In the days that have passed since, Tehran attempts to offset the strategic blow it received through aspiring to implement Khamenei's directive "to make Israel miserable" by means of severe attacks that would cause it to regret its surprising move.

When appointed to replace Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini in 1989, Khamenei was charged with the mission of his life – to preserve the precious trust placed in his hands, the Islamic regime. Since then, Khamenei has conducted battles not only against his rivals in the political arena in Iran, who oppose the conservative-ideological line he leads, but has also fought obsessively against the campaign to overthrow the regime by his opponents.

According to Khamenei's worldview, the US and Israel strive to achieve this goal, and they operate intensively in the cultural, political, social, and economic arenas to realize their objective. Against this, Khamenei has consistently called on his people and supporters to demonstrate vigilance and identify enemy activity in these arenas in order to thwart them in advance.

The regime's battle over the hearts and minds

Now, the intensive attacks under which the regime finds itself, the elimination of senior commanders and nuclear scientists, the severe damage to command and control apparatuses and to nuclear facilities are causing severe damage that the regime has never experienced before, even in the Iran-Iraq War (1980–1988), in which it lost hundreds of thousands of people. The historic American attack against nuclear facilities, chiefly among them Fordo, adds significantly to the difficulty facing the leadership in Tehran.

Still, it appears premature to determine that the regime has buckled under the pressure. In a calculated move, it cut off the internet in the country with the goal of controlling the consciousness of its citizens, and operates continuous waves of arrests throughout Iran against those who undermine the regime narrative and "disrupt public opinion."

Conversely, it tries to strengthen a sense of achievement among its people and in society generally, through false reports of downing Israeli F-35 aircraft in Iran, and ongoing public relations efforts to the public emphasizing the continued functional continuity of the regime, supply of basic products and preservation of order in the country.

The achievement declared in the war by Israel is the removal of threats from the nuclear program, terror apparatus and missile array. It is doubtful whether Israel can be satisfied with this achievement, given the regime DNA of the Islamic Republic that inscribed Israel's destruction on its flag.

Gholam-Ali Rashid, commander of the emergency command center, Khatam al-Anbiya, who was eliminated in the opening blow of the war, aptly described the way Iran aspires to destroy Israel. In an interview with Iranian media on May 5, 2024, he described how he spread out the region's map in his office, and worked together with additional senior figures from the security system on a plan for Israel's elimination.

Rashid explained in the interview that if a significant and multi-theater raid against Israel takes place from southern Lebanon, from the Golan, and from the West Bank and Gaza, "then its story will end, and the IDF will be destroyed." He emphasized that the October 7 attack was an example of this, since Israel failed to function properly even against one guerrilla organization.

Historic opportunity for regime overthrow

The possible entry of the US under President Donald Trump's leadership into the war, which strengthens in light of the American attack early Sunday morning, could immeasurably strengthen the war effort. Beyond the damage inflicted on the nuclear facility at Fordo but also help shake the regime's pillars.

The Islamic regime has a destruction contract on Israel and has worked intensively to achieve nuclear weapons and destroy it through cruel terror. In the Middle East there is no place for two states, Islamic Iran and the State of Israel. If Israel desires life it must aspire to overthrow the regime.

The Iranian regime fights today alone, after the proxy array it established and nurtured over decades collapsed, and thus Iran remains exposed and particularly vulnerable. Even the broad legitimacy in the international arena that Israel enjoys in its war signals the regime's isolation.

Given broad popular uprising in Iran, within which the masses would take to the streets and demand the regime's overthrow, the Iranian opposition would gain support, in a graduated process, from Western governments.

Revolutions are inherently volatile and tough to spark from abroad, but escalating attacks on regime strongholds and oppressive mechanisms could ignite public belief that the moment for upheaval has arrived.

Dr. Yossi Mansharof is an expert on Iran and Shiite political Islam at the Misgav Institute for National Security & Zionist Strategy, in Jerusalem.

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Video: The scene of the missile strike on Tel Aviv on June 22, 2025 / Credit: Usage under Israel's intellectual property law section 27a

The missile barrage from Iran caused at least 20 casualties, including two with serious casualties. The barrages included about 30 missiles in the first barrage to central Israel and the coast, followed by another five fired several minutes later to northern Israel and Samaria.

Video: The scene of the missile strike on Tel Aviv on June 22, 2025 / Credit: Usage under Israel's intellectual property law section 27a

First responders were evacuating people who were injured in Haifa, Tel Aviv, Rehovot, and Ness Ziona. At least three of the injured were children.

