Some are unfolding right now. Understandings solidifying between the United States, Israel, Arab states and others demand serious preparation, diplomatic and security work, and nonstop attention. Right now, Israel is pushing with the United States an international deal to end the Gaza war by stripping Hamas of weapons, demilitarizing the Gaza Strip, and ultimately expanding peace deals.

Nothing far-fetched here, over two years since the war started with the October 7 massacre. The Middle East braces for dramatic shifts, with Israel driving most directly or indirectly – backed or trailed by the US.

Challenges versus opportunities

Top challenge: Iran, chief source of chaos, terror and war against Israel and the region. Last June's 12-Day War exposed Tehran's radical regime as weak and exposed, unable to shield facilities or top officials. It also opened a rare shot at toppling the Islamist dictatorship.

Iran's economy crumbles day after day, poverty surges, educated masses flee, water is running out – yes, literally. Reservoirs shut one by one, taps run dry across vast areas, and unrest builds. The regime cracks down brutally, cuts internet to contain it.

Israeli and Washington sources see regime collapse as viable amid civilian strife. That could transform Israel's security and strategic situation, removing its top existential threat. Plus, it would gut funding for Hezbollah, Houthis, Hamas and other Iran-backed terror groups.

Opportunities include Saudi Arabia, among others. Israel Hayom reported Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman's White House meeting with President Donald Trump fell short of normalization kickoff hopes. Still, everyone knows the process starts soon – likely post-war. Contacts already run direct and indirect on specifics like overflights via Saudi airspace, trade deals, security and cyber business with Saudis, and beyond.

Netanyahu hinting at under-the-radar progress? Entirely plausible – maybe crafting a deal letting bin Salman claim victory on demands, netting F-35s or even a US nuclear reactor in trade.

A Saudi deal or normalization talks would mark a huge win for Israel and Netanyahu, pulling more nations into Abraham Accords – ties with Israel, trade pacts, and real Palestinian conflict progress.

The implicit statement in Netanyahu's letter is that he can bring about the strategic achievements, or more precisely, only he can.

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Sources quoted by the Arab daily said bin Salman explained to Trump that an agreement is needed to ensure stability across the Middle East and warned that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's government might attempt to disrupt the effort and initiate a new military escalation against Iran.

According to the information provided in the report, the Saudi side contacted Iran's leadership immediately after bin Salman concluded his White House visit. The sides reportedly agreed to hold a high-level meeting within the next 24 hours in Paris between senior Saudi and Iranian officials, followed by Saudi-led shuttle diplomacy between Washington and Tehran.

The sources said bin Salman had asked Iran's National Security Council chief Ali Larijani during their recent meeting in Riyadh about Tehran's position on a Saudi mediation initiative between Iran and Washington. According to the report, Larijani reiterated a positive response but stressed that Iran would not make concessions, especially after what the report described as the Israeli-American war against Iran last June.

The sources added that the Saudi side also discussed the importance of reaching an understanding with Iran to help facilitate reconciliation with Yemen, a point that appeared to face resistance from the pro-Israel American team. According to the report, this was the first time Saudi Arabia expressed concerns to the Americans about what it called a new Israeli gamble aimed at eliminating any chance for regional peace. The report noted that bin Salman and Trump agreed that stability in the Middle East cannot be achieved without an understanding with Iran and that Trump did not oppose the idea.

The developments come amid renewed debate in Tehran over the future of Iran's nuclear capability and the possibility that Western countries might seek to bring the issue before the UN Security Council following Iran's decision to stop working under its agreement with the International Atomic Energy Agency.

Koroush Ahmadi, a former diplomat and foreign policy expert, said the IAEA's recent resolution lacks any direct enforcement mechanism and that Iran's stance should therefore be viewed as proportional. Ahmadi told the state-run newspaper Iran that the Western decision not to refer the case to the Security Council may signal a Western message indicating a window of opportunity.

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The Kingdom would receive a "major non-NATO ally" designation under the pact, a formal status enhancing defense collaboration while stopping short of a security guarantee, according to POLITICO. Joining 19 other nations in this category, Saudi Arabia would stand alongside Israel, Jordan, Kuwait, and Qatar with this classification.

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This is bin Salman's first trip to Washington since the 2018 murder of the Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi, a harsh critic of the kingdom's leadership and a supporter of the Muslim Brotherhood, carried out by Saudi agents at the country's consulate in Istanbul. The incident triggered an unprecedented crisis and a period of strained ties, especially during Joe Biden's administration.

