Despite the external and domestic challenges Israel has faced in the past several weeks due to ongoing terrorism and the protest over judicial reform, Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich has been putting on an upbeat demeanor and has made it clear in an interview with Israel Hayom that he is optimistic and is content with how things are unfolding in the government. The interview was carried out just before Passover. 

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"In the end, the public needs to know that we have a good and stable right-wing government that has been working hard and delivering many good things to Israelis and to the right-wing values in particular 

Q: It appears that people are feeling the exact opposite sentiment. 

"I disagree. The government was formed just over three months ago. We entered into a chaotic situation when it comes to the judicial reform bills, but on the economy, the settlement enterprise, standing tall as Israelis – we will all see the results eventually."   

Q: As finance minister, how much has the Israeli economy been damaged over the past three months?  

"It's on the fringes of the fringes."  

Q: How many billions of shekels? 50? 200?  

"I don't want to specify a number. The Israeli economy is one of the most stable and strongest economies. We have passed a good and responsible budget. The economy is a matter of sentiment and expectations. Some scaremongers have been spreading lies and have gone to big financial institutions and told them nonsense about Israel becoming a dictatorship. But despite this, the data does not show chaos. The past several months have been nothing but a small fender bender."  

Q: How do you explain the gap between what you think and the general picture created by the protests, the polarization, and the downbeat national feeling?  

"People have been brainwashed; they are being told that we are going to create "A Handmaid's Tale" reality and they are scared. Those who think that I am going to go that path don't know me and don't know my family, my values, and don't know Judaism. I am the farthest thing there is from 'A Handmaid's Tale'. We do great things, but we have not been good enough at messaging."  

 Q: Doesn't that add up to too many missteps in three months?  

"Absolutely not. The pace of events has been unreal. We entered the chaos over the judicial reform, the country was in upheaval and the media has taken a side in the protesters' favor, the talk of reservists refusing orders has not been properly addressed, and suddenly the Histadrut Labor Federation has joined. But this is not what we are worried about; we worry about delivering many things for the Israeli people."  

Q: The legislation that would let Aryeh Deri return to the cabinet despite the Supreme Court ruling and prevent the declaration of the prime minister as incapacitated in non-medical conditions is not aimed at benefiting the general public. 

"The legislation on incapacitation was a natural correction to the previous law which was stupid and pointless in a normal country. When the attorney general flirts with the surreal dictatorial proposition that she could topple a prime minister because he doesn't conduct himself to her liking, such a law is necessary. We want to preserve the people's choice at the ballot box. This is a great bill, it must be approved.

"As for the legislation on Deri, some 400,000 people voted for his party. The previous attorney general finalized his plea bargain and even said that no one could expect him to return to politics. Now they want to undo the public's democratic choice. One can think Deri is unfit to serve, and they have every right to form a party that would run on this ticket and then change the law. But there is no such law right now that prevents him from serving again; it is the Supreme Court that made up this precedent using the pretext of negating a plea bargain, which is a term that is used in totally different contexts in the legal world. This is just surreal."
 

Q: What about the bill to allow politicians to receive monetary benefits in large quantities?  

"That bill has been put on hold for now, even though its provisions make sense. Why should a person who is in charge of the state budget have to expend millions on his dime just so he can fight an indictment? The police and the State Attorney's Office did not have to pay from their private accounts when they investigated him so why should he? In such a situation, every person can use his family to help him, so why shouldn't a prime minister be allowed to do this? If this was to happen to me, would I have been able to expend 1 million shekels on legal fees? I could not even afford 100,000, so why shouldn't I be able to get help from my parents? That is just unreal." 

Q: So, your messaging has been a failure? 

"How can you have good messaging in the face of such an onslaught against you? The brainwashing against us is just uncanny. We may have had our own share of missteps and perhaps we should have moved more slowly. I have been trying to win the hearts and minds on this issue for some 15 years, it is a colossal challenge, all the big powers are against us. In recent weeks, we have gotten a crash course on just how strong the establishment is and just how strong the Left's grip is on it."  