Central Tel Aviv residential area pic.twitter.com/zeJinusM3i

— ‏Tal Schneider טל שניידר تال شنايدر (@talschneider) June 22, 2025

The Magen David Adom rescue service reported receiving approximately ten reports of impact sites across Israel. Several casualties reported, mostly with light injuries, but two were in serious condition.

Video: The scene of the missile strike on Haifa on June 22, 2025 / Credit: Usage under Israel's intellectual property law section 27a

The Israeli military confirmed detecting dozens of launches from Iran, triggering sirens across the country. Home Front Command issued alerts for the north and central regions as air defense systems engaged the incoming threats.

Israelis were allowed to leave the shelter at around 8:20 p.m., some 30 minutes after the first volley.

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"The Israeli people are paying a tremendous price and bearing it magnificently," Netanyahu stated. "There are personal costs involved, people have been injured, and sadly some have been killed. Families have lost their beloved ones, and I deeply value their sacrifice. Each of us carries a personal burden – this hasn't spared my own family, as this marks the second time my son Avner has had to cancel his wedding." The prime minister also referenced his wife Sara Netanyahu, noting she has "carried a personal burden for years" as he spearheads Israel's campaign against Iran's nuclear ambitions.

Netanyahu highlighted the contrast between Israeli and Iranian targeting methods, explaining "we can see the complete difference – we strike with precision against military objectives while they target hospitals where patients cannot even evacuate. This represents the fundamental distinction between a democracy operating under legal constraints to protect itself and these killers. It speaks volumes."

When questioned whether Khamenei should be considered "a dead man," Netanyahu declined to dismiss the possibility of elimination. "Nobody enjoys immunity," the prime minister declared. "Every option remains open, though I would rather not discuss such matters publicly and allow our actions to communicate our intentions." He emphasized that "during wartime, words must be selected with great care – and actions executed with absolute precision." He appeared to walk back the statement made by Defense Minister Israel Katz a short while earlier that Khamenei should not be allowed to exit.  Netanyahu said Israel's operation had only two direct goals: To rid the threat posed by Iran's nuclear capabilities and to deny it the possibility of attacking Israel with ballistic missiles, thus appearing to exclude regime change but without explicitly rejecting Katz's comments.

Katz's comments on potentially targeting Khamenei were made when he visited the missile impact zone in Holon, where he issued the war's first explicit elimination threat against Khamenei. "Any dictator like Khamenei, who leads Iran while proclaiming Israel's destruction as his banner – simply cannot be permitted to continue existing," he declared.

On potential American involvement in future operations, Netanyahu commented "that decision rests with President Donald Trump, who understands the dynamics at play." He also addressed speculation about regime change in Iran, drawing historical parallels by noting "twenty-five centuries ago, Cyrus liberated the Jewish people – today the Jewish people are assisting the Persian people in achieving their freedom."

He said Iran had the chance to dismantle its nuclear program through talks, but they squandered that opportunity by not reaching a deal with the US.

"He [President Trump] gave them the chance to do it through negotiations, they strung them along. You don't string along Donald Trump, you know, he knows the game, and I think that we're both committed to making sure that Iran will not have a nuclear weapon and they won't."

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During his remarks at the scene, the defense minister added that "for decades, Khamenei has been a sole ruler. A dictator who has inscribed the destruction of the State of Israel on his flag. This is a terrible thing – such a person must not be allowed to exist. Alongside the operational objectives, preventing the existence of such a thing is also part of the goals. It's like a hornet's nest – when you approach it, you understand its significance."

In statements he published shortly before on social media, Katz wrote that "the cowardly Iranian dictator sits in the depths of his fortified bunker and fires targeted shots toward hospitals and residential buildings in Israel. These are among the most serious war crimes – and he will pay the price for them."

According to Katz, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and the defense minister instructed the Israel Defense Forces "to increase the intensity of attacks against strategic targets in Iran and against government targets in Tehran – to remove threats from the State of Israel and undermine the ayatollahs' regime."

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu also responded this morning to the Iranian barrage and said that "this morning, Iran's terror thugs fired missiles toward Soroka Hospital in Beer Sheva and toward civilian population in central Israel. We will exact the full price from the tyrants in Tehran."

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Khamenei described national independence as Iran standing firm on its own capabilities. He rejected reliance on external powers' approval.

Video: Iran's leader speaks on the nuclear program / Credit: Iran social media

The ethos of "We can" fuels Iran's self-reliance, he said, referring to the US insistence that Iran won't enrich uranium on its soil. "The US plan regarding the nuclear issue is completely contrary to this principle," Khamenei said. He emphasized that US strategies clash with Iran's commitment to autonomy. He added that "a nuclear program without enrichment is useless."

"National independence means that the Iranian nation stands on its own feet. National independence means not waiting for a green or red light from the United States or others," he said. 