The Biden administration sought to sideline bin Salman over the Khashoggi affair, rendering him persona non grata in Washington, until Biden himself was forced to travel to Riyadh to ask the crown prince to increase oil production amid soaring global energy prices. That visit is mostly remembered for the president's awkward, forced fist bump with the crown prince.

Trump, by contrast, views the 40-year-old heir apparent as a central player in shaping the Middle East in the coming decades. The US president aims to return to the golden era of bilateral ties that characterized his first term, when the Saudis were a leading US ally in the region.

"They were great allies," Trump told reporters on Monday. "They certainly love us very much. Look at the situation in Iran, we destroyed their nuclear capability. Yes, I am saying we will do this," he added, referring to the plan to sell F-35 jets to Riyadh.

In Israel, the idea is being received with concern. Beyond the risks inherent in another country acquiring the most advanced aircraft available for sale, such a move would erode Israel's qualitative military edge, a core principle in Washington's relationship with Jerusalem.

Even within the Trump administration there are reservations. Some fear that the sale could open the door for China to access advanced American technology, according to a New York Times report this week. But the president views the deal as part of a broader effort to keep Saudi Arabia aligned with the US and not with China.

Trump is expected to press bin Salman to join the Abraham Accords and normalize relations with Israel. The president sees Saudi Arabia, the largest Arab economy and the leader of the Muslim world, as the key to achieving broader regional stability. In recent weeks, Trump even predicted that once Saudi Arabia joins the accords, everyone in the Arab world will follow.

Saudi officials, however, have repeatedly made clear in recent months that they will not abandon their demand for a clear, credible and irreversible pathway to a Palestinian state, even if today's meeting may help restart negotiations between Jerusalem and Riyadh.

A series of economic deals

Beyond defense and diplomatic issues, the visit is expected to produce several economic agreements. The Saudis plan to announce multibillion-dollar investments in American artificial intelligence infrastructure. In addition, the two countries will release details of cooperation on civilian nuclear energy, a field Saudi Arabia seeks to advance. In the past, this issue was tied to normalization with Israel, but it will now proceed even without it. Trump hopes to finalize the Saudi commitment to invest 600 billion dollars, a pledge made during his 2017 visit to Riyadh.

Saudi media reported Monday that the crown prince is carrying a letter from Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, which he is expected to present to Trump. According to Al Arabiya, the letter was delivered to Saudi Interior Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Saud bin Naif during his recent visit to Iran and his meeting with the head of the pilgrimage organization, Ali Reza Rashidian.

Their meetings are expected to cover additional regional issues, including maintaining the ceasefire in Gaza and potential progress on phase two, shared concerns about Iran, and the civil war in Sudan. On Wednesday, an investment conference will be held at the Kennedy Center with the participation of senior executives from major American companies such as Salesforce, Qualcomm and Pfizer, where more deals are expected to be signed.

A Completely Different Atmosphere

As noted, this is the crown prince's first visit to the US since the murder of Jamal Khashoggi in 2018. This time, with a change of administration, the atmosphere is entirely different. Washington is draped in US and Saudi flags, cannons have been prepared for a salute, an honor guard is in place, and a military flyover will take place above the South Lawn, along with a festive state dinner, signaling the renewed depth of the relationship.

President Donald Trump has returned to the White House and has made his ties with the Saudi prince one of the cornerstones of his foreign policy. According to reports, the president will announce major agreements during the visit, both defense-related and civilian, led by the American approval to sell F-35 jets to Saudi Arabia, a precedent-setting decision that would make the kingdom the first Arab country to operate the most advanced system in the US arsenal.

The president is expected to clearly present his main objective: bringing Saudi Arabia into the Abraham Accords and achieving historic progress toward normalization with Israel. Trump said in recent days that he expects Saudi Arabia to join the accords and predicted that if it does, the entire Arab world will follow.

For now, however, bin Salman is maintaining the kingdom's established position. Saudi Arabia will not take a public step toward normalization without a credible pathway to establishing a Palestinian state.

The Israeli dimension has taken on added weight following the US-backed Security Council resolution adopted Monday, which approved Trump's 20-point plan for the day after in Gaza. The plan includes, in addition to references to an international force, the demilitarization of the Strip and the disarmament of the Hamas terrorist organization, language addressing self-determination and the eventual establishment of a Palestinian state in line with Saudi demands.

