Initial findings point to an ISIS connection, not Iran, which has been proven responsible for torching synagogues and Jewish businesses in the country. The distinction between streams of radical Islam does not diminish the threat: The Iranian model is sometimes replicated in other influence networks, both state and non-state, and in any case, lays the "fertilizer" for attacks on Jewish life.

In August, Australian intelligence concluded that Iran stood behind two attacks: the arson of a kosher delicatessen in Sydney and the torching of a synagogue in Melbourne. The investigation revealed that the Revolutionary Guards recruited local criminals for the "dirty work" – attacking Jewish institutions. In response, Australia expelled the Iranian ambassador, closed its embassy in Tehran, and declared the Revolutionary Guards a terrorist organization. This marked the first time Australia has expelled an ambassador since World War II.

Tehran also operates "soft power" mechanisms, which allow it and Hezbollah to expand their influence in countries with a significant Shiite minority, among these mechanisms: control over the appointment of imams in religious centers, academic institutions like Al-Mustafa University, cultural centers of the embassy, and the media activities of the Iranian Broadcasting Authority.

In Australia, the influence has manifested in trips to Lebanon and meetings with Hezbollah officials, and even in money transfers through Qard al-Hassan (Hezbollah's banking institution) – as revealed in the breach of the organization's systems.

The disregard for Iran and Hezbollah's "enabling infrastructure" in Australia created a sense of comfort to operate in the country without interference. Similar to the Iranian operational pattern of recruiting Australian criminals for "dirty work" on behalf of the Revolutionary Guards, there has been evidence in the past of connections between criminal elements and Shiite religious institutions, and figures from the Australian underworld were linked to a money laundering network that operated for Hezbollah's benefit.

As a result, Shiite religious centers became the leaders of anti-Israel demonstrations after October 7, waving terror flags without any interference. Iranian Ambassador Ahmad Sadeghi did not hesitate to praise Hassan Nasrallah, while the embassy simultaneously intensified surveillance and persecution of Iranian dissidents in the country.

The battle is only beginning

But Australia is just one example. Iran operates similar networks around the world: Quds Force planning an attack from Venezuela against the Israeli embassy in Mexico, recruiting Swedish teenagers to attack the embassy in Stockholm, and attempting to harm Israel-Thailand relations through pressure on Thai workers. In Britain, Iranian accounts were exposed, pushing for Scottish independence to weaken the kingdom from within. In Italy, Iranian elements used the cultural center in Tehran to track exiles, and in Germany, the government admitted that the Al-Mustafa University branch in Berlin became a spy center.

The "Israel-centric" view of the Iranian threat causes Israel to miss an opportunity. While Israel focuses on the Iranian power structure – the nuclear program and missiles – Iran enjoys broad freedom of action far from the Middle East. But these developments also create fertile ground for cooperation with countries facing the same negative Iranian influence, and sometimes they are not even aware of the danger.

Western countries are dealing with large-scale immigration, exposing them to various types of foreign influences. Exposing the way Iran uses the Shiite diaspora and the religious power it holds within it could serve as a model for dealing with other radicalization networks: from ISIS's online and partisan networks, through mosque unions controlled by other Middle Eastern states, to non-religious state influences.

In the past year, there has been some awakening. Alongside Australia's moves, Germany closed the Al-Mustafa branch in Berlin and expelled the imam at the "Blue Mosque" in Hamburg, who was accused of receiving direct instructions from the Supreme Leader's office. The "hysterical" response of the regime to any damage to these mechanisms indicates their importance – and also that the battle is only beginning. Whether Iran is responsible for the Sydney attack or not, history proves the need to fight that same "enabling infrastructure."

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Iran had functioned as one of Damascus's most essential supporters throughout the civil war that ignited in 2011 after the regime's brutal response to pro-democracy demonstrations, sending military advisers and Revolutionary Guards forces to Syria, AFP reported.

Revolutionary Guards units and regional allies – chiefly Hezbollah fighters from Lebanon, plus combatants from Iraq and Afghanistan – had occupied strategic locations and propped up Assad's regime, only to vanish as Islamist-led forces charged toward the capital, according to AFP.

Syrian military officers and troops operated under Revolutionary Guards command, whose influence grew during the conflict while Assad's authority weakened, AFP reported.

A former Syrian officer posted at a Guards security facility in Damascus said that on December 5, 2024, his Iranian commander ordered him to an operations center in Mazzeh district the next day to address an "important matter," according to AFP. The ex-officer, requesting anonymity over safety concerns, said his commander – identified as Hajj Abu Ibrahim – delivered a bombshell announcement to about 20 Syrian officers and soldiers assembled for the briefing, AFP reported.

