A new New York Times/Siena College poll has found Former President Donald Trump narrowly leading Vice President Kamala Harris among likely voters nationwide, raising questions about the durability of Harris's recent surge in popularity.

The poll shows Trump ahead by one percentage point, with 48 percent support compared to Harris's 47 percent. This marks the first time Trump has led in a major nonpartisan national survey in approximately a month. The poll surveyed 1,695 voters nationwide from September 3 to 6, with a margin of error of plus or minus 2.8 percentage points.

The New York Times cautions that the results should be viewed skeptically, given the lack of confirmation from other recent polls. However, several factors could explain a potential decline in Harris's support. The vice president had been riding high on a wave of positive coverage following President Joe Biden's withdrawal from the race in July and throughout the Democratic convention in August. It is possible that in the past two uneventful weeks, her numbers dropped.

Highest-rated pollster in the country and a large sample size, too. Fortunately for Harris she has the debate this week and none of this will matter if she has a good night.https://t.co/X77LYVdtVq

— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) September 8, 2024

 The timing of the poll may also contribute to its unique findings. There have been few high-quality surveys conducted since the Democratic convention, with Labor Day weekend and the upcoming debate potentially affecting polling schedules.

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Amid the ongoing turbulence in Israel surrounding judicial reform, there are growing calls – mostly from the Opposition and liberal influencers and journalists – to have the Left enter Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's government in what is described as a way to save Israel from chaos through a unity government. 

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These calls have been mainly directed at State Party Chairman Benny Gantz, who entered the Netanyahu government during the coronavirus pandemic. A new Israel Hayom poll that tried to gauge the scope of support for such a measure shows that a significant sector of the public would be supportive of such a development. 

According to the poll, conducted by the Maagar Mochot research institute headed by Professor Yitzhak Katz, some 35% of the public prefer a national unity government, and 27% would like to see a Center-Left government in power. Only 29% prefer to have a fully right-wing government as is the case today. 

Video: Anti-reform protests in Jerusalem. Credit: Yoni Rikner

Gantz's dilemma is two-pronged: On the one hand, he and his left-wing camp have been sounding the alarm that the country is headed to a calamity, but his constituency is gradually warming to the idea of entering the very government he is warning against. Returning to a position of power is what every Opposition member seeks, and Gantz would be able to claim that saved Israel from the judicial reform and the radicals that had been frightening his base. 

On the other hand, Gantz has been scarred by his previous unity deal with Netanyahu and the mutual distrust is sky-high. It is very likely that if he were to enter the government, it would not be able to function properly. Netanyahu may also find a way to topple it and then enter a reelection campaign as the head of a transition government immune from a no-confidence vote, thus further eroding Gantz's support as a viable challenger to the prime minister. 

Joining Netanyahu could result in Gantz's popularity plummeting just as he is thriving in the polls. Moreover, if the election ends with a hung parliament, Netanyahu will likely refuse to enter a rotating premiership agreement that has him serve second and would prefer to stay as the head of a transition government, forcing Gantz to decide whether to stay under Netanyahu or go through another campaign. 

According to the poll, the public gives the government the worst grades in tackling the cost of living. Some 79% said its performance on this matter was "negative," 13% said "neutral" and only 8% gave it a "positive" mark. This was also very much prevalent among its supporters: Some 66% of Likud voters and 67% of United Torah Judaism voters gave the government a "negative" grade.

When asked about its handling of polarization in Israeli society, some 75% gave the government a negative grade, 15% "neutral" and only 10% gave it a "positive" grade. Among voters of Coalition parties, an average of 50% gave it a "negative" grade. 

Some 64% said that the government's handling of the judicial reform crisis was "negative" while 13% remained neutral and 23% gave it positive marks. When drilling down the data according to party affiliation, some 44%  of Likud voters, 64% of Religious Zionist Party and Otzma Yehudit voters, and 71% of Shas voters gave the government positive marks on this issue, perhaps because of the reconciliation talks under the auspices of President Isaac Herzog or because it shifted gears in the legislation by passing it piecemeal and also adding more messaging. 

When asked to grade the performance of senior figures, Gantz and IDF Chief of Staff Herzi Halevi were ranked highest (40% and 45% favorable, respectively), with only 37% and 25% (respectively) giving them an unfavorable grade. 

The worst approval ratings were given to National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir (65%), Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich (64%), Netanyahu (59%), and Yesh Atid leader Yair Lapid (52%). Attorney General Gali Baharav-Miara had 45% disapproved of her conduct, compared with 32% who approved of her performance. 