The visit is expected to include the signing of new defense agreements, significant Saudi investments in American industries, particularly in infrastructure, artificial intelligence and civilian nuclear cooperation. The Saudis are also expected to seek formal US security guarantees, similar to those granted to Qatar about six weeks ago. At the same time, Trump will try to advance another major initiative for the crown prince: bringing Saudi Arabia back into the IMEC project, a strategic trade corridor linking India, the Middle East and Europe, in which Israel also participates.

Despite the lingering sensitivities surrounding the Khashoggi murder, and despite US intelligence assessments concluding that the prince likely approved the operation, the issue no longer appears to be a central obstacle for the Trump administration. Bin Salman has previously denied ordering the killing but said he accepted responsibility as a leader.

The White House visit marks the return of Mohammed bin Salman to the global stage and the deepening of renewed ties between Washington and Riyadh. But for the White House, the real test lies elsewhere: whether the kingdom will move, even symbolically, toward formal normalization with Israel, a goal Trump sees as essential to expanding the Abraham Accords as part of his effort to establish what he calls lasting peace in the Middle East.

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Earlier, a senior White House official told Reuters that Trump was inclined to support the sale of the American-made F-35 jets to Saudi Arabia. Trump and the crown prince are expected to review the prospective deal as well as steps toward normalization with Israel.

Speaking to reporters several days ago, Trump said he planned to discuss political and security cooperation with the crown prince, including a possible Saudi move to join the Abraham Accords. He noted at the time that the kingdom was interested in acquiring a large number of advanced fighter aircraft.

Trump stressed that Saudi Arabia had formally asked to examine the purchase of F-35s and that the request was now under his consideration. He said the US produces the best aircraft in the world and added that past American actions in the Middle East had demonstrated that superiority. Since the strike on Iran's nuclear capabilities, he said, everyone now wants to negotiate with Washington.

He also referenced the Abraham Accords, saying they would be part of the discussions with Riyadh. He expressed hope that Saudi Arabia would join the initiative soon and claimed that interest in the accords had surged since the US had, in his words, taken Iran out of the game.

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Senior Saudi commentators who spoke with the paper said Riyadh is expected to try to persuade Washington to adopt its approach to the Palestinian issue. They also stressed that Saudi Arabia places major importance on acquiring advanced weaponry and air-defense systems.

Among the officials who traveled to Washington were Defense Minister Khalid bin Salman, the brother of Prime Minister and Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman; State Minister Musaad al-Aiban; Economy and Planning Minister Faisal al-Ibrahim; Communications Minister Abdullah al-Swaha; and Public Investment Fund Governor Yasir al-Rumayyan.

Strategic partnership

The discussions with the American side dealt with the strategic partnership and with regional and international developments. Issues on the agenda included cooperation on AI, advanced technology, investments and economic ties.

Political analyst Munif al-Harbi told Asharq Al-Awsat that the crown prince's visit is expected to include a diplomatic dimension and talks on possible solutions in the Middle East, including the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, a ceasefire in Gaza, and support for stabilizing the situation in Syria and Sudan.

He estimated that the Palestinian issue will certainly be present, along with what he called the "importance of creating a just and permanent solution through a two-state path and the establishment of a Palestinian state". He predicted that all files of mutual strategic interest would come up for discussion, including the Syrian file, the war in Sudan, the Yemeni file, the Lebanese file, and even the war in Ukraine, where Riyadh has served as a mediator.

"The timing of the visit is important for Saudi Arabia at a moment when it has succeeded in strengthening both its regional and international ties and has adopted a policy of positive neutrality", al-Harbi said. He added that "this positive neutrality may allow the kingdom, given the regional and global shifts, to play a role not only in regional matters but also in addressing international issues and serving as a reliable mediator amid global polarization."

Al-Harbi and another political commentator, Ahmed al-Ibrahim, noted that the acquisition of advanced US weapons and air-defense systems for the Saudi military is of paramount importance for the kingdom. This comes in addition to the mutual interest in deepening ties and expanding investments, including in AI.

Al-Ibrahim said the talks are expected to include rounds of political negotiations aimed at persuading Washington of the Saudi perspective, a position shared by many Arab and Muslim states, particularly regarding the establishment of a Palestinian state and a two-state solution.