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Externally, the Iranian regime appears preoccupied with managing its proxies, future investments in Syria, and rehabilitating Hezbollah – but behind the scenes, Iranian society itself is approaching collapse. Air pollution, shortages of oil and gas, frequent power outages, unpaid salaries, and brain drain are just some of the problems that Iranian citizens face daily, but these issues are worsening daily with cumulative damage.

In conversations with researchers studying Iranian society, issues of corruption and sanctions emerge, leading to the collapse Iran faces today. Will all these troubles lead Iranian citizens to revolt? The question remains open.

So, what actually tops the agenda of Iranian citizens these days? "In recent weeks, it has mainly been the new hijab law, and in the past two years, it has generally been about the hijab and women's rights," says Thamar Eilam Gindin, an Iran specialist at the University of Haifa's Ezri Center for Iran and Persian Gulf Studies. "The fall of [President Bashar] Assad is also on the agenda, in two contexts: One is that [Supreme Leader Ali] Khamenei's end is approaching because all his proxies are being eliminated one after another. The second relates to the electricity crisis: There are planned power outages, and I remind you that we're in a very cold period. Iranians are returning to heating with gas and oil, which never ceased but claims victims every winter. Last week even government offices didn't operate every day because there isn't enough electricity to run them."

According to Professor Meir Litvak, senior research associate at the Alliance Center for Iranian Studies at Tel Aviv University, the causes of the problems can be divided into sanctions, corruption, and poor management by the Iranian regime. "The sanctions make things very difficult for them, including in the oil sector. Iran needs to purchase equipment to renew oil production, but sanctions and costs make this challenging. The oil they do have is sold to the Chinese at a discount. Iran has potential for oil and gas exports, but they have shortages of both. There's a decrease in production and increase in consumption that leads, among other things, to problems in electricity production and supply."

The second factor is mismanagement of the Iranian economy. "There is corruption on a massive scale. Last year, Iran ranked 149th out of 190 countries on the global corruption index (with 190 being the most corrupt). There is also populist management, for example in fuel subsidies – a system that creates corruption and terrible waste of fuel, leading to fuel smuggling to neighboring countries. They also subsidize food and operate with several different exchange rates, which is another gateway to corruption. In global currency terms – 770,000 rials to the dollar were recorded, an all-time low that leads to food price increases."

Reports about what's happening in Iran paint a grim picture. Severe drug problems, routine executions, and dedicated "treatment" of modesty issues all point to evil combined with corruption by the regime and the Revolutionary Guards. Those who can leave. Too many remain and suffer.

According to Eilam Gindin, "brain drain is one of the biggest problems of the Islamic republic. They invest heavily in education, schools for gifted boys and girls – but then there are no positions available. Because for positions you need connections. So they flee to the West and excel there. For example, Maryam Mirzakhani, the first and only Iranian woman to be honored with the Fields Medal – the equivalent of the Nobel Prize in mathematics."

Litvak notes that "100,000 professionals leave Iran annually, mainly doctors and engineers. There is a severe shortage of nurses in the country. To the point where there's a phenomenon of nurse suicides due to overwork."

"On the other hand," says Eilam Gindin, "this situation doesn't provoke action. What prompts action are economic issues. Now they're waiting for the spark that will ignite the next riots, like the death of Mahsa Amini. This time the Islamic republic doesn't have allies like [Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan] Nasrallah, who sent 22,000 soldiers to help suppress the protests two years ago. The drying up of proxies also means there's no presence and no way to transfer equipment to Hamas and Hezbollah. It's also a blow to their reputation, because who would want to be under their wing now, if their wings no longer protect. This was also an important source of mercenaries in the regime's most difficult war – the war against the people, and it's disappearing."

Drug trafficking is also flourishing in Iran. Eilam Gindin continued, "Drug trafficking is one of the crimes punishable by death. In recent months, dozens of people have been executed each month for drugs (the other two leading charges are rape and murder). There's a severe drug problem because people want to escape reality and feel they have no hope."

Litvak points to all these issues and adds, "The electricity problems that erupted now due to gas shortages lead to the use of mazut, which causes terrible air pollution. Tehran, situated between mountains, suffers from a severe air pollution problem because the air is trapped there. In the last month, schools and government offices were closed after residents were told not to go outside. This pollution also affects other cities.

"Another problem that arises is that people like teachers work and don't receive their salary from the state on time. So there have been many strikes in the last two years. Oil industry workers aren't receiving wages and pensioners see their pensions being severely eroded. The population is aging, and therefore they need to raise the retirement age, but the regime hesitates because it's a political problem they're not comfortable dealing with."

