The scope of the deal is estimated at approximately $3.1 billion and is expected to complete the sales contract that Israel and Germany signed about two years ago, valued at approximately $3.6 billion. The two deals together are estimated at approximately $6.7 billion (over 20 billion shekels), Israel's largest-ever defense export deal.

Defense Ministry Director-General Maj. Gen. (Res.) Amir Baram said, "The Arrow deal expansion is another significant milestone in the deepening strategic relations between Israel and Germany, our central partner in Europe. The massive deal, valued at over $3 billion, embodies, in practical terms, the Defense Ministry's strategy to increase defense exports. The deal will strengthen Israel's position in the world as a defense superpower, will expand and accelerate Arrow production for the IDF as well, and will channel billions into strengthening the defense industries and developing the next generations of defense systems."

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Netanyahu invited Zamir and Katz to a meeting today in an effort to ease tensions, but the session ultimately split into two separate meetings. For now, the prime minister has not made a final decision, but officials close to him say that if Katz continues to act independently of Netanyahu, the decision to replace him will come more quickly.

When the current coalition was formed, the parties agreed that Katz would spend his first year as energy minister before switching roles with Eli Cohen, who was appointed foreign minister for two years. The deal also stipulated that in the coalition's final year the rotation would reverse again, with Cohen returning to the Foreign Ministry and Katz going back to the Energy Ministry.

Since then, the Israeli political landscape has shifted entirely. Katz moved from the Foreign Ministry to the Defense Ministry after Yoav Gallant was dismissed, and Sa'ar entered the Foreign Ministry. In recent days, as the original rotation date approached, ministry staff raised the question of whether the agreement still applies and whether Katz will be pushed to the Energy Ministry amid his dispute with Netanyahu. For now, officials in Netanyahu's circle are declining to comment on the details, but they hint that this is a strong possibility.

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Whether these launchers were deployed as part of Hezbollah's broader effort to restore military capabilities or as preparation for shorter-term retaliation to potential IDF-initiated operations remains unclear. Recent weeks brought reports that Israel prepares for extensive operations in southern Lebanon, given the Lebanese Armed Forces' failure (or refusal) to secure the territory.

Yesterday, Lebanese Armed Forces chief Rodolphe Haykal stated operations advance as planned, yet Israeli sources note Hezbollah rebuilds infrastructure faster than expected, forcing Israel to act independently. Israeli activity seems designed partly to pressure Lebanon's government – via the United States and France – while threatening war renewal.

In the Gaza front, IDF forces leverage Hamas ceasefire violations to impose costs on the organization. Initial responses targeted specific violations – operatives crossing the yellow line faced elimination – but now each incident triggers broader strikes (yesterday brought elimination of mid-level Hamas military wing operatives). Palestinian accusations that Israel seeks to destroy the agreement sound exaggerated currently, as Israel apparently pushes the organization toward full agreement compliance, while three deceased hostages remain in Gaza.

Israel won't risk combat resumption without explicit American approval. President Donald Trump currently embraces the agreement – he hosted released living hostages at his office last week – and actively promotes subsequent phases, including unprecedented economic deals with Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Turkey, some carrying significant Israeli implications. Jerusalem exploits this to pressure Hamas and its Doha and Ankara sponsors, though unlike the Lebanese model, Israeli operational latitude appears limited.

The Judea and Samaria front currently appears most volatile, amid sharply increased Palestinian terror activity and violent incidents – some constituting actual terror – by Jewish extremists. IDF and Shin Bet forces must allocate greater attention to this theater, whose impact exceeds its geographic boundaries: developments there could affect all other theaters and ignite them, carrying extensive political consequences. Last week, the prime minister and defense minister vowed forceful action against Jewish violence, yet senior officials report field measures remain "insufficient and weak." They describe this as "playing with fire" risking loss of control.

Behind activity across these three fronts, Israeli concern about Iranian developments grows. Various international media reports suggest that five months after the first Iran war concluded, parties edge toward a second Iran conflict. Israel particularly worries about accelerated Iranian missile production (reports indicate Iran already possesses missile quantities matching pre-war levels), plus continued refusal to cooperate with the Atomic Energy Committee on its nuclear program.

This intense security activity won't diminish significantly soon. Intensity levels may shift, but challenges persist, requiring defense forces to maintain extensive, complex deployments. Against this backdrop, government efforts advancing the draft evasion law become more conspicuous, directly opposing IDF requirements and Israeli society's needs while spotlighting government preference for immediate interests over long-term state and citizen welfare.

