The target was identified as Hossein Hussein Mahmoud Marshad al-Jawhari, a key operative in the Quds Force's operations unit. He was killed together with another terrorist, Majed Qansoua, according to Israeli officials.

Al-Jawhari operated under Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and was involved in Iranian directed terrorist activity against the State of Israel and Israeli security forces, the IDF said.

In a statement, the IDF stressed that Unit 840, the Quds Force's external operations unit headed by Asghar Bagheri and his deputy Mohammad Reza Ansari, is responsible for directing Iranian terrorist activity against Israel. "The IDF and the Shin Bet view with utmost seriousness any attempt by the Iranian regime and its proxies to advance terrorist plots and will continue to act to remove any threat to the State of Israel," the statement said.

Earlier, Lebanese media reported an Israeli strike in northeastern Lebanon. The reports said that in addition to al-Jawhari, Qansoua was also killed in the attack.

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But, we also know Operation Rising Lion last June achieved its objective first and foremost because it took Iran completely by surprise. To that end, a range of deceptive narratives were spread, confusing the Israeli and American public, and certainly Iran's leaders and senior Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps officials.

So what are we supposed to make of all this?

In the topsy-turvy reality we are living in, does it mean Israel is heading toward a coordinated strike on Iran, with or without the US? Are all these reports designed to distract everyone to enable a surprise scenario in Lebanon or Gaza? Or are they meant to divert attention from a US intention to push Israel into the next phase in Gaza, contrary to the prime minister's intent?

Or, perhaps, the meeting is meant to serve the domestic political needs of both leaders, who could use a public display of closeness amid the internal and external storms bearing down on Israel and the US?

These questions are fascinating, but it is important to consider the possibility that all this chatter is indeed meant to distract attention, but from something else entirely: the Netanyahu government's growing difficulty in coordinating policy with the Trump administration on fundamental issues.

The deep strategic coordination between Israel and the US should, in recent months, have matured into the launch of negotiations to formulate a new decade long Memorandum of Understanding, known as an MOU. The current MOU is set to expire in about two years, and judging by the previous round, the process of shaping a new one should already have begun.

The previous MOU, signed in 2016, codified the web of strategic cooperation between Israel and the US. It also included an American funding package for the purchase of US-made weaponry from the American defense industry totaling about $3.3 billion a year, plus an additional $500 million package for Israel's procurement of missile interceptors.

Netanyahu knows all of this well. He was prime minister then, too, and the negotiations on Israel's behalf were led by my colleague Professor Yaakov Nagel, who at the time served as acting head of the National Security Council.

Netanyahu is delaying the launch of the process, possibly because he fears Trump is not eager to approve a new MOU. On the other hand, US Ambassador to Israel Mike Huckabee said publicly this week that while it is a presidential decision over which he has little influence as ambassador, he believes conditions will ripen for signing another MOU.

In a normal situation, one would add to this the fact that the previous US president signed a presidential statement given to Israel's government during his visit in the summer of 2022, in which the US committed to the continuity of MOUs with Israel even after the current one ends. True, this was during Prime Minister Yair Lapid's tenure and under US President Joe Biden, but today, unfortunately, continuity of decision-making between governments and administrations does not appear to carry much weight.

In Washington, there are currently winds calling for cuts to US foreign aid. Unfortunately, voices are also multiplying among extremists on both the right and the left calling for an end to all US backing for Israel. Precisely because of this, it should be the perfect moment for an experienced prime minister like Netanyahu to put this issue at the center of his meeting with Trump. He should show that now is the time to make America's commitment visible for all to see, not only to Israel's security but to the value of strategic cooperation between the two countries.

This is the moment to showcase Israel's significant contribution to US national security: through procurement of US weapons systems; operating them in a real operational environment that encourages their improvement; extensive and deep intelligence cooperation that protects US forces in our region; and the opportunity to shape the Middle East in a positive direction through a partnership in which Israel bears most of the security burden.