Additionally, Litvak reports that a significant portion of Iranian banks are bankrupt. There's a water crisis due to improper management of water resources and the list goes on. All this, both conclude, creates a difficult reality for Iranian citizens.

Q: Do Iranian citizens follow the regime's investments in its war against Israel?

"They clearly do," Eilam Gindin says, explaining that Iranians are acutely aware of their government's foreign spending. For two decades, protestors have criticized the regime's prioritization of foreign conflicts over domestic needs, with a common protest chant rejecting involvement in Gaza, Lebanon, and Yemen in favor of focusing on Iran itself. This sentiment is also reflected in Iranian protest music, with songs criticizing the government for sending money to Palestine while Iranians struggle financially. The protesters particularly highlight how the regime supports foreign causes while Iranian ethnic minorities, such as the Kurds and Baluchis, face poverty and hunger at home.

"After Assad's fall, the extent of Iranian investment in Syria was revealed – staying there cost 50 billion dollars, plus another 30 billion dollars defined as Syria's debt to Iran, which presumably won't be repaid. With 80 billion dollars, they could have fed many poor people, built schools, and more. And all this while there isn't enough electricity for the proper operation of government offices."

Litvak adds, "Citizens see losses of tens of billions in Syria, and that's without estimating how much money was invested in Hamas and Hezbollah. Some Iranians understand this, but it's impossible to know what percentage. The corruption and poor management – every Iranian understands. The regime is begging to lift the sanctions because they're in a desperate economic situation. But Khamenei is very suspicious of the West. Maybe with Trump he'll try to go for a new agreement."

In Israel, they see the difficulties experienced by the Iranian people and often discuss – not nuclear destruction but the potentially more effective results of a revolution and toppling the ayatollahs' regime. Prime Minsiter Benjamin Netanyahu himself has repeatedly called on the Iranian people "not to lose hope, because the regime grows weaker every day." According to Litvak, Netanyahu isn't popular in Iran because he's perceived as the one who caused the US to exit the nuclear deal – which caused the severe economic damage the country is experiencing.

Q: If the situation is so difficult, why aren't the Iranian people revolting?

"Because of fear," Litvak says. "The regime has proven its efficiency and brutality in suppression, and that's deterring. This vile regime shot women in the eyes, and hundreds of young women lost at least one eye and were blinded during protests. They deliberately shot them in the chest. Hundreds were killed. This creates fear, and I understand that.

"Additionally, there's no leadership from religious figures and the opposition abroad is worthless. The Mujahedeen are hated because they're seen as traitors. There's no leadership to organize demonstrations. The regime controls the internet and monitors the network quickly to silence protests. Therefore, no one can know if they're alone or if there are others like them who want to protest. The Iranian also sees the results of the 'Arab Spring' and the chaos in various places and tells themselves 'who needs this?', maybe if we overthrow the clerics we'll get a Revolutionary Guards dictatorship?"

Nevertheless, Eilam Gindin estimates that Netanyahu's calls fall on attentive ears. "The Iranians are waiting for Bibi to do the work for them. After, from their perspective, he eliminated [Hamas Gaza leader Yahya] Sinwar, Nasrallah, [Hamas political bureau chief Ismail] Haniyeh, and several others less famous, they're calling on him to eliminate their leader too. There's admiration among Iranians in Iran and in exile for Bibi because of this, and it's somewhat heartbreaking."

Regarding uprising and revolution – Litvak and Eilam Gindin both find it difficult to predict. According to Eilam Gindin, "what will bring them to the streets isn't Netanyahu's call, but the next thing that happens, which we don't know what it will be. We didn't think the protests after Mahsa Amini's death would last more than a week or two and they lasted more than half a year, and in fact, the movement is still alive. On the other hand, the death of 16-year-old Armita Geravand a year later under exactly the same circumstances didn't turn into a massive protest, because the Islamic Republic learned from the previous year's mistakes and knew how to prevent it.

"You just need to look around us to understand that revolution in Iran is a plausible scenario. Whether it happens tomorrow, in a year, or in 20 years – that's another question. What happens in Syria now will determine the future of the protest. In 2011, they saw the Arab Spring and even tried to join it. Then they saw Saddam Hussein go and ISIS arrive. In Syria, the Arab Spring turned into a civil war that only ended now, after 14 years, and we don't know what will be. Also, in other countries that had an Arab Spring, the situation isn't great. They already know from 1979 that sometimes, whoever replaces the dictator is a worse dictator."

