What is this "snapback" mechanism? It's a mechanism inserted into the 2015 nuclear deal, allowing members to reimpose Security Council sanctions placed on Iran between 2006 and 2010. The mechanism operates through the Security Council, but permanent committee members cannot block it with a veto – essentially leaving Iran exposed, without the possibility of diplomatic cover from China or Russia. Since the US withdrew from the agreement, only France, Germany, or Britain can activate it. But the timeline is short: the ability to do so expires in October.

Netanyahu, as recalled, addressed Iranians in a Persian video message, promising Israel would help solve the severe water shortage in the country once Iran is "free" from the current government.

Pezeshkian responded to the criticism on X network and defended his approach: "Speaking openly about problems means respect for the people's consciousness, who are the true owners of the country. Solving problems begins with recognition, not hiding. We came to build, not hide things; we speak with the people honestly, not with alarm sirens."

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Israel's requests to coordinate expectations with the supportive administration have been rejected outright not just once but several times, and the Republican Party has made it clear that this is an agreement to which Israel is not a party. This morning, it appears these concerns may materialize with reports indicating the US is closer than ever to a deal that might not address Israel's security needs. Trump is determined to return from his visit to the Gulf states with a major diplomatic announcement, and Israeli officials worry that an agreement with Iran could be that prize.

The options available to Israel are not good. On one hand, an agreement could provide Iran protection from continued attacks while preserving its nuclear achievements, with Israel expected to respect any US-signed agreement and not embarrass the American president. On the other hand – attacking Iran alone would be diplomatically dangerous and would not achieve complete results regarding Iran's nuclear progress or sufficiently set it back.

Israel demanded a significant part

There are disagreements with the US, not necessarily in rhetoric, where the American president has actually clarified his aspirations within the framework of an agreement, but rather in Israel's demand to be a more significant part of the process. These requests, as mentioned, were flatly rejected. "We are very close to a deal with Iran," Trump said today, adding that US demands on nuclear weapons have been met to a "large extent." What does this mean?

The fine print in the agreement is what worries Israel, alongside the American president's tendency to pursue quick agreements without addressing the implications for the entire Middle East, the balance between good and bad, etc. When Qatar, with its tendencies to support terrorism, is the deal's host, it's no wonder Jerusalem hasn't been sleeping well for a week.

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British Prime Minister Keir Starmer and US President Joe Biden have voiced alarm over the possibility of Russia sharing nuclear expertise with Iran in exchange for ballistic missiles used against Ukraine. The issue was a key topic during their summit in Washington DC on Friday, as reported by The Guardian.

The leaders acknowledged the tightening military cooperation between Russia and Iran at a time when Tehran is reportedly advancing its uranium enrichment program. British sources indicated that concerns were raised about Iran's potential trade for nuclear technology, highlighting a deepening alliance between the two nations.

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken had previously warned of this development during a visit to London last week. "Russia is sharing technology that Iran seeks – this is a two-way street – including on nuclear issues as well as some space information," Blinken stated, accusing both countries of engaging in destabilizing activities.

Britain, France, and Germany jointly cautioned last week that Iran's stockpile of highly enriched uranium had "continued to grow significantly, without any credible civilian justification." The three nations reported that Iran had accumulated four "significant quantities" that could each be used to produce a nuclear bomb.

The extent of Tehran's technical capability to construct a nuclear weapon remains unclear. However, collaboration with experienced Russian specialists could potentially accelerate the process, although Iran denies any intention to build nuclear weapons.

The 2015 nuclear deal between Iran and Western nations, which aimed to halt Iran's nuclear weapons program in exchange for sanctions relief, was abandoned in 2018 by then-US President Donald Trump. Iran subsequently breached agreed limits on enriched uranium stockpiles.

Western concerns about Iran's nuclear capabilities have contributed to heightened tensions in the Middle East, already strained by the ongoing war in Gaza. Iran and its proxy in Lebanon, Hezbollah, support Hamas, making Tehran's nuclear development a direct threat to Israel.

The growing alliance between Russia and Iran has been evident in their military cooperation. Iran has supplied Shahed drones to Russia for use in Ukraine and recently launched a missile and drone attack against Israel, which was largely thwarted with US and UK assistance.

During their summit, Starmer and Biden also discussed the potential use of long-range Anglo-French Storm Shadow missiles by Ukraine against targets within Russia. The decision would require US approval due to American-made components in the missiles.

The leaders and their teams engaged in a comprehensive discussion about strategy, covering topics including the war in Ukraine, the Middle East crisis, Iran, and the emerging competition with China.

