior intention, have solidified into a "response equation."

Tehran traditionally claims that the Houthis act according to their own worldview and interests, and therefore Iran should not be held accountable for their actions. The same line is taken regarding other organizations that Israel and much of the international community see as Iranian proxy forces, extensions of the Islamic Republic's "octopus."

Even if there were some truth in these denials, Tehran's officials would struggle to hide Iran's role in arming the Houthis with the very ballistic missiles and drones they use to target Israel. Iran's missile industry, whose dangers were clearly demonstrated in recent years, remains a strategic threat not only to Israel but also beyond. Just in the past few days, Iran's new defense minister openly declared that Tehran continues to produce weapons and missiles "even right now."

Iran's attempt to separate the Houthis' campaign from its own role, just as it seeks to separate the nuclear issue from its ballistic missile program, serves its double aim: preserving the use of proxy warfare while avoiding restrictions on its missile production and proliferation.

Israel still has military options against the Houthis that it has not fully employed. These could significantly raise the cost of continued attacks, target wider economic interests, eliminate leaders, and increase their sense of vulnerability from more than just airstrikes. Yet it is important to remember that Yemen is a secondary arena, and its geographic distance gives Israel advantages as well. Excessive focus there could inadvertently serve Israel's other enemies.

Alongside military operations to break the "response equation," Israel must now focus directly on Iran as the critical timeframe approaches to reimpose sanctions lifted under the 2015 nuclear deal. That agreement included a unique "snapback" clause allowing the renewal of international sanctions with the support of a majority of the signatory states. This clause is set to expire on October 18, and to invoke it requires 30 days' advance notice. The International Atomic Energy Agency has already declared that Iran is not honoring its commitments.

The E3 countries - Germany, France, and Britain - hold the ability to trigger the snapback. They have warned that if Iran does not shift its stance in the nuclear talks by the end of August, they will be forced to act. Such a move would reinstate a global arms embargo and restrictions on missile production and distribution. Talks on this issue are set to continue tomorrow in Vienna at the deputy foreign ministers' level.

Israel must press the US administration to influence the E3 decisively. Iran's conduct provides full justification for renewing sanctions. It would be a grave mistake to use this leverage merely as a negotiating tool to push Iran toward an agreement, after it has repeatedly violated past commitments.

Instead, it is time to bring the whip down directly on the regime. After the military setback it suffered in the recent 12-day war, and amid the severe domestic crises battering it, the reimposition of crippling sanctions could, if not immediately, then eventually, bring the most significant achievement in Israel's struggle with Iran: destabilizing the radical regime itself.

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Sadr said his claims were based on "intelligence information and analysis" of the 12-day war between Israel and Iran, during which, he asserted, Iran's air defense network was effectively wiped out.

Video: Mohammad Sadr during the interview

Speaking in an interview with BBC Persian, Sadr argued that Israel's precise strikes on all of Iran's air defense positions were suspicious, and pointed to Moscow's refusal to back Tehran.

The official, who once served as a close adviser to former Iranian president Mohammad Khatami, said that Russia had shown a "bias in favor of Israel" and that the latest war proved the "strategic agreement with Russia is nonsense."

According to Sadr, "Russia sold the S-400 system to Turkey, a NATO member, but not to Iran. It has not even been willing to sell us the Su-35 fighter jets until now. We must not think that Russia will come to Iran's aid when the time comes." He was referring to the repeatedly announced but never implemented deal for advanced Russian warplanes.

Sadr further claimed that from the moment President Ebrahim Raisi's helicopter went down, he believed the crash was "an Israeli act" meant to send Tehran a message that "if Iran continues, we will continue too." At the time, speculation that the crash was the result of sabotage sparked widespread discussion in Iranian media and even viral jokes on social networks.

Iran's armed forces general staff has previously issued a statement denying the possibility of sabotage in the crash that killed Raisi and his entourage.

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On Wednesday, the foreign ministers of France, Germany and Britain announced that they were ready to activate the "snapback" mechanism at the end of the month, but left Iran the option to postpone the deadline if it was willing to return to the negotiating table in earnest. "We have made it clear that if Iran is not ready to reach a diplomatic solution before the end of August, or does not take the opportunity for an extension, we will be ready to activate the snapback mechanism," they wrote in a letter to the UN secretary-general.

The ministers added that they had offered Iran a limited extension to allow "direct negotiations between the US and Iran," but the proposal has so far gone unanswered by Tehran.

The sanctions mechanism

What is this "snapback" being discussed? It is a mechanism built into the 2015 nuclear agreement, which allows its members to reinstate the sanctions imposed by the UN Security Council on Iran between 2006 and 2010. The mechanism is triggered through the Security Council, but its permanent members cannot block it with a veto, effectively leaving Iran exposed, without the diplomatic shield of China or Russia. Since the US withdrew from the agreement, only France, Germany or Britain can trigger it. But the timeline is short: the option to do so expires in October.