When it comes to trust in state institutions, the IDF remains at the top, with 73% of people saying they have a high degree of trust in it. Some 60% said they have low trust in the government, while 57% said the same of the Knesset, and 47% of the Israel Police

Some 40% said they have low trust in the Supreme Court, while 35% said they have high trust in it. The court's worst rating is among Coalition voters, with 79% of the Religious Zionist Party voters saying they have low trust in it, as did 74% of United Torah Judaism, 73% of Shas voters, and 54% of Likud voters. Among Opposition voters, the opposite trend emerged: Some 74% of Labor voters said they have high trust in it, as well as 68% of Yesh Atid voters and 64% of State Party voters.

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A new survey conducted among young Israelis shows that 42% believe their generation is "unlucky" and that their future is less bright than their parents. The survey also shows that 52@ believe there is discrimination in Israel based on ethnicity and place of residence. Another statistic shows that 54% say they would emigrate if they could, while 62% feel alone in dealing with their future. 

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The survey, conducted by ERI and carried out by the Rashi Foundation and Gandyr Foundation using a representative sample of Israelis between ages 18-34, tried to gauge sentiment among young Israelis amid what is considered to be a period of heightened political polarization over the proposed judicial reform. 

Video: Israelis protest judicial reform (Credit: Barak Brinker)

The report asked them about their approach to various life decisions, what motivates them, and their overall views on various issues as well as the trust they have in the state institutions and their degree of social involvement. 

The most troubling issue involves the erosion in the sense of belonging to the state in recent months: While the 2022 Democracy Index showed that 66% of Israelis between 18-24 (as well as 65% of those between 25-44) would prefer to stay in Israel even if they had the opportunity to move to a different country, in the new survey this figure stood only at 54%. 

Among Haredim, 91% say they would prefer to stay in Israel, while among non-Haredi Jews, that figure drops to 44%. Among Israeli Arabs, that figure stands at 32%. 

When asked to say what their three overarching objectives are among 12 that were presented to them, some 47% said "economic well-being and a high lifestyle", some 45% said chose "building a family" and 40% said "economic security that will grant me livelihood and enough money for old age." Only 5.8% chose "working toward political and social change." 

Some 42% of young Israelis believe they are part of an "unlucky" generation and think their lives will not be as good as their parents' future was. Among non-Haredi Jews, 47% say their generation is unlucky, with only 33% saying they believe their future is brighter than their parents. Among young Arab respondents, some 34% said they are part of an unlucky generation, but 52% said their future is brighter than their parents'. 

Some 52% of Israelis believe that their chances of realizing their professional goals are determined firstly by their place of residence, their ethnic background and their family's financial means. Only 48% say that their personal aptitude, knowledge and skills are the most important. 

Some 62% said that the state has not provided them with a safety net and has left them to their own devices in pursuing their future goals. This stood at 69% for women, 55% of men, 49% of Arabs, and 43% of Haredim. Almost half of respondents said they felt they could not trust the state to give them what they need to meet the challenges of the future, and women and non-Haredi Jews comprise more than half of this group. 

According to Rashi Foundation, the "results of the survey show that the disparity between the haves and have-nots has only increased and that if we are to grant a real equal opportunity to everyone, we must have widespread engagement to effect real change when it comes to trust in institutions and we must bolster infrastructure and incentivize various remedies, such as professional training for the job market and more." 

According to The Gandyr Foundation, the survey shows that "most young Israelis think they are alone in facing the big challenges in the greater complex reality; more than 60% of them feel the state does not provide them with a safety net and that they have to take care of themselves by themselves. The study is a wake-up call for all those who engage in youth outreach." 

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Around 50% of Americans hold an "unfavorable opinion" of United States President Joe Biden, a survey conducted by Quinnipiac University revealed.

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The numbers mark a sharp increase from May's results, in which just 42% of people surveyed reported an unfavorable opinion.

"A slight majority of Americans, 52%, say the country is worse off today than it was a year ago," the poll's website detailed.

Additionally, the survey showed strong popularity among Republicans for former US President Donald Trump.

Around 78% of Republicans polled indicated that they would like to see a 2024 Trump presidential bid, an increase from May's count of 66 %.

"While a majority of Americans say, 'been there, done that' about Trump, and half feel he has damaged the underpinnings of democracy, support for the former president within the GOP has grown," Quinnipiac University Polling Analyst Tim Malloy explained.

Respondents also listed what they felt are the direst issues facing America – the economy, COVID, and immigration.

Broken down by party affiliation, the top three issues of concern to Republicans surveyed are immigration, the economy, and the federal debt.