Eilam Gindin suggests that while a revolution in Iran seems inevitable, its timing remains uncertain. The outcome in Syria will likely influence Iranian protesters' willingness to act. Their caution stems from observing the mixed results of regional uprisings: the Arab Spring's transformation into prolonged civil war in Syria, the rise of ISIS after Saddam Hussein's fall in Iraq, and disappointing outcomes in other countries that experienced popular revolts. The Iranian people are particularly wary, having learned from their own 1979 revolution that overthrowing one authoritarian regime can sometimes lead to an even more oppressive replacement.

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Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei claimed Tehran possesses evidence that the United States and Israel orchestrated the collapse of Syria's Assad regime, according to Iranian state news agency IRNA.

The comments come just days after Syrian President Bashar al-Assad fled to Moscow following the rapid capture of Damascus by opposition forces led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and its leader Abu Mohammad al-Jawlani, marking a dramatic end to the Assad family's decades-long rule over Syria.

"There should be no doubt that what happened in Syria is the result of a joint American and Zionist plan," Khamenei said, according to IRNA, in his first public comments since the fall of his longtime regional ally.

In his remarks reported by IRNA, Khamenei alleged that while a neighboring country – presumably Turkey – has played an evident role in Syria's situation, the primary responsibility lies with Western powers. "Yes, the neighboring country of Syria has played a clear role in this matter and continues to do so – this is evident to all – but the primary conspirator, the main planner, and the central command room are in the United States and the Zionist regime," he said.

The Supreme Leader further claimed to have definitive proof of these allegations, stating: "We have evidence. This evidence leaves no room for doubt." The statement marks Iran's first official response to the fall of Assad's government, which Tehran had supported militarily and financially throughout Syria's civil war.

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Ruhollah Khomeini, leader of Iran's 1979 Islamic Revolution, liked to chant "Death to Israel!" and "Death to America!" Ali Khamenei, who succeeded him in 1989, designed a strategy to make progress toward those goals. He organized, funded, and armed multiple terrorist groups in the lands surrounding Israel.

Former Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett likened these proxies to the tentacles of an octopus. So long as Israel was busy wrestling with them, the head of the octopus could rest safely in Tehran. Meanwhile, Khamenei's scientists were developing nuclear weapons and missiles to deliver them to targets anywhere – America very much included. This shrewd strategy has now unraveled – significantly though not completely.

Following Hamas' barbaric invasion into Israel from Gaza on Oct. 7, 2023, Hezbollah began firing rockets from Lebanon into Israel. The IDF mounted a counterattack that, more than a year later, has succeeded in crippling Hamas and Hezbollah – to the chagrin of "the international community." Plus, in response to enormous missile barrages fired from Iranian soil in April and October of this year, the Israeli Air Force moved to strip Khamenei of his air defenses.

In Syria, rebels recognized the unique opportunity these developments presented. Late last month, they attacked the armed forces of longtime dictator Bashar Assad in Aleppo, Syria's second largest city. Those forces turned tail and ran. The rebels then marched south to the cities of Hama and Homs and, on Sunday, they took Damascus, the Syrian capital.

Hezbollah did not ride to Assad's rescue. Nor did Russian dictator Vladimir Putin who has been stretched thin by his imperialist war against Ukraine. Instead, he pulled some of his ships and military equipment from the sole Mediterranean naval base he occupies – for now – at the port of Tartus. As for Khamenei, he decided not to risk his own troops or those of his Shia militias in Iraq.

Assad has reportedly fled to Moscow. You'll note he did not choose to relocate to Tehran where his wife, Asma, might have had to drape herself in a burka. (This must come as a relief to the editors at Vogue magazine who, in a March 2011 cover story, praised the fashionable Mrs. Assad as "A Rose in the Desert.")

The defeat of the dynastic Syrian dictator, responsible for the slaughter of a half million of his fellow countrymen and the displacement of millions more, deserves celebration, as does the cracking of Khamenei's imperialist, settler-colonialist project. But, in the world we live in, there are no permanent victories. Remember the excitement over the Arab Spring? And who did not think that, following the collapse of the Soviet Union, Russia would have decent governments?

Of the many Syrian rebel groups now vying for power, the strongest is Hayat Tahrir al Sham. Designated by the US as a foreign terrorist organization, HTS's roots trace to al Qaeda and the Islamic State. Its leader, Abu Mohammed al-Jawlani, claims he has broken with both. HTS is supported by Recep Tayyip Erdogan, president of Turkey which is a member of NATO. If that sounds reassuring, factor in that Erdogan also is a supporter of the Muslim Brotherhood and Hamas. He recently said, "Western civilization will collapse; our divine and humane civilization will flourish."

HTS is believed to receive support as well from Qatar, which President Joe Biden, for reasons I can't fathom, named a "major non-NATO ally." Qatar's rulers also are pro-Muslim Brotherhood and pro-Hamas. Al Jazeera, their global media network, is cleverly anti-American and viciously anti-Israeli.

