Iranian military officials acknowledged tactical failures during the recent war with Israel while insisting the country's missile capabilities remain largely intact, with a senior Western diplomat stated missile sites may now be relocated deeper into eastern Iran for protection. "If we keep. "We did not think that they would target our commanders and scientists in their own homes along with their families. We miscalculated and admit that we were wrong,"  Mohammad Reza Naghdi, a Revolutionary Guards deputy commander said. Despite strikes that killed dozens of senior commanders, Naghdi claimed "Israel has not destroyed even 3% of our missile launchers," the Financial Times reported.

The Revolutionary Guards recently staged a public weapons exhibition at Tehran's National Aerospace Park, displaying ballistic missiles, hypersonic systems, and attack drones. The display sought to project military strength and reassure citizens following the 12-day war with Israel and the US that exposed significant vulnerabilities. Israeli strikes killed dozens of senior commanders and nuclear scientists, while over 1,000 people died in Iran, according to the Financial Times. Tehran argues its massive missile response forced the conflict to halt.

A 35-year-old accountant named Nasrin stopped before a Sejjil ballistic missile, remembering social media images of the weapon soaring through skies during fighting, the Financial Times reported. "Thanks to these missiles, the US and Israel knelt down before us," she remarked. "Without them, Iran would have become like Gaza."

Last month's presentation formed part of a campaign to convey strength following a war inflicting severe damage on the Islamic republic – and to assure citizens the nation remains combat-ready should necessity arise, according to the Financial Times.

Brigadier General Ali Balali of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, serving as exhibition director, told attendees: "People are seeing these missiles and drones up close, and realise they're locally made weapons to defend the homeland," the Financial Times reported. "Our capabilities place us within the club of nations known for significant missile development."

During months following the 12-day conflict, wherein the US briefly participated before negotiating a ceasefire, numerous Iranians describe existing in a state of "no war, no peace," according to the Financial Times. Iran has prohibited UN inspectors from accessing its most sensitive nuclear installations, which sustained US bombing, and has reached deadlock with Washington over resuming atomic energy program talks, the Financial Times reported. European powers have additionally reimposed sanctions.

These developments have produced mounting anxiety within Iran that renewed combat may prove inevitable rather than hypothetical, according to the Financial Times. "Our missile capability must continue to grow," stated Sara, a 19-year-old psychology student at the aerospace park. "The war could resume at any moment."

Officials insist Iran's military preparedness undergoes swift restoration, the Financial Times reported. Yet the exhibition also represented an attempt to shift public narrative away from vulnerabilities exposed during combat, when Israeli forces eliminated dozens of senior commanders and nuclear scientists in a devastating opening assault. Iranian authorities reported casualties exceeding 1,000.

By launching what it describes as more than 600 missiles in retaliation – the most extensive bombardment Israel has confronted in its history – Tehran argues it compelled the war to cease, the Financial Times reported.

Iranian officials contend the war should be assessed not solely by deaths but by financial costs Israel and the US incurred intercepting relatively inexpensive Iranian munitions and executing long-range aerial operations, including with expensive precision guided missiles, the Financial Times reported.

Shahed drones, utilized by Russia in its Ukraine war, received prominent display, alongside multiple other drones reverse engineered from US and Israeli models Iran captured, the Financial Times reported. Still, the Islamic republic has also sought to address its shortcomings. Domestically-manufactured radar systems failed to prevent Israeli jets and drones from striking Tehran. In recent YouTube interviews with hardline director Javad Mogouei, ministers and military commanders admitted Israeli tactics caught them unprepared.

"We were taken by surprise by the way the enemy operated," stated Mohammad Reza Naghdi, a Revolutionary Guards deputy commander during the war, according to the Financial Times. "We did not think that they would target our commanders and scientists in their own homes along with their families. We miscalculated and admit that we were wrong."

The most embarrassing moment occurred with Hamas political chief Ismail Haniyeh's assassination in Tehran in July 2024, when Iran declined to retaliate against Israel, the Financial Times reported. Officials now acknowledge this reflected not strategic restraint but an uncomfortable reality: Tehran recognized it lacked sufficient capabilities to respond effectively and required time for rebuilding.

Brigadier General Ali Mohammad Naeini, spokesperson for the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, informed Mogouei that Iran had worked to improve the accuracy and effectiveness of its missiles during subsequent months, according to the Financial Times.

"We are working around the clock to reach a new level of readiness," Naeini declared. "Without long-range ballistic missiles, this war would have lasted eight years [like the war with Iraq], not 12 days. It would have taken us a year, not hours, to go on the offensive."

