Iran's oil exports have plummeted from around 2.5 million barrels per day to just 150,000 barrels, according to figures obtained by Israel Hayom. The dramatic plunge follows the outbreak of war with Israel and threatens to choke off one of the Islamic Republic's most vital revenue streams.

A US Treasury Department source familiar with the data said the figures are based on intelligence from Kpler, a company specializing in global trade monitoring. Most of the limited oil that is still being exported is being laundered in the Indian Ocean before arriving at refineries in China. The steep decline has already cost Iran over $1 billion in revenue since the war began on June 13. If the trend continues, the regime stands to lose roughly $5 billion per month.

Several factors are driving the downturn. Domestic demand at Iranian refineries has surged due to critical shortages of fuel for industry, transportation and energy production. Tehran is also concerned about possible strikes on its export terminals and is intentionally curbing exports to manipulate global prices while blaming Israel for the resulting hikes, hoping the move will generate American pressure for a new agreement. At the same time, Iran has been removing large volumes of oil from storage facilities in the Gulf, relocating them further afield to shield them from attack.

Oil has become a key issue in US President Donald Trump's deliberations over a potential military strike on Iran. The central fear in Washington is that Tehran might act on its threats to block the Strait of Hormuz or target oil fields and infrastructure in the Gulf, which would severely impact US allies in the region. Chief among them, Saudi Arabia has conveyed a clear message to Washington: diplomacy is preferable, and a conflict that endangers oil exports, which account for around 30% of global supply, must be avoided.

Despite Iran's efforts, the global price of oil has only risen modestly. This is largely thanks to increased output by other producers, especially Saudi Arabia, which has moved quickly to fill the gap.

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Here's something strange – despite all the drama in the Middle East, oil prices haven't crossed the $90 per barrel threshold.

Strange, isn't it? Logically, when the region supplying about a third of global oil is in turmoil, prices should surge. Yet here we are in early 2025, with oil prices lazily hovering around $65-70 per barrel. Behind this phenomenon stands a triangle of forces reshaping the energy market in a completely different way than we've known before.

At the first vertex is Saudi Arabia. The kingdom that ruled the global oil market with an iron hand for decades finds itself in a complex position. The economic data isn't good – the budget deficit reached 3% of GDP in 2024 (about $30.8 billion), following a 1.2% deficit in 2023 (and after an exceptional budget surplus of 2.5% in 2022 – a year of particularly high oil prices). Expectations for the next decade are that the deficit will remain around the same level, about 3% annually.

The chronic deficit isn't accidental. Saudi Arabia is in the midst of Mohammed bin Salman's ambitious Vision 2030, designed to reduce the kingdom's dependence on oil. But the many projects included in the vision require high oil prices to finance themselves. All the innovative cities and real estate ventures require funding in the hundreds of billions of dollars. According to International Monetary Fund estimates, the Saudis need to sell their oil at a price of $80-88 per barrel to balance their budget – some estimates are even higher, up to $96.2 per barrel. The Saudis would be happy to raise the price. But they have a problem – the redhead in the White House.

At the second vertex stands the United States under Donald Trump's leadership. American policy is clear – "America First" in energy, with aspirations for global dominance in the field. But a deeper look reveals an interesting paradox. On one hand, Trump declares support for the American energy industry, but on the other hand, he consistently works to lower oil prices – for example by pressuring OPEC to increase production.

Energy Secretary Chris Wright has articulated the approach well – "More energy at lower prices." However, the American industry, particularly shale producers, needs prices higher than $60 per barrel to operate profitably. Below $50, production is expected to shrink sharply. The administration is also taking steps that further challenge the industry – 25% tariffs on steel imports, which is an essential raw material for drilling, and cuts in federal personnel responsible for approving new drilling.

At the third, most surprising vertex, stands Iran. Despite international sanctions, Iran continues to export oil, mainly to China. It does so at a significant discount of $10-15 per barrel relative to market prices. This is not an ideal compromise for the Iranians – to balance their budget they need a price of $124 per barrel, an imaginary level in the current reality. Nevertheless, this arrangement allows Iran to remain relevant in the market and channel revenue into the state budget.

Around the Triangle

The implication of this triangle is the creation of a "cage" for oil prices – they can fall or rise within a relatively limited range, unless there is a dramatic change – for example, an Iranian attack against Saudi Arabia, or a collapse of the shale oil industry in the US. Trump's pressure to lower prices, along with the cheaper Iranian option and a slowdown in Chinese demand growth, offset the geopolitical pressures to raise prices.