Urgent issues for Democrats include COVID, health care, and climate change.

This article was first published by i24NEWS.

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If elections were held today, the Likud party would win 30 mandates, Yesh Atid would receive 21, and the Blue and White party would finish with 10, according to a poll conducted for Channel 12 News and published on Sunday.

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According to the poll, Yair Lapid and his Yesh Atid party would gain four mandates from the 17 the party won in the last election. As a reminder, President Reuven Rivlin tasked Lapid with forming the next government after Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu failed to do so.

The Yamina party, according to the poll, projects to lose altitude from its current seven mandates and come perilously close to the electoral threshold with only five mandates. The remaining poll results were as follows: Shas (9), United Torah Judaism (7), Religious Zionism (7), Labor (6), Israel Beytenu (6), New Hope (6), Yamina (5), Joint Arab List (5), Meretz (4), Ra'am (4).

The poll was conducted by the Midgam Polling Institute and included a sample size of 550 Israel aged 18 and above, with a sampling error of +-3.1%.

A Channel 13 News poll, meanwhile, indicated that the Likud would lose ground if elections were held today.

According to the poll, Likud would receive just 29 mandates, while Benny Gantz's Blue and White party would increase its number of Knesset seats to 11. Yamina leader Naftali Bennett would also pick up one mandate from his current seven. Gideon Sa'ar's New Hope party would lose one seat from its current six, the poll showed.

The full Channel 13 poll results were as follows: Likud (29), Yesh Atid (22), Blue and White (11), Yamina (8), Joint Arab List (8), Otzmah Yehudit (8), Labor (7),  Shas (7), United Torah Judaism (6), Israel Beytenu (5), New Hope (5), Meretz (4), Ra'am (0).

The poll was conducted for Channel 13 by Prof. Camil Fuchs and has a sampling error of +-3.8%.

Both polls were the first to be published in the wake of Operation Guardian of the Walls and countrywide riots in mixed Jewish-Arab cities.

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The polarization between different sectors in Israel is greater than ever, a recent poll by the Aluma equality advocacy group and the ERI research institute found Wednesday.

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According to the poll, only 53% of secular Israelis are willing to live alongside Haredim.

The ultra-Orthodox community has been severely criticized for its flouting of public health directives during the coronavirus pandemic, which has resulted in skyrocketing morbidity in the community.

Antagonism is so strong at this point that 69% of secular Israelis reported that they would rather have Arab neighbors than Haredi ones, and 62% said they would rather live next to Bedouins than the ultra-Orthodox.

Among Masorti (conservative) Israelis, 78% said they would have no objection to having Haredi neighbors, 54% wouldn't mind living alongside Arabs, and 54% are willing to live next door to Bedouins.

Of religious Israelis, 96% said they would have no problem living alongside ultra-Orthodox neighbors, 32% would not object to living next to Arabs, and 28% are willing to live next door to Bedouins.

Among ultra-Orthodox respondants, only 12% reported that they would have no objections against living alongside Arabs, and 15% said they would oppose having Bedouins neighbors.

The poll also analyzed each sector's willingness to connect with these sectors on social media.

Seventy-seven percent of secular Israelis said that they wouldn't be against connecting with Haredim on social media, 82% reported the same in relation to Arabs, and 79% in relation to Bedouins.

Eighty-five percent of Masorti Israelis are willing to connect with Haredim online, 62% said the same in relation to Arabs, 63% with regard to Bedouins.

Ninety-four percent of religious Israelis would not object to connecting with the ultra-Orthodox online, 50% reported the same willingness in relation to Arabs, and 53% about Bedouins.

Some 20% of Haredim said that they would be willing to connect with Arabs on social media, 41% reported the same with regard to Bedouins.

The survey included 1268 Israelis, most of whom answered the survey online, and a small number that responded to questions over the phone.

"There's no doubt that the greatest tension exists between the ultra-Orthodox and secular Israelis," said the author of the study, Dr. Gali Sambira.

"The conclusion that emerges from the poll is that liberals would like to be considered as such, but in reality, they are only liberal towards the sectors that are convenient for them. For example, they are liberal towards Arabs, but not towards Haredim, while traditional Israelis are liberal towards religious Israelis and the ultra-Orthodox. Each group considers itself to be liberal.

"The poll analyzed, among other things, whether the coronavirus increased the polarization. The answer is a whopping 'yes.' Seventy-four percent of Haredim reported that the situation has become worse. We feel it in real life as well – if I cough on the bus, I feel like a hired assassin. If a Haredi gets on the bus, he immediately feels like an enemy to the people.