A survey by the Israel Democracy Institute, highlighted by Lilach Shoval, reflects this dynamic. Results underpin low public government trust, with officials perceived as evading October 7 accountability. This contrasts with the IDF, maintaining high public confidence despite troubling declines in commander trust and investigation credibility. The Israeli public views the IDF as a protected institution: preserving this status demands internal reform plus insisting government halt efforts weakening military strength.

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Netanyahu was joined by Defense Minister Israel Katz, Foreign Minister Gideon Sa'ar, IDF Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Eyal Zamir, Shin Bet Director David Zini, and National Security Advisor Gil Reich.

Israel has been holding on to parts of southern Syria ever since the regime of Bashar Assad collapsed in late 2024. The move, which involved crossing beyond the 1974 separation of forces agreement (Agreement on Disengagement between Israel and Syria) well into southern Syria, was meant to create a buffer that would prevent radical elements such as al-Qaida and ISIS from using the chaos in the country as cover for launching attacks on Israel, as well as preventing the establishment of an Iranian foothold in the vacuum left by the fleeing regime forces. Israel controls the peak of the Hermon as part of this new military presence, as well as several Druze villages.

Video: PM Netanyahu in Syria / Credit: GPO

Several months ago, Israel Hayom received unprecedented access to the Syrian Hermon sector, captured following the rebels' victory in Syria and the fall of the Assad regime. This marked first media tour of this strategically vital foothold, which has been seared in Israelis' collective memory as a crucial post since the 1973 Yom Kippur War.

The Syrian Hermon contains dozens of former Syrian positions. When then-IDF Chief of Staff Herzi Halevi and then-Northern Command Chief Uri Gordin visited the highest post – dubbed H1 by Syria and "The Peak" by the IDF – they were forced to exit immediately due to the overwhelming stench.

These hastily abandoned Syrian military positions yielded discarded uniforms, officer insignia, and substantial weaponry: explosives, mines, RPG launchers, grenades, and personal weapons. After collecting these materials, the IDF undertook extensive cleaning operations. Some positions contained apparent graves for soldiers who succumbed to disease or cold.

"On a clear day you see Damascus," one of the soldiers told Israel Hayom during the visit.

Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa (also known as Abu Mohammad al-Julani) conducted a historic visit to Washington in November, while Syria's UN Ambassador Ibrahim Olabi addressed security negotiations with Israel and claimed the agreement "could be published at any moment."

Olabi noted negotiations continue, and their nature remains primarily security-focused, based on the agreement signed after the Yom Kippur War. "The focus of the talks is mainly on border checkpoints, the number of forces on each side, and similar matters," the ambassador was quoted as saying by the Syrian news site Al-Watan.

"The discussions address several issues and concerns of both sides. If Israel has security concerns, they can be addressed. If other issues are not security-related, they require a different approach," the ambassador said, apparently referring to the Druze issue in the Druze Mountain region, who were attacked by the Damascus regime.

The ambassador described Syrian President al-Sharaa's visit to Washington as a "historic opportunity" and stated that his country aims to establish "a space of peace, security, and stability on its southern border."

However, al-Sharaa has recently stressed that no peace would take place unless Israel withdraws from the territory it had taken during the Six-Day War, meaning that a return to the Assad-era lines established after the 1973 war were not sufficient.

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The Ministry of Defense decision comes against the backdrop of global demand for Israeli developments that proved themselves in the war, serving as a tool to strengthen the defense industry and create additional budget sources for the defense establishment that now needs to refill stockpiles, restore the IDF to full readiness, and prepare for future surprises in the coming conflicts.

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Such fears persist regarding the three remaining fallen hostages in Gaza: Dror Or, Ran Gvili, and Sudthisak Rinthalak. Hamas committed in the deal to return them as well, but it's unclear if it can fulfill that. Senior officials said there are "certain indications" about the possible location of one of the three, though they admitted that for the other two "we're in total darkness."

Israel keeps up the pressure on Hamas over the hostages, mainly through the United States. But now it must also let Washington push forward with its plan for shifting to the next stage of the agreement. The UN Security Council is set to discuss on Monday the creation of a "stabilization force" in Gaza. The Americans are working feverishly to recruit countries that will join the force to be deployed in the Strip (initially along the Egyptian border in Rafah), and it could create several significant headaches for Israel.

The main headache concerns the force's makeup. In Israel, they claim it will get veto power to block soldiers from Turkey or Qatar, but the draft resolution that was published suggests only a "close consultation" with it. Beyond that, the security arrangements to be set opposite it also worry, since for the first time Israel's security will be "privatized" and handed over to foreign forces in a way that could even limit the IDF's freedom of action.