On the periphery of the triangle is China, the world's largest energy consumer. China is suffering from an economic slowdown, leading to more moderate energy demand, and lower demand means lower prices. China also leverages its position to pressure its suppliers – it buys Iranian oil at a discount, negotiates with the Saudis, and responds to American tariffs by imposing counter-tariffs on American natural gas.

What does this mean for Israel? As an energy importer that also has gas export potential, Israel is affected by both trends. On one hand, low energy prices hurt the profitability of Israeli gas fields and the viability of export agreements. On the other hand, industry and consumers benefit from energy at a low price. Perhaps it's time for the Israeli government to also invest in a blue-and-white energy industry by removing regulatory barriers?

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Let me share a tidbit in Persian – "An eqtesad ahmaqaneh ast." It's their way of saying, "It's the economy, stupid" – that game-changing phrase from Bill Clinton's 1992 presidential victory. Today, as we face off against Tehran, this economic weapon might just be the silver bullet we need – potentially powerful enough to bring down the Iranian regime with its toxic blend of Islamic extremism and state-sponsored terrorism.

Look, let's be realistic about Lebanon. We're heading toward another 1701-style arrangement, buttressed by international forces and a light Israeli footprint. And while eliminating Hamas Gaza leader Yahya Sinwar has shortened our path to some sort of arrangement in Gaza, let's not kid ourselves – any deal will have an expiration date. Why? Because Iran's fingerprints are all over virtually every terror group in the Middle East. Taking down Tehran's regime isn't just Israel's strategic imperative – it's crucial for the entire free world. And the path to victory? It runs straight through Iran's economic jugular.

I've spent years watching one particular economic indicator that tells us everything about Israel's security landscape and where we're headed. It's Iran's oil exports – a number that instantly telegraphs whether regional terror forces are about to bulk up or slim down. When global sanctions hit Iran's nuclear program, Hezbollah's allowance took a massive hit in the latter half of the previous decade. Then came the nuclear deal, unfrozen assets, and lighter sanctions – suddenly Tehran was raking in 50 billion USD annually from oil. No surprise that from 2016 onward, we saw Iranian proxies everywhere flexing their muscles: Hezbollah, Iraqi militias, Yemen's Houthis, and Palestinian Islamist groups all grew fat on Tehran's petrodollars.

The landscape shifted dramatically after Trump torpedoed the nuclear deal and cranked up sanctions. Iran struggled to bankroll its military ambitions and proxy networks. But when the Democrats took Washington in 2020, the sanctions pressure eased considerably. This year, Iran's oil sales hit the stratosphere, pumping in around 50 billion USD, with China playing the role of eager – and nearly exclusive – customer, happily scooping up discounted Iranian crude. We at Israel Hayom covered this extensively, but last month brought a stunning reversal.

The US Treasury dropped a bombshell – fresh sanctions targeting Iran's oil sector, but with a twist. This time they went after maritime shipping companies that help Iran play hide-and-seek with its oil exports. The scheme was clever – mid-sea transfers from sanctioned Iranian tankers to "legitimate" vessels operated by these international firms, essentially laundering Tehran's black gold.

When these new sanctions hit maritime transporters – including Russian and Far East operators – the impact was immediate and dramatic. The numbers tell the story: Iranian exports to China plummeted from 4 billion USD in August to a mere 1.5 billion USD in September, with October projected to sink below the billion-dollar mark. Do the math - that's a 40 billion USD annual hit to Iran's economy. The implications are seismic. If this squeeze continues, Tehran might not just have to cut allowances to its terror proxies – it could face outright economic collapse.

Well-placed sources in both Jerusalem and Washington confirm this economic offensive was a carefully choreographed move. During high-level discussions, American officials laid out the data for their Israeli counterparts, making a compelling case that striking oil facilities would be overkill. Gulf states, with Saudi Arabia leading the chorus, amplified this message, pleading with Washington to keep Iranian oil infrastructure off the target list – they're terrified of Iranian retaliation against their own facilities. Jerusalem, by all accounts, saw the logic.