If the snapback mechanism is activated, all UN sanctions imposed on Iran between 2006 and 2010 would return. These include a full arms embargo, a total ban on uranium enrichment, a ban on ballistic missile tests capable of carrying nuclear warheads, and a ban on transferring technology and technical assistance in the missile field. In addition, it would impose asset freezes and international travel bans on Iranian officials and entities, and countries would be allowed to search Iranian cargo planes and ships of the national shipping company to find prohibited goods.

"An existential threat," is how a senior Iranian official described the possibility of the powers activating the snapback mechanism. "The Islamic Republic has neither the economic nor military capability to withstand the return of UN sanctions. This will cause the people to protest again, and this time it could be different," he told the Telegraph from Tehran. "Sanctions are more damaging than war," another senior Iranian official added. "The Supreme National Security Council has asked the presidency to find a way to talks before it's too late."

Indeed, the Islamic Republic is facing a series of complex crises, the most prominent these days is likely the water crisis. On Wednesday, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian addressed in a cabinet meeting a jab from Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu about the possibility that Israel might help the Iranian people after the regime falls. "That is a delusion. Those who falsely claim to care about the Iranian people should first look at the difficult situation in Gaza and its defenseless people," Pezeshkian said at the government meeting. "Humanitarian claims from such filthy people are nothing but mockery of the people."

Thirsty for water

Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf found another culprit for his country's acute problem: Israel. "The Nazis of the 21st century attacked with fighter jets the main water pipes of northern Tehran to drag the city into a water shortage," he wrote on Twitter. "In the occupied territories and in Gaza, those criminals have been the number one water thieves in the world for years."

Netanyahu, it should be recalled, addressed the Iranian people in a video message in Persian, promising that Israel would help solve the country's severe water shortage once Iran was "free" from the current regime.

Pezeshkian himself gave public expression to Iran's helplessness on both these issues, water and nuclear talks. In a speech he gave earlier this week, the president admitted: "You want to fight? Well, you fought, but they hit us. If we rebuild the nuclear facilities, they will attack them again. What can we do if we don't enter negotiations?"

On the water crisis, he said: "We have no water, we have no water under our feet, and we have no water behind our dams. So tell me, what will we do? Someone comes and asks me, 'What should I do?'" He added that Iran is in a "serious crisis."

Direct attack on the president: 'Ignorance'

The editor of the conservative Iranian daily Kayhan, appointed by Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, called the president's remarks the result of "ignorance" and added that he hoped Pezeshkian's words were only a "slip of the tongue." He wrote, "Some of our officials have fallen into the false trap of 'either negotiations or war,' even though America and Israel have been defeated and are now begging for negotiations."

The Tasnim news agency, affiliated with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, also attacked the president, claiming: "When the enemy hears these things, what decision does it make and what image does it form of Iran? Clearly, only an image of Iranian weakness." The agency argued: "To present such a weak and desperate image of ourselves, that we have no way other than talks, will that cause the enemy to negotiate with us and, in addition, give concessions?"

Pezeshkian responded to the criticism on the X social network and defended his approach: "Speaking openly about problems means respecting the awareness of the people, who are the true owners of the country. Solving problems begins with recognition, not concealment. We came to build, not to hide things; we speak honestly with the people, not with sirens."

There is no doubt that Iran's nuclear program was severely damaged in the 12-day war, the Iranians themselves, the International Atomic Energy Agency, the US, and regional countries all admit this. But two troubling factors remain: first, the regime's motivation to advance the nuclear issue has only grown after its conventional deterrence proved to be a broken reed. Second, Iran holds a stockpile of more than 400 kilograms of uranium enriched to 60%, enough for several nuclear warheads after further enrichment, even if that occurs in less sophisticated facilities than the industrial program that was badly damaged.

Netanyahu confirmed this in an interview with Channel I24, saying of the Iranian nuclear project: "It has been pushed back for years, that I can say. Right now they are not in a position to advance the plans they intended to advance. They have 400 kilograms of enriched uranium left. We knew in advance that the uranium would not be harmed, but that is not enough to produce nuclear bombs." He added: "We are prepared for the possibility of Iranian action, and above all for an attempt to rebuild their nuclear program."

A sequence of blows 

Danny (Denis) Citrinowicz, former head of the Iran Branch in the IDF Military Intelligence Directorate's Research Division and now a researcher at the Institute for National Security Studies, estimates that Iran is in strategic distress that could also lead to renewed confrontation. "They are truly in strategic distress. It is a combination of many things: the war, the ongoing confrontation with Israel, and on the other hand also other issues like the water crisis and US involvement in the agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan. It is a sequence of complex blows for which they have no real solution."