He said the "visit could become a cornerstone of this file, which enjoys international support". The Saudi commentator also hinted that the outcomes of the summit between President Donald Trump and Prince Mohammed bin Salman could be exceptional and include major understandings that may benefit the region in the coming years, including in security, investment or technological alliances.

"Circles in Washington view the visit as a full reset of relations. Prince bin Salman is entering Washington as the man of the future in the Middle East, not merely as part of a traditional diplomatic visit", al-Harbi said.

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Such fears persist regarding the three remaining fallen hostages in Gaza: Dror Or, Ran Gvili, and Sudthisak Rinthalak. Hamas committed in the deal to return them as well, but it's unclear if it can fulfill that. Senior officials said there are "certain indications" about the possible location of one of the three, though they admitted that for the other two "we're in total darkness."

Israel keeps up the pressure on Hamas over the hostages, mainly through the United States. But now it must also let Washington push forward with its plan for shifting to the next stage of the agreement. The UN Security Council is set to discuss on Monday the creation of a "stabilization force" in Gaza. The Americans are working feverishly to recruit countries that will join the force to be deployed in the Strip (initially along the Egyptian border in Rafah), and it could create several significant headaches for Israel.

The main headache concerns the force's makeup. In Israel, they claim it will get veto power to block soldiers from Turkey or Qatar, but the draft resolution that was published suggests only a "close consultation" with it. Beyond that, the security arrangements to be set opposite it also worry, since for the first time Israel's security will be "privatized" and handed over to foreign forces in a way that could even limit the IDF's freedom of action.

The Americans enjoy significant backing from leading countries in the Arab and Muslim world. Eight of them issued open support for the draft (Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Indonesia, Pakistan, Egypt, Jordan, Qatar, and Turkey), which also explicitly addresses the issue of the Palestinian state.

It's likely the topic will come up too in this week's meeting between President Donald Trump and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, which will include another sensitive issue for Israel's security – the possible sale to Saudi Arabia of stealth fighter jets of the F-35 type, which could significantly erode Israel's qualitative edge in the region.

In Washington, they're trying to tie all these moves together, including normalization between Saudi Arabia and Israel (which will involve additional countries). But it seems there's room for concern given the gap between Trump's ambitious vision and the reality on the ground, including in Gaza where Hamas still holds sway.

Over the weekend, The New York Times reported that Trump's envoy, Steve Witkoff, is set to meet again with the head of Hamas's political arm, Khalil al-Haya. The two met in Sharm el-Sheikh before the signing of the hostage return and war ceasefire deal, and it turns out Washington maintains a hotline with the organization it committed to dismantling.

Into this diplomatic-security focus also spills the reality in Judea and Samaria. In recent weeks, there has been a sharp rise in the number of violence incidents by Jewish extremists against Palestinians, some of which included harm to IDF forces as well. In the defense establishment, they explain the increase with the olive harvest season, but they warn that "we're a step away from a Duma 2," referring to the tragic Jewish terrorism that killed several family members in a Palestinian village several years ago.

These warnings were voiced in several situation assessments, and even passed on to the political echelon including the possible implications – from an outbreak of a broad wave of violence in Judea and Samaria, and up to a collapse of the Gaza ceasefire and broad clashes with the Muslim world.

Meanwhile, the political leadership maintains silence. The prime minister and the defense minister, who excel at commenting on every matter and issue, say not a word on this explosive topic, which also gets coverage in the international media and statements from foreign statesmen. The motives for their silence are clear – the fear of alienating the political base – but its meaning is a signal to the rioters that they have backing from the country's leadership to continue their actions.

This leadership cowardice, which contradicts the clear interest of the state, is a direct continuation of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Katz's conduct on the exemption from the Haredi conscription law issue being advanced apace, and to a slew of additional matters – the judicial legislation, the legislation against the media, the intense focus on a pardon for Netanyahu – in all of which the public interest is pushed aside. Don Corleone, seated as godfather, already pointed out that everything is personal: In Israel 2025, everything is personal, and also political.

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Ofir understands the Saudis perhaps better than any other Israeli. She has facilitated numerous achievements, including bringing Israeli teams to Saudi Arabia's Dakar Rally in 2021, brokering various deals between Israeli and Saudi companies, and becoming the first Israeli to lecture at a public Saudi conference in September 2023, when normalization appeared imminent.

