Following the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco and Sudan – is Libya the next in line to make peace with Israel and join the Abraham Accords? The political camps in the North African country, which has suffered two brutal civil wars over the past decade, are preparing for a highly charged election campaign that will determine Libya's future.

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According to senior Libyan officials with close ties to the leading presidential candidate, Gen. Khalifa Haftar, it appears the large Arab country is moving toward normalization with Israel. Haftar has recently voiced his desire on several occasions to normalize ties with Israel, and declared he would work to that end if he is elected president on December 24.

Israel Hayom reported in late October that an Israeli consulting firm was advising both Haftar and his main rival, Saif al-Islam Gaddafi, the son of the former tyrant Muammar Gaddafi, who was deposed and killed in a violent uprising 10 years ago.

Haftar, who has also earmarked a senior role in the next government for his son, Saddam, if he wins the election, has the support of the US, Egypt, Saudi Arabia and other Western actors, but he has apparently pinned a great deal of hope on relations with Israel.

"Only a normalization agreement with Israel, which will bring Libya into the Abraham Accords, can catalyze Libya's rehabilitation plan, which stands at hundreds of billions of dollars," Haftar has reportedly told his confidantes.

Libya's goal, he has said, is to receive financial aid from the international community, which requires a change of direction from the next president-elect and his government. Joining the Abraham Accords, according to Haftar, could pave the path for Libya to return to the family of nations, secure the necessary aid from the International Monetary Fund, and diplomatic support from the US and European Union.

A senior official in the UAE, who is close to both the leading candidates in Libya, told Israel Hayom: "On the matter of Libya's desire and need to normalize its relations with Israel and join the Abraham Accords, there is consensus among the two candidates. Both have said in the past that normalization with Israel is on the table, and on many occasions both have told their close advisers in private that they would work in earnest to make that happen."

The senior UAE official added, however, that even if either of the candidates eventually does normalize ties with Israel, it would be a vastly different type of relationship than with the UAE, Bahrain and Morocco.

"If the initiative is implemented," the official said, "it will happen at a very slow pace, very cautiously, somewhat similar to the normalization process between Israel and Sudan."

Meanwhile, an official in Haftar's campaign headquarters told Israel Hayom that "it's still too early to discuss a normalization agreement with Israel and how that would look. First of all, Gen. Haftar has to actually win, and we are certain he will. As of now, though, we have no interest in bringing the issue of future relations with Israel to the agenda, because the Libyan public harbors traditional and structured hostility toward it. At this juncture, such conversations can only harm Haftar's chances of winning the election."

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Haftar's refusal thwarted, at least temporarily, an effort by Putin and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan to structure the ceasefire so it would align opposing Russian and Turkish interests, allow the two parties to cooperate in the exploitation of Libya's energy resources and protect a Turkish-Libyan maritime agreement creating an Exclusive Economic Zone that strengthens Russian-backed Turkish maneuvers in the eastern Mediterranean.

The Putin-Erdoğan maneuvers are designed to thwart a Greek-Cypriot-Israeli agreement to build a pipeline that would supply gas to Europe, reducing European dependence on Russian gas in the process.

Critics charge that the Turkish-Libyan maritime agreement, which would limit Greek-Cypriot-Israeli access to hydrocarbons in the eastern Mediterranean, violates the Law of the Sea.

Greece has warned that it will block EU backing for any Libyan peace deal as long as the Turkish-Libyan maritime agreement is in place. Haftar visited Greece, as well as other countries, following his rejection of the ceasefire and ahead of a conference on Libya hosted by Germany in Berlin on January 19.

Haftar's rejection came as Turkish troops arrived in Libya to bolster forces of the internationally recognized government of Prime Minister Fayez al-Sarraj, which are defending the capital, Tripoli, against an eight-month assault by Haftar's rebel Libyan National Army (LNA), which is backed by Russian mercenaries with close ties to the Kremlin, the UAE, Saudi Arabia and Egypt.

Prince Muhammad's presence at the inauguration of the Egyptian naval base underlined the UAE's influence in Egypt. The UAE backed el-Sissi's 2013 military coup, which toppled the country's first and only democratically elected president, and is determined to counter Islamist forces as well as Turkish influence in Libya and the Horn of Africa.

UAE and Egyptian backing of Haftar is not just about countering jihadist and non-jihadist Islamists and Turkey but also Qatar, Turkey's ally, which also supports the Libyan rebels.