On the likelihood of another confrontation, Citrinowicz estimates: "There is a high probability they will attack if they assess that Israel is about to attack them, but not in order to 'punish for the previous round.' The understanding there is that they cannot repeat the events at the start of the previous war, that is simply too big a danger for the regime."

As for their current moves, Citrinowicz believes they will work to restore their proxies, despite what appears to be a "death blow" in Lebanon and Iraq, and despite those proving ineffective in deterring Israel. In his assessment, these steps are part of a general Iranian system overhaul, groping in the dark of the strategic quagmire created by the policies of the Revolutionary Guards in recent years.

The appointment of Ali Larijani is, in his view, a sign of an attempt to reach out to moderates while at the same time "not tearing the rope" on any front. In terms of force building, the main goal will be to restore their air defense and missile capabilities, which were severely damaged in the war. Before they do that, Citrinowicz estimates, they "will not make strategic decisions on the nuclear issue."

This situation, according to Citrinowicz, allows pressure on Iran for a series of concessions on nuclear issues, which could complete the process begun in the war, and prevent another confrontation, in the form of a kind of mutual "non-aggression" agreement.

"Entering a war of attrition is very dangerous. We must remember that the Iranians have learned their lessons too, not just us. The question arises, if we have already significantly damaged their nuclear program, what are we trying to achieve now? We see that we too are paying heavy prices from these rounds of fighting."

Nevertheless, he admits that the decision-making equation is not simple, and that an agreement Iran might reach could reduce pressure on the regime, which is now at a low point. "There is no doubt that the likelihood of returning to war is significant. The starting point of such a war would be the end of the previous war, in other words, we are talking about a war that would begin immediately at a very high level of intensity."

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Israel built a network of Iranian regime opponents and dissidents and recruited foreign operatives over several years with the goal of assassinating senior Iranian figures and completely dismantling Iran's air defense systems as part of Operation Rising Lion, according to an investigation by journalists Yossi Melman and Dan Raviv published on ProPublica.

According to the investigation, Israeli pilots had been secretly flying over Iran as early as 2016, studying the terrain and pinpointing vulnerabilities to minimize the risk of detection.

A vast network

The report states that an extensive network of local operatives was activated on the second day of the war, June 14, to carry out coordinated strikes aimed at neutralizing Iran's air defense systems and missile launchers.

"One hundred percent of the anti-aircraft batteries marked for the Mossad by the Israeli Air Force were destroyed," ProPublica quoted a source as saying. "Most of them were located near Tehran, in areas where the Israeli Air Force had never operated before."

According to the report, foreign commandos trained by Israel and recruited from Iran and neighboring countries were deployed across Iran to carry out the attacks. Israeli intelligence used front companies to legally ship necessary equipment into the country.

"Israel smuggled tons of 'metal equipment', in reality, weapons components used by the commando teams, into Iran using unsuspecting truck drivers," the report stated.

Following the launch of the operation, Iranian media reported that several launch sites within the country had been built by Israel.

Israeli operatives also carried out intelligence-gathering missions around the Natanz nuclear facility, including collecting soil samples to monitor uranium enrichment levels. According to the report, agents posing as European technicians and maintenance workers roamed Natanz wearing shoes with double soles designed to capture dust and soil.

Tests later confirmed that Iran-made centrifuges had enriched uranium well above the 5% level.

Sources cited by ProPublica said that smuggling materials into and out of Iran was relatively easy. "Boxes and crates were sent by sea or in trucks passing legally through border crossings," one source said.

Target surveillance

The report also detailed long-term surveillance of 11 Iranian nuclear scientists, including daily routines and detailed maps of their homes.

"The dossiers even pinpointed the exact locations of bedrooms inside the homes. On the morning of June 13, Israeli fighter jets launched air-to-surface missiles at those coordinates, killing all 11," the report said.

Official sources emphasized that the logistics of the military operation were coordinated by the Israeli Military Intelligence Directorate and the Israeli Air Force, which reportedly struck more than 1,000 targets during the 11-day aerial campaign.

According to the Iranian government spokesperson, 1,062 Iranians were killed during the conflict, including 786 military personnel and 276 civilians.

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Published last week, the report calls for urgent reforms to Turkey's early warning systems, the construction of bomb shelters, and strong measures to counter potential espionage activities targeting Turkey's defense and industrial sectors.

While Turkey has invested heavily in its defense industry over the past two decades, the report stresses that significant gaps and vulnerabilities remain.