Here is another assessment: Within the coming year, likely before Israel's elections, substantial rapprochement between Israel and Saudi Arabia will occur – perhaps not full Abraham Accords membership, but at minimum a significant political-economic development. A senior US diplomat estimates and assures in conversation with Israel Hayom, "This isn't a matter of gambling [on it happening], it's geopolitics and economic interests – what should have happened long ago will occur shortly."

What drives Saudi interest? Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman's Vision 2030 fulfillment integrates closely with business, technological, and security relationships with Israel. The vision incorporates technological development and advancement in which Israel already participates in areas including cyber defense, fintech, and additional sectors.

Furthermore, bin Salman, who favors mega-projects involving enormous monetary figures, strongly identifies with President Donald Trump's mega deal, the grand Middle East plan, and intends to integrate thoroughly into what should transpire here. The project focuses extensively on shortening commercial routes from the East, Indo-China to Europe, and potentially oil and gas pipelines en route. Regarding security, MBS seeks an agreement constituting a defense alliance with the US and through it with Israel, protecting his nation from Iran and its proxies, including the Houthis.

The security dimension was demonstrated conversely through Saudi assistance to Israel during the June war with Iran. As we revealed in our Israel Hayom report, Saudi military helicopters intercepted Iranian drones en route to Israel.

This represents exactly what Iran and its proxies, including Hamas, attempt to prevent. An intelligence-exposed document from Hamas leadership revealed this was one of Hamas' declared objectives in launching the October 7 massacre.

Among Hamas' (and Iran's) declared war objectives was torpedoing Saudi Arabia's Abraham Accords entry and normalization with Israel. This objective was essentially achieved while a Democratic administration unable to handle the situation's complexity.

Long and complicated, yet possible

With Donald Trump's re-entry as the Abraham Accords' architect into the White House, this possibility returned to consideration, though the road remains lengthy and complex. Recently, the American president reiterated hearing willingness and desire from senior Saudis to join the Abraham Accords. Trump characteristically adds, correctly, that Saudi entry will pave the way for additional Arab and Muslim nations.

Throughout 2023, direct contacts occurred between Saudi Arabia and Israel, including conversations between Prime Minister Netanyahu and Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. In September, contacts reached near maturation, and Netanyahu's UN General Assembly speech discussing the vision for the developing Middle East and building alliances was broadcast initially on Saudi television.

The war delayed the process, although beneath the surface contacts have been maintained and continue at multiple levels. The Saudis expressed shock at the massacre while, consistent with Middle Eastern Arab society sentiment, sharpened discourse toward Israel during the war, and their political process demands intensified. Trump's plan addresses this and removes obstacles to progress in this direction.

"The United Arab Emirates is Israel's genuine Arab friend, demonstrated during the most difficult time, wartime," a senior Israeli official maintaining contact with the Gulf country for many years tells us.

The official recalls that the sole international companies that continued flights to Israel throughout the war were Emirati ones, and the UAE's sharp condemnation of the October 7 massacre and Hamas generally. The UAE, alongside Saudi Arabia, maintain a firm position against Hamas, arguing that Gaza rehabilitation is impossible while it exists. Nevertheless, they finance numerous aid operations to Gazans, effectively since the war's beginning.

The Emiratis leveraged positive connections in Israel to introduce aid into displaced persons camps, establishing clinics and field hospitals. Now they constitute the dominant state in establishing humanitarian spaces in IDF-controlled territories, including constructing clinic buildings, schools, and electricity, water, and sewage infrastructure. They initiated and funded establishing a water pipeline from the Egyptian side to southern Strip residents.

Like the Saudis, they also perceive the promising business horizon in a peaceful Middle East recovering from wars, the enormous commercial potential for their ports on routes from the East to Europe, and the tremendous advantages of cooperation with Israel. For instance, the Dubai diamond exchange, established merely twenty years ago, became the world's largest with Israeli assistance.

The security dimension against the Iranian and Houthi threat also matters, and the war's end will bring genuine expansion of weapons and military technology agreements with Israel.

An important aspect involving both countries is the Palestinian de-radicalization process. In both nations, such processes occurred in educational systems, media, and cultural and political discourse. Educational programs from both are already implemented in temporary Strip schools, at minimum in IDF-controlled territories.