Q: Who is the establishment?  

"The military, the police, the Histadrut, the judiciary, academia. Look at academia for example – rather than a place where pluralism thrives, it is a place where people are silenced. The establishment keeps replicating itself. Who decides who becomes an associate professor? The clique. It's like the Judicial Nominations Committee, where one friend brings another friend." 

Q: What is the problem in the military? 

"This is an organization that resists change. In Judea and Samaria, it is still beholden to the Oslo Accords paradigm. It wants calm so it collaborates with the Palestinian Authority."  

Military glass ceiling

Q: But the IDF chief of staff grew up in a religious home.  

"I respect him, and you won't hear anything bad about him from me. But I have great pain in seeing the total failure he and the top brass have presided over when it comes to countering the refusal to serve. The first letter signed by the IAF pilots was released even before the first draft of the reform was revealed. This should have been tackled back then. Those who signed it should be relieved of duty. There should be zero legitimacy for such refusals, for insubordination, and for putting the IDF into the political fray. My expectation is that this should be dealt with on the spot. You take the first people who make those statements and take their aviator badge off their chest and tell them, 'Thank you, we can take it from here'. This would have put an end to this rather quickly. 

"Apart from that, there is a military glass ceiling in the IDF that is not related to Right or Left, religious or secular. It is related to ideas that challenge conventional wisdom. I don't want a military that has only one voice where discussions lead only to one single outcome, I see this in the Diplomatic Security Cabinet meetings, which have become rather pointless. In those meetings, the IDF representative puts a PowerPoint presentation, provides an assessment with recommendations, and then the members of the cabinet speak just for the record one after another. And that's it. Is that how a discussion should be held? The result is that there is no thinking outside the box."   

Q: When it comes to security, your record is hardly a success. The Lapid-Bennett government retaliated for every missile attack. Your responses have been very different: containment 

"You are right. I have a lot of criticism over how we have handled security, but I would prefer to voice it behind closed doors or in my conversations with the prime minister. I am part of the cabinet, and I am collegial. I am willing to swallow my pride and also wield influence on things that are part of my prerogative, like deducting terrorist funds from the Palestinian Authority and legalizing new outposts. I am willing to cut some slack for the prime minister because he is after all dealing with a very strong and opinionated system that has been acting in a very specific manner."  

Q: Let me offer an alternative explanation: You have been cracking down on Palestinians by denying them various perks in prisons, and they have been responding with attacks. You don't respond to missiles, and then they increase the rocket fire. 

"We should never have contained the missiles. I can't give a good explanation for why we didn't respond, but there is a reason. One of the problems is that you cannot be fully transparent with the public with every move. If I were defense minister, there would have been a response. The first missile under this government would have elicited a very harsh retaliation that would have made it clear to the other side that you don't mess with us. I understand that there is a wider calculus at play and the rationale guiding the prime minister and the IDF. We have not responded not because we are weak and feeble but because there are larger considerations that we have to take into account (Since the interview was conducted, Israel has responded to attacks from Gaza by launching airstrikes - Y.S.)."

So Lapid and Bennett were able to respond but Netanyahu and Smotrich cannot? 

"Right. Here is a simple example. Hamas had a vested interest in preserving the previous government because Arab MK Mansour Abbas and the Muslim Brotherhood [were backing it]. Behind the scenes there Abbas was in contact with Hamas and that is why their response was different then."  

Q: What do you think about what happened with Yoav Gallant? Did you support his firing [which has since been retracted] 

"Yoav is a friend and a good guy. We managed to iron out our differences. There is no personal animosity; zero baggage. I believe he did something that is just not done. His inaction on disobedience in the military is a failure in leadership that he should not have presided over. Also, he did a thing that is just not done when it comes to loyalty to the Coalition and the prime minister. If you have something that you disagree with you talk about it in the weekly cabinet meeting. You shout all you want and make an impact in that forum. He sat down with the prime minister on a Thursday just before Netanyahu said he would get involved in resolving the judicial crisis. Then Netanyahu flew on a diplomatic engagement for the weekend, and while he was there Gallant released his statement against him and put a gun on the table. You don't do such things."    

