On the night between Friday and Saturday morning, Oct. 7, 2023, as the skies over communities near the Gaza border filled with thousands of rockets and terrorists infiltrated Israel, the country's vaunted intelligence "concept" collapsed. But the real story emerging from months of conversations begins much earlier.

The testimony obtained by Israel Hayom, some of it highly classified and touching the most sensitive nerves of Israel's security and diplomatic systems, indicates that the warning signs were not merely on the wall but were shouted behind closed doors at the Foreign Ministry and the National Security Council two weeks before the catastrophe.

The information presented here was received in a meeting in central Israel with a senior Egyptian source. According to him, two weeks before Oct. 7 an Egyptian delegation arrived at the Foreign Ministry to meet with their Israeli diplomatic counterparts and warn that "the situation in Gaza is explosive."

"We said everything could blow up," the senior Egyptian source told us. "We told our Israeli counterparts that the situation in Gaza and the West Bank was extremely volatile and could lead to escalation."

A "very sensitive" situation

Two weeks earlier, Israel was largely consumed by internal turmoil over judicial reform and by debates over gender-separated prayer in Tel Aviv's Dizengoff Square.

Attention was diverted away from security matters. The senior Egyptian source added: "In Israel they told us everything was under control and that there would soon be an arrangement." There was indeed an arrangement, but on Oct. 7 it collapsed and disaster struck.

To corroborate the information, we approached several sources in the Foreign Ministry who dealt with Egypt. They could not specify the exact date of the meeting but confirmed to Israel Hayom that messages had arrived from Egypt before Oct. 7 warning that the situation with the Palestinians was very sensitive and could explode.

Other sources inside and outside the ministry confirm that the Egyptians were "extremely uneasy" and repeatedly tried to convey messages, based on their deep understanding of Gaza, an understanding that at that moment appears to have surpassed Israel's own.

One source confirmed that Egypt frequently conveyed messages to the Foreign Ministry that the situation with the Palestinians in general and in Gaza in particular was volatile and required resolution rather than mere management of the conflict. He added that when sensitive information arrives, it is immediately reported to more senior officials within and beyond the ministry, meaning the Prime Minister's Office.

A mysterious plane at Ben Gurion

On Sept. 26, 2023, while Israel's leadership gathered for a ceremony marking 50 years since the Yom Kippur War, an episode unfolded that seemed lifted from a spy novel. A plane linked to Egyptian intelligence landed in an isolated area of Ben Gurion Airport, remained on the runway for a short time, and took off back to Cairo.

Officials familiar with special operations protocols believe that an urgent meeting took place aboard the plane during that brief window. At those same hours, then National Security Council head Tzachi Hanegbi, the official meant to maintain continuous contact with Egyptian intelligence chief Abbas Kamel, was absent from the ceremony. Was he dealing with the next war at that moment? The National Security Council declined to comment.

It should be added that Kamel maintained frequent contact with senior Israeli officials, including ministers, and supported the development of these ties. This was evident publicly in late 2021, when then-economy minister Orna Barbivai met Kamel to advance economic relations.

A day later, in Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's office, easing measures and arrangements for the Gaza Strip were approved, according to a source who was present in the room.

The National Security Council and Netanyahu

It was not only the Foreign Ministry. Two Israeli political sources confirmed to me that an Egyptian source delivered a focused warning to the National Security Council. The warning referred to "something big" that was coming. This information, parts of which were previously reported in Yedioth Ahronoth and the foreign press, was also confirmed to us.

According to these sources, a senior Egyptian source warned the National Security Council before Oct. 7 of the impending disaster. Dr. Nimrod Novik made similar remarks to journalist Amir Oren on the podcast "Afrakasset."

The questions that remain open are those that should keep every Israeli awake at night, chief among them what Prime Minister Netanyahu knew. While the information flowed, according to testimony, to the Foreign Ministry and the National Security Council, which reports directly to the prime minister and is headed by his personal adviser, Netanyahu continued to project business as usual.

Sources involved in the details argue that it is inconceivable that such sensitive information from Egypt, especially a warning about "something big," was not placed on the prime minister's desk by the National Security Council head or professional officials. The sources we spoke with stressed that information of this kind does not remain at their level but is passed upward.