Since 2016, Ankara has emerged as a drone superpower, producing hundreds of armed unmanned systems such as the Anka and Bayraktar TB2, which have altered the balance of power in conflicts in Ukraine, Libya, Syria, and Nagorno-Karabakh.

Turkey is currently working to produce its fifth-generation stealth fighter jet, the Kaan, by 2030, as well as domestic air defense systems like the Hisar. However, its existing fighter fleet - mostly made up of F-16s- is aging rapidly.

The concern: Israeli air superiority

The report provides a detailed analysis of Israel's air superiority, noting that the Israel Defense Forces managed to deploy 300 aircraft in a complex operation involving F-16s, F-35s, armed drones, and aerial refueling tankers. Titled "The 12-Day War and Lessons for Turkey," the document argues that the conflict reaffirmed the critical importance of integrating manned and unmanned systems, such as drones, and modernizing Turkey's air force arsenal.

"Throughout the war, the need for a multilayered and comprehensive air defense system also became apparent," the report states. "Moreover, Israel's inability to fully intercept the advanced hypersonic missiles launched from Iran, despite extensive support from its allies, highlights the necessity for Turkey to accelerate its own efforts in this domain."

The report calls on Ankara to focus on serial production and capacity building for advanced military systems, including ballistic missiles and hypersonic weapons.

"The vulnerabilities in Iran's air defense systems underscored the critical importance of protecting strategic facilities through robust aerial defenses," the report adds. "Particular attention should be given to low-altitude air defense systems, especially at locations housing key security bureaucracies."

In addition, the document recommends establishing a nationwide early warning system, building well-equipped bomb shelters, including the use of underground metro stations in major cities, and taking steps to minimize civilian casualties.

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Citing its sources, the report stated that "Washington does not want to give Tehran the opportunity to rebuild its power."

In light of this concern, the same sources said the Trump administration is working to persuade China to refrain from purchasing Iranian oil. According to the report, in response to these efforts, China expressed interest in acquiring oil at a discounted price as a means of halting its purchases from the Iranian regime.

Meanwhile, Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Saeed Khatibzadeh declared that "Tehran is in no hurry to enter any form of indirect contact or negotiating framework with the US." According to Khatibzadeh, "An escalation in tensions is always possible when the other side is Israel and the US."

At the same time, Iran's Armed Forces Commander, Gen. Amir Hatami, said that "threats from Israel still persist." He stated, "Any threat of 1% must be treated as a 100% threat. We must not underestimate the enemy or view its threats as meaningless." He added that "the Islamic Republic's drone and missile forces remain in operational readiness."

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Araghchi confirmed that the extent of the damage to the nuclear facilities was "severe," but said he had no information regarding the fate of Iran's stockpile of highly enriched uranium.

"Our facilities were severe hurt, and the extent of the damage is currently being assessed by our Atomic Energy Organization," Araghchi said, adding that enrichment activities have been halted for the time being due to the strikes.

Despite this, the Iranian foreign minister stressed that Iran would not abandon uranium enrichment. "We cannot give up enrichment, because it is an achievement of our scientists. And now, more than ever, it is a matter of national pride," he said.

Araghchi reiterated Iran's pre-war stance: An insistence on maintaining enrichment capabilities on its own soil - which was a key factor in the failure of previous negotiations.

Talks on Iran's nuclear program with European signatories to the nuclear deal are scheduled to resume Friday, in what appears to be an attempt by Tehran to dissuade them from triggering the snapback mechanism that would reimpose UN Security Council sanctions.

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All they had to do was bank slightly eastward, and within less than an hour, they would be on Iran's doorstep. But they didn't. Instead, the aircraft continued to the northeastern tip of Syria, then turned around and flew back the way they came.

"That was the major rehearsal we did ahead of the Iran strike," a senior Israeli Air Force official explained. "The aim was to rehearse the full operation at least once, flying a distance comparable to that of Iran. The easiest way to do that was to fly all the way across Syria, then turn back."

Did the Iranians not spot you?

"And if they did? They knew we were preparing for a strike. It wasn't a secret."

Indeed, the operation in Iran was no secret. Yet three months later, on Friday, June 13, both Iran and the rest of the world were stunned when Israeli fighter jets launched a surprise assault: decapitating Iran's military command, assassinating several nuclear scientists, hitting nuclear facilities, and achieving air superiority over Iran within 36 hours.

The dazzling operation was publicly known as "Rising Lion" but within the Israeli Air Force, it was guided by a complex battle plan named "Iron Man."

"It's a deployment directive that aligns and guides the entire Israeli Air Force," said a senior officer. "We positioned all the Air Force's capabilities about 2,000 kilometers from Israel."