Q: How will the talks at the President's Residence over a compromise end?  

"We have to lay the foundation of dialogue, but we don't need an agreed plan. The Coalition has a majority, and I don't think the Opposition is going to sign off on the compromise. No one asked for the opinion of the opposition during the Oslo Accords or the Disengagement Plan. We have to reach a balanced agreement; the Opposition doesn't have to agree to it; it only has to be able to tolerate it. The question is whether there is a partner on the other side. Unfortunately, this has not happened so far. Lapid doesn't want a compromise because he is a chaos agent and anarchist. He also has a vested interest in having this country set ablaze so that the government is toppled. Benny Gantz has so far shown no courage in standing up to him."  

Q: Everything will ultimately boil down to who controls the Judicial Nominations Committee. You want the politicians to be in charge; they have vowed that this will not happen.  

"We don't want control, we want balance. No one is going to be able to credibly say that a Coalition that appoints two judges during its term will be able to take over the Supreme Court. We are going to restructure the relations with the attorney general. Think about it for a moment – the minister wanted to relieve an officer from duties, at the recommendation of the Israel Police inspector general, only to be prevented to implement this by the attorney general Does that make sense?"  

Why haven't you fired the attorney general?  

"The High Court of Justice won't let us. It would be a waste of time. As far as I am concerned, it shouldn't even be called firing. Gideon Sa'ar appointed her. Would there be a situation in which Joe Biden keeps Donald Trump's cabinet? When a new government is sworn in, it is only natural that it appoints a new professional to the job. Of course, this will be done through an orderly process and through the nominations committee. I don't want to appoint a marionette. But what is the logic behind having someone who was appointed by Sa'ar, a rival to Netanyahu, stay on the job?"  

 "The relations with the US are in great shape"  

 Q: Why did you wait until the very last minute to put the legislation on hold?  

"I think it was wrong to pause the legislation process. It only hurts the prospects of finding a compromise."  

Q: SO, will the judicial reform never see the light of day?  

"No, it's not dead yet. It will move forward because it is right, correct, and clearly needed. We will do it slowly and in phases and through dialogue. However, I am skeptical as to the ability of the president to be a mediator. He violated our trust and broke hard to the Left."  

Q: Don't you think he has been genuinely trying to find a solution that benefits both sides?  

"I can't explain why he has turned. He offered a plan that we could live with only to then suggest another one 24 hours later we could not. Perhaps he saw that he could not get anyone from the other side on board and decided to cater to his base."  

Q: If talks fail, will you advance the reform in any event?  

"Of course. Just like we knew how to create balances in the Judicial Nominations Committee, we will do this now. For example, some are worried that an override clause would allow the Coalition to do away with any election. But the language specifically says that it does not apply to the election. You can set balances."  

Q: The relations with the US are at a low point. You heard President Biden say he is not going to invite Netanyahu in the near term.  

"The state of relations with the US is in great shape. The prime minister issued a great response to that statement. We had gone through more difficult periods with the Americans. President Barack Obama was keen to fight and tried to crush Netanyahu and have him unseated so that a weaker prime minister emerges, one whom he could manage. This is a very delicate dance, where you have to maintain a good relationship and know how to stand your ground."  

Q: Why the beef that the US has with you? Why didn't they want to meet you when you were there?  

"There was no discussion on having meetings with the administration officials. I was there to attend an Israel Bonds conference and met with the large Jewish groups."  

Q: Can you explain your broken English that was put on display in those speeches?  

"I wanted to show respect by speaking in English. It was a great speech; I spoke for 20 minutes, and the footage was edited so that only my gaffes were shown in the reel. That's not too bad. I saw that Israeli comedians had fun with it, and it was funny. This was the first time I enjoyed watching Eretz Nehederet. I am not too frightened by this."  