"At first look, the data makes it seem like the Israeli society is crumbling. But in my opinion, the data shows that it is possible to coexist side-by-side with the understanding that we are different. We must act now to allow groups that feel "uncomfortable" to feel better when interacting with other sectors. Israeli society is extremely diverse; that has many advantages and disadvantages. The wisdom is to find the way we can live in the same city, even if we live in different neighborhoods."

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The Likud will gain one or two mandates in the next election, according to new polls published on Tuesday, while Gideon Sa'ar's party, New Hope, saw a slight drop from previous polls.

A poll conducted by the Midgam polling institute on behalf of Channel 12 News showed the Likud with 29 mandates and New Hope with 18. Channel 13 News' poll, conducted by Professor Camil Fuchs, also showed Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in the lead with 28 mandates to 19 for New Hope. A poll conducted by Kantar Media for the Kan public broadcaster, meanwhile, showed Likud with 28 mandates and Sa'ar's party with 20.

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The polls also indicated a small gap between Yair Lapid's Yesh Atid-Telem faction and the Naftali Bennett-led Yamina party. According to Channel 12 News, Lapid will have 16 mandates to Bennett's 13. The Channel 13 News poll said the parties were even closer, with Yesh Atid-Telem receiving 16 and Yamina 14. The Kan poll, however, showed Yamina in the lead with 15 mandates to Lapid's 13.

The polls for Channel 12 and 13 both showed Benny Gantz's Blue and White party with a mere five mandates, while the Kan poll predicted he will finish with six.

The full poll results:

Channel 12 News projected as followed: Likud 29; New Hope 18; Yesh Atid-Telem 16; Yamina 13; Joint Arab List 11; Shas 8; United Torah Judaism 8; Yisrael Beytenu 7; Meretz 5; Blue and White 5; Labor 0; Gesher 0; Habayit Heyehudi 0

Channel 13 News noted as followed: Likud 28; New Hope 19; Yesh Atid-Telem 16; Yamina 14; Joint Arab List 11; Shas 7; United Torah Judaism 7; Meretz 7; Yisrael Beytenu 6; Blue and White 5; Labor 0; Gesher 0; Habayit Heyehudi 0

Kan 11 News predicted as followed: Likud 28; New Hope 20; Yamina 15; Yesh Atid-Telem 13; Joint Arab List 11; Shas 8; United Torah Judaism 7; Blue and White 6; Yisrael Beytenu 6; Meretz 6; Labor 0; Gesher 0; Habayit Heyehudi 0; Otzmah Yehudit 0

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The 2020 election campaign was announced on midnight, Wednesday, as the 22nd Knesset dissolved after neither Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu nor challenger Blue and White leader Benny Gantz were able to form a coalition.

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This will be the first time in Israel's history that a general election is held for the third time in the span of one year.

A poll commissioned by Israel Hayom found Thursday that were the elections held at this time, Likud would win 31 Knesset seats, placing it second to Blue and White's 37 mandates.

The Joint Arab List would secure 14 seats, followed by Yisrael Beytenu (8), the ultra-Orthodox Sephardi party Shas (8), the haredi Ashkenazi party United Torah Judaism (7), Labor-Gesher (6), New Right (5), and the Democratic Union (4).

The National Union, Habayit Hayehudi, and far-right Otzma Yehudit parties would fail to pass the 3.25% electoral threshold, which translates into four Knesset seats.

These results would give the right-wing bloc 51 Knesset seats to the Left's 47 – sans the support of Yisrael Beytenu and the Joint Arab List.

Should the Arab parties back Gantz, as they did following the Sept. 17 elections, it would give Blue and White the 61 seats necessary to form a government, effectively unseating Netanyahu.

The poll further examined potential voter turnout and found that only 59% of Israelis "definitely plan to vote." Some 23% said they were "highly likely" to vote, 3% said they were "inclined" to vote, and 15% of Israelis said they were "unlikely" to vote.

Still, 60% of Israelis said that the political logjam plaguing Israel since the general elections were called in April would not make them change their vote. About 27% said they were reconsidering the issue, and 13% said they plan to change who they vote for this time.

Asked who they believe is most suited for the role of prime minister, 42% said Netanyahu, 40% named Gantz – who has been steadily gnawing at Netanyahu's clear advantage in this area – and 18% said they had no opinion on the matter.

However, asked who they believe is most suited for the role of prime minister – Gantz or Netanyahu's Likud challenger MK Gideon Sa'ar – 36% preferred Blue and White's leader to Sa'ar, who was named by 31% of the respondents. In this scenario, 33% named other candidates or said they had no opinion on the matter.