Was the information described in these testimonies swallowed by the "conceptual blindness" surrounding Qatari money and the policy of arrangements with Gaza? Did the political echelon interpret the Egyptian warnings as "political," given tensions with the right-wing government and Temple Mount issues? And most importantly, who in the chain of command decided that "everything is under control, an arrangement is coming"?

Publicly, after then-foreign minister Eli Cohen met his Egyptian counterpart in New York, Egypt reported discussions about "the Palestinian situation," while Israel reported "regional cooperation." The gap between Egypt's public and secret warnings and Israel's complacency is where the failure was born.

When the three points are connected — the delegation at the Foreign Ministry, the mysterious plane at Ben Gurion, and the focused warning to the National Security Council — the testimony paints a chilling picture of a warning that was allegedly missed. The failure was not only intelligence-related but systemic: a state that refused to listen to those who understood its enemy better than it did.

Responses

The Foreign Ministry said: "This is false. There was no such meeting and no such information was conveyed. Any other publication is fake news serving an unknown actor."

The National Security Council responded: "The council has no information about a general warning from Egypt that was conveyed to the Foreign Ministry regarding the situation in Gaza, and contrary to the claims, no concrete warning was passed to the council regarding the Oct. 7 attack or the likelihood of war. Additionally, we are unaware of an Egyptian plane that arrived in Israel on the date in question, and the matter is unrelated to the National Security Council head's schedule."

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Israel Hayom has learned that under the American plan, which Israel is aligning itself with, the meeting will address details of negotiations on the second phase of the deal. At the center of these talks are the disarmament of Hamas and the establishment of alternative governing bodies in Gaza. These include an overseeing body, the "Peace Council," to be headed by Trump, and a civilian governing authority largely composed of Palestinian officials from Gaza.

On Sunday, an Israeli delegation headed by Gal Hirsch, the government's coordinator for hostages and missing persons, traveled to Cairo along with representatives of the Shin Bet security agency and the Mossad. Their goal was to accelerate efforts to locate the body of the last remaining hostage, Ran Gvili. Israel insists it will not move forward to the second phase of the deal until Gvili is returned, and security officials are convinced that Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad possess information on his burial site.

The Turkish issue

During meetings in Cairo, the parties discussed intensifying the search in hopes of finding Gvili before Netanyahu departs for the US. Members of the Gvili family are expected to join the trip. Trump is known to have a warm attitude toward the families of hostages, making their presence at the summit both important and symbolic.

According to diplomatic sources, the joint statement concluding the meeting is expected to include, alongside the Iranian issue, an announcement on progress toward the second phase and the establishment of international institutions for Gaza's rehabilitation, as part of the path toward ending the war. The statement is also expected to meaningfully address the Gvili case, in remarks by both Netanyahu and Trump. The precise wording and any conditions tied to advancing practical steps on the ground have not yet been finalized.

One of the main difficulties in implementing the second phase lies in the failure to assemble a multinational force, due to countries' refusal to deploy troops as long as Hamas remains armed. As a result, most of the initial progress is expected to focus on the civilian track.

According to the sources, at the end of the meeting, or after several meetings, two bodies will be formally announced: the supervising Peace Council, made up of international figures and leaders, and a new civilian governing authority composed largely of Palestinians who previously served as officials in the Palestinian Authority. Israel Hayom has reported that lists of some of these former Palestinian Authority employees have been transferred to Israel for security vetting, to ensure they are not affiliated with Hamas.

This is where the Turkish issue comes into play. Turkey is pressing the US to include its troops in the multinational stabilization force, the International Stabilization Force, and to lift Israel's veto. All the sources contacted by Israel Hayom deny that Israel has agreed to remove its veto. However, it is possible that Turkish military personnel specializing in engineering and mine clearance could be allowed to take part in units focused on those tasks.

The Americans are interested in launching the initiative through an international conference, likely to be held in the US in January, with the participation of the president, Middle Eastern leaders and partner countries. Following that, Israel, the mediators and Hamas are expected to begin discussions on the second phase, which would include the disarmament of Hamas, the transfer of governing authority and a redeployment of the Israel Defense Forces to a new defensive line.