Meanwhile, in Tehran, I imagine that Khamenei is furiously pounding his desk, asking his underlings how long before his nukes will be ready. At this point, the US government – it would be useful for the outgoing Biden administration and the incoming Trump administration to be on the same page here – should warn HTS and others, Erdogan included, that attacks against Americans or friends of Americans will bring severe consequences. Among those friends: Christians, Druze, and Kurds (who have been working hand-in-glove with 900 elite US troops to prevent the Islamic State from reconstituting).

While it's too soon to say who will rule Syria, a land once known as the "cradle of civilization," over the months and years ahead, the Israelis are shaping the environment. More specifically: They are demilitarizing Syria.

Israeli fighter jets have struck tanks, helicopters, planes, and warships. Most significantly, they have destroyed the weapons facilities where Assad stockpiled chemical weapons that could have fallen into the hands of terrorists. The "international community" should thank the Israelis. Don't hold your breath.

Here's what else would make the world a safer place: If the US, on its own or in cooperation with Israel, would make plans to derail Tehran's nuclear weapons and missile programs. The fall of the Assad regime and the fracturing of Khamenei's anti-American and anti-Israeli axis have created a chance to restructure the Middle East.

This lesson should be clear: Though might may not make right, it is might that alters reality in ways that diplomats, peace processers, and calls for "de-escalation" and "ceasefire" do not. That suggests that Trump's most essential mission should be to re-build US military strength; to ensure that America's capabilities are sufficient to overwhelm any enemy or combination of enemies. If those enemies perceive that we have such capabilities and the will to deploy them, they are likely to be deterred.

Such capabilities do not come cheap, but deterring enemies is always cheaper than fighting wars against them. And winning wars is always preferable – in multiple ways – to losing wars.

Clifford D. May is president of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies and a columnist for The Washington Times.

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In an escalation of rhetoric, Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei suggested Sunday that the International Criminal Court in The Hague should pursue capital punishment rather than arrest warrants for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

The remarks came during Khamenei's address to members of the Basij force, a paramilitary organization known for its role in internal security operations and suppression of domestic opposition in Iran.

During his speech to the assembled forces, Khamenei claimed that "Iran's Basij will certainly succeed in destroying the Zionist regime in one day." He continued with rhetoric against Israeli military operations, stating, "Bombing homes in Lebanon and Gaza is not victory. They are foolish if they think that bombing homes, hospitals, and gatherings constitutes victory. No one sees this as victory."

"What the Zionists are doing is a war crime," Khamenei told his forces, referring to existing ICC warrants before adding, "but that's not enough. They must issue a death sentence for Netanyahu. This criminal leader must receive a death sentence."

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Professor Meir Litvak is a historian and chair of the Department of Middle Eastern and African History at Tel Aviv University. 

Q: The surprise attack by the Hamas terrorist organization on Oct. 7th has proved several Israeli assumptions wrong. As an expert on the Middle East, would you say the concept that Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah is cautious and does not wish to engage in war with Israel has also been shattered? 

"As strange as it may sound, the concept still stands because Nasrallah has not yet launched a full campaign against Israel, and his activity on the border is also considered to be below the threshold of war, seemingly cautious."

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Q: Isn't it absurd that this is the definition of relative caution? We see more and more terror acts and threats in the north and already have casualties. 

"Nasrallah is nearing that boundary and constantly pushes the limit of provocation without forcing Israel into a complete war with Lebanon, at this time. But it does necessitate Israel to turn its attention and resources there. What I am describing may change at any moment, if the circumstances change for Nasrallah. If he decides that Israel is weak or ineffective, he may act differently."

Q: On the other hand, if a war does break out with Lebanon, Nasrallah must understand that the damage of the 2006 Lebanon War will pale in comparison. 

"He understands this very well, but if he concludes that Israel is sinking in the mud of Gaza, exhausted, and the IDF worn out, he may be tempted to act, and this is a very dark scenario as far as we are concerned. Another option is that the situation in Gaza will become catastrophic, Hamas will collapse and the Iranians will order Nasrallah to save what is left. In such a case, he may be forced to act against his will."

Q: Is there a scenario where Nasrallah will not comply with Iran, assuming that the price for him will be too high?

"When foreign media reported in August that Israel struck a drone factory in Iran, Nasrallah was quick to announce that revenge would come from Tehran. That is, he removed from himself the responsibility to respond. Is that what will happen now too? It depends on the circumstances, and making predictions in the Middle East is a very dubious business."

Q: Either way, the strategic surprise he aspired to, an ideological victory, he won't receive. 