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In a recent statement, Amir-Ali Hajizadeh, commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Aerospace Division, has made startling claims about diplomatic efforts surrounding Iran's April 13 attack on Israel, according to Iran International. Hajizadeh asserts that Israel, through Turkish intermediaries, requested Iran to keep its retaliatory strike "light."

"The Americans wrote a letter, and the Zionist regime relayed a message through Turkey, urging us to keep the retaliatory strike restrained. They pleaded for a measured response," Hajizadeh stated on Thursday.

The IRGC commander further alleged that foreign ministers from France and other European nations contacted Iran's foreign ministry, initially expressing concerns but ultimately acknowledging the operation's legitimacy. Hajizadeh quoted their reaction: "Their primary contention afterward was that 'the operation was meant to be punitive; if this is mild, what would a full-scale military operation entail?'"

According to Hajizadeh, neighboring Arab countries also intervened, proposing a ceasefire in Gaza to dissuade Iran from attacking Israel. These diplomatic efforts reportedly occurred in the lead-up to what Iran termed "Operation True Promise," a massive air strike involving over 350 drones and missiles on April 13. The Israeli military claims to have intercepted 99% of the projectiles with assistance from a US-led coalition.

Iran's attack was in response to what it alleges was an Israeli strike on its consulate in Damascus, resulting in the death of seven IRGC officers, including a high-ranking commander.

This is not the first time Hajizadeh has made such claims, but it marks the first mention of Turkey as an intermediary. Last week, he stated, "Following the Supreme Leader's address, the Zionists recognized Iran's resolute stance. Consequently, they appealed through neighboring countries, urging us to respond with restraint."

Hajizadeh also asserted that the aerial assault on Israel utilized only a fraction of Iran's military capabilities. "We had to use a great number of missiles and drones to get through Israel's Iron Dome; we used 20% of our military capability in the operation," he claimed last month.

In a further allegation, Hajizadeh suggested that Israel offered concessions in Gaza to preempt Iranian retaliation. "Israel conveyed messages through Egypt's foreign minister, indicating readiness to negotiate in the Gaza conflict to avoid Iranian reprisal," he claimed.

However, these claims, reported by Iran's state media, appear questionable given Israel's continued escalation of operations in Rafah, Hamas's southern stronghold. This ongoing offensive persists despite warnings from numerous countries, including the US and European nations. Israel maintains its primary objectives of eliminating Hamas and securing the release of the remaining 120 hostages held in Gaza.

As tensions in the region remain high, the veracity of these claims and their potential impact on future diplomatic relations remain subjects of intense scrutiny and debate. Recent reports indicate increased military readiness on Israel's part – the Israeli Air Force has been conducting extensive training exercises simulating long-range strikes on distant targets, potentially in preparation for action against Iran, amid concerns that Tehran is exploiting Israel's focus on Gaza and Lebanon to accelerate its nuclear program. This development, coupled with Israel's ongoing operations in Rafah and its objectives of eliminating Hamas and securing hostages, further underscores the volatile nature of the region's geopolitical landscape.

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Iran's presidential election has ended in a runoff, with voter turnout plummeting to a record-low 40%, signaling growing disillusionment with the Islamic Republic's political system. As the country prepares for a second round of voting, Western hopes for a reformist victory appear increasingly illusory while the regime continues to consolidate power both domestically and regionally.

The inconclusive first round marks another blow to the regime's legitimacy. Voter participation fell to just 40%, down from 48% in 2021 and 73% in 2017. No candidate secured a majority, forcing a runoff.

The Iranian public's disenchantment is palpable. All candidates answer to the de facto ruler, with three hailing from the reform-averse conservative faction. Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's political theater, which truly dictates foreign and security policies, has lost its veneer of authenticity. Social media even joked that Khamenei cast his vote for his son Mojtaba, his presumed successor.

Yet despite waning enthusiasm, the turnout suggests that while the republic's internal legitimacy falters, the government's grip remains firm. A significant base still accepts the status quo. This is bolstered by the Revolutionary Guards, 150,000 to 200,000 strong, alongside the Basij, a civilian auxiliary force millions strong, tasked with quashing dissent.

Western powers, however, cling to electoral hopes. Many policymakers root for reformist candidate Masoud Pezeshkian, seen as potentially amenable to a new nuclear deal. The US and EU persist in seeking "peace in our time" with a regime known for its brutality and corruption. Western diplomats might tout a postponed nuclear threat as a victory, even as Tehran advances its conventional military capabilities.

Pezeshkian could play the perfect role in an Iranian charm offensive. The physician-turned-politician advocates for Western engagement to boost Iran's economy – music to Washington and Brussels' ears. For Khamenei, presenting a palatable political figure is strategically convenient, especially after April's brazen attack on Israel. A veneer of moderation could soothe both international tensions and domestic unrest.