Conversations with Israeli Air Force and defense officials reveal the intricate path of "Iron Man" to Tehran. This is how the Israeli Air Force prepared for the largest operation in its history.

The ambitious goal

Until recently, Israel's plans for a strike on Iran had been relatively modest. "For the past 20 years, we were stuck in a 'pinprick' mentality," said a senior defense official. "Sometimes it was a Mossad operation, sometimes an aerial strike. But it was always an operation, never a campaign."

The paradigm shift came when Herzi Halevi assumed the role of IDF chief of staff. Early in his tenure, he presented a paper to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and then-Defense Minister Yoav Gallant proposing a shift in strategy, from a one-off operation to a full-scale military campaign. Halevi set the ambitious goal of achieving air superiority over Iran, to give Israeli jets free rein in its skies and pave the way to Tehran.

"When a squadron of F-15s is circling over Tehran, everything changes - physically and psychologically," a defense source said.

In his first meeting with Air Force Commander Maj. Gen. Tomer Bar, Halevi instructed him to begin preparations. But Bar was also dealing with internal opposition to the government's judicial reform, which had led some reservists to suspend their volunteer service, posing a potential threat to operational readiness. Israel itself was not yet prepared for war with Iran. "The biggest concern," said a defense official, "was the response from Hezbollah."

Ten months later, that concern became reality. The October 7 attacks froze the Air Force's ability to prepare properly for an Iranian campaign. Constant strikes in Gaza and Lebanon required dozens of jets to remain on high alert at all times, ready for Hezbollah's elite Radwan force to cross the northern border. "At the same time, we had to maintain a certain level of munitions," a senior insider noted.

Still, Bar realized early on in the war that the Iran file had been reactivated. "The understanding within the Air Force that Iran would ultimately have to be confronted came just days after October 7," said a military planner. "The realization that this was a centralized, Iran-led axis left no other option."

Serious internal discussions about a campaign in Iran began in March 2024. Just days later, the Air Force had a chance to prove its readiness. On April 1, Israel assassinated Hassan Mahdavi, the commander of the Syria-Lebanon Corps of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), in a strike near the Iranian consulate in Damascus. The original plan had been to kill Mahdavi with a single missile targeting the room he was in - minimizing collateral damage and giving Iran space to avoid a major response. But intelligence failed to pinpoint his exact location, and the Air Force was ordered to level the entire building.

Even so, Israel hoped the strike - aimed at a building near the consulate, not the consulate itself - would keep Iran from entering the war. But Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei viewed it as a serious breach of Iranian sovereignty and immediately ordered retaliation.

That retaliation came on April 13 in the form of Iran's "Night of Missiles" - hundreds of rockets, drones, and cruise missiles fired at Israel. Most were intercepted by Israel's air defense system, with help from a coalition of allied fighter jets led by the IDF and US Central Command (CENTCOM) under Gen. Erik Kurilla. It marked the first time Iran had attacked Israel directly.

Some Israeli cabinet members pushed for a fierce response. But the military resisted, concerned that escalating into full-scale war with Iran - while Hezbollah remained intact and the Air Force lacked full readiness - would play into Iran's hands.

Diplomatic constraints

The IDF's measured approach prevailed. The Air Force was instructed to respond by targeting just one S-300 air defense battery, one of five advanced Russian-made systems operated by Iran. A preparatory meeting with Netanyahu, Gallant, and Halevi revealed that diplomatic constraints made the original flight path into Iran unworkable.

As Halevi left Netanyahu's office, he rushed to Bar's headquarters. Bar's team was preparing the strike, and Halevi told him they'd have to find a new flight route. Overnight, planners reconfigured the path, taking into account new refueling stops and necessary strikes on air defenses along the way. "It wasn't just the flight path," one insider marveled. "It was fuel logistics, anti-aircraft threats, everything. And they did it in hours."

The April strike succeeded in destroying the targeted S-300 system. But not everyone was satisfied. National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir tweeted, "Lame!" Still, the limited strike was calculated and aimed at setting the stage for future operations. Crucially, it kept Iran from re-engaging militarily. Even the high-profile assassination of Ismail Haniyeh in central Tehran in late July 2024 didn't alter Iran's strategic restraint.

The months of relative quiet allowed the Air Force to lead a September 2024 campaign aimed at defeating Hezbollah. But as ground operations in Lebanon intensified and Hezbollah faced collapse, Iran decided to strike again.

The "second missile night," in October 2024, reignited hawkish sentiment in Israel's security cabinet. Proposals ranged from targeted assassinations to the destruction of Iran's energy sector. "A full symposium," said one source involved in the talks. But again, the IDF advocated a restrained response, and again, its view prevailed.