At the same time, such an MOU would entrench Israel's standing in the region as the US' leading ally, and at the heart of a pragmatic alliance in the spirit of the Abraham Accords, cooperating against shared enemies such as Iran and the Muslim Brotherhood.

This is an issue of fundamental importance to Israel's national security. All that remains is to hope that Netanyahu addresses it as well in his meeting with Trump.

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The suspect, Vadim Kupriyanov, an Israeli citizen in his 40s and a resident of Rishon Lezion, was detained by the Shin Bet security agency and Israel Police. Investigators said Kupriyanov was instructed by his handlers to purchase a car-mounted camera as part of the mission.

According to the investigation, over the past two months Kupriyanov was asked to carry out a range of security-related tasks. At the request of those directing him, he transferred various photographs taken in his city of residence and in other cities, in exchange for different sums of money.

On Thursday, following the conclusion of the investigation, an indictment will be filed against Kupriyanov at the Lod District Court by the Central District Attorney's Office.

Bennett responded in a post on his Instagram account, writing: "Iran's efforts to harm me will not stop me from my life's mission."

Bennett in Iran's crosshairs

Last week, an Iranian cyber group hacked into Bennett's smartphone and published a 141-page phone book that it claimed was taken from Bennett's personal device. Shortly afterward, the group released portions of private correspondence he had conducted over the years.

The hackers mocked the former prime minister in a message addressed to him, saying that despite his past claims of being a beacon of cybersecurity and presenting his expertise to the world, it was ironic that his iPhone 13 had fallen so easily into their hands. They derided what they described as his digital fortress as nothing more than a paper wall waiting to be breached.

Bennett later said the matter was being handled by the authorities, adding that Israel's enemies would do everything possible to prevent him from becoming prime minister again. "It won't help them," he said. "No one will stop me from acting and fighting for the State of Israel and the people of Israel."

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Israel Hayom has learned that under the American plan, which Israel is aligning itself with, the meeting will address details of negotiations on the second phase of the deal. At the center of these talks are the disarmament of Hamas and the establishment of alternative governing bodies in Gaza. These include an overseeing body, the "Peace Council," to be headed by Trump, and a civilian governing authority largely composed of Palestinian officials from Gaza.

On Sunday, an Israeli delegation headed by Gal Hirsch, the government's coordinator for hostages and missing persons, traveled to Cairo along with representatives of the Shin Bet security agency and the Mossad. Their goal was to accelerate efforts to locate the body of the last remaining hostage, Ran Gvili. Israel insists it will not move forward to the second phase of the deal until Gvili is returned, and security officials are convinced that Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad possess information on his burial site.

The Turkish issue

During meetings in Cairo, the parties discussed intensifying the search in hopes of finding Gvili before Netanyahu departs for the US. Members of the Gvili family are expected to join the trip. Trump is known to have a warm attitude toward the families of hostages, making their presence at the summit both important and symbolic.

According to diplomatic sources, the joint statement concluding the meeting is expected to include, alongside the Iranian issue, an announcement on progress toward the second phase and the establishment of international institutions for Gaza's rehabilitation, as part of the path toward ending the war. The statement is also expected to meaningfully address the Gvili case, in remarks by both Netanyahu and Trump. The precise wording and any conditions tied to advancing practical steps on the ground have not yet been finalized.

One of the main difficulties in implementing the second phase lies in the failure to assemble a multinational force, due to countries' refusal to deploy troops as long as Hamas remains armed. As a result, most of the initial progress is expected to focus on the civilian track.

According to the sources, at the end of the meeting, or after several meetings, two bodies will be formally announced: the supervising Peace Council, made up of international figures and leaders, and a new civilian governing authority composed largely of Palestinians who previously served as officials in the Palestinian Authority. Israel Hayom has reported that lists of some of these former Palestinian Authority employees have been transferred to Israel for security vetting, to ensure they are not affiliated with Hamas.