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This describes the individual sometimes dubbed "rabbi to kings." Schneier's persona has been linked for years with Arab and Muslim state leaders worldwide, from Saudi Arabia's monarch to Azerbaijan's president, from Qatar's emir to the United Arab Emirates' ruler. In an exclusive Israel Hayom interview, Schneier discusses diplomacy and pragmatism through the lens of faith and stated that for him the real prize is not political, but spiritual.

"I'm the 18th generation rabbi in my family," he begins. "I've always wanted to be a rabbi – and to appreciate what it means to be a rabbi."
Schneier received ordination in 1983 by Rabbi Joseph Soloveitchik, yet his calling extends beyond the synagogue and community he founded in the Hamptons, New York. "In my office… one wall has photos with kings and presidents, but the other side overlooks the synagogue. That's what gives me a sense of purpose and fulfillment."

"In my family, you have to make two contributions – both congregationally, spiritually, and also from the social-action point of view," he continues, and consequently, in 1989 he founded the Foundation for Ethnic Understanding, to restore the historic alliance between African Americans and Jews forged during the civil rights movement in the United States. "Martin Luther King comprehended that whoever struggles for his own rights can only do so if he also battles for others' rights. King was a great champion of Israel… He had zero tolerance for antisemitism."

After two decades leading it, he decided to pursue a new direction, "I thought that the great challenge of my generation would be to find the path to narrow the divide between 16 million Jews and 1.8 billion Muslims. And that's what sent me off on my global journey."

Schneier recounts how Muslim world doors opened before him. "My great patron was the late King of Saudi Arabia, King Abdullah… he introduced me to the King of Bahrain, who introduced me to the Emir of Qatar, who introduced me to the ruler of the UAE, who introduced me to [Azerbaijani leader] Aliyev — and then Kazakhstan… Even i24NEWS today said, 'this is the one who planted all the seeds for the Abraham Accords.'"

"I say everywhere – in Riyadh, Doha, Baku, Ankara – anti-Zionism is antisemitism. Israel is not some political 77-year-old aspiration; it's at the very core of our religion." He adds, "How can you be a Jew and not be a Zionist? Why would you bifurcate? … I am, in this work, a watchdog when it comes to Israel." The leaders, according to him, value his consistency.  "One of these leaders said to me, 'Presidents and heads of state, ambassadors — they come and go, and you're always there. We all need a rabbi.'"

Beyond his community position in the Hamptons, he was appointed special advisor by the King of Bahrain to the King Hamad Global Centre for Peaceful Coexistence based in Manama, and in 2022 served as interfaith consultant to the World Cup organization in Qatar, whose reputation in Israel naturally transformed completely following the war.

"The Qataris always come through for me… I served as interfaith advisor to the World Cup. I had three conditions: 15,000 Israelis, direct flights between Doha and Tel Aviv, and kosher food," he states, "I brought two rabbis from Turkey...  check, check, check [referring to all three conditions being met]." Qatar itself naturally leveraged the treatment of Israelis to bolster its image, while preserving relations with Israel's adversaries in the Middle East.

He portrays his warm relationship with Aliyev, Azerbaijan's president, whom he calls "like family for me. There's nothing Aliyev wouldn't do for Israel." He recalled telling one Arab leader that if he wanted to normalize relations with Israel, he should simply follow what Azerbaijan does.

With Turkey, Schneier was involved in the thawing of relations between President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and President Isaac Herzog in 2021. "The Turkish ambassador to Washington called Erdoğan from my office… I said it would be a wonderful opportunity for President Erdogan to call President Herzog – which he did. And by March 2022 we had the famous reconciliation meeting in Ankara." Schneier adds that "Erdogan was a big disappointment to me because of his absolute hatred for Netanyahu... Erdogan loves Herzog. Loves him."

He characterizes Hamas as "a perversion of Islam," saying that the war in Gaza "is a war against evil, not a war of religion." According to him, there are 12 Muslim countries that support or express sympathy for Israel. Muslim leaders support Israel's right to defend itself.

Schneier believes the agreement to release the hostages and ceasefire signals a regional transformation. "If Hamas doesn't behave... not only will they have to deal with the Israelis, they'll have to deal with the Americans — and good luck to them." He notes that is an unprecedented opportunity. If Gaza is demilitarized and administered by an Arab consortium and provided economic hope, everything can be transformed.