On October 26, Israel launched "Operation Days of Atonement," destroying Iran's remaining four S-300 batteries and striking its solid-fuel ballistic missile industry. To signal its ability to target Iran's energy infrastructure, Israel also hit a tactical air defense battery just 250 meters from an Iranian energy plant near the Iraqi border. "We denied them strategic air defenses and demonstrated we could hit tactical systems too," a defense official explained.

A month later, when the Assad regime lost control of Syria, Iran became dramatically more exposed. With the regime's collapse, the Israeli Air Force conducted a sortie that wiped out most of the Syrian air defense systems, allowing Israeli jets to avoid detours and instead fly eastward at high altitude, unimpeded across Syrian skies, saving significant amounts of fuel.

This removal of the Syrian threat also gave Israeli refueling planes freedom of movement near Iran's border. "Effectively, we could now refuel fighter jets much closer to Iran, just before they entered for a strike," an Air Force source said. "That gave them far more operational freedom."

The Israeli Air Force could now, in essence, set up a fueling station on Iran's doorstep and launch continuous, sustained airstrikes. "Only after Syria fell and the skies opened did the approach shift from 'plan a major operation' to 'prepare for war with Iran,'" said a military source. "There was a realization that we had a rare opportunity to deploy many more aircraft and weapon systems."

Before deploying dozens of jets over Iran, the issue of munitions had to be addressed. The April and October 2024 strikes had all been conducted from a distance, with Israeli planes never entering Iranian airspace. These were known as "standoff strikes," made possible by precision-guided munitions, whose development and procurement had required massive budgets.

For years, Israel had funneled billions into a fantastical Mossad-led plan to destroy Iran's nuclear program covertly, a plan insiders have described as "completely unrealistic." Those funds came at the expense of other capabilities.

"These capabilities have been on the table for 12 years," said a former defense official. "But for years, the system dumped absurd sums into that fantasy Mossad plan. And there just isn't money for everything."

Only during Naftali Bennett's premiership, and later through a series of expert committees established by Netanyahu, was the Mossad option abandoned in favor of funding military capabilities. The shift was rooted in the recognition that a conventional military option was more feasible than the covert one.

The redirected budgets proved their worth. But to launch a sustained campaign to achieve air superiority and systematically destroy Iran's ground-to-ground missile launchers, more was needed. That meant deploying the Air Force's workhorses, older fighter jets equipped with large stocks of cheap, readily available bombs.

This was the foundation of Israel's ability to operate across Iranian territory with manned aircraft, loiter over targets, drop heavy ordnance, and "bring the full weight of Israel's might all the way to Tehran," as one military source put it.

Which brings us back to the "Iron Man" battle plan.

Building a war machine

The assault on Iran was constructed atop decades of groundwork laid by the Israeli Air Force, transforming it into a strategic arm capable of operating far from Israel's borders. In fall 2024, when Bar ordered his team to draft a plan for a sustained and massive strike in Iran, or in his words, "to turn the third circle into the first", they knew they could lean on those foundations.

"This kind of campaign is based on structured battle procedures and building blocks laid down over decades, which built the Air Force into a strategic force, capable of operating in the third circle," said a senior officer.

Still, those building blocks had to be assembled into a coherent whole. "You need to tailor general capabilities into specific operational components. We needed a plan that integrated all elements and turned theory into practice."

Interestingly, many of the most innovative solutions came from the younger ranks and reached the desk of the Air Force commander. Many were accepted.

To draft the battle plan, the Air Force created a "winning team," as one insider described it. The operational headquarters was restructured to focus resources and manpower on the Iranian file. A dedicated Iran department was created, with sub-teams handling air superiority, refueling, and more. Meanwhile, squadrons began long-range training missions.

"Even once you have a plan, it doesn't mean you can execute it," said a senior officer. "We flew the distances and drilled components of the plan both in and out of Israeli airspace. It builds both readiness and a psychological sense of capability."

This massive production for a sustained campaign in Iran mobilized every component of the Israeli Air Force, including its air defense systems, which would have to brace for Iranian retaliation. The Air Force also anticipated that its own bases would come under missile fire, meaning squadrons would have to keep operating under direct attack. Preparations were made accordingly.

Through the workshop

All this planning happened while the Air Force was still engaged on multiple fronts - Gaza, Lebanon, Syria, and Yemen - without letting up. The strike plan was designed to allow Israel to hit Iran while staying operational across all other arenas. Fighter jets involved in Iran's aerial defense would launch missions with bombs already onboard. Once replaced mid-air by fresh aircraft, they would turn around to bomb Gaza targets before landing. "We couldn't spare a single jet," said a senior officer.