Q: Did you feel that you have become the butt of jokes?  

"I am used to this. I don't get easily frightened, and I don't really care for the media. Do you think I don't know how to pronounce the English word 'grandmother'? This was my first time giving a speech in English, and I was a bit overwhelmed. I let my guard down; I am not that great in English, and I need to invest in it. So, people laughed. If I managed to make Jews happy during these times of division and fragmentation, that's great."  

"Q: Will the government serve out its term?  

The government will complete its term. The alternative is terrible. If the Right falls, the Left returns. With all the hateful energies, they are going to steamroll us. We must preserve this government; it is good on all fronts, and it should be judged after four years."   

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Israel held its fourth legislative election in the past two years on March 23, voting 120 members of Knesset into power as representatives of the 24th Knesset since the establishment of the state.

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According to the Israel Democracy Institute (IDI) research center, Israel has held more national votes than any other parliamentary democracy in the world since 1996, with 11 Knesset elections over the past 15 years.

For some, the current political reality proves that Israel is a true liberal democracy, expressed by the selection of its parliamentary leadership, albeit time after time. But for others, the failure to form a working government proves that Israel's political system is in need of a major overhaul going forward.

In fact, a recent IDI study showed that some two-thirds of the Israeli public believes that the democratic system in Israel is in grave danger. Ironically, a similar proportion considers Israel a good place to live.

Yoram Ettinger, a former minister for congressional affairs at Israel's embassy in Washington and an expert on US-Israel relations, told JNS that Israel's political system "is a dysfunctional and self-destructive system from its inception."

He adds that "the idea that the same system can produce different outcomes ignores reality, and as long as we have the same system, we are going to have similar outcomes with the potential for a fifth, sixth and seventh election within months."

Ettinger believes that even if a party head is successful in putting together a 61-plus member coalition, "it is going to be short-lived."

"First and foremost, a better system is needed, which introduces accountability by members of Knesset to their constituents. Right now, the Knesset members are accountable to their party leaders. The existing system disarms voters completely and renders them irrelevant between election campaigns," he says.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, whose Likud Party secured the most votes with 30 mandates, received the first opportunity from President Reuven Rivlin to try and form a government consisting of 61 seats.

If he fails to do so by May 4, the president may appoint another party head – perhaps Yair Lapid (Yesh Atid) or Naftali Bennett (Yamina) to try and establish a coalition. If they fail, then the assignment then falls on the Knesset to appoint one of its members to form a government.

If that effort does not bear fruit, Israel might be faced with a fifth election this coming fall.

Ettinger envisions a system in which the country is divided into 120 geographical districts, where the public selects candidates who will directly represent their interests in the Knesset. He feels that once candidates are voted into office, a second election should be held for the role of prime minister, where the aim is a complete separation between the executive and legislature.

He explains that his ideal system would be similar to the "Mosaic Covenant" recorded in the Bible given by God to the Israelites in the desert. "When the Jews left Egypt, they elected governors," says Ettinger. "There was a separation of power between the priests, the Levites and the heads of the tribes. This minimized the threat of a tyrannical executive and enhanced the power of constituents through the accountability of legislators to voters."

Ettinger stresses that "there must be a system of checks and balances where the legislature has the power to independently, and not under threat, examine the executive branch." He also feels that term limits for the executive branch are necessary.

'Israel has had relatively stable governments'

However, Avi Bell, professor of law at Bar-Ilan University in Ramat Gan and a senior fellow at the Kohelet Policy Forum, doesn't see the current impasse as necessarily a problem with Israel's parliamentary coalition building system.

He tells JNS that aside from the past two years, Israel has shown political consistency: "Up until two years ago, Israel has had relatively stable governments, lasting for around three years each, which is pretty good under a parliamentary system."

"So what changed over the past two years?" he posits. "Firstly, the electoral threshold was raised to 3.25% at the request of Avigdor Lieberman. That led to odd political alignments and in some cases weeded out potential actors with more political flexibility, which is an essential part of the system."