But here's where it gets messy. While tightening the economic noose, Washington simultaneously floated trial balloons about reviving nuclear deal talks. It's a resurrection of the Obama-era fantasy that diplomatic overtures could somehow pull Iran into the Western orbit and derail its nuclear ambitions. The timing is baffling, given Iran's deepening embrace of Russia and China. A US diplomat told Israel Hayom this is just one card in a larger deck of options, emphasizing it would be discarded if other strategies prove more effective. The Gulf states are watching this diplomatic dance with mounting anxiety. According to Al-Hurra, the American Arabic network, these countries are fully behind IDF operations in Lebanon, Iran, and Syria, and support a muscular Israeli response to Iranian aggression – just keep the oil facilities out of it.

Looming over everything is the upcoming US presidential election. Every move, every response – especially from Jerusalem – gets filtered through this political prism. With Obama-doctrine adherents holding key positions in the Democratic foreign policy establishment, many in both the Gulf and Israel are hungry for change. Yet the Republican alternative brings his own baggage – notably, his puzzling non-response to the Iranian-Houthi assault on Saudi oil facilities back in 2019.

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A woman's viral video showing her drinking an entire bottle of castor oil for skincare benefits sparked a debate, with some users expressing shock and curiosity, while others expected topical application as a moisturizer.

The video garnered over 900K views. Some families in South Africa have a tradition of consuming castor oil during school holidays, masking its taste with fruit flavors, despite children's apprehension.

Experts warn against ingesting castor oil without medical guidance, as it can cause cramps, bloating, diarrhea, nausea, dizziness, and other harmful side effects, including laxative abuse and electrolyte imbalances.

While castor oil is considered a potent laxative and can be used as a moisturizer, for scalp health, and hair growth, medical consultation is recommended before using it for skincare or detoxification purposes.

Sources: The Indian Express, Bona Magazine, Yen News, The Ogemaw Country Herald, Jacaranda FM

This article was written in collaboration with Generative AI news company Alchemiq.

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The Biden administration's approval this week of the biggest oil drilling project in Alaska in decades promises to widen a rift among Alaska natives, with some saying that oil money can't counter the damages caused by climate change and others defending the project as economically vital.

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Two lawsuits filed almost immediately by environmentalists and one Alaska native group are likely to exacerbate tensions that have built up over years of debate about ConocoPhillips Alaska's Willow project.

Many communities on Alaska's North Slope celebrated the project's approval, citing new jobs and the influx of money that will help support schools, other public services, and infrastructure investments in their isolated villages. Just a few decades ago, many villages had no running water, said Doreen Leavitt, director of natural resources for the Inupiat Community of the Arctic Slope. Housing shortages continue to be a problem, with multiple generations often living together, she said.

"We still have a long ways to go. We don't want to go backward," Leavitt said.

She said 50 years of oil production on the petroleum-rich North Slope has shown that development can coexist with wildlife and the traditional, subsistence way of life.

But some Alaska Natives blasted the decision to greenlight the project, and they are supported by environmental groups challenging the approval in federal court.

The acrimony toward the project was underscored in a letter dated earlier this month written by three leaders in the Nuiqsut community, who described their remote village as "ground zero for industrialization of the Arctic." They addressed the letter to Interior Secretary Deb Haaland, a member of New Mexico's Laguna Pueblo and the first Native American to lead a Cabinet

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China reported the first imports of Iranian crude oil in a year despite ongoing sanctions by the United States government, according to data released by customs on Thursday.

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China brought in 260,312 tons of Iranian crude oil in December, according to data from the General Administration of Chinese Customs, which last recorded Iranian oil inflows in December 2020 at 520,000 tons.

It was not immediately clear which company brought in the latest cargo, which is equal to the amount of oil that would fit onto one very large crude carrier tanker, and which terminal it was discharged into.

Unofficially, China's imports of Iranian oil had held above 500,000 barrels per day on average between August and October, as buyers judged that getting crude at cheap prices outweighed the risks of busting US sanctions, Reuters reported in November. To avoid the sanctions, Iranian crude has been exported to China marked as oil from Oman, the United Arab Emirates and Malaysia, squeezing out supplies from Brazil and West Africa, traders have said.

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Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman al-Saud also told a mining conference in Saudi Arabia, the world's biggest exporter of crude oil, that the kingdom planned to use its vast uranium resources to develop a nuclear power program.

The minister said he was still worried about the energy transition and that it needed to be thought through carefully.

"It may end up being a leap into the future, unfortunately, an unknown future," he said. "We should not forfeit energy security for the sake of a publicity stunt. That transition needs to be (a) well-thought-of transition."