Because of the sheer strain on its fleet, much of the Air Force's Iran preparations took place on the ground, through its maintenance and technical units. These teams made sure every jet was serviced, parts replaced, and performance maximized. "Think about it. You're in a multi-front war, flying nonstop, over 600 days into combat, and now you have to launch a full-scale campaign against Iran," a senior officer noted. "It's an extraordinary effort by the technical crews to keep everything at peak performance amid a regional war."

Some of the aircraft designated for the Iran strike were taken out of rotation and armed well in advance, meaning they couldn't be used for other missions. Managing the Air Force in the weeks before the strike required puzzle-like coordination.

Early in the planning, the Air Force determined it would need to operate over Iran for 7 to 14 consecutive days to achieve maximum effect. At the heart of this was air superiority. Because while the initial "decapitation" strike on Iran's general staff and nuclear scientists was impressive, true superiority was what would allow a long, large-scale campaign.

"A key goal of the plan was to hunt down missile launchers and reduce fire on Israel, while also targeting many other assets," explained a source familiar with the operation. "That required heavy, low-cost bombs, not standoff munitions, which meant being able to bomb directly overhead. So, first we had to destroy dozens of air defense batteries and gain control of the skies."

Once flying over Syria became routine and the strategic S-300 batteries were taken out, the next step was to eliminate Iran's more basic air defense systems, those with a 100-kilometer (62-mile) range. And Iran had many.

At the start of the war, the Iranians kept these systems hidden to avoid detection and destruction. Believing a major Israeli strike wasn't imminent, they left the western border - facing Israel - largely unprotected. Most batteries were focused on Tehran and nuclear sites.

But as tensions grew, Iran moved more and more batteries west to counter a possible Israeli assault, thanks in part to increased domestic production. "They knew we were coming," said an Israeli Air Force officer. "And they prepared."

By June 2025, Iran had deployed about 15 batteries along its western frontier, seemingly securing it from airstrikes. Meanwhile, in the Air Force's command bunker, planners worked on how to outsmart that very defense.

Cracking the Shield

Israel's key advantage in this chess match was intelligence. A special unit in Military Intelligence was established solely to track and study Iran's air defense batteries. For the first time, intelligence officers physically sat in the Air Force bunker, bringing real-time updates about battery locations.

"Just last week, we found ten more batteries we hadn't known about," said one official. "Eventually, we knew exactly where every single battery was. It took hundreds of people from Air Force Intelligence, Military Intelligence, and the Mossad."

The plan to achieve air superiority didn't involve destroying every system. On the first night of the attack, Israeli jets carved out two narrow corridors through Iran's western air defenses, both in the north, providing easier access to Tehran. The southern border area near the Persian Gulf was left untouched.

When striking the batteries, the goal was to destroy their radar systems before a missile could be launched. It wasn't just about avoiding being hit, it was because if a missile was fired, pilots had to jettison their bombs to evade it. "That means abandoning the mission," said one Air Force source. "We couldn't afford that."

The resulting gaps, about 300 kilometers (186 miles) wide, allowed Israeli jets to penetrate deep into Iran. The next day, they pushed forward, destroying more batteries en route to Tehran. On the second night, they took out nearly all of the air defense systems in and around the capital. Where aircraft faced difficulties, Mossad teams on the ground stepped in and destroyed systems manually.

The elimination of these tactical batteries was a resounding success. During the operation, only a handful of missiles were fired at Israeli jets (some say none at all), and no manned aircraft were downed. In total, Israel destroyed 84 Iranian air defense batteries.

Early in the campaign, the Iranians tried to move systems around, hoping to hinder Israeli operations. But soon they began keeping them hidden, fearing more losses. "From day three, they barely engaged," said one Israeli participant. "They knew that if a battery came out of hiding, we'd take it out. They shifted to full survival mode and barely fired."

The assault didn't stop at launchers. Israel targeted Iran's entire air defense infrastructure: command centers, military industries, personnel. The network collapsed quickly.

Iran's fighter jets were largely irrelevant. Most stayed on the ground or flew to protect their own bases, avoiding any dogfights. Apart from a few limited strikes on those bases, Israel left the Iranian Air Force alone. The campaign focused entirely on eliminating air defenses.

By January 2025, "Iron Man" was ready. The target date for full operational readiness was set for April. Even after that, the Air Force's planning team kept refining the strategy. Simultaneously, they closely monitored developments in Iran.

"We were facing an enemy that kept evolving and growing stronger," said a senior officer. "We had to fine-tune the balance between reaching peak readiness and avoiding exposure of the plan."

Secrecy was maintained even within the Air Force. Only a handful of senior officers knew when, or even if, the operation would launch. Hours before the strike, personnel began receiving orders to report to command centers, squadrons, and bases. These summons were issued until the very last moment to preserve the element of surprise.