A senior Western diplomat in Tehran stated missile sites may now relocate deeper into eastern Iran – farther from Israeli and American aircraft – for enhanced protection, the Financial Times reported. "If we keep the enemy's targets beyond its access, there won't be another war," Naghdi stated. "Their costs must exceed their achievements."

Western diplomats are also monitoring for indications whether the republic seeks foreign assistance to rebuild its military strength, the Financial Times reported. The critical question, as one expressed it, involves whether nations like Russia, China and Pakistan are offering support to Iran.

For many aerospace park visitors, the conclusion proved evident: Iran's future depended not merely on protecting but strengthening its weapons program, according to the Financial Times. "If we put aside our missile programme, we will be attacked more severely next time," stated Keyvan, a 27-year-old computer engineer. "After the war, we realise more than ever how invaluable these missiles are."

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The Ministry of Foreign Affairs reported that "while Hamas in the Gaza Strip is responsible for what takes place inside the strip, Hamas abroad is responsible for activity outside the strip, with an emphasis on the PCPA organization, which is subordinate to Hamas and serves as an arm of the movement."

The PCPA (Palestinian Conference for Palestinians Abroad) organization was established in 2018 and serves as Hamas's representative body overseas, functioning essentially as Hamas embassies. The organization allegedly operates under a civilian cover and is responsible, on Hamas' behalf, for mobilizing actions against Israel – including violent demonstrations, anti-Israel marches, and provocation and demonstration flotillas.

The first official Hamas document discovered in the Gaza Strip is a 2021 letter signed by the then-head of Hamas' political bureau, Ismail Haniyeh, which explicitly and directly urges the PCPA chairman to engage in unity. In this letter, Haniyeh publicly grants his blessing to the PCPA organization. It should be noted that the State of Israel already designated the organization as a terrorist organization in 2021 because of its role as an arm of Hamas.

The second official Hamas document includes a list of PCPA operatives, some of whom are known senior Hamas officials. Among the names on the list are Zaher Birawi, who serves as head of the Hamas sector in the PCPA in the United Kingdom and is recognized as the leader of the demonstration flotillas to the Gaza Strip over the past 15 years (No. 19 in the document), and also Saif Abu Kashak (No. 25 in the document), an organization operative in Spain. This document was found in a Hamas post in the strip and proves once more the direct connection between the flotilla leaders and Hamas.

In addition to being a PCPA operative associated with Hamas, Saif Abu Kashak serves as the chief executive officer of Cyber Neptune, a shell company in Spain that owns dozens of the ships participating in the "Samoud" flotilla. In this way, these ships are effectively held in Hamas ownership.

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The buyer, Alaa Haniyeh, who serves as CEO of a factory in southern Israel and originally hails from the Bedouin town of Tel Sheva, made clear that he bears no connection to the infamous Hamas leader after residents responded to the transaction.

Omer Council head Erez Badash responded that "all the uproar stems from the buyer's name. That's what generated the noise and commotion. When a resident named Haniyeh purchases a house, I can understand the residents' worry, since the name is associated with October 7. I don't align with calls not to sell to Arabs. We are committed to maintaining the settlement's character. The community must do its part, and the council its part... In the end, we are a free market and a democratic state."

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Where to strike?

Tehran is home to about 8.6 million residents, spread over an area of approximately 680 square kilometers – less than twice the size of the Gaza Strip. Many symbols of the regime are located in and around the city, creating an excellent backdrop that enhances the impact of any operation. Remember, eliminating a senior terrorist isn't just about removing a high-ranking figure from their organization; it's also about sending a deterrent message to the rest of the group. The psychological effect is significant, and can be amplified by choosing the right location.

In the suburbs of Iran lies the mausoleum of Ruhollah Khomeini, the founder of the Islamic Republic. The magnificent structure is an important symbol of the regime. Any action within its grounds would be a blow to the Iranian authorities, especially if a senior figure were eliminated there.

But let's assume that Iran's suburbs are too far. What's in the city center? The Azadi Tower is an iconic structure representing the "gateway" to Tehran. The tower is surrounded by a large square, where political rallies are often held – somewhat similar to the area around the Bridge of Strings in Jerusalem. The city center also hosts government buildings, including the parliament building. However, the planners of the assassination need to be cautious: choosing a sensitive site could turn a targeted killing, even a minor one, into a cause for war.

Who to eliminate?