"Then he will have to settle for a tactical surprise. There are still forces at the border, and it is possible to surprise them. After what happened in Gaza, anything can happen, even when we are on high alert."

Q: What do you think Nasrallah wishes for strategically? He said he wanted to conquer the Galilee. And what then? 

"Such an occupation, even for a short amount of time, would be a tremendous strategic blow to Israel. If we compare it to what is happening in the Gaza periphery, are we sure it will return to normal? That the kibbutzim will be restored? The same is true in the north. A strategic defeat for Israel is part of a long and historical process, which for them includes the decline of Israel and its collapse. If tens of thousands of Israelis leave the country because of the war, that too they view as a step toward Israel's collapse. And they are convinced it will happen, as are Hamas and Iran."

Q: They had a once-in-a-century opportunity on Oct. 7. Why did they not go all the way? 

"I don't think they were aware yet of the magnitude of the achievement on the first day. War is also not something that you can start in half an hour, and activating the missiles takes a certain amount of time. Moreover, it is quite possible that they feared the magnitude of the blow that Israel would retaliate with. Hezbollah is still cautious."

Q: From the outside, Nasrallah is cautious, perhaps deterred. From the inside, is Nasrallah's position as secretary-general of Hezbollah strong and stable?

"He is the undisputed leader of Hezbollah. In the Shiite group, his position is strong, he is admired, successful, and sophisticated."

Q: He is less revered in Lebanon. 

"True, the Lebanese people are angry at him and hold him responsible for the country's devastating economy. But in Hezbollah, his position is strong."

Q: Hezbollah is a separate economic entity from Lebanon. A Hezbollah fighter earns as much as the Lebanese chief of staff. Does Nasrallah care about Lebanon at all? 

"He created this myth that he is the defender of Lebanon. Nasrallah was portrayed as the one who restored Lebanon's sovereignty after the IDF withdrew from the security zone in 2000. He does not want to go down in history as the destroyer of Lebanon if another war breaks out against Israel.

"It's true that Hezbollah operates as an independent economic system, and to a large extent damages the Lebanese economy and destroys it, but it still wants to appear as the savior of Lebanon. That's why Nasrallah is walking a tightrope between promoting Hezbollah's interests and protecting Lebanon."

Q: And how would you describe the relationship between Hezbollah and Syria?

"As far as Syria is concerned, when [former President] Hafez Assad was still alive, Nasrallah reported to him. But today the relationship between Hezbollah and Syria is more like that of equals. Bashar Assad listens to Nasrallah's advice and wisdom. The relationship between Syria and Hezbollah has changed a lot in Nasrallah's favor, and this is part of his achievement."

Q: Does Nasrallah really understand Israeli society, as he claims?

"I think his 'spider web' theory is wrong. He thought that if we were given a small blow, we would collapse. But even in the face of the failure of state institutions, we see Israeli society, and its strength. At the same time, he understands well the psychology of Israelis. He knows how to play on our fears, and he is taunting us by inciting fear."

Q: If you had to guess, what do you think is going through Nasrallah's mind at the moment? 

"He wants to see how the Israelis act, how strongly we react. He watches with curiosity to understand how this event will end and remains vigilant. He raises the threshold of provocation all the time, and it is always possible that he will take one step too far."

Q: And what do we know about him as a person? 

"He came from the lower class and studied in Najaf, Iraq. Although he was not a student of [former Supreme Leader of Iran] Ruhollah Khomeini, he certainly absorbed the radical spirit. He returned to Lebanon, stood out as a very talented person, and what's interesting is that when it was decided to replace the first leader of Hezbollah, Subhi al-Tufayli, they wanted Nasrallah to be the one to replace him, but he refused. He was in his early 30s then and said that he was too young, not mature enough, and decided that he did not want leadership. In the end, Abbas al-Musawi took office, and chose Nasrallah as his number two."

Q: And what does that tell you? 

"That Nasrallah is not an obsessive honor seeker, he is cautious and relatively modest. Furthermore, he sent his son to fight in Israel, and he was killed in one of the encounters with the IDF. That is, he not only sends others to die but also endangers his family and is ready to pay a personal price. It increases his prestige."

Q: You mentioned al-Musawi, who was assassinated by Israel. What do you think the repercussions would be if the IDF assassinated Nasrallah? 

"Because he is so talented and dangerous, it's unlikely that we'll get a worse replacement." 

Q: And what can be said of Nasrallah's relationship with the Supreme Leader of Iran Ali Khamenei?