"The idea that the same system can produce different outcomes ignores reality."

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Secondly, Bell says that "the baseless indictment of Netanyahu is a major cause of the electoral deadlock in the past two years." He notes that the charges against the prime minister are the result of structural changes over the past decades that have enabled "the attorney general and law enforcement to become more political and assertive."

The indictments for bribery and breach of trust have had played an outsized role in the outcome of the elections, and have empowered Netanyahu's political rivals to refuse to join a coalition led by Israel's longest-serving prime minister.

In other words, says Bell, "Netanyahu's opponents don't believe they have to beat him at the ballot box; they can hold out until reinforcements get rid of him. If this gambit of getting rid of a guy who can't be defeated at the ballot boxes is successful, it will happen time and time again."

Bell explains this using Gideon Sa'ar's New Hope Party as an example. "Sa'ar has six seats because he is being supported in part by those who disagree with him on every policy other than getting rid of Prime Minister Netanyahu. Voters feared that without him, there was no way of putting together a blocking coalition. So people jumped to vote for someone they disagree very strongly with because they were not looking to maximize their own political preferences in the Knesset. For them, voting for someone who represents their policies risks throwing away a vote."

That said, Bell doesn't see Israel's system as having a problem, per se.

"Rewarding parties which exist just to get rid of one guy is not a structural problem," he says. "It's a problem of preference. There is a minority on the right that prefers getting Netanyahu out of the way to any other policy preference. It's unfathomable that if you change the rules, this phenomenon is going to disappear."

'Preventing a normal coalition'

Assaf Shapira, director of the political reform program at the IDI, agrees with Bell's assessment that overall, the system of governance cannot be blamed for the current stalemate. He tells JNS, "We have a lot of problems, but historically, forming a government was never a problem."

He attributes the current political deadlock to the "personal and legal criminal issues related to Prime Minister Netanyahu."

"If it wasn't Netanyahu, a national unity government would have been formed a long time ago," he says. "I'm not blaming anyone, but this is preventing a normal coalition."

Shapira believes that the law in Israel needs to be amended so that if a prime minister is being prosecuted, he should be suspended from his duties and only be allowed to return upon acquittal.

"There is no perfect democracy."

One aspect of the system Shapira would change is the requirement of 61 members of Knesset to join forces to form a government. "As in other countries in Europe, there is an investiture vote or a vote of approval. In other words, parliament expresses support for a new government," he states.

As it relates to Israel, in his view, "the president would turn to the head of the largest party after the election and he would be charged with operating a new government; he wouldn't need 61, the government would just start working."

Shapira feels under this reality, "the parties themselves would behave differently and merge before the elections, trying to get the greatest amount of votes possible."

He says this would minimize separate lists from different parties, which have similar political views. He adds that this type of arrangement could lead to minority governments being in power, which he says is not a popular option in Israel, but is something he would support while acknowledging it might seem radical in this country.

"In Europe, this is a very common form of government, and there are pros and cons. On one hand, it might be harder to pass laws, but on the other, using our Arab-Israeli parties as an example, if they support a minority government from the outside, they can gain many achievements on civic laws, equality, etc.," explains Shapira.

Similar to Ettinger's approach, Shapira also believes that Israeli voters should have more of an ability to choose candidates they support based on electoral districts. He said that he envisions a system similar to countries like Belgium or Denmark, where, for example, each geographic region "would have 10 representatives in the Knesset, so that most voters would have their own representation there."

'The system is clearly not working'

However, Michael Oren, Israel's former Ambassador to the United States who also served as a Knesset member, tells JNS that the current reality proves "that the system is clearly not working."

"It's a problem of preference."

Oren believes that Israel needs to implement a bicameral house, similar to the US House of Representatives and the Senate, while at the same time needs to set limits on how long a prime minister can serve in office. Oren says Israel should also raise the electoral threshold even further to prevent small parties from getting elected.