This is where the Turkish issue comes into play. Turkey is pressing the US to include its troops in the multinational stabilization force, the International Stabilization Force, and to lift Israel's veto. All the sources contacted by Israel Hayom deny that Israel has agreed to remove its veto. However, it is possible that Turkish military personnel specializing in engineering and mine clearance could be allowed to take part in units focused on those tasks.

The Americans are interested in launching the initiative through an international conference, likely to be held in the US in January, with the participation of the president, Middle Eastern leaders and partner countries. Following that, Israel, the mediators and Hamas are expected to begin discussions on the second phase, which would include the disarmament of Hamas, the transfer of governing authority and a redeployment of the Israel Defense Forces to a new defensive line.

Israel insists that there will be no withdrawal as long as Hamas and other terrorist organizations have not been disarmed and no longer pose a threat. In practice, this means that discussions on transferring civilian control will initially apply only to areas under IDF control, as well as pockets in northern and southern Gaza controlled by clans opposed to Hamas.

The meeting on Monday

Regarding Iran, Israel is expected to present Trump, during their meeting in Florida, with accumulated intelligence and assessments regarding the pace of Iran's military rehabilitation. One of Israel's goals is to secure US recognition that as long as the current regime remains in power, Iran will continue to operate terrorist organizations across the region, fuel conflicts and block what Washington views as the "mega-deal," the broad American plan for the Middle East.

Netanyahu and Trump are expected to discuss the need to confront Iran, with the ultimate objective of significantly weakening Iranian influence in the region and removing the nuclear and missile threats. Israel Hayom reported Sunday that former minister Ron Dermer assisted in preparations for the meeting, particularly on the Iranian issue. Dermer previously oversaw the Iran portfolio and was an architect of the cooperation with the US that led to American support for Israel during the war and its participation in the strike on the Fordow nuclear facility.

Issues related to Lebanon and Syria will also be on the agenda. On Lebanon, the sides are expected to discuss how to proceed with the disarmament of Hezbollah, the terrorist organization, and with civilian negotiations between Israel and the Lebanese government. On Syria, Trump is expected to seek a renewal of security talks with Israel, aimed at reaching an arrangement that would prevent military clashes and meet Israel's security needs.

The Israeli delegation is expected to include acting National Security Council head Gil Reich, who has recently grown closer to Netanyahu; political adviser Ophir Falk; military secretary Maj. Gen. Roman Gofman; and Israel's ambassador to Washington, Yechiel Leiter. Transportation Minister Miri Regev is also expected to join the trip.

The first meeting between Trump and Netanyahu is scheduled for Monday, December 29, followed by a meeting with Secretary of State Marco Rubio. Given the wide range of issues, an additional meeting between Trump and Netanyahu is expected on Tuesday or Wednesday.

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The US and Israel are closely monitoring Iran's efforts to rehabilitate its ballistic missile systems, air defense capabilities and nuclear program. There is close coordination and intelligence sharing between the two countries, including broad agreement on the need to thwart Tehran's attempts at rebuilding these capabilities. During the meeting in Florida, Israel is expected to present the intelligence dossier it has compiled, along with assessments of the pace of Iran's recovery.

From Israel's perspective, one of the key goals of the meeting is to secure US recognition that as long as the current regime remains in power in Iran, it will continue to operate terrorist organizations throughout the region, fuel conflicts and undermine Washington's broader Middle East vision, known as the "mega deal."

Israel Hayom has learned that former minister Ron Dermer assisted in preparations for the meeting, particularly on the Iranian issue. Dermer previously oversaw the Iran portfolio and was a central architect of cooperation with the US that culminated in American backing for Israel during the war and US participation in the strike on the Fordow nuclear facility.

The Israeli delegation is expected to include Gil Reich, acting head of the National Security Council, who has recently grown very close to Netanyahu; Ofir Falk, the prime minister's foreign policy adviser; Maj. Gen. Roman Gofman, the prime minister's military secretary; and Israel's ambassador to Washington, Yechiel Leiter.