Saudi Arabia said more than a decade ago that it was considering developing its own nuclear power program but it has yet to build any nuclear plants. Prince Abdulaziz said that Saudi Arabia would be manufacturing and developing uranium.

"Let me be very specific about it, we do have a huge amount of uranium resources that we would like to exploit and we will be doing it in the most transparent way, we will be bringing in partners," the minister said.

He said Saudi Arabia would be publishing its energy strategy soon and that it was well-placed to become the cheapest producer of so-called green hydrogen.

"Our business model would enable us to do that ... we are very open to every opportunity that comes our way and every technology," Prince Abdulaziz said.

Saudi Arabia Mining Co. (Ma'aden), the Gulf's largest miner, would also be creating a subsidiary for investments abroad.

"We have the foresight to put together through our champion in minerals, Ma'aden, a subsidiary company that will be developed very soon to venture abroad with partners," he said.

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A clandestine oil deal that would have turned a scuba divers' paradise into a waypoint for Emirati oil headed for Western markets has effectively been blocked, Environmental Protection Minister Tamar Zandberg said Thursday.

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Zandberg told Army Radio that following a Justice Ministry opinion that her office had the authority to limit the activities of the government-owned corporation signed onto the deal, "the agreement cannot be realized."

"The deal exists on paper but there is no way to realize it," she said. "They won't bring in more tankers than what the current permit allows. That is, the agreement cannot be realized."

The secret deal would have significantly increased the number of oil tankers docking and unloading in the Israeli resort city of Eilat. It was struck last year between the Europe-Asia Pipeline Company, the Israeli government-owned corporation, and MED-RED Land Bridge, a joint Israeli-Emirati venture, following the historic agreement establishing formal diplomatic ties between Israel and the United Arab Emirates.

Senior officials in former Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's government – including  his former energy, foreign and environment ministers – said they didn't know about the deal until it was announced last year after the accords were signed at the White House.

Initially hailed as a move that could cement fledgling diplomatic ties and further Israel's energy ambitions, the new Israeli government sworn in this year ordered a review. That followed an outcry from environmental groups, who warned the increased oil tanker traffic would threaten to eradicate the Gulf of Eilat's coral reefs. The decision upset investors and risked a diplomatic spat with Israel's Gulf allies.

During the review, the Environmental Protection Ministry froze the company's planned expansion of operations, limiting the number of tankers allowed into the Gulf of Eilat and effectively blocking the deal.

Israeli environmental groups had asked the country's Supreme Court to cancel the agreement and halt oil shipments, citing the corporation's questionable safety record and the risk posed by parking supertankers alongside Eilat's fragile coral ecosystems. The groups pulled their lawsuit earlier this month following the Justice Ministry's decision to side with the Environmental Protection Ministry.

The pipeline company, known as EAPC, was founded in the 1960s to bring Iranian oil to Israel when the countries had friendly relations. Its operations are shrouded in secrecy, ostensibly for security reasons.

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Iran's Revolutionary Guards Corps staged a major military exercise across the country's south on Monday amid heightened tensions over Tehran's nuclear program, state TV reported.

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The IRGC aerospace division, ground troops and naval forces joined in the five-day drill, the report said, with maritime forces set to maneuver in the strategic Strait of Hormuz, the narrow gateway for 20% of the world's traded oil.

The exercise comes days after talks to revive Tehran's tattered nuclear deal with world powers broke up in Vienna. Iran has accelerated its nuclear advances as negotiations to return to the accord struggle to make headway, alarming Israel and other regional rivals. Israel has repeatedly threatened unilateral action against Iran's nuclear program.

Gen. Gholamali Rashid, a top IRGC commander, vowed a harsh response to any Israeli military action against Iran.

Iranian forces will launch "a crushing attack on all bases, centers, paths and space used to carry out the aggression without delay," the semi-official Mehr news agency quoted him as saying.

"Any threat to Iran's nuclear and military bases by the Zionist regime is not possible without the green light support of the United States," he said.

Earlier on Monday, residents in Bushehr, some 700 kilometers (440 miles) south of Iran's capital, Tehran, reported seeing a light in the sky and hearing a loud explosion near the Bushehr nuclear power plant.

It was the second time this month that sudden anti-aircraft firing erupted the middle of the night near an Iranian nuclear facility, which Iranian forces hours later described as drill for its surface-to-air missile defense system.

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