The Americans enjoy significant backing from leading countries in the Arab and Muslim world. Eight of them issued open support for the draft (Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Indonesia, Pakistan, Egypt, Jordan, Qatar, and Turkey), which also explicitly addresses the issue of the Palestinian state.

It's likely the topic will come up too in this week's meeting between President Donald Trump and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, which will include another sensitive issue for Israel's security – the possible sale to Saudi Arabia of stealth fighter jets of the F-35 type, which could significantly erode Israel's qualitative edge in the region.

In Washington, they're trying to tie all these moves together, including normalization between Saudi Arabia and Israel (which will involve additional countries). But it seems there's room for concern given the gap between Trump's ambitious vision and the reality on the ground, including in Gaza where Hamas still holds sway.

Over the weekend, The New York Times reported that Trump's envoy, Steve Witkoff, is set to meet again with the head of Hamas's political arm, Khalil al-Haya. The two met in Sharm el-Sheikh before the signing of the hostage return and war ceasefire deal, and it turns out Washington maintains a hotline with the organization it committed to dismantling.

Into this diplomatic-security focus also spills the reality in Judea and Samaria. In recent weeks, there has been a sharp rise in the number of violence incidents by Jewish extremists against Palestinians, some of which included harm to IDF forces as well. In the defense establishment, they explain the increase with the olive harvest season, but they warn that "we're a step away from a Duma 2," referring to the tragic Jewish terrorism that killed several family members in a Palestinian village several years ago.

These warnings were voiced in several situation assessments, and even passed on to the political echelon including the possible implications – from an outbreak of a broad wave of violence in Judea and Samaria, and up to a collapse of the Gaza ceasefire and broad clashes with the Muslim world.

Meanwhile, the political leadership maintains silence. The prime minister and the defense minister, who excel at commenting on every matter and issue, say not a word on this explosive topic, which also gets coverage in the international media and statements from foreign statesmen. The motives for their silence are clear – the fear of alienating the political base – but its meaning is a signal to the rioters that they have backing from the country's leadership to continue their actions.

This leadership cowardice, which contradicts the clear interest of the state, is a direct continuation of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Katz's conduct on the exemption from the Haredi conscription law issue being advanced apace, and to a slew of additional matters – the judicial legislation, the legislation against the media, the intense focus on a pardon for Netanyahu – in all of which the public interest is pushed aside. Don Corleone, seated as godfather, already pointed out that everything is personal: In Israel 2025, everything is personal, and also political.

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The organization gained international attention during the Israel-Hamas war through maritime and Israeli strikes they claimed aimed to force Israel's combat withdrawal, The Associated Press reported. Following the Oct. 10 ceasefire start, no attacks have been attributed to the group. Though rebels insisted operations focused on Israel-affiliated vessels, targeted ships demonstrated limited connection to the conflict. The campaign killed at least nine maritime personnel, sank four vessels, and disrupted Red Sea commerce previously handling approximately $1 trillion in goods annually before hostilities, The Associated Press noted. The latest strike hit Dutch-flagged cargo ship Minervagracht on Sept. 29, killing one crew member and wounding another.

Egypt's Suez Canal, linking Red Sea waters to the Mediterranean, experienced severe transit disruption from the strikes, The Associated Press reported. The waterway provides critical hard currency for Egypt, generating $10 billion in 2023 as the nation's economy struggles. The International Monetary Fund noted in July that rebel operations "reduced foreign exchange inflows from the Suez Canal by $6 billion in 2024." Despite modest recent traffic increases during the attack lull, many shippers continue routing around Africa via the Cape of Good Hope to avoid Red Sea waters and the Gulf of Aden, The Associated Press noted.

US forces launched intensive bombing operations against the rebels earlier this year that President Donald Trump halted before his Middle East visit, The Associated Press reported. The Biden administration similarly conducted strikes, including deploying America's B-2 stealth bombers targeting what officials described as underground rebel facilities.

The rebels have escalated Saudi Arabia threats and detained dozens from UN agencies and aid groups as prisoners, alleging without evidence they were spies – claims fiercely denied by the UN and others, The Associated Press reported. Israeli forces previously warned of escalated responses to any renewed maritime attacks.

Shipping industry analysts project cautious resumption of Red Sea routes contingent on sustained ceasefire stability, with insurance costs and security concerns continuing to influence routing decisions, according to maritime security sources cited by The Associated Press. The rebels' conditional suspension leaves commercial shipping vulnerable to rapid campaign resumption if Gaza hostilities restart.