"Iran sees him as the leader of Hezbollah. Khamenei appreciates him and even likes him, while Nasrallah sees Khamenei as his supreme leader, and he is also subordinate to him. Let's not forget that Nasrallah ranks low in terms of his position in the religious hierarchy, he is a member of the Shiite religious establishment. When Nasrallah meets with Khamenei, he kisses his hand. It is a sign that 'I am subjected to you'. In other words, Hezbollah does not start anything strategic here without an order from Khamenei."

Q: What about the interesting dynamic we've seen since the beginning of the war: Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh's meeting with Iran's Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian, or for example, Nasrallah's meeting with him? What is the nature of the communication like these days along the Hezbollah-Iran-Hamas axis?

"Let's not forget that Saleh al-Arouri, the deputy head of Hamas' political bureau, is in Beirut, and he maintains close and daily contact with Nasrallah. Just a few months ago, Hezbollah, Hamas, and the Palestinian Islamic Jihad established a joint headquarters in Beirut, and it is clear that such a headquarters also includes members of the IRGC. 

"That is, it is clear that the Iranians are considering a scenario of the convergence of the arenas, and it is clear that the Hezbollah-Iran-Hamas triangle is very active, and even more so in times of war. We can assume that Hamas hoped Hezbollah would enter the war much faster.

"But Iran is not necessarily eager to use Hezbollah, unless as a last resort. Iran has always maintained Hezbollah as the arm that would act against Israel if Israel attacked Iran. But now the chance of Israel attacking Iran is zero, and then Iran may decide that it is possible to use Hezbollah."

Q: Why is the chance of Israel attacking Iran now zero?

"It would be a bad idea to attack Iran. Look at how we dealt with Hamas, and the amount of resources we will have to invest there is still far from over. So going to war with a country 1,500 kilometers [932 miles] away, a country with 2,500 ballistic missiles that can reach any point in Israel, sounds like a far-fetched idea. We can't handle our weakest enemy well, so how do we handle our strongest enemy? We need to stop with this arrogance, according to which we can do anything, and recognize the limit of our power."

Q: Given your in-depth knowledge of Khamenei, what do you think is going through his mind at the moment? What are his red lines?

"Khamenei detests Israel with all his heart and wishes for its destruction. He also did not hide his great joy at what happened to us. However, he is cautious. He does not want direct Iranian involvement, and it is very important to him that there be no Israeli hit inside Iran. That is why he is determined and sophisticated in using his proxies, Hezbollah for example, who will do the job.

"Khamenei had an opportunity on Oct. 7th, but he also has a historical vision, so he is not in a hurry to destroy Israel right now. His ideological view is that Israel's blood must be shed, brought to its collapse so that it will submit to Iran's demands and no longer exist as a Jewish state. Then, according to his vision, we will all return 'home' – some to Morocco and some to Ukraine. Along the way, it is important to him that Hamas does not collapse, and there is a danger that he will try to push Hezbollah to intervene, but without Iran itself bearing responsibility for the results."

Q: What else do we know about Khamenei as a person? 

"He is a cunning and sophisticated politician. He is not a great light from a halachic point of view, but completely mediocre. He nurtured the Revolutionary Guards, which is the focus of his main power. He is also suspicious because every president who served under him in Iran was failed by him. He is obsessed with his hatred for America, and especially for Israel.

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"A research analysis revealed that Israel appears in his speeches 90% of the time, while in Khomeini's it appeared only about 40% of the time. Khamenei is also modest. He makes sure to dress modestly. [Former President of Iran] Hassan Rouhani, who by the way does not drink coffee without the supreme leader's permission, posed for a photo with an expensive Rolex watch. You won't see such mannerisms in Khamenei."

Q: We know he is Israel's nightmare, but it turns out that his successor is equally worrisome. 

"He is grooming his son to succeed him, and this is a very problematic move in Shia Islam. His son is worse than him. He is close to the most extreme circles in the Iranian system. Khamenei may hate America and Israel, but he also has an inherent caution and fear. His son has no fear. He belongs to a generation that is used to seeing a powerful Iran. It does not have the past memories of a weak, pre-modern Iran, and this may bring it to a state of lack of caution, even lack of restraint. On the face of it, he seems more worrying than Khamenei."

Q: In conclusion, what do people not really understand about Hezbollah, about Iran?

"Both Iran and Hezbollah are rational and pragmatic entities, but not moderate. They do not wish to commit suicide and die for the sanctification of God, and perhaps that is why we have not seen them join the war until now. They consider their actions in a measured and cold manner. At the moment, it seems that they are reluctant to take extensive action against Israel, due to a series of considerations. On the other hand, Iran threatened to intervene if Israel destroys Hamas. What will the Iranians decide at a given moment? As I said - it is not smart to make predictions about the Middle East. 

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