Israel insists that there will be no withdrawal as long as Hamas and other terrorist organizations have not been disarmed and no longer pose a threat. In practice, this means that discussions on transferring civilian control will initially apply only to areas under IDF control, as well as pockets in northern and southern Gaza controlled by clans opposed to Hamas.

The meeting on Monday

Regarding Iran, Israel is expected to present Trump, during their meeting in Florida, with accumulated intelligence and assessments regarding the pace of Iran's military rehabilitation. One of Israel's goals is to secure US recognition that as long as the current regime remains in power, Iran will continue to operate terrorist organizations across the region, fuel conflicts and block what Washington views as the "mega-deal," the broad American plan for the Middle East.

Netanyahu and Trump are expected to discuss the need to confront Iran, with the ultimate objective of significantly weakening Iranian influence in the region and removing the nuclear and missile threats. Israel Hayom reported Sunday that former minister Ron Dermer assisted in preparations for the meeting, particularly on the Iranian issue. Dermer previously oversaw the Iran portfolio and was an architect of the cooperation with the US that led to American support for Israel during the war and its participation in the strike on the Fordow nuclear facility.

Issues related to Lebanon and Syria will also be on the agenda. On Lebanon, the sides are expected to discuss how to proceed with the disarmament of Hezbollah, the terrorist organization, and with civilian negotiations between Israel and the Lebanese government. On Syria, Trump is expected to seek a renewal of security talks with Israel, aimed at reaching an arrangement that would prevent military clashes and meet Israel's security needs.

The Israeli delegation is expected to include acting National Security Council head Gil Reich, who has recently grown closer to Netanyahu; political adviser Ophir Falk; military secretary Maj. Gen. Roman Gofman; and Israel's ambassador to Washington, Yechiel Leiter. Transportation Minister Miri Regev is also expected to join the trip.

The first meeting between Trump and Netanyahu is scheduled for Monday, December 29, followed by a meeting with Secretary of State Marco Rubio. Given the wide range of issues, an additional meeting between Trump and Netanyahu is expected on Tuesday or Wednesday.

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According to the IDF Spokesperson's Unit, Israeli Air Force jets struck several Hezbollah launch sites in multiple areas across southern Lebanon. The strikes destroyed military structures and terrorist infrastructure that had been used by Hezbollah in recent weeks.

BREAKING:

Israel currently bombing areas in southern Lebanon right now. pic.twitter.com/MKC4g9O4SO

— S2FUncensored (@S2FUncensored) December 24, 2025

The IDF said the very existence of the launch sites constituted a violation of the understandings between Israel and Lebanon, and stressed that the military would continue to act to remove any threat to the State of Israel and to thwart Hezbollah's efforts to rebuild its capabilities.

Meanwhile, the Lebanese television channel Al Mayadeen reported that the Israeli Air Force carried out strikes in the Tabbana area of the Sidon district. Additional reports from Lebanon said strikes were also carried out in the Namiriya area of the Nabatiyeh district.

The IDF said the operation involved 11 munitions, targeting Hezbollah launch sites, infrastructure and additional military assets.

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Zoqout belonged to the finance department of Hamas' military wing and was responsible during the past year for raising tens of millions of dollars and transferring them to the organization's military wing to enable the continuation of the fighting against Israel.

Zoqout was killed together with Sa'ad, the head of production headquarters for Hamas' military wing, during Operation "Last Supper." Sa'ad was regarded as the No. 2 figure in the terrorist organization and one of the architects of the October 7 massacre. In his role, Sa'ad established the Nukhba units, shaped the "Jericho Wall" plan on which Hamas based its preparations for the October 7 massacre, and was responsible for weapons production for the military wing.

في نشاط مشترك لجيش الدفاع وجهاز الأمن العام (الشاباك)، قبل أسبوعين تم القضاء على المخرب عبد الحي زقوت من حماس من سكان مدينة غزة، والذي ينتمي إلى قسم الأموال في الذراع العسكرية للمنظمة. تم القضاء عليه أثناء تواجده في مركبته، إلى جانب المدعو رائد سعد.