Regarding the Abraham Accords, Schneier enumerated Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Indonesia, Pakistan, Oman, Syria and Lebanon, as countries that may normalize relations with Israel in the near future. However, he indicated that "There's going to be very little movement in the Arab world until… Israelis recognize that everyone wants to see a Palestinian state – even if only symbolic."

Schneier participated in the "Peace to Prosperity" conference in Bahrain in 2019, and is convinced that Jared Kushner was correct, that money and hope can alter perception. He recalls Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman's words, "MBS said to me, 'Rabbi, you probably think I want to normalize relations with Israel because of Iran. That's the second reason. The first is Vision 2030 – the economic transformation of the kingdom that I cannot accomplish without Israel.'"

Schneier divides the region into two blocs, "You have the Saudi bloc – Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, UAE, even Qatar – and you have the Iranian bloc… Why doesn't anyone recognize that blessing?"

He expresses concern about the situation in New York and the weakening of Jewish influence in the city, and warns against Zohran Mamdani's rise, He [Mamdani] will finesse every issue – police, education, even prostitution – except one: Israel. He won't even recognize Israel as a democratic Jewish state."

At the conversation's conclusion, he sends a warm message to Israelis, "For American Jews, Israelis are a great source of inspiration. We enjoy the security and the strength we have in the Diaspora only because of the State of Israel… It has restored the honor and the dignity of the Jewish people… There's never been a better time to be Jewish than today."

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A senior diplomatic source from one of the Gulf states said, defining the issue of the deal to end the war in Gaza and from it the framework for a comprehensive regional arrangement. Behind the scenes, feverish contacts are taking place these days with Israel and other parties, with efforts focused on achieving a goal very important to Trump – an agreement on a ceasefire before the end of his visit to the region.

Israeli officials have received strong signals that if a ceasefire materializes, the פresident may meet with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. The ceasefire dominated discussions between Netanyahu and United States Special Envoy to the Middle East Steve Witkoff on Tuesday, and remained the central focus for the Israeli delegation in Doha.

The fundamental proposal has been available for months, but Trump's election victory and his decision to make the Gulf his first presidential trip destination accelerated it into an extensive series of contacts and draft exchanges.

The initiative originated from Israel's strongest Gulf ally, the United Arab Emirates, led by Mohammed bin Zayed and his brother, Foreign Minister Abdullah. Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman added his considerable influence, with his Foreign Minister Faisal bin Farhan presenting the comprehensive framework in Washington during his visit approximately a month ago. The involvement of these two nations proves crucial as they generally align with most Israeli requirements, unlike Qatar and Egypt.

During meetings between President Trump's team and bin Salman's delegation, they further discussed the plan. The saudi Foreign minister stated, "We agreed on the necessity to end the war and release the hostages" – broad language indicating agreement with the overall framework.

Israeli officials have received strong signals that if a ceasefire materializes, the פresident may meet with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. The ceasefire dominated discussions between Netanyahu and United States Special Envoy to the Middle East Steve Witkoff on Tuesday, and remained the central focus for the Israeli delegation in Doha.

The details, according to information obtained by Israel Hayom from Arab and American sources, exist in several versions with varying formulations, but share identical core principles:

1. An immediate ceasefire will begin based on the Witkoff plan, with half the hostages released within days, launching negotiations for a complete end to the war.
2. Hamas will release all Israeli hostages during negotiations, including remains of the deceased, while Israel will release Palestinian prisoners following the established formula. Humanitarian supplies and aid to Gaza residents will resume.
3. Israel will fully terminate military operations in Gaza and, following a transition period with security guarantees implemented, will withdraw completely to the border.
4. Hamas will surrender all weapons – from rockets to small arms – to an Arab entity. Senior military leaders from Hamas, Palestinian Islamic Jihad, and other resistance organizations must leave Gaza.
5. Temporary housing camps will be established during reconstruction, with provisions for leaving Gaza, prioritizing medical evacuations for ill and wounded residents.
6. Gaza reconstruction will commence immediately upon declaring the war's end, administered by an Arab-American committee taking control of the Strip. This committee will include the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Jordan, the United States, and European representation. Palestinians will have representation through civilian experts, engineers, management and economic professionals.
7. Under this framework, the Palestinian Authority would give its endorsement and later join reconstruction management after implementing substantial reforms. This management process would continue for approximately ten years. PA participation depends on structural reforms designed to improve operational efficiency and reduce corruption.
8. The security issue – maintaining order and preventing renewed attacks against Israel – will follow gradual implementation beginning with international, Arab, and Palestinian forces assuming responsibility for areas outside Israeli control, alongside Hamas disarmament. The framework doesn't exclude the possibility that individuals who served in Hamas police functions could eventually participate in Palestinian police forces.