"From today, there will be no more Iranian Revolutionary Guards in Syria. We're leaving," those present were informed, according to AFP. "It's all over. From today, we are no longer responsible for you."

They were instructed to destroy or burn classified documents and extract hard drives from computers, AFP reported. The declaration came as Islamist forces secured massive gains, yet it still caught Syrian soldiers by surprise, he said, according to AFP.

"We knew things hadn't been going well, but not to that extent." They received advance payment covering one month and departed for home, AFP reported.

Within two days, Islamist forces captured Damascus without fighting after Assad escaped to Russia, according to AFP. Two Syrian staff members at Iran's Damascus consulate, requesting anonymity for security purposes, also recounted a hurried Iranian departure, AFP reported. The consulate stood empty by December 5 evening as Iranian diplomats scrambled across the border into Beirut, they informed AFP.

Multiple Syrian employees "who held Iranian nationality left with them, accompanied by senior Revolutionary Guards officers," one former employee stated, according to AFP. At Jdeidet Yabus – Syria's primary Lebanese border crossing – taxi operators and former staff documented enormous congestion on December 5 and 6, with eight-hour delays to cross the frontier, AFP reported.

Both ex-consulate workers said Iranians instructed Syrian personnel to remain home and compensated them three months' wages, according to AFP.

The embassy, consulate and all Iranian security installations were abandoned by December 6 morning, they said, AFP reported.

Throughout the conflict, forces under Iranian authority concentrated in critical Damascus zones and suburbs, especially Sayyida Zeinab district – site of a significant Shiite Muslim shrine – and around Damascus airport, plus near Lebanese and Iraqi frontiers, according to AFP.

Sections of northern Aleppo and other provincial sites also functioned as major deployment zones for personnel and combatants, AFP reported.

At a location that formerly operated as a crucial Iranian military base south of Aleppo, Colonel Mohammad Dibo said when the city fell early in the rebel campaign, "Iran stopped fighting," according to AFP.

Iranian forces "had to withdraw suddenly after the quick collapse" of Assad's military, stated Dibo, who participated in the rebel offensive and currently serves in Syria's new armed forces, AFP reported. On severely damaged walls at the deserted base, an AFP journalist observed Iranian and Hezbollah slogans plus a mural showing a sword slicing through an Israeli flag, according to AFP.

Israel – Tehran's foe – had conducted hundreds of airstrikes on Syria during the war, primarily claiming it targeted Assad's forces and Iran-backed organizations, AFP reported. The anonymous former Syrian army officer said that on December 5, a high-ranking Iranian military official known as Hajj Jawad and several Iranian troops and officers were transported to Russia's Hmeimim base on the Mediterranean coast, then airlifted to Tehran, according to AFP.

At the deserted site near Aleppo, Dibo said following the city's collapse, "some 4,000 Iranian military personnel were evacuated via Russia's Hmeimim base" where they had sought refuge, AFP reported. Additional personnel escaped overland through Iraq or Lebanon, he stated, according to AFP.

The departure proved so hurried that "when we entered their bases" in Aleppo province, "we found passports and identity documents belonging to Iranian officers who didn't even have time to retrieve them."

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According to the official, Tehran faces only difficult choices because it risks a harsh Israeli counterattack and simply cannot absorb more military losses like those sustained during the 12-Day War. The official noted that despite this restraint, some voices within Iran still believe a response to Israel's actions is necessary, perhaps executed by the Houthis or through a terrorist attack targeting Jewish or Israeli interests in Europe or Latin America.

This cautious assessment stands in contrast to the combative statements coming from Tehran, even before the death of Hezbollah Chief of Staff Haytham 'Ali Tabataba'i, and earlier reports that Iran had largely replenished the surface-to-surface missile stockpile lost during Operation Rising Lion. For example, a report in The New York Times disclosed that Iran is enhancing its air defense network and planning for a massive launch capability of up to 2,000 simultaneous missiles should another conflict erupt. The Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps previously published a statement declaring, "The Axis of Resistance and Hezbollah have the right to respond at the appropriate time, and it will be a painful blow".

Esmaeil Baghaei, the Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman, stated that Israel's behavior is worsening regional security and will result in serious consequences. Though Iran is working to rebuild its air defense capabilities – which were nearly destroyed in the war – and reportedly received aid from China, Israeli estimates suggest this will not significantly challenge Israel's absolute control of Iranian airspace.