خلال العام الأخير، كان… pic.twitter.com/PHX5LAP20e

— افيخاي ادرعي (@AvichayAdraee) December 24, 2025

Sources told the Saudi channel Al-Hadath that Israeli Air Force fighter jets carried out an attack on Sa'ad's vehicle, striking it with three missiles fired one after the other. In response to the assassination, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Israel Katz issued a joint statement saying they had decided to eliminate Sa'ad in response to the detonation of a Hamas explosive device that wounded IDF forces earlier that day in the "yellow zone" of the Gaza Strip.

According to the statement, Sa'ad was "one of the architects of the October 7 massacre and in recent days had been engaged in rebuilding the terrorist organization and in planning and carrying out attacks against Israel, as well as reconstituting an attack force, in blatant violation of the ceasefire rules."

The IDF spokesperson stressed that "the IDF and the Shin Bet will continue their efforts to sever terror financing channels and will act against anyone involved in terrorism or in assisting the advancement of terror plots against the State of Israel."

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The US and Israel are closely monitoring Iran's efforts to rehabilitate its ballistic missile systems, air defense capabilities and nuclear program. There is close coordination and intelligence sharing between the two countries, including broad agreement on the need to thwart Tehran's attempts at rebuilding these capabilities. During the meeting in Florida, Israel is expected to present the intelligence dossier it has compiled, along with assessments of the pace of Iran's recovery.

From Israel's perspective, one of the key goals of the meeting is to secure US recognition that as long as the current regime remains in power in Iran, it will continue to operate terrorist organizations throughout the region, fuel conflicts and undermine Washington's broader Middle East vision, known as the "mega deal."

Israel Hayom has learned that former minister Ron Dermer assisted in preparations for the meeting, particularly on the Iranian issue. Dermer previously oversaw the Iran portfolio and was a central architect of cooperation with the US that culminated in American backing for Israel during the war and US participation in the strike on the Fordow nuclear facility.

The Israeli delegation is expected to include Gil Reich, acting head of the National Security Council, who has recently grown very close to Netanyahu; Ofir Falk, the prime minister's foreign policy adviser; Maj. Gen. Roman Gofman, the prime minister's military secretary; and Israel's ambassador to Washington, Yechiel Leiter.

A second major topic on the agenda is Gaza and the transition to the next Phase. The Americans have been unable to assemble a multinational force due to countries' refusal to deploy troops while Hamas remains armed. As a result, Washington is turning its attention to the civilian track. The expectation is that following the meeting or meetings, an announcement will be made on the launch of a reconstruction process through the establishment of a new governing civilian body, largely composed of Palestinians who previously worked for the Palestinian Authority. Israel Hayom has reported that lists of some of the candidates expected to assume civilian authority have been transferred to Israel for security vetting, to ensure they are not affiliated with Hamas.

Meanwhile, US officials were angered by Defense Minister Israel Katz's statement about establishing Nahal outposts in the Gaza Strip. A stern message was conveyed to Israel, and Katz subsequently walked back the comment. An American official sent a message immediately after the remark was published, writing simply: "WTF?"

According to the official, Israel must adhere to every detail of the Trump plan to which it agreed, in order to preserve prospects for political progress in the region and, above all, to maintain trust between Jerusalem and Washington. An Israeli source added that what he described as Katz's "slip of the tongue," made in the midst of preparations for Netanyahu's visit to the US, was extremely problematic. Israel, he said, made clear to the Americans that the defense minister had corrected his remarks and that Israel remains committed to the Trump plan.

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Speaking at the conclusion of the summit with Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis and Cypriot President Nikos Christodoulides, Netanyahu said: "To those who think they can rebuild their empires, I say forget it. It won't happen."

The Greek newspaper Liberal wrote that Ankara is concerned by the fact that the Greece–Cyprus–Israel partnership directly challenges Turkey's strategy in the eastern Mediterranean. "This is a form of cooperation, a network if you will, that will limit Turkey's unilateral actions in the region," the paper said. "Netanyahu's message to Turkey says it all. The balance of power in the Mediterranean has not been overturned, but it has been reshaped."