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Some will say this is precisely Netanyahu's aim – to leave the IDF holding all responsibility. To hope time passes and the public grows weary or forgets, and the reality-mandated national investigation becomes unnecessary by itself because responsibility was already taken. But yesterday's military investigation of investigations demonstrates exactly why a state commission of inquiry remains reality-mandated.

The flaws discovered are extensive, but they fall short without a necessary examination of interfaces within the security establishment (between the IDF, Shin Bet and police) and between it and the political level – without which carrying out the mandated national correction preventing a similar catastrophe in the future won't be possible.

What emerged yesterday isn't an investigation in the straightforward sense. The team led by Maj. Gen. (ret.) Sami Turgeman didn't restart the process from zero, but examined what already happened across 25 main investigations. His work served two purposes – ensuring findings and conclusions are precise so the IDF has a calibrated compass forward, and stamping them with a seal that strengthens public confidence in the military as an institution that probes itself and extracts lessons.

Turgeman executed two significant moves distinguishing his work. First, a detailed examination of each investigation, while marking its professionalism – green for successful and credible; orange for needing improvements; and red for flawed investigations that can and should be redone. Second, horizontal integration across all investigations, previously examined separately, and crafting conclusions enabling for the first time examining the breakdown not just by viewing each unit alone but from an elevated perspective of the entire IDF.

The findings Turgeman unveiled yesterday to the General Staff (some triggering intense debate among the generals) aren't startling. Their essence is obvious from the outcome itself – breakdown in deterrence, breakdown in warning, breakdown in defense. One by one, every pillar of Israel's security doctrine crumbled. Even the fourth pillar, the offensive one, faltered for extended hours because the IDF wasn't ready to mount a response to a surprise assault of this scale.

One could think that a single element, in a single location, at a single instant, might have sufficed to avert the tragedy, but that's a flawed conclusion – the root of the breakdown Turgeman highlights runs exceedingly deep and wide, and paradigmatic. It cuts across branches, corps, and commands, and naturally, commanders. Even had October 7 been averted on October 7, it would have occurred at another moment, because the system didn't just doze off at a particular point during guard duty – it was engulfed in profound and years-long dormancy.

Now the IDF faces lesson-learning. Some will contend this suffices – if more intelligence sources exist in Gaza (and other theaters), more tanks line the barriers, more commanders staff headquarters – the next tragedy gets prevented. Accepting only that would likewise be a mistaken conclusion. The IDF doesn't exist in an isolated universe. Its operations extend government policy. Without it being complete – in investigation, in systemic learning, in embedding lessons – no insurance policy for national security exists.

The government, as noted, avoids this. IDF Chief Eyal Zamir handed it double ammunition yesterday – first when he assumed (rightfully) responsibility for the IDF's breakdowns; second when he stated establishing "an external, systemic, multidisciplinary, integrative commission of inquiry" is necessary. His avoidance of the phrase "state commission of inquiry" – which he backed previously – shows Zamir picks his confrontations with the political level, but might leave the State of Israel, and the IDF inside it, without adequate answers to the more crucial battle.

Zamir, more than anyone, recognizes that in numerous ways Israel absorbed the lesson, but in other vital ways it hasn't. The decision-making mechanism today functions worse than it operated on October 7's eve, the Diplomatic-Security Cabinet operates partially and the National Security Council remains present-absent. The IDF (and Shin Bet) stand as the sole entities genuinely working to extract lessons – those accountable stepped down and departed, the investigations got executed, and the conclusions will get embedded.

For this cause, the IDF chief would benefit by avoiding dismissing the Military Intelligence Directorate head, Maj. Gen. Shlomi Binder. The shortcomings in his performance as Operations Division head that Saturday were certainly substantial, but the elapsed time, his achievement in his current role and the General Staff's fragility demand stability. This might irritate certain politicians, but they're the last ones who can speak a word about it.

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The statement clarified that a criminal investigation has been launched regarding the video's publication, with potential involvement of Military Advocate General personnel being probed. Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Eyal Zamir approved the chief military prosecutor's leave request, "pending clarification of additional details on the matter," the statement said.

In July 2024, the Military Police initiated an investigation into suspected abuse of a Palestinian terrorist at the Sde Teiman facility. Throughout the investigation, a video recording the soldiers' purported conduct leaked to media outlets, displaying an assault on the terrorist by five reserve soldiers at the Sde Teiman detention center. The accused soldiers rejected the suspicions, asserting they acted to control a terrorist who assaulted them and that the force they employed was proportionate. Right-wing sources argued the leak harms Israel as a moral nation.