A second major topic on the agenda is Gaza and the transition to the next Phase. The Americans have been unable to assemble a multinational force due to countries' refusal to deploy troops while Hamas remains armed. As a result, Washington is turning its attention to the civilian track. The expectation is that following the meeting or meetings, an announcement will be made on the launch of a reconstruction process through the establishment of a new governing civilian body, largely composed of Palestinians who previously worked for the Palestinian Authority. Israel Hayom has reported that lists of some of the candidates expected to assume civilian authority have been transferred to Israel for security vetting, to ensure they are not affiliated with Hamas.

Meanwhile, US officials were angered by Defense Minister Israel Katz's statement about establishing Nahal outposts in the Gaza Strip. A stern message was conveyed to Israel, and Katz subsequently walked back the comment. An American official sent a message immediately after the remark was published, writing simply: "WTF?"

According to the official, Israel must adhere to every detail of the Trump plan to which it agreed, in order to preserve prospects for political progress in the region and, above all, to maintain trust between Jerusalem and Washington. An Israeli source added that what he described as Katz's "slip of the tongue," made in the midst of preparations for Netanyahu's visit to the US, was extremely problematic. Israel, he said, made clear to the Americans that the defense minister had corrected his remarks and that Israel remains committed to the Trump plan.

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The discussion began with a report on NBC that was only partially accurate, claiming Iran has the capability to produce 3,000 long-range surface-to-surface missiles within a short period of time. The reality is far from that, as Iran is not capable of manufacturing missiles on that scale so quickly. Still, security officials acknowledge in conversations with Israel Hayom that Iran's motivation in recent weeks to rebuild its missile array has grown, with a particular emphasis on launchers, which are a bottleneck in the rate of missile launches toward Israel.

According to Israeli assessments, Iran is seeking to significantly increase not only its missile stockpile but, more importantly, the number of launchers, in order to carry out an opening strike that would paralyze Israel and its air defense systems through the launch of a large volume of missiles.

Another report, published by Axios, said Israel suspects that a military exercise currently underway in Iran is a cover for a surprise attack Iran is planning against Israel. Here, too, there is a kernel of truth. Israel is indeed monitoring the exercise, but according to security sources, there is no concrete intelligence indicating that Iran has decided to use it as camouflage for a surprise strike. It is reasonable to assume that whoever leaked Israeli concerns about the exercise also sought to use the publication as a warning to Iran, making clear that Israel is aware of the drill and is closely tracking it.

Iran is a "wounded animal"

This is the place to positively note the shift in Israeli thinking since October 7, and the fact that Israel is closely monitoring developments in Iran and is not once again falling into the trap of assuming Iranian capabilities have been destroyed for the long term and that the threat has been pushed far into the future. In Israel, officials understand that Iran is a "wounded animal." If before Operation Rising Lion it sought Israel's destruction and built capabilities toward that end, then after the operation its motivation has not declined but, on the contrary, has only intensified.

In recent months, Israel assessed that Iran, and Israel as well, required a certain period of recovery after Operation Rising Lion to rebuild its missile infrastructure. The prevailing assumption was therefore that it would take time before the next round. However, as noted, the intelligence Israel is closely following points to an acceleration in the rehabilitation of Iran's missile array, alongside some activity aimed at attempting to restart its nuclear program.

One of the most troubling variables that has received less media attention in recent days is Iran's highly complex internal situation, reflected, among other things, in the ongoing erosion of its currency. Israel does not rule out the possibility that, in order to cope with its domestic problems, the Iranian regime may seek to initiate an external war with Israel to divert public attention away from the country's economic and other difficulties.

In any case, senior officials told Israel Hayom that the arena most troubling Israel's defense establishment leaders at this time is Iran, and the greatest fear is a miscalculation or a surprise of which Israel would be unaware. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu addressed the issue last night, saying, "We know that Iran has been conducting exercises recently. We are following this, making the necessary preparations. And I want to make clear to Iran: any action will be met with a very harsh response."