He also agrees that candidates should be elected representing local constituencies on a regional as opposed to a national level to best serve their interests while in Knesset.

As he explains, "Instead of voting for the entire Labor Party, for example, voters should have the option of picking candidates in certain areas from that party which represent them. I think this would add stability."

While affirming his belief in Israel's democracy, he acknowledges that changes are needed.

"There is no perfect democracy," attests Oren. "It's like the Dutch boy sticking his finger in the dyke, but water starts coming out of the other holes. However, we can decrease the robust holes in our 'dam' by implementing some of these changes."

Reprinted with permission from JNS.org

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Midnight Thursday marked the deadline for parties to submit their lists for the March 23 Knesset election to the Central Elections Committee, after a week marked by sudden upheavals on the center-left and unifications on the Right.

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Now that the lists are in, these are the largest parties for whom Israeli voters will be able to cast ballots to represent them in the 24^th Knesset:

Likud, under Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu

Yesh Atid, under MK Yair Lapid

New Hope, under Gideon Sa'ar

Yamina, under Naftali Bennett

Shas, under Interior Minister Aryeh Deri

United Torah Judaism, under the new leadership of MK Moshe Gafni

Blue and White, under Benny Gantz

Labor, under MK Merav Michaeli

Meretz, under Nitzan Horowitz

Joint Arab List (without Ra'am), under MK Ayman Odeh

Ra'am, under MK Mansour Abbas

Religious Zionist Party (with Otzma Yehudit-Noam), under MK Bezalel Smotrich

Economic Party, under Yaron Zelikha

Yisrael Beytenu, under Avigdor Lieberman

This is not an exhaustive list of all parties appearing on the March 23 ballot.

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MK Bezalel Smotrich's announcement that the National Union, the religious Zionist party he heads, would be running separately in the upcoming election caught Yamina leader Naftali Bennett by surprise.

Thus far, Bennett thought – and possibly still thinks – that Smotrich was just flexing his muscles and would eventually agree to a joint ticket.

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Even though Bennett isn't doing badly in the polls, the misadventure of his former New Right list has left scars that probably won't go away. Bennett needs an insurance policy that will ensure he makes it over the minimum electoral threshold, and thought he could depend on religious Zionist voters. But Smotrich's departure puts those plans in danger.

Now Bennett will have to decide whether to give up on Smotrich once and for all and run alone, or try to form a joint ticket with some other party that will give him the assurances he so desires.

Bennett isn't the only one in this predicament. The high electoral threshold (3.25%) poses a challenge for all newcomers, and even some established parties, who are liable to be beguiled by the polls, only to find out at the last minute that they'll only be seeing the inside of the Knesset on their TV screens.

Shelah's correction

Polls that looked as the possibility of Smotrich running on his own indicated that his religious Zionist party would win four seats, barely above the minimum threshold.

Smotrich is sure that number will increase, and is depending on a precedent that saw his party make it in while Bennet's New Right failed to, but that is no guarantee the same thing will happen this time. To give himself the greatest possible guarantee he will make it over the 3.25%, Smotrich will need to form his own partnerships with Habayit Hayehudi and Otzma Yehudit.

After all the party splits and formation of new parties, the Left is also calling for unification. No poll shows Ofer Shelah's party making it past the minimum threshold, and he was the first to call for immediate negotiations to bring the left-wing camp into line. Remember, Shelah is the one who split from Yesh Atid and put himself at risk. His calls for unification are a correction.

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Ya'alon also splits, then calls for unity

Like Shelah, Moshe Ya'alon of Telem announced this week he was leaving Yesh Atid, which did not hinder him from announcing at a press conference that it was time to unify. According to the polls, Ya'alon's party won't pass the minimum threshold, either, and a joint ticket is his only chance of serving in the next Knesset.

The rest of the candidates from the left-wing bloc, like former Treasury official Yaron Zelekha and former Mossad head Danny Yatom, who have announced they are forming their own parties, will need to find an arrangement that will bring them over the threshold, or they might wind up dropping out of the race. If they run separately, the rest of the camp will not take it well.