Once the operation began, it exceeded expectations. Despite assumptions that some manned jets would be lost, and despite the pilots' awareness that being downed in Iran meant near-impossible chances of rescue, not a single manned aircraft was hit during the entire 12-day campaign.

"I'd rather crash into a mountain with my plane than eject and be captured," one pilot said.

Achieving air superiority enabled the Israeli Air Force not only to strike freely but to actively "hunt" Iranian ballistic missile launchers, significantly reducing rocket fire on Israel, a key objective of the campaign. For 12 consecutive days, strike waves flew through Syrian skies, refueled safely nearby, and conducted multiple bombing runs over Iran. Eventually, drones joined the effort, roaming over Iran with near impunity.

"We used cheap, short-range weapons, which dramatically increased the number of targets we could hit," said one official involved in the mission.

The plan had been built from the outset to allow continued full-force operations right up to the end. "The goal was to keep hitting with full intensity even as we neared potential closure," said a senior officer. "We had Israeli Air Force jets flying over Tehran, maintaining pressure and consolidating gains until the very last moment."

The operation culminated in a show of force: a massive US strike on Iran's nuclear facilities at Fordo, Natanz, and Isfahan. In all these cases, it was the Israeli Air Force that cleared the path by eliminating Iranian air defense systems ahead of the American attack.

Even after a formal ceasefire, Iran violated the terms by launching two ballistic missiles at Israel. In response, Israel assembled a formation of 52 fighter jets to strike central Tehran, sending an unequivocal message. But when US President Donald Trump learned of the mission, he ordered the jets to turn back. "They were 20 minutes from launch," said an Air Force source. "They were stopped at the very last second."

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According to the Iranian narrative, its primary success was in preserving the Islamic regime, based on the assumption that toppling it was Israel's real aim in launching the war.

Two central themes have dominated Iranian media discourse since the war ended. The first concerns the resumption of nuclear negotiations with the US. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian is under fire from conservative and ultra-conservative circles for wanting to resume talks, on condition the US guarantees Iran will not be attacked again, and for the implied trust he still places in President Donald Trump.

A matter of hours

The second theme involves whether Iran should respond with force. While some voices argue that Tehran's success in the war negates the need to strike Israel, the conservative-radical daily Vatan-e Emrooz reported on Sunday that top Iranian political and security officials are "intensifying discussions" over launching a pre-emptive strike against Israel.

The paper explained that this option is being considered in response to recent threats by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Israel Katz, who warned of Israeli enforcement measures should Iran resume efforts to develop nuclear weapons or expand its ballistic missile production. Coupled with reports of US arms shipments to Israel since the end of the war, Vatan-e Emrooz concluded another Israeli strike is likely. It therefore called on Iran's regime to prepare to launch a pre-emptive attack "a day, a few hours, or even just one hour before the Zionist assault on Iran," if its security chiefs determine such a strike is imminent.

To prepare Iranian public opinion for such a move, the paper suggested the regime should frame it as a way to finally end the cycle of war and attacks on Iran, while using the threat to create long-term deterrence.

Meanwhile, signs of Iranian anxiety are increasing - both due to the damage suffered in the war and new threats from France, Britain and Germany to reinstate the UN Security Council's snapback sanctions mechanism against Iran in mid-October 2025. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi told French media that Tehran would view a snapback as equivalent to a military attack.

In a related development, Mehdi Mohammadi, a strategic adviser to Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf and a former nuclear negotiator, posted an image on Instagram depicting a nuclear attack on Israel. After it drew widespread attention and criticism, Mohammadi deleted the post, explaining it was uploaded by his social media administrator, though he personally believed a nuclear weapon would enhance Iran's deterrent capability.

The fine print in Tehran's ceasefire declaration

Ultimately, Israel and Iran are entering a new phase in their strategic confrontation. Israel has demonstrated its determination to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons and its advanced capabilities to enforce that red line. Iran, on the other hand, is suspicious, vengeful, and alert - an impression reinforced by statements from its senior officials. After the war ended, Iran's foreign minister clarified that Tehran had not agreed to a ceasefire, but merely to halt attacks on Israel if Israel stopped its own.

This context increases the likelihood of a miscalculation by Iran, potentially triggering a sudden missile strike on Israel.

Israel's primary challenge in this next stage will be to combine intelligence vigilance with strategic coordination with the US, in order to thwart any Iranian attempt to obtain nuclear weapons and prevent a misstep that could reignite the war in one form or another. At the same time, Israel must work toward as accurate an assessment as possible of the damage inflicted on Iran's nuclear program, to plan its next moves accordingly.

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