Another Greek outlet, Fema, wrote on Tuesday that Netanyahu's message to Erdogan may please Greece, but was primarily intended as a response to Erdogan's repeated statements in recent years expressing a desire to "liberate Jerusalem." "We should not forget that the Ottoman Empire ruled not only Greece, but also Jerusalem," the paper noted.

In Turkey, the reaction was sharply critical. The daily Milliyet branded the summit an "axis of evil," while Hurriyet ran a headline describing it as an "anti-Turkish alliance." According to Hurriyet, "The leaders of Greece and the Greek Cypriots went to Netanyahu because what unites them is anti-Turkish sentiment. Netanyahu, for his part, is concerned about Turkey's growing influence in the eastern Mediterranean, and therefore convened the summit."

At the same time, many Greeks criticized Mitsotakis for letting Netanyahu "do the talking" rather than delivering a strong statement himself. "The two cowardly chickens from Greece and Cyprus hid behind Netanyahu's back," wrote a user named Fotis. "They should learn a thing or two from Israel about standing on the front line."

There was also at least one dissenting voice seeking to cool the enthusiasm with a dose of historical perspective. "I don't understand what everyone is so excited about," wrote a user named Anthony. "After all, the Jews hate the Greeks. Even now they are celebrating an eight-day holiday marking their supposed victory over the Greeks."

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The discussion began with a report on NBC that was only partially accurate, claiming Iran has the capability to produce 3,000 long-range surface-to-surface missiles within a short period of time. The reality is far from that, as Iran is not capable of manufacturing missiles on that scale so quickly. Still, security officials acknowledge in conversations with Israel Hayom that Iran's motivation in recent weeks to rebuild its missile array has grown, with a particular emphasis on launchers, which are a bottleneck in the rate of missile launches toward Israel.

According to Israeli assessments, Iran is seeking to significantly increase not only its missile stockpile but, more importantly, the number of launchers, in order to carry out an opening strike that would paralyze Israel and its air defense systems through the launch of a large volume of missiles.

Another report, published by Axios, said Israel suspects that a military exercise currently underway in Iran is a cover for a surprise attack Iran is planning against Israel. Here, too, there is a kernel of truth. Israel is indeed monitoring the exercise, but according to security sources, there is no concrete intelligence indicating that Iran has decided to use it as camouflage for a surprise strike. It is reasonable to assume that whoever leaked Israeli concerns about the exercise also sought to use the publication as a warning to Iran, making clear that Israel is aware of the drill and is closely tracking it.

Iran is a "wounded animal"

This is the place to positively note the shift in Israeli thinking since October 7, and the fact that Israel is closely monitoring developments in Iran and is not once again falling into the trap of assuming Iranian capabilities have been destroyed for the long term and that the threat has been pushed far into the future. In Israel, officials understand that Iran is a "wounded animal." If before Operation Rising Lion it sought Israel's destruction and built capabilities toward that end, then after the operation its motivation has not declined but, on the contrary, has only intensified.

In recent months, Israel assessed that Iran, and Israel as well, required a certain period of recovery after Operation Rising Lion to rebuild its missile infrastructure. The prevailing assumption was therefore that it would take time before the next round. However, as noted, the intelligence Israel is closely following points to an acceleration in the rehabilitation of Iran's missile array, alongside some activity aimed at attempting to restart its nuclear program.

One of the most troubling variables that has received less media attention in recent days is Iran's highly complex internal situation, reflected, among other things, in the ongoing erosion of its currency. Israel does not rule out the possibility that, in order to cope with its domestic problems, the Iranian regime may seek to initiate an external war with Israel to divert public attention away from the country's economic and other difficulties.

In any case, senior officials told Israel Hayom that the arena most troubling Israel's defense establishment leaders at this time is Iran, and the greatest fear is a miscalculation or a surprise of which Israel would be unaware. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu addressed the issue last night, saying, "We know that Iran has been conducting exercises recently. We are following this, making the necessary preparations. And I want to make clear to Iran: any action will be met with a very harsh response."