Since the outbreak of the Swords of Iron War, a plethora of terrorists have been flocking to Tehran to consult with Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, coordinating their actions against Israel. There, you can find members of Hamas, Palestinian Islamic Jihad, the Houthis, and of course, senior officials of the Revolutionary Guards, especially the Quds Force. One of the most prominent terrorists visiting Iran is Ziad al-Nakhalah, secretary-general of the Palestinian Islamic Jihad. It's likely that Ismail Haniyeh's successor will eventually make his way to Tehran as well. Perhaps his first visit will also be his last?

From the sea, air, or land?

In the past, means of assassinating a senior figure were limited and involved risk. Using poison, an arrow, or a dagger required proximity to the target, which could, of course, lead to the assassin's capture. But the information revolution has changed all of this. Today, countries can deploy various means to pursue their enemies, sometimes with complete secrecy until the moment of impact. For example, launching a cruise missile from a submarine in the Persian Gulf is a discreet method that poses minimal risk to friendly assets. The missile flies at a low altitude, avoiding radar detection, and can follow a complex path over hundreds of kilometers until it reaches its target – which can be as small as a window in a specific guesthouse in Tehran.

Another method is, of course, an aerial strike, using precision missiles or guided bombs. Today, such munitions can even be dropped from unmanned aircraft, some of which boast flight ranges of thousands of kilometers. Sometimes the UAV is small enough to evade air defense systems.

A third method is sending an action team to the area. The assassins can use more traditional means – like a bomb under the bed, inside a phone, or in the back of a chair – or more advanced tools, like drones. These tiny devices can be placed near the target area, allowing the team to locate and attack it. Today, due to advances in artificial intelligence, the drone can even independently identify the assassination target.

A traitor is needed

No matter the chosen method – high-quality, reliable, and sometimes continuous intelligence is essential for the mission's success. Every person is unique, and no arch-villain is like another. You wouldn't want to launch missiles from the Arabian Sea only to eliminate the cleaning staff who entered the target's room while they were outside. Intelligence is crucial for locating the target, confirming their presence at the strike site, and verifying the hit and its results.

Fortunately, the Iranian regime is likely full of traitors just waiting for an opportunity. Some have ideological reasons, while others are driven by economic motives. The Islamic Revolution, which began with a promise to liberate the oppressed, has become an oppressor itself. Many Iranians are not religious, certainly not as devout as the revolution demands. They are spiritually, politically, and economically oppressed due to the regime's priorities, which invest heavily in Syria, Lebanon, and Yemen instead of Iran's water and electricity infrastructure.

Economic hardship is a fertile ground for exploitation. Offer someone in a key position a few thousand dollars, perhaps a promise of a foreign passport and a safe escape route from Iran, and you might have a traitor within the regime. But be careful – the Iranian authorities are experienced in detecting traitors and informers. Do not underestimate the ayatollahs' counterintelligence capabilities.

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Western officials anticipate Iran's retaliation for the recent assassination of a Hamas leader in Tehran to be imminent but limited in scope, according to a Wall Street Journal report. The assessment highlights Iran's economic challenges as a key factor in its reluctance to engage in a broader conflict with Israel at this time.

The Wall Street Journal reports that Iran recognizes its inability to sustain an extensive confrontation with Israel at present, a factor that constrains its response to the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran. Consequently, Western sources project that Iran's retaliation will not surpass the scale of its April operation and is expected within days.

The newspaper cites Western officials who believe that intense diplomatic pressure on Iran has successfully delayed and moderated Tehran's response. "Iran and Hezbollah will launch attacks against Israel in the coming days but doesn't believe Iran could conduct a much larger military campaign on Israel than it did in April," two US officials said.

Following reports by the Wall Street Journal that the US warned Iran of a "devastating blow" it launches an attack on Israel, it is now believed that the impending attack will be similar to the Iranian attack in April, and will take place in the coming days. pic.twitter.com/ZoDD7LqqD5

— Netanel Worthy - נתנאל וורתי (@NetanelWorthy) August 9, 2024

In a related development, a senior Israeli political figure told the Washington Post that the Arab defense coalition, which aided Israel in repelling Iran's missile and drone assault in April, now faces uncertainty. The source, reportedly involved in the alliance's formation talks, expressed concern over Saudi Arabia's and Jordan's declarations that they would prohibit any foreign forces from operating in their airspace.