Defense Minister Israel Katz responded to the decision, saying, "Chief of Staff Eyal Zamir informed me that following a criminal investigation proceeding in the Sde Teiman recording leak matter, and examination of Military Prosecution personnel involvement in the matter, the decision was made that the chief military prosecutor would take leave. I welcome and back the decision – we're talking about a serious matter that generated a blood libel against IDF soldiers domestically and internationally, and it must be examined and investigated completely."

The attorney general's office also announced an investigation would commence, with the High Court of Justice updated on the development. "Following information obtained recently, the attorney general decided to instruct the opening of a criminal investigation concerning offenses related to publishing the video from the Sde Teiman matter. At this stage, as the investigation continues, no additional details can be disclosed."

MK Tzvi Succot reacted on X to the IDF spokesperson's announcement regarding the investigation's launch. "Amid Israel's most difficult war in history, the chief military prosecutor opted to accuse IDF fighters as though they participated in raping terrorists. The video leaked from investigation materials in the chief military prosecutor's custody, along with the groundless charges the chief military prosecutor circulated about the fighters, transformed into insane anti-Israel propaganda globally during wartime – straight to jail!"

Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Justice Yariv Levin also commented, noting the timing with legislation passage dividing the attorney general's position. "It's no coincidence that right after passing the bills concerning legal counsel to the government in preliminary Knesset reading, we learned about the decision to authorize launching a criminal investigation in the Sde Teiman matter, and about the chief military prosecutor's leave. Appointing the Shin Bet chief and the Public Ombudsman for Judges, along with promoting legal legislation and the resolute struggle to reveal truth and apply equal enforcement, are generating historic transformation before our eyes. I'll persist fearlessly until justice is entirely achieved."

National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir stated, "The investigation concerning Sde Teiman and the chief military prosecutor's 'leave' departure represents a dramatic shift in protecting democracy from criminal behavior disguised as legal action. Everyone implicated in the matter should be held accountable, including the Attorney General herself, who initially attempted to sabotage the investigation with a deceptive High Court of Justice statement."

At Honenu, the organization defending several soldiers charged in the Sde Teiman matter, officials praised the investigation's opening regarding the video leak. The organization now weighs stopping the mediation procedure in the case and demanding indictment withdrawal against Unit 100 fighters. Attorneys Adi Keidar, Nati Rom, and Moshe Polsky described this as an essential measure, arguing the video leak aimed to tarnish the fighters' standing and harmed the IDF's and state's reputation.

Simultaneously, Honenu's lawsuit against Channel 12 News, reporter Guy Peleg, and the IDF for 2 million shekels ($564,000) in defamation damages regarding the video's publication is currently under consideration. The attorneys additionally insisted that all personnel connected to the matter's investigation be removed from their roles.

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Hayman was murdered by the Hamas terror organization on October 7, 2023, during the Nova music festival, and her body was abducted to the Gaza Strip. Inbar, 27, was confirmed to be dead on December 15, 2023. She is survived by her parents and a brother.

IDF representatives informed the families of Inbar Hayman and Sergeant Major Muhammad Al-Atresh that their loved ones have been brought back for burial.

According to the information and intelligence available to the IDF:
- Inbar Hayman, 27, was murdered by Hamas during the…

— Israel Defense Forces (@IDF) October 16, 2025

Al-Atrash, from the Bedouin Sawaa tribe, served as a tracker in the Northern Brigade in the Gaza border area, fell in battle on the morning of October 7, and his body was abducted by the Hamas terror organization. Muhammad, 39 at the time of his death, had his death confirmed on June 24, 2024. He left behind parents, siblings, two wives, and 13 children.

"The IDF expresses deep condolences to the families and continues to make every effort to return all hostages to their families for a proper and dignified burial. Hamas is required to fulfill its part of the agreement and make the necessary efforts to return all the hostages to their families and to a dignified burial," the IDF in a statement.

The Petah Tikva Municipality and Mayor Rami Greenberg stated, "We send sincere condolences and strengthen the hands of the Hayman family with the return of Inbar to eternal rest in a proper burial in Petah Tikva. Our heart, together with the hearts of the residents, is with the family in this difficult and painful hour, and we will continue to accompany and support as needed."

Meanwhile, a senior advisor in the American administration stated on Wednesday that the US is working to achieve initial stability in Gaza and that a plan is being prepared to establish an international stabilization force that will enter the Strip. Many countries have already expressed willingness to participate, including Indonesia.

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