Meanwhile, Israel's defense establishment is preparing all the intelligence and operational material Netanyahu will need for discussions with President Trump. The central problem, as analyzed in Israel, is that while Trump is committed to preventing Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons, he has not promised to remove the threat posed by surface-to-surface missiles, which Israel has also rightly defined as an existential threat. As a result, much will depend on the meeting between Netanyahu and Trump at the end of the month.

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Alaei made the remarks Saturday, stating, "If the country's intelligence service was properly focused on Israeli activity, it should have been updated on plans to assassinate Iranian commanders and scientists by aircraft."

According to the former IRGC Navy commander, the events of Operation Rising Lion demonstrated that Iran's government has not organized its intelligence apparatus "in a manner matching the intelligence and security efforts and operations of Israel."

He said he sees a need to "rebuild and deliberately focus" the Islamic Republic's intelligence organizations, adding that current institutions "do not respond to the type and level of threats" posed by Israel.

The former IRGC Navy commander continued his remarks by describing Mossad as "one of the world's strongest security and intelligence agencies." Allaei criticized the Islamic Republic's intelligence structure, saying, "In some cases, people who were known as Israeli targets all lived in the same tower, which allowed Israel to strike the building and be sanctified from the punishment of several people simultaneously."

He added that the two main institutions, the Ministry of Intelligence and IRGC Intelligence, are both involved in "internal security issues" and focus on Israel, while this model clearly has not borne fruit and has not shown the required effectiveness. Allaei proposed that one of these two institutions should focus entirely and exclusively on Israel. Earlier in October, he acknowledged the incompetence of the Islamic Republic's intelligence and security services against Israel.

These statements come against the backdrop of increased speculation in recent days regarding the future of the Islamic Republic's nuclear and missile programs and how the United States and Israel will respond to them.

This is not the first time that officials and figures identified with the Islamic Republic have recognized Israel's superiority in the 12-day war. On December 17, Masoud Pezeshkian, president of the Islamic Republic, announced that during the 12-day war, Israel had missile superiority.

He said in this context, "It is true that there were our missiles, but their missiles were more numerous, stronger, more accurate, and more convenient. It is the people who disappointed them."

On December 19, Ebrahim Azizi, chairman of parliament's National Security Committee, called the doctors' statements "unprofessional" and told them, "Weakening the country's defense capabilities is a mistake."

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"They hurt my son at the hotel entrance in Cyprus – and everyone disappeared," the young man's father wrote on social media. "My son, a young Israeli, was violently attacked at the entrance of the hotel where he was staying in Cyprus. Not on the street. Not in a bar. At the hotel entrance – a place that's supposed to be safe and secure.

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According to an Israel Hayom investigation, this information is false. There has been no change to the official policy of the Japanese government, and no entry ban, visa waiver cancellation, or unique restrictions on Israeli citizens have been announced.

Breaking:

Japan officially bans all Israeli tourists from entering the country, citing Israeli atrocities in Gaza . pic.twitter.com/V4WtCmN8uS

— Mega-Politics (@_MegaPolitics) December 20, 2025

The false information apparently stems from a recent incident – a hotel in Nagano Prefecture in central Japan refused to accept a booking from an Israeli travel agency, citing dissatisfaction with Israel's actions toward Palestinians. According to reports, during contacts with the Israeli agency, the hotel management indicated that its decision stemmed from its political position regarding the war in Gaza.

Following the incident, the Israeli Embassy in Tokyo contacted local authorities in Nagano Prefecture, demanding that the incident be investigated and clarifying whether this constitutes a violation of Japanese law.

After an initial investigation, the Nagano Prefecture government issued a verbal warning to the hotel operators and clarified that refusing to accept guests based on nationality could be considered prohibited discrimination, contrary to guidelines practiced in Japan.

The incident joins another event that sparked controversy earlier this year, when a hotel in Kyoto demanded that an Israeli tourist sign a declaration that he had not been involved in war crimes during his military service – a condition that was disqualified after the authorities intervened.

The incidents are occurring against the backdrop of growing public protest in Japan against the fighting in Gaza, including demonstrations and civilian initiatives, but they have no expression in the country's immigration or tourism policy.

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