Despite these statements from Amman and Riyadh, the Iranian axis apparently believes Jordan will support Israel during a crisis. Al-Akhbar, a Lebanese newspaper affiliated with Hezbollah, published an analysis suggesting that Amman intends to "blindly follow the Americans" despite its public declarations. "Jordan's regime disregards its people's public opinion and the Palestinian street," the article asserted. "Jordan's excuses lack credibility, and Amman is viewed as complicit in Israel and the United States' aggression, much like Cyprus," the article continued, highlighting claims that Cyprus has become a center for intense American activities aimed at assisting Israel.

The Arab newspaper alleged that a substantial American delegation arrived on the island this week, conducting meetings with Cyprus's security and intelligence leadership. The report also claimed that American military equipment, including anti-aircraft and anti-missile systems, was transferred to Cyprus. The newspaper quoted sources from the Cyprus government, stating they had never witnessed such a large influx of weaponry before.

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A senior American source has stated to the news site "Politico" that Iran has given up on a massive attack against Israel in response to the assassination of the former political leader of Hamas, Ismail Haniyeh, in Tehran.

According to the report, Tehran is convinced that Haniyeh's assassination was carried out in a covert operation by placing an explosive device in the hotel room where the terrorist leader was staying, and not through a direct military operation. Washington clarified to Iran that such an action is not a cause for direct military confrontation with Israel.

The senior source told the news site that Iran intends to respond to the assassination in some manner, and that a massive attack against Israel is not expected in the near future.

The source also added that Washington warned Iran of the dangers of direct confrontation with Israel, likely hinting that the United States would permit a significant Israeli response to any attack on it.

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In a brief and terse announcement, Hamas declared that Yahya Sinwar, its leader in Gaza, has been elected as the political leader of the terrorist organization, replacing Ismail Haniyeh, who was assassinated in Tehran last week.

The announcement follows recent Arab reports about entirely different candidates, with the primary ones being Khaled Mashal, the former head of the political bureau, and Abu Omar Hassan, head of the Shura Council. Both are senior officials based in Qatar.

According to Arab reports, Sinwar acted against Khaled Mashal's candidacy due to his strained relations with Iran and Syria. As head of the bureau in 2011, Mashal supported Islamist rebels in the Syrian civil war against Iran's ally, Bashar al-Assad. Consequently, Tehran resented him and opposed his candidacy to the extent that he was not invited for visits to Tehran.

It appears that Abu Omar Hassan, also known as Mohammed Ismail Darwish, was supposed to be a compromise candidate between Mashal's faction, which is closer to Sunni countries, and Sinwar's faction, which is closer to the pro-Iranian axis. Ultimately, the internal struggle was resolved in favor of the latter.

Moreover, it is possible that Sinwar used the hostage card to coerce other senior Hamas officials into supporting his candidacy. This is the only significant achievement the terrorist organization has maintained since the outbreak of the war. Without them, Hamas would not be able to secure the release of security prisoners through indirect agreements with Israel and gain legitimacy among Palestinians. It is difficult to determine the impact of this choice on negotiations and the continuation of the war. On one hand, Sinwar is described as a more problematic figure in mediation talks, while on the other hand, the risks he faces, unlike senior bureau officials in Qatar, could influence his considerations.

There may be some logic in this, as Sinwar had already made crucial decisions for Hamas even when he was ostensibly subordinate to Haniyeh.

Meanwhile, pressure from mediators is being directed towards Israel. New Egyptian Foreign Minister Badr Abdel-Atti this week asked US Secretary of State Antony Blinken to press Israel to "seriously engage in negotiations to calm the war in Gaza."

The center of gravity returns to Gaza

This marks the return of the center of gravity to Gaza after many years during which the leader of the terrorist organization resided abroad. In fact, since Sheikh Ahmed Yassin, the overseas political leadership has held the position. More than anything, it seems that the overseas Hamas bureau has acknowledged Sinwar's senior status and is now boasting about the massacre of the October 7 attack. On the ground, Sinwar's appointment is supposed to enable him to impose his decisions on some of the military wing commanders who supported a temporary ceasefire.

Hamas senior official in Lebanon, Osama Hamdan, stated that "Sinwar was unanimously chosen, which indicates that the organization understands the current phase well. The negotiations were led by the leadership and Sinwar was always present."

Hamas-affiliated commentator Ibrahim Al-Madhoun claimed that Sinwar's election is a "challenging message to Israel." He stated, "The internal election of Sinwar comes naturally because he is Haniyeh's deputy as head of Hamas in Gaza. A powerful man capable of managing affairs, it is natural for him to be elected. He and Mashal, head of Hamas abroad, were candidates."

According to Al-Madhoun, Sinwar is expected to deliver a speech or even publish a written message. He asserted that "Sinwar's election confirms that Hamas is ready to complete the confrontation to the end."