The critical decision regarding a Hezbollah response rests with the ayatollahs in Tehran, not Beirut. Hezbollah's standing has suffered significantly following the losses incurred during the pager operation and the elimination of its leadership, including Hassan Nasrallah, who ranks second only to Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

Iran's hesitation is driven by multiple factors : First, since Israel delivered severe blows to Hezbollah, the Houthis, and Iran itself, another conflict of that magnitude is unacceptable. Second, the international environment, marked by full US support and partial European support for Israel, eliminates the possibility of helpful diplomatic maneuvers. Third, Iran is experiencing a particularly dire economic and infrastructural crisis, characterized by rampant inflation, currency collapse, a severe fuel shortage, frequent power outages, and a water crisis. In fact, the severity of the water crisis led President Masoud Pezeshkian to propose evacuating Tehran and relocating to a temporary capital.

Tehran is currently in its sixth consecutive drought year and recorded its driest autumn of the century, reporting "zero drops of rain". After the first 55 days of the current water year, water reserves had hit a 60-year low.

Contacted via social media, S., a Tehran resident, described having running water for only a few hours each day, dangerously poor water quality causing widespread diseases and infections, and mineral water sold at exorbitant prices in stores and markets. The resident added that while authorities have discussed bringing in water tankers from the north, no substantial action has been taken.

Northern Iran is simultaneously battling a major ecological catastrophe – a fire that has been burning for weeks in the Hyrcanian Forests, a "World Heritage Site" and the world's oldest living ecosystem. Iranian forestry experts are placing blame on the government, alleging negligence and intentional, malicious damage to the forest lands. The fire has resulted in large clouds of smoke, ash, and soot, which are causing severe air pollution.

This compounding crisis has given rise to the idea of Iran's "quiet disintegration" as a functional state. Sogand Fakheri, an Iran Desk analyst at the Jerusalem Center for Security and Foreign Affairs, said that "quiet disintegration" is a concept frequently discussed in Iranian domestic media.

"However, it seems the disintegration is not quiet, the government is not functioning, and the repeated focus on war propaganda and the 12-Day War either ignores or at least belittles the situation in the country," she elaborated, adding, "The fires and the funds being wasted in the wrong places also hurt the citizens' standard of living and even put them in real danger." As economic, social, and environmental hardships continue to mount, internal reports of local distress and protests surface from Iran, but these are often suppressed from the wider public due to media censorship and restrictions. This raises the question of whether the institutional and social decay is happening "quietly" because it is not being fully expressed – or because parts of the system are struggling to recognize it in real-time.

Sagiv Asulin, a senior researcher at the JCFA and an Iran expert, accounted for the contrast between the aggressive rhetoric and Iran's domestic paralysis : "The Iranians are the world champions in word games, negotiation, and haggling in the Middle Eastern and global bazaar, so there is a big difference between what they say and what will materialize. They are willing to warm the atmosphere with belligerent statements, but in their current condition, they might play a game on the edge, but nothing beyond that, and therefore the answer to the question of whether they will initiate an actual attack – is almost certainly no".

Asulin confirmed that Iran is working hard to rebuild its air defense and missile stockpiles because missiles are the most effective weapons they have, especially since the nuclear project was severely damaged. The researcher added that Iran recognizes this as Israel's soft underbelly and plans to reinforce it for the next conflict.

Ultimately, both Asulin and the senior official agree that Iran intends to delay the next conflict for as long as possible to allow itself time to recover, wait for more favorable conditions, and improve its readiness.

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Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf delivered the keynote address at the Tehran rally, stating that the anniversary represents Iran's resolve to remain independent and oppose what he termed foreign power control. He declared the nation's independence "will not be sold for any concession," and the "Death to America" slogan signifies "rejection of hegemony, not hostility toward the American people."

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Following the increase in Iranian terror activity and the arrests of Sardar Ammar's infrastructure, law enforcement authorities in Australia and Germany took sharp policy steps against senior Iranian officials. Among the steps: the expulsion of the Iranian ambassador from Australia and his designation as an undesirable person, and the summoning of the Iranian ambassador in Germany for a reprimand. These unprecedented steps were intended to send a clear message of zero tolerance for terror activity.

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The president spoke extensively, declaring, "There is no water in the rivers, in the wells, and in the dams – the water crisis is more severe than ever. The crisis could shut down the country across all sectors." He enumerated a host of other problems, including shortages of electricity, cooking and heating gas, and rampant inflation that official sources now concede has long surpassed 50%. Pezeshkian stressed that Iran is out of options and must perform "difficult surgery on the body of the state."