Will the Arab List remain 'joint'?

The Arab sector realized the need to run on a joint ticket long ago. When Avigdor Lieberman raised the minimum threshold in 2014, ahead of the 2015 election, all the Arab parties from Hadash to Balad banded together in a joint ticket that proved itself successful and has gained more votes from one election to the next.

Despite serious disputes between some of the list's parties and the Ra'am party, headed by Mansour Abbas, the prevailing belief is that the Joint Arab List will remain just that. This is mostly because a drop in the polls could keep one or two of the four parties on the list out of the Knesset, which they think would hurt Arab representation as a whole.

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Until former Likud minister Gideon Sa'ar threw his hat into the ring, Yamina leader Naftali Bennett and his people were resting easy near the top of the polls, which were predicting they would win the second-largest number of seat, making Bennett a viable candidate for prime minister. Sa'ar's entrance has cost Yamina, seeing the party drop to 12-13 projected seats and slowing its momentum.

Despite the drop, Yamina appeared to be encouraged, mostly because it sees its base increasing.

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"Until not too long ago, our base was six seats, and now it's double that, 12 seats. That's good, important stability," party sources said.

Bennett has avoiding making any public declarations about his intention of taking over as prime minister from Benjamin Netanyahu until it was certain that Israel would indeed be holding another election. Now that has happened, with the Knesset dissolving itself at midnight Tuesday, Bennett is expected to lay his cards on the table within a ew days.

The upcoming election, scheduled for March 23, 2021, will be characterized by two camps: "Only Bibi" (the Likud and the Haredi parties) and "Anyone but Bibi" (Sa'ar, Avigdor Lieberman, Yair Lapid, and others). Yamina is planning to be a third bloc and announce that Bennett intends to take over from Netanyahu, but not refuse to join a Netanyahu government if the numbers don't go their way. Party sources are saying, "What will happen if Gideon Sa'ar decides things? Will he join a government supported by [Arab party] Balad? Take us to another election? The fact that he is saying 'Anyone but Bibi' could cause trouble for him. With us, all the options are open."

Yamina thinks that thus far, its voters have been made up of two groups: religious Zionists, right-wing, and Likud voters who do not want to see Netanyahu stay in power, and center and even left-wing voters who are protesting the government's handling of the COVID crisis and want to see Netanyahu out. Yamina thinks that a third group has "defected" to support Gideon Sa'ar.

Yamina does not intend to present a list of "celebrities" as it has in the past, but will compile a list of candidates with proven records of work in the private and public sector, including candidates from the periphery.

Until the deadline to submit party lists for the March 2021 election (Feb. 3 or 4), Yamina will attempt to negotiate with MK Bezalel Smotrich, who plans to assemble a list for his own National Union party. If they want to run on a joint ticket, Bennett and Smotrich will have to reach agreements about the list, as well as major issues.

Israel Hayom recently quoted officials in Yamina saying that "If on the day the party lists are submitted, Bennett and Smotrich wind up running together, it will be with the understanding that no government will be formed that includes Lieberman and Lapid."

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If a general election were held now, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's Likud party would win 28 seats, and Yamina under Naftali Bennett would win 22, according to a Channel 12 News poll broadcast Saturday night.

A Yesh Atid-Telem joint list would win 17 seats if an election were held now, and the Joint Arab List would win 13 seats, the poll showed.

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Another 11 seats were projected for Blue and White.

The poll predicted eight seats each for ulra-Orthodox parties Shas and United Torah Judaism, and seven seats for Avigdor Lieberman's Yisrael Beytenu.

Left-wing party Meretz would win six seats if an election were held now, the poll showed.

In terms of blocs, the poll indicated 66 seats for a right-wing bloc and 54 for a left-wing bloc that included Yisrael Beytenu.

Four parties – Labor, Derech Eretz, Habayit Hayehudi, and Gesher – would not make it past the 3.25% minimum electoral threshold, the poll showed.

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