The survey dealt Netanyahu another blow, as 43% of respondents said that he was to blame for the fact that Israel was going to the polls for the third consecutive time.

Some 30% said Lieberman was to blame, 5% said Gantz was at fault, and 3% named Blue and White co-founder Yesh Atid leader Yair Lapid as the culprit.

As for the day after the elections, the poll found that 30% of Israelis would like to see a national unity government comprising Likud and Blue and White instated, while 19% would like to see a unity government comprising the two major parties and the right-wing bloc. Some 20% said they prefer a narrow right-wing government, and 15% would like to see a narrow left-wing government installed.

The survey, conducted by the Maagar Mochot polling institute among 500 respondents comprising a representative sample of Israelis 18 and over. The statistical margin of error is 4.4 percentage points.

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The poll, conducted by the Maagar Mochot polling institute, shows that Likud under Netanyahu would garner 33 seats if a new Knesset election were called (up from its current 32), indicating that voters were unmoved by Attorney General Avichai Mendelblit's decision to indict Netanyahu in three corruption cases following years of investigations.

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Some 43% of respondents said that Netanyahu should step down because of the indictment, but 12% said he should only temporarily hand over responsibilities. Some 35% said he should be allowed to continue serving as prime minister.

Under Israeli law, a prime minister must resign only if he is convicted and only after the appeals process has been exhausted. However, court precedent stipulates that ministers must resign once they are indicted. It is unclear whether that precedent applies to Netanyahu.

The poll also shows that if Likud were to replace Netanyahu by his chief challenger within Likud, MK Gideon Sa'ar, this would actually result in Likud dropping to 28 seats, despite Sa'ar's claim that Netanyahu's departure would help the party.

In both cases, Likud would not be able to form a right-wing government because Yisrael Beytenu has refused to sit with the haredi parties.

According to the poll, some 88% of Likud voters would prefer that Netanyahu remain Likud chairman, with only 8% saying Sa'ar would be their preferred choice in a party leadership race.

Netanyahu still has an edge when it comes to which party leader is more fit to serve as prime minister. Some 45% of respondents said he was most qualified, compared with 39% who said Blue and White leader Benny Gantz.

The poll was carried out among 501 respondents comprising a representative sample of the adult population in Israel. The margin of error stands at 4.4 percentage points.

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After the center-left party Blue and White pulled ahead of the Likud last week for the first time in the current campaign, the party appears to be losing steam, while the Likud is gaining.

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This week's i24NEWS-Israel Hayom poll predicted 31 seats for the Likud, while its main rival on the Center-Left, Blue and White, was projected to drop to 30 seats.

Elsewhere on the Right, the poll projected eight seats each for Yamina (formerly the New Right) and Shas, and seven seats for United Torah Judaism.

While the poll showed that the far-right Otzma Yehudit would pass the minimum electoral threshold of 3.25%, the party would not win enough seats to lock in a right-wing coalition of 61 MKs or more. As of this week, the Right is projected to win 58 seats.

In the left-wing camp, while Blue and White dropped a seat, Labor-Gesher moved up to a projected six seats.

However, the poll predicted only four seats for the Democratic Union (Ehud Barak and Meretz), putting the party barely over the minimum electoral threshold. In total, this gives the left-wing camp a projected 51 seats.

Yisrael Beytenu under Avigdor Lieberman held steady in this week's poll at 11 seats, retaining its position as the party that could determine the makeup of the next government.

The Joint Arab List was also predicted to win 11 seats.

The Maagar Mohot Institute under Professor Yitzhak Katz polled a representative sample of 603 adult Israelis to compile this week's results. The poll has a margin of error of 4%.

Two significant political events took place between last week's poll and the current one that could explain the changes. The first was the sudden spike in hostilities on the northern border. It only lasted a day, but it might have been enough to reshuffle the priorities of some of the respondents.

The second event was Moshe Feiglin's Zehut party dropping out of the race. The absence of Feiglin helped bolster the Likud, but also Otzma Yehudit – which, according to this week's poll, will now pass the minimum electoral threshold, despite the Likud campaign that did its best to make that seem impossible.

When asked who they thought was best-qualified to serve as prime minister, 40% of respondents picked Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, compared to 23% who said they thought Blue and White leader Benny Gantz would be the best prime minister. Some 5% of respondents said Yamina leader Ayelet Shaked was the best candidate for prime minister, and 4% of respondents said they thought Labor leader Amir Peretz was the best pick.

Only 3% of respondents said they thought that Yair Lapid, Ehud Barak, or Avigdor Lieberman was best-suited to serve as prime minister.

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