This development underscores the election's limited impact. The July 5 runoff won't determine Iran's true leader. In reality, the victor will simply become Khamenei's highest-ranking official, as the Supreme Leader retains ultimate control.

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According to confidential reports and analysis from nuclear experts cited by The Washington Post, Iran is undertaking a substantial expansion at its heavily fortified Fordow nuclear facility. This development could potentially triple Fordow's capacity to produce enriched uranium, providing Tehran with the means to rapidly assemble nuclear weapons if its leadership decides to pursue that path.

International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) inspectors have verified new construction activities at the Fordow enrichment plant, just days after Iran formally notified the nuclear watchdog about plans to significantly upgrade the underground site located in a mountainous region of north-central Iran.

The Post's reporting, based on a technical evaluation, indicates that the expansion at Fordow alone could enable Iran to stockpile enough nuclear fuel for several bombs every month. While smaller than Iran's main enrichment facility near Natanz, Fordow's underground location makes it virtually impervious to airstrikes, heightening its strategic significance.

"Iran would gain the capability for a rapid breakout at this deeply buried site, an ability it has not possessed before," David Albright, a nuclear weapons expert and president of the Institute for Science and International Security, a Washington-based non-profit, told The Post.

Iran has also disclosed intentions to boost production at its primary enrichment plant near the city of Natanz. These moves are poised to exacerbate tensions with Western nations and fuel concerns that Tehran is swiftly positioning itself as a nuclear threshold state, capable of producing nuclear weapons on short notice if its rulers give the order.

"Iran aims to keep expanding its nuclear program in ways that lack any credible peaceful justification," State Department spokesman Matthew Miller stated. "These planned actions further undermine Iran's claims to the contrary. If Iran proceeds with these plans, we will respond accordingly."

According to US intelligence officials, Iran already possesses around 300 pounds of highly enriched uranium that could potentially be further processed into weapons-grade fuel for nuclear bombs within weeks or even days. While Iran maintains it has no intention of developing nuclear weapons, leaders of its nuclear energy program have begun publicly asserting that their scientists now command all the necessary components and expertise to build nuclear bombs swiftly if instructed to do so.

The expansion blueprint calls for installing nearly 1,400 new centrifuges, machines used for uranium enrichment, at Fordow within four weeks, according to two European diplomats with knowledge of the confidential IAEA reports. This new equipment, Iranian-made and interconnected in eight cascades, would significantly outperform the machines currently deployed.  

"It is entirely credible," Albright told The Post, referring to Iran's expansion plans. "We have no insight into their centrifuge activities. We'll only fully grasp their capability after they've installed these machines."

Although the 2015 nuclear deal technically remains in force, Iran has systematically violated its key provisions since the Trump administration withdrew from the agreement in 2018. According to Robert Litwak, a senior vice president at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, Tehran's efforts to portray itself as a nuclear threshold power provide Iran with a degree of strategic ambiguity that serves its interests.

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Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Sunday that he opposes any interim agreement reportedly being negotiated between the United States and Iran over its nuclear program.

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Netanyahu spoke after reports in Israeli media said understandings are being reached between Washington and Tehran that would seek to partially hold back Iran's nuclear program in exchange for some sanctions relief. The reports could not be independently confirmed and the US has publicly denied any such deal.

Video: Video: Roy Avraham/GPO, sound: Ben Peretz/GPO

Netanyahu said Israel had informed the US that it opposed even a partial agreement with Iran.

"We told our American friends that even the limited understandings are unacceptable to us," the prime minister said during a visit to the Israel Aerospace Industries on Sunday, just hours after hours after an Israel Hayom report on his relative "defeating silence" on the emerging understandings.

Israeli officials believe some understandings have already been reached limiting enrichment and that some funds have already been unfrozen. The officials spoke on condition of anonymity because they were discussing a confidential diplomatic assessment.

Last week, Israeli media reported that under the emerging understanding Iran would limit its uranium enrichment to 60% in exchange for sanctions relief. The site also said the sides were discussing reciprocal prisoner releases.

State Department spokesman Matthew Miller said last week "there is no deal," adding that the reports were untrue.

Reports also said that Netanyahu had revealed details of the agreement at a recent parliamentary committee meeting. The US and Israel share intelligence and a prime focus of the countries' interactions is Iran and its nuclear program.

Netanyahu vehemently opposed the 2015 deal between Iran and world powers brokered by the Obama administration that sought to rein in Iran's nuclear program. He was a major supporter of President Donald Trump's 2018 decision to withdraw from the deal, which left it in shambles.

Israel considers a nuclear Iran as a major threat – citing its calls for Israel's destruction and its support for anti-Israel terror groups across the region – and says it does not rule out military action to prevent Iran from making a nuclear weapon.