Meanwhile, Israel's defense establishment is preparing all the intelligence and operational material Netanyahu will need for discussions with President Trump. The central problem, as analyzed in Israel, is that while Trump is committed to preventing Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons, he has not promised to remove the threat posed by surface-to-surface missiles, which Israel has also rightly defined as an existential threat. As a result, much will depend on the meeting between Netanyahu and Trump at the end of the month.

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Alaei made the remarks Saturday, stating, "If the country's intelligence service was properly focused on Israeli activity, it should have been updated on plans to assassinate Iranian commanders and scientists by aircraft."

According to the former IRGC Navy commander, the events of Operation Rising Lion demonstrated that Iran's government has not organized its intelligence apparatus "in a manner matching the intelligence and security efforts and operations of Israel."

He said he sees a need to "rebuild and deliberately focus" the Islamic Republic's intelligence organizations, adding that current institutions "do not respond to the type and level of threats" posed by Israel.

The former IRGC Navy commander continued his remarks by describing Mossad as "one of the world's strongest security and intelligence agencies." Allaei criticized the Islamic Republic's intelligence structure, saying, "In some cases, people who were known as Israeli targets all lived in the same tower, which allowed Israel to strike the building and be sanctified from the punishment of several people simultaneously."

He added that the two main institutions, the Ministry of Intelligence and IRGC Intelligence, are both involved in "internal security issues" and focus on Israel, while this model clearly has not borne fruit and has not shown the required effectiveness. Allaei proposed that one of these two institutions should focus entirely and exclusively on Israel. Earlier in October, he acknowledged the incompetence of the Islamic Republic's intelligence and security services against Israel.

These statements come against the backdrop of increased speculation in recent days regarding the future of the Islamic Republic's nuclear and missile programs and how the United States and Israel will respond to them.

This is not the first time that officials and figures identified with the Islamic Republic have recognized Israel's superiority in the 12-day war. On December 17, Masoud Pezeshkian, president of the Islamic Republic, announced that during the 12-day war, Israel had missile superiority.

He said in this context, "It is true that there were our missiles, but their missiles were more numerous, stronger, more accurate, and more convenient. It is the people who disappointed them."

On December 19, Ebrahim Azizi, chairman of parliament's National Security Committee, called the doctors' statements "unprofessional" and told them, "Weakening the country's defense capabilities is a mistake."

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The dossier to be presented to Trump and his team is aimed at forging close Israeli-US coordination to address what Jerusalem views as the root of the Iranian problem. Israeli officials believe the US president recognizes Iran as the head of the terrorism octopus in the Middle East, the aggressive force driving regional instability and the main obstacle to advancing a comprehensive regional agreement, Trump's envisioned mega-deal. Even so, Trump has so far refrained from decisive action against the regime, and the meeting with Netanyahu is intended to establish clear milestones for handling Iran.

This time, Prime Minister Netanyahu will travel without Ron Dermer, the former minister who served for years as his closest confidant in dealings with the US administration. His absence is expected to be felt keenly on this trip. Filling the role will be Israel's ambassador to Washington, Yechiel Leiter. Leiter is well regarded at the White House but does not yet enjoy the same level of deep personal connections as his predecessor. On the other hand, Dermer also carried baggage with parts of the administration, while Leiter arrives with a clean slate.

The Iranian octopus

About a month ago, Israel Hayom reported intelligence indicating that Iran, through Hezbollah, Hamas and their command centers in Turkey, has been advancing terrorist attacks in Europe and Latin America. One such plot, an attempted assassination of Israel's ambassador to Mexico, Einat Kranz-Neiger, was thwarted by local authorities after intelligence provided by Israel.

The updated Israeli assessment holds that without toppling the regime in Tehran, Israel is doomed to many more years of recurring wars, at varying intensities, against Iran's proxies, including Hezbollah, Palestinian terrorist organizations and the Houthis, and potentially against Iran itself.