In a stunning rebuke of the regime's core values, the Iranian president attacked the forced imposition of the hijab, arguing that values must be instilled through education, not coercion. In another extraordinary remark that sounded like capitulation, he asserted that Israel possesses vast intelligence on senior Iranian officials and key facilities. He added that should Iran attempt to rebuild its missile and nuclear programs, Israel would immediately bomb them, causing the entire investment to vanish into thin air.

To a Western observer, such statements might seem logical, even commendable, from a leader warning of collapse and detailing the impact of American sanctions which, he said, "have reduced Iranian revenues to a minimum and collapsed the economy, which cannot be restored in the short term." In revolutionary Iran, however, these are shocking words from the man who is nominally second only to the Supreme Leader, who dictates the agenda on military expansion, terror funding, and the nuclear program.

Although the president peppered his speech with assurances of his obedience to the Leader, the very act of exposing Iran's grave condition is an extraordinary event. In the Iran of Leader Ali Khamenei, it has been forbidden since the 1990s to complain about the state of affairs, even when everyone knows "the emperor has no clothes." Detailing the problems, as the president did, is simply not done.

It is important to remember this is not Pezeshkian's first such move; he has detailed Iran's challenges in past speeches. This time, however, was exceptional by any measure, provoking the fury of the Supreme Leader's messengers in the conservative media.

Immediately following the president's defeatist address, the Tasnim website, an outlet affiliated with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, attacked him. It insisted such statements undermine Iran's leverage in any future negotiations and harm the national interest by broadcasting weakness and confirming Israeli and US superiority. The daily Vatan-e Emrooz, another IRGC-linked paper, blared a massive headline calling the speech an "Own Goal!" Members of parliament joined the chorus, accusing him of weakening Iran's standing.

Video: PM Netanyahu speaks to the Iranians about water / Credit: GPO

Indeed, the criticism from the regime's most powerful institution – the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps – grew progressively harsher. It culminated in the force's ideological officer issuing a mafia-style threat, warning the president "not to tell the truth in public, especially regarding Iran's foreign and security policy, because these are things that can backfire on the members of the government and its head!"

The Iranian public, which endures all the problems the president listed, remained largely indifferent to the speech, having carried these burdens for years. For them, it was not new information. The regime, however, is terrified. It fears that if the president continues to expose its weaknesses, he could embolden the public, leading to unrest that, if it escalates, could threaten the regime's very existence.

This is almost certainly why, since the war with Israel concluded, the regime has offered a social "discount" to women, largely ceasing enforcement of hijab and modesty laws. It has also actively disseminated propaganda on platforms like TikTok, showing a united Iran where citizens are free in their private lives, with videos of couples walking hand-in-hand, some with the hijab and some without.

Meanwhile, as if oblivious to the existential challenges at home, senior IRGC officials have resumed their threats in recent days, vowing revenge against Israel and the US and promising to deliver a blow from which Israel will not recover if it dares to attack again. It remains unclear, and highly unlikely, that the regime could launch such an attack unprovoked. Many analysts believe the threats are born of fear that Israel will strike first, and the bellicose rhetoric is merely an attempt at deterrence.

Yet, nothing in the statements from IRGC spokesmen suggests they are aware of Iran's internal crises. With the Supreme Leader's advisory circle now dominated by security figures, it is imperative to act with vigilance and caution, watching for any signs that they might persuade him to launch an attack on Israel – a move he himself is likely not eager to make.

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The wave of explosions and fires has targeted diverse locations including apartment complexes, oil refineries, roads near major airports, and even a shoe factory. While Iranian officials have publicly attributed the incidents to aging infrastructure, gas leaks, and coincidental malfunctions, they privately suspect a coordinated campaign designed to create instability, The New York Times reported.

Iranian authorities have focused their suspicions on Israel, citing its extensive history of covert operations within Iran, including previous explosions and assassinations. A European official who deals with Iran independently assessed the attacks as sabotage and suspected Israeli involvement, according to The New York Times. The officials spoke anonymously because they were not authorized to discuss the matter publicly.

A senior Israeli intelligence official had vowed to continue operating in Iran following Israel's 12-day bombing campaign against the country last month. The incidents have occurred at a rate of one to two explosions per day across Iran, creating what officials describe as widespread anxiety among both government personnel and the general population.