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Israeli Minister of Foreign Affairs Israel Katz slams Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan on X after he lashed out at social media platforms on Monday, accusing them of "digital fascism" for allegedly censoring images of Palestinian "martyrs" and condolences over the killing of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh.

The Information and Communication Technologies Authority blocked access to Instagram on August 2 without providing an explanation. Government officials stated the ban was imposed because Instagram failed to comply with Turkish regulations.

However, several media reports suggested the action was in response to Instagram removing posts by Turkish users expressing condolences over the killing of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran on Wednesday, July 31.

"They cannot even tolerate photographs of Palestinian martyrs and immediately ban them," Erdogan said in a speech in Ankara. "We are confronted with a digital fascism that is disguised as freedom. They are resorting to every means to hide Israel's cruelty and muzzle the Palestinian people's voices. Especially social media companies have literally become militants," he added.

Instagram has more than 57 million users in Turkey, a nation of 85 million people, according to the We Are Social media company. The Electronic Commerce Operators' Association estimates that Instagram and other social media platforms generate about 930 million Turkish lira ($27 million) worth of e-commerce per day.

The anti-Semitic dictator @RTErdogan attacked the US and Western countries yesterday, saying they were "taken hostage by the Zionists in Israel."

Erdoğan, the ones taken hostage are the citizens of Turkey, trapped in your dictatorship. You blocked Instagram for 57 million users… pic.twitter.com/EOgELcp2G4

— ישראל כ"ץ Israel Katz (@Israel_katz) August 6, 2024

Katz criticized the decision to block Instagram on social media on August 2, stating it showed how Erdogan "is turning Turkey into a dictatorship just because of his support for the murderers and rapists of Hamas, against the stance of the entire free world." On August 6, Katz responded to Erdogan's antisemitic claim Western countries were "taken hostage by the Zionists in Israel" on X, "Erdogan, the ones taken hostage are the citizens of Turkey, trapped in your dictatorship. You blocked Instagram for 57 million users in your country but left access to your own Instagram account."

Erdogan, speaking at an event on human rights education hosted by his Islamist AKP political party, went on to claim that social media websites were allowing all kinds of propaganda by groups considered terrorists in Turkey.

Turkey's Transportation and Infrastructure Minister, Abdulkadir Uraloglu, said Turkish authorities met with Instagram representatives last week and were holding a fresh round of talks on Monday.

Unlike its Western allies, Turkey does not consider Hamas a terror organization. A strong critic of Israel's military actions in Gaza, Erdogan, who met with Haniyeh in Istanbul in April, has described Hamas as a liberation movement and repeatedly compared Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to Adolf Hitler.

The Turkish leader appeared to threaten to invade Israel, saying at a meeting of his political party that Turkey must be "very strong so that Israel can't do these things to the Palestinians." In early May, Erdogan halted his country's robust trade ties with Israel.

Soon after the war in Gaza began, Turkey, a NATO member, began blocking any cooperation between NATO and Israel, which holds partner status in the military alliance, Reuters reported last week.

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The Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps declared that Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh was killed "by a short-range shot with a warhead of about 7 kg, which caused a massive explosion, outside his room."

"The act of terror of killing Haniyeh was planned and carried out by the Zionist regime (Israel) with the support of the criminal U.S. government," claim the  Iranian Corps. They further issued threats: "The adventurous and terrorist Zionist regime will receive a decisive response to this crime. Tehran's revenge will be harsh and delivered at the right time, place, and manner."

Earlier today, the permanent delegation of the Islamic Republic of Iran to the United Nations warned that Hezbollah's response to Israel's assassination of one of its senior commanders, Fuad Shukr, in a suburb of Lebanon's capital, Beirut, might lead the militant group to attack many "wider and deeper civilian and military targets within Israel."

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The Turkish Embassy in Israel, located in Tel-Aviv, lowered its national flag to half-mast as a gesture for the assassinated Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh.

In response, Israeli Foreign Minister Israel Katz ordered the summoning of the Turkish Deputy Ambassador for a stern reprimand: "Israel will not tolerate expressions of mourning for a murderer like Ismail Haniyeh, who led the terrorist organization Hamas responsible for the rapes and murders on October 7. He and his associates even offered a prayer of thanksgiving and wished success to the murderers, while watching the horrifying images on television.

"If the embassy representatives want to mourn, they should travel to Turkey and mourn with their master Erdogan, who embraces the Hamas terrorist organization and supports its murderous and horrific acts."

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