The dilemma is whether to embark on a dramatic move against the regime, a step that could trigger military escalation in which Israel's air and technological superiority is expected to prevail, but at the cost of further days of paralysis for the country and its economy. On the other hand, there is a desire to bring down once and for all the Islamist terror regime that is the primary source of chaos, terrorism and wars against Israel and across the region. The collapse of the regime would greatly ease the disarmament of Hezbollah and the dismantling of its political power in Lebanon, leave Hamas and Islamic Jihad without financial backing, and likely also lead to the downfall of the Houthi regime in Yemen.

The 12-day war last June exposed the weakness and vulnerability of the radical regime in Tehran and its inability to protect its facilities and senior officials. At the same time, it created a rare opportunity to move toward toppling the dictatorship. That opportunity was not seized, in part due to the lack of American cooperation on the issue, even though the US carried out a limited strike on the Fordow nuclear facility. According to one senior security official, another key point in persuading the Americans will be Iran's involvement in the Russia-Ukraine war. Removing Iran from that equation would reduce the Russian threat to Europe's security.

Beyond the military option

How could this be done? One possible course is military action, designed to deliver another severe blow to the regime, but at a significant cost to Israel. IDF Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Eyal Zamir hinted this week that Israel may need to act against Iran again. At a ceremony marking the change of head of the Planning Directorate, Zamir said: "At the center of the IDF's threats stands the campaign against Iran. The campaign against Iran concluded with significant achievements. Our enemies once again felt the reach of the IDF's long arm, which will continue to strike wherever required, on near and distant fronts." Iran's foreign minister responded that Iran is well prepared for an Israeli attack.

A military move will likely be necessary in any case, but Israel's approach holds that it should be leveraged alongside aggressive action on other fronts.

Iran's economic situation is deteriorating by the day. The local currency, the rial, is hitting record lows; poverty is deepening; many educated Iranians are leaving the country; electricity is available only for a few hours a day; and fuel at gas stations is rationed. The water crisis is also worsening, with reservoirs closing and tap water in large parts of the country reduced to a trickle. At the same time, internal unrest is growing, even as the regime seeks to suppress it through force and brutality, imposing internet restrictions to curb its spread.

The US and Western countries could impose far harsher sanctions than those currently in place, including a complete shutdown of oil exports and a sweeping embargo on dual-use goods that aid missile development and the weapons industry. Such economic pressure is intended, first and foremost, to force concessions from the regime, both on the nuclear program and on ballistic missiles and the export of terrorism. These are demands Washington has emphasized mainly over the past year, and which Tehran has so far rejected.

Within the regime itself, voices are already being heard, including from President Masoud Pezeshkian, warning of economic and social collapse, driven in part by severe infrastructure failures in water and energy, and urging compromise. For now, these voices are being drowned out by the hardline stance of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Stronger economic pressure could change his calculus.

Actively toppling the regime would also require assisting internal Iranian opposition forces, in order to generate domestic pressure and destabilization. Such steps would at the very least force the regime to turn its attention inward, and at a more advanced stage, with external support, could lead to its actual overthrow.

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Since the end of Operation Rising Lion, intermittent reports have pointed to heightened readiness within Iran's strategic systems in anticipation of a possible escalation with Israel. While this preparedness has not yet led to renewed hostilities, it should not be dismissed lightly, particularly as it reflects anxiety and concern in Tehran about another round of fighting, and above all the possibility that Israel could once again take Iran by surprise.

Contrary to the prevailing perception, Iran's leadership is not eager for war. This stems largely from fears over the consequences of a conflict fought on Iranian soil. Tehran has long preferred to have others fight its wars for it, sparing the regime from direct confrontation, especially at a time when its strategic situation is problematic and it faces significant challenges that threaten regime stability.

That said, one of the main lessons Iran appears to have drawn from Operation Rising Lion is that it must not be caught off guard again, even if it has no interest in fighting right now. As a result, the primary trigger for another confrontation between Iran and Israel appears to lie in the danger of miscalculation: a scenario in which Iran assesses that Israel is about to attack and therefore opts to strike preemptively.