Among the most significant incidents was a fire at a major oil-producing refinery in the southern city of Abadan on Saturday that killed one person, injured several others, and disabled a production line. Other explosions have struck residential buildings with such force that they sent massive plumes of smoke into the air while collapsing walls and ceilings.

Iranian officials have not provided evidence to support their sabotage suspicions, and authorities who spoke publicly continued to cite alternative explanations including gas leaks, garbage fires, and deteriorating infrastructure. However, they have also failed to provide convincing explanations for why gas explosions are occurring at such an unprecedented rate across the country, The New York Times noted.

The Iranian authorities remain hesitant to publicly declare their suspicions about potential Israeli involvement because they fear being cornered into having to retaliate against Israel. Iran's air defense systems, missile launchers, military bases, and nuclear facilities sustained significant damage during last month's conflict, leaving the country's military capabilities weakened.

Although Iran maintained its ability to launch ballistic missiles into Israel until the final hours before a ceasefire ended the conflict, officials worry that restarting hostilities could further compromise Iran's military strength. This strategic vulnerability has influenced Iran's decision to maintain public silence about potential Israeli involvement while privately investigating the incidents.

Iran: A fire broke out at the refinery facilities in the city of Abadan, in the southwest of the country.
Gas leak? pic.twitter.com/jSVfzoLbfE

— daniel (@LionsOfZion_ORG) July 19, 2025

Some explosions have targeted strategically sensitive locations beyond basic infrastructure. One blast occurred at a high-rise compound in Tehran that provides discounted housing to judiciary employees, blowing out walls and windows. The three Iranian officials told The New York Times they believe saboteurs might have deliberately targeted the location to create panic among judges and prosecutors, similar to Israel's previous campaign of assassinating nuclear scientists.

In another case in Qom, an apartment building explosion was so powerful it resembled the aftermath of a bomb blast, with first-floor walls brought down and windows shattered. A yellow taxi parked on the street was crushed under rubble, and the blast injured seven people while covering the entire surrounding block in debris, according to videos published on social media and BBC Persian.

The unit that exploded appeared to have been rented by operatives who left the building after turning on stove and oven gas, seemingly to deliberately spark a blaze, two Iranian officials told The New York Times. This pattern suggests a level of planning and coordination that contradicts official explanations of accidental gas leaks.

For over a decade before the recent war, Israel and Iran conducted their battles primarily through covert operations spanning air, land, sea, and cyberspace. Israel has repeatedly carried out clandestine operations in Iran, including explosions and drone strikes targeting nuclear facilities and military figures. Iran has responded by attacking Israeli-owned ships in the Persian Gulf, launching missiles at Israel-linked structures in Iraq, and funding armed groups like Hamas in Gaza.

Publicly, Iranian officials have attempted to explain away the fires through various means. In cases such as the blaze near Mashhad International Airport in northeast Iran, officials claimed they were conducting "controlled burning of weeds," while attributing a Tehran fire to garbage burning. For most blazes, however, Iranian officials have blamed gas leaks caused by what the director of Tehran's fire and public safety departments, Ghodratollah Mohammadi, described to state media as "worn-out equipment, the use of substandard gas appliances and disregard for safety principles."

The Revolutionary Guards member interviewed by The New York Times stated that the cumulative effect of near-daily explosions has created a growing sense of anxiety among both officials and Iranian citizens more broadly, regardless of whether some incidents were genuine accidents. "The Iranian government's long record of cover-ups and lack of transparency, along with its vague responses, have only deepened public fear and suspicion," said Omid Memarian, an Iran expert at DAWN, a Washington-based foreign policy research institute. "People are aware the regime often downplays or denies Israeli attacks."

Without public acknowledgment of what many Iranian residents perceive as coordinated attacks, some citizens have questioned whether the war truly ended. "A lot of us think that it is Israel's doing and that war is going to start again," said Mohammed, who runs a cafe and art gallery in Kashan. He requested anonymity over fears of repercussions for speaking to foreign news media, adding that he felt "scared and paranoid," particularly because Kashan is located near nuclear sites and missile bases.

Mahdi Mohammadi, a conservative politician and senior advisor to Iran's head of Parliament, described the situation with Israel as unpredictable. "If anyone thinks we are dealing with linear events that we can predict, they are naïve," Mohammadi said in one of his regular recorded speeches distributed on Telegram. "We are not even in a ceasefire now; we are in a fragile suspension, and any minute it can end, and we are back at war."