The UAE-Turkish-Qatari proxy war in Libya is also increasingly colored by Prince Muhammad and el-Sissi's opposition to efforts to resolve divisions among the Gulf states that spilled into the open with the declaration of a Saudi-UAE-led diplomatic and economic boycott of Qatar in 2017.

Saudi Arabia has hinted in recent months that it might be amenable to an easing of the boycott, a move that is believed to be opposed by the UAE as long as Qatar does not make significant concessions on issues like freewheeling broadcaster Al Jazeera and support for political Islam.

The new naval base's location symbolizes Egypt's conundrum, which is also a problem for the UAE, at a time when Egypt is at odds with Ethiopia over the operation of a giant dam Ethiopia is building on the Nile.

Stepping up its involvement in Libya puts Egypt at risk of becoming embroiled in two conflicts at the same time.

Egypt claims the dam puts a million Egyptian jobs, $1.8 billion in annual economic output and electricity valued at $300 million at risk.

The base is aimed at "securing the country's southern coasts, protecting economic investments and natural resources and facing security threats in the Red Sea," according to a spokesman for el-Sissi.

The president has warned that Egypt would take all necessary measures to protect its rights to Nile waters.

So far, Egypt is banking on mediation to help it avoid being trapped between a rock and a hard place by achieving a ceasefire in Libya that would keep Egypt's hands free to deal with Ethiopia should a conflict erupt.

The question is whether Haftar – who, without signing the ceasefire agreement, reportedly told German officials that he would adhere to its terms – and the UAE are willing to play ball.

The proof will be in the pudding. German Chancellor Angela Merkel raised the stakes by insisting in advance of the Berlin talks that they ensure "that the weapons embargo is adhered to again."

The United Nations has accused the UAE, together with several other countries, including Turkey, of violating the UN embargo.

As a result, it may be the UAE rather than Haftar that has a decisive voice in Berlin.

Said North Africa expert Ben Fishman: "Until Abu Dhabi pulls back its drones, operators and other crucial military support, the prospects for Libya's stability will remain dim. Besides the fact that they provide the greatest advantage to Haftar's forces, focusing on the Emiratis also makes sense because the other foreign players currently have reasons to de-escalate on their own."

Reprinted with permission from JNS.org.

This article was first published by the Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies.

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Field Marshal Khalifa Haftar and his Libyan National Army have hired Linden Government Solutions, based in Houston, according to a foreign agent registration document released Tuesday by the Justice Department.

Linden, which would receive about $2 million under the 13-month agreement, also will assist with "international coalition building, and general public relations" for the Libyan National Army.

Haftar last month was granted a phone call with President Donald Trump and has been gaining international support in his campaign to take control of an oil-rich country that has been in turmoil since the uprising that toppled dictator Moammar Gadhafi in 2011.

A White House statement about the call said, "The two discussed a shared vision for Libya's transition to a stable, democratic political system."

The chaos that followed the overthrow and killing of Gadhafi resulted in a divided country, with a weak U.N.-supported administration in Tripoli overseeing the country's west and a government in the east aligned with Haftar.

Haftar served as a senior officer under Gadhafi but defected in the 1980s during Libya's ruinous war with Chad, in which he and hundreds of soldiers were captured in an ambush. He later spent more than two decades in the suburbs of Washington, where he is widely believed to have worked with the CIA, before returning to join the uprising in 2011. He eventually built up the forces known as the Libyan National Army.

The Linden executives leading the firm's representation, Stephen Payne and Brian Ettinger, have extensive knowledge of Libya, the company said in a statement. Payne, Linden's president, said he has been in communication with Haftar for the past five years, according to the statement.

Libya has struggled to rebuild its oil industry – its main source of revenue – since 2011. The firm's statement doesn't mention a specific role for Linden in Libya's energy industry, but both Payne and Ettinger have experience in international oil and natural gas markets.

Payne represented the government of Turkmenistan, a central Asian nation of 5.4 million people, in a consortium of other countries and international companies to build a natural gas pipeline from Turkmenistan to Pakistan, according to highlights of Payne's career provided by Linden.

Ettinger and Payne traveled to Libya in 2011 on a humanitarian mission, before Gadhafi was removed, and helped negotiate the release of several imprisoned journalists, the statement said. Ettinger is Linden's general counsel.

Payne did foreign travel advance work for the George W. Bush administration. He also served on Bush's campaigns. Other clients Payne has represented include Pakistan, the United Arab Emirates, JP Morgan, Boeing and Lockheed Martin.

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