In an effort to avoid sliding into war, Tehran seems to be using heightened alert levels in its strategic systems to send a message to Israel about its readiness for confrontation, primarily as a means of deterrence should Israel be contemplating an attack. In this way, Iran is trying to dispel some of the uncertainty surrounding a potential Israeli strike and avoid the need to initiate an attack itself.

The central problem is that as Iran continues to rebuild its capabilities, Israeli threats also intensify. In the absence of a direct "red line" or communication channel between Israel and Iran that could help defuse tensions, similar to the hotline that once existed between the Soviet Union and the US, the likelihood of escalation increases every time Iran concludes that Israel may be on the verge of attacking.

Against the backdrop of statements by Israel's leadership on the Iranian issue, it is likely that the sense of unease in Tehran will only deepen over time, along with the growing risk of miscalculation.

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According to the report, Iran has rebuilt its ballistic missile production capabilities and is now manufacturing missiles at a pace and scale that could pose a significant challenge to Israel. Although Iran's production infrastructure was severely damaged during the campaign against it last June, foreign assistance, primarily from China, has enabled Tehran to resume large-scale activity, with the aim of producing about 3,000 missiles a month.

Such quantities would severely strain Israel's air defense systems, prompting Jerusalem to consider another strike to neutralize Iran's capabilities before they are operational. The report also said Israel is concerned that Iran has resumed activity at its nuclear facilities, which could again become targets, despite claims by both Trump and Netanyahu that they had already been destroyed.

Five fronts

The Iranian front is only one of five expected to dominate the talks. Netanyahu is expected to push it to the top of the agenda, while Trump will seek answers on the other fronts as well.

In Syria, Trump wants to advance a security agreement with the government of Ahmed al-Sharaa, which is demanding that Israel withdraw from territory it seized last December. Israel has repeatedly made clear that as long as the situation in Syria remains unstable and the intentions of the new government are unclear, it will maintain its presence in the Syrian Golan Heights and on Mount Hermon. Trump will have to choose between Israel's security interests and those of his favored partner al-Sharaa, who enjoys active backing from Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.

In Gaza, Trump wants to move ahead with Phase II of the agreement, which would include the deployment of forces in the Rafah area as a step toward demilitarizing and rehabilitating the Strip. Israel is currently tying any progress to the return Staff Sgt. Ran Gvili, the last Israeli hostage in Gaza. In Washington, however, there is growing doubt that Israel would allow the process to move forward even then. US officials believe Israel is looking for pretexts to derail the deal and return to fighting. They were angered by an Israel Defense Forces strike west of the Yellow Line on Friday, just as they voiced open displeasure last week following the killing of senior Hamas terrorist organization official Raad Saad.

Differences also extend to Judea and Samaria, against the backdrop of violence by far-right activists. Under pressure from moderate Sunni states, mainly Saudi Arabia, Jordan and Egypt, the administration is concerned about declared plans to establish new communities there and about the potential erosion of the status quo on the Temple Mount. Trump, who had hoped to announce a breakthrough in Israel's relations with Saudi Arabia and the broader Arab world by the end of the year, is now focused on preserving the status quo, a difficult task given that Israeli policy is also driven by domestic political considerations in an election year.

The fifth front is Lebanon, where Trump has expressed support for Israel's tough stance against Hezbollah, the Iranian-backed terrorist organization. Late last week, another meeting was held in Naqoura between Israeli and Lebanese representatives, but it failed to significantly narrow the gaps between the sides. Israel has also provided Washington with intelligence on a long list of Hezbollah violations that the Lebanese government has ignored, including cooperation between the Lebanese Armed Forces and Hezbollah.

A senior official said Saturday that Netanyahu will have to maneuver among all these fronts and may be required to make compromises on some of them. The Americans, he said, are seeking to reduce the number of active combat fronts, while Israel wants to keep all its options open. For now, IDF operational plans are on hold until after the meeting. Barring an unexpected development, a major escalation on any front appears unlikely in the immediate term.

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