Within these reforms, Emirati officials insisted the Palestinian education system undergo meaningful transformation and eliminate anti-Israel incitement. A comparable process occurred in Saudi Arabia's education system, with both Gulf nations overseeing this transformation.

From Israel's perspective, securing a better arrangement seems improbable, yet it contradicts positions held by Netanyahu's government factions, including within Likud, who advocate for Israeli security control over Gaza with eventual Israeli settlement reestablishment. The security perimeter issue remains unresolved. Israel will struggle to accept short-term withdrawal and will demand long-term control over strategically dominant areas, particularly the northern containment zone. Additionally, substantial political elements oppose Palestinian Authority involvement in Gaza reconstruction management and governance.

Video: Trump being welcomed in Qatar on May 14, 2025 / Credit: Reuters

Meanwhile, Hamas has rejected the two fundamental conditions – disarmament and exile – prompting UAE and Saudi leaders to appeal to Trump for pressure on Hamas' patron, Qatar, to moderate the organization's leadership position toward finding a resolution formula. The presumed elimination of Mohammed Sinwar in Khan Younis, if confirmed, should assist this persuasion effort.

The Americans are conducting direct talks with Hamas despite Israeli objections, though these communications might produce a breakthrough. Hamas claims American officials agreed to their future participation in Palestinian leadership. Washington denied this assertion, but one American source remarked that "ultimately, Palestinians will choose their leaders" – a concerning statement considering the 2006 election results when Hamas defeated Fatah.

A critical juncture awaits. Gulf states and the US recognize Netanyahu's internal cabinet challenges and offer the significant future incentive – normalization with additional countries led by Saudi Arabia, which would signal the way, followed by Syria, Lebanon, and other Arab and Muslim nations. "This is the move that will lead to the Nobel," the diplomatic source noted. However, this process depends on Palestinian issue progress.

Saudi Arabia has toughened its position regarding normalization with Israel and it is now demanding a framework of time-limited talks concluding with Palestinian statehood. Various interpretations exist here too, particularly regarding the "state" definition and its establishment process, which according to one version would progress gradually, advancing alongside Palestinian Authority reforms.

Within the American administration, some advocate the "Trump Plan" from 2020, which proposes establishing a Palestinian state through gradual implementation on 70 % of West Bank territory while recognizing Israeli sovereignty over an additional 30%. This approach aims to entice the Israeli right with the sovereignty recognition. The right was divided previously – within the Yesha Council, some welcomed while others opposed it before the plan was ultimately shelved.

The Americans are conducting direct talks with Hamas despite Israeli objections, though these communications might produce a breakthrough. Hamas claims American officials agreed to their future participation in Palestinian leadership. Washington denied this assertion, but one American source remarked that "ultimately, Palestinians will choose their leaders" – a concerning statement considering the 2006 election results when Hamas defeated Fatah.

Saudi Arabia and most Arab nations reject this approach, adhering instead to the 2002 "Saudi Plan" for a Palestinian state within 1967 borders with mutually agreed boundary adjustments – in exchange for complete normalization. Nevertheless, the Trump administration appears determined to implement the comprehensive arrangement including extensive economic components, applying its full influence. Following recent actions taken without Israeli participation or contrary to Israeli requests, Trump might again attempt to impose an arrangement after consultation and coordination efforts.

Video: Trump being welcomed in Qatar on May 14, 2025 / Credit: Reuters

For  Netanyahu, this represents a fundamental crossroads. Should he embrace such an arrangement, he would likely lose his hawkish right-wing support base and trigger elections, though he would receive backing from opposition elements at least until elections occur.

He might reasonably respond only to the first stage while attempting to separate the Gaza issue from the broader initiative. Former National Security Council head Meir Ben-Shabbat, a Netanyahu confidant, articulated this well, saying, "Israel must rely solely on itself and avoid entering processes difficult to exit. Peace agreements and Saudi normalization represent extremely important objectives for Israel, but not at any cost. Israel must achieve this from a position of strength, after eliminating the Gaza threat, resolving civilian nuclear issues, and maintaining cautious policy regarding Palestinian matters."

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