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Israel could find acceptable an understanding between its arch-foe Iran and the United States if it includes rigorous supervision of Tehran's nuclear program, a senior lawmaker said in comments aired on Saturday.

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According to Iranian and Western officials, Israel's main ally Washington is holding talks with Iran to sketch out steps that could include limiting the Iranian nuclear program.

These steps would be cast as an "understanding" rather than an agreement requiring review by the US Congress, such as the 2015 accord abandoned in 2018 by then-President Donald Trump.

"It's not a wide-scope agreement, it's more like a small agreement, a memorandum of understanding, an MOU, and I think Israel can live with this if there is real supervision," Yuli Edelstein, head of the Israeli parliament's Foreign Affairs and Defence Committee, told media.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's office declined to comment on whether fellow Likud party member Edelstein's remarks reflected the views of the premier.

On Tuesday, before briefing the Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee, Netanyahu said in televised remarks, "Our position is clear. No agreement with Iran would obligate Israel, which will do everything required to defend itself.

"Our opposition to the deal – a return to the original deal – is working. But there are still differences in outlook, and we do not hide these, regarding smaller agreements too. We have been stating our position clearly, both in closed and open sessions," Netanyahu said.

Uranium enrichment

A core element of the possible understanding which remains unclear is the degree to which Iran would agree to rein in its uranium enrichment. Israeli officials in Netanyahu's circle have given potentially differing views on the issue this month.

Netanyahu's national security adviser, Tzachi Hanegbi, said Israel didn't see as much "damage" in any new understanding as there was in the 2015 deal, but it was "poised" for any Iranian shift to more than 60% fissile purity.

"That would already be a clear acknowledgment that the uranium enrichment is for weapons needs," Hanegbi told Israel Hayom Friday, referring to the 90% fissile purity required for a bomb.

But last week, Strategic Affairs Minister Ron Dermer, who accompanied Hanegbi to Washington talks about Iran, voiced misgivings about any "freeze" of current enrichment levels.

"It means that you reconcile with a higher level of enrichment in Iran. And we thought that was a bad idea then, and we think it's a bad idea today," he told the AJC Global Forum in Tel Aviv.

Having failed to revive the 2015 deal, US President Joe Biden's administration hopes to restore some limits on Iran to keep it from getting a nuclear weapon that could threaten Israel and trigger a regional arms race.

The US government has dismissed reports it is seeking an interim deal with Tehran, which denies seeking the bomb.

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The United States has been negotiating "quietly" with Iran to limit the regime's nuclear program, The New York Times reported Thursday based on Israeli, Iranian, and US sources.

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Washington seeks to reach an informal, unwritten agreement to reduce the risk of a military confrontation with Tehran, which has been stockpiling highly enriched uranium close to bomb-grade purity, according to the Times.

Video: Reuters

Under that agreement, which Israeli officials called "imminent," Iran will reportedly not be allowed to enrich uranium above 60% and will refrain from attacks on Americans. In return, the US will release Iranian funds, swap prisoners and pledge to avoid tightening sanctions as well as to not seize oil-bearing foreign tankers, not seek new punitive resolutions at the United Nations or the International Atomic Energy Agency against Iran for its nuclear activity.

The talks, held indirectly, reflect a resumption of diplomacy between the US and Iran after the withdrawal of then-US President Donald Trump from the 2015 nuclear deal, officially known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, in 2018.

Israel has warned Iran against producing bomb-worthy uranium. Defense Minister Yoav Gallant said in May, "If Iran enriches to the 90% weapons-grade, it would be a great error and the price would be heavy."

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Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and US Secretary of State Antony Blinken spoke about Iran "at length" on Thursday.

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Netanyahu "reiterated his consistent position that returning to the nuclear agreement with Iran would not stop the Iranian nuclear program and that no arrangement with Iran will obligate Israel, which will do everything to defend itself," according to a readout from the prime minister's office.

The leader also expressed appreciation for the US-Israeli military and intelligence cooperation, "which is at an all-time peak," and for recent "sincere talks" between the two countries.

Netanyahu "suggested advancing Israeli-American cooperation on artificial intelligence," and the two discussed "the challenges and opportunities in the region," per the readout.

US State Department spokesman Matthew Miller later stated that the two leaders "discussed areas of mutual interest, including expanding and deepening Israel's integration into the Middle East through normalization with countries in the region."

Blinken "discussed the need to uphold the commitments made at regional meetings in Aqaba and Sharm el-Sheikh to avoid measures that undermine the prospects for a two-state solution," Miller added. "He also discussed broader regional challenges, such as the threat posed by Iran, and underscored the United States' ironclad commitment to Israel's security and our 75-year-old partnership."

Reprinted with permission from JNS.org.

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