Many Iranians have also questioned the circumstances surrounding the death last week of Brig. Gen. Gholamhossein Gheybparvar, a deputy commander of the Revolutionary Guards who oversaw a Tehran military base responsible for crackdowns on women-led protests in 2021. According to a state media announcement, he died from complications related to chemical weapons injuries sustained during Iran's 1980s war with Iraq, which had flared up amid stress from the recent conflict with Israel.

Officials have attempted various approaches to address public anxieties about the ongoing incidents. The national gas company released statistics arguing there was no notable increase in explosions from gas leaks this year compared to last year's figures. The Tehran City Council invited the gas company and ministry of energy to present reports regarding "recent measures and developments," describing the discussion as addressing the situation under "normal circumstances."

To cope with mounting stress, many Iranians have turned to dark humor on social media, sharing photoshopped images of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu wearing the uniform of Iran's national gas company.

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Iranian military planners are preparing an extensive retaliatory strike against Israel that could employ enhanced warheads and sophisticated weaponry, according to Iranian and Arab officials familiar with the planning who spoke to The Wall Street Journal.

The warnings emerge in defiance of American diplomatic pressure to avoid escalation, though analysts remain divided on whether these signals represent concrete intentions or strategic messaging. The October 26 Israeli strike has left Iran's air defense network severely compromised, potentially increasing the stakes of any retaliatory action.

Future Israeli military responses would be calibrated based on the magnitude and success of Iran's threatened offensive, sources tell The Wall Street Journal. While Israeli forces have previously avoided striking Iran's economic and nuclear assets, officials indicate this restraint could shift depending on Iran's actions. The involvement of Iran's conventional military forces marks a significant shift, diplomatic sources revealed to The Wall Street Journal, citing the casualties sustained in Israel's attack – four military personnel and one civilian. This unprecedented coordination between regular forces and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps suggests an expanded operational scope, though not necessarily direct troop deployment.

A senior Iranian official, speaking to The Wall Street Journal, emphasized the military's obligation to respond. "Our military lost people, so they need to respond," the official stated, adding that the operation might utilize Iraqi territory and target Israeli military installations "but much more aggressively than last time."

Breaking from previous patterns of drone and missile-only attacks, Iranian strategists are considering a broader range of military options, according to officials who spoke with The Wall Street Journal. The planned response could feature missiles carrying enhanced warheads, surpassing the capabilities demonstrated in Iran's October 1 strike, which deployed Emad and Ghadr missiles alongside advanced Kheibar Shekan and Fattah systems.

Iranian planning takes into account the US political calendar, sources tell The Wall Street Journal. While avoiding actions during Tuesday's American elections, Iran intends to execute its response before the January presidential inauguration. US intelligence assessments indicate Iran's preference for Kamala Harris over Donald Trump, the official noted.

Diplomatic representatives from Egypt, Bahrain, and Oman informed The Wall Street Journal that Iranian officials outlined these response scenarios despite repeated US warnings. UN Ambassador Linda Thomas–Greenfield recently cautioned of "severe consequences" for any Iranian aggression against Israel or US interests.

"We believe this should be the end of the direct exchange of fire between Israel and Iran," Thomas–Greenfield declared.

Iran's diplomatic stance has undergone a rapid transformation, according to regional sources speaking to The Wall Street Journal. Initial signals of restraint quickly gave way to more aggressive rhetoric. A high–ranking Iranian general promised an "unimaginable response" on Friday, followed by Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's Saturday warning of a "tooth–breaking response."

Western intelligence sources indicate ongoing internal debates within Iranian leadership regarding response options, including whether to strike directly or through proxy forces. Israeli intelligence shares this assessment and has warned of potentially devastating counterstrikes.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu highlighted Israel's successful targeting of Iran's "soft underbelly" while dismissing Tehran's "haughty words." "Today, Israel has greater freedom of action than ever before," Netanyahu stated. "We can go anywhere that we need to in Iran."

Despite US efforts to limit Israel's October 26 operation to military targets, Arab officials express growing concern about potential Israeli escalation in future operations. Netanyahu recently reaffirmed that preventing Iranian nuclear weapons capability remains Israel's "supreme objective." Iranian authorities continue to deny any nuclear weapons program.

Israel's recent military operation demonstrated potential strategic flexibility, striking a facility previously connected to nuclear research. Satellite imagery analysts noted an additional strike on what experts described as a minor target at Iran's Abadan refinery.

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian declared Sunday that Iran must respond to Israel's attack, though he suggested "the type and intensity of our response" might be influenced by potential ceasefires in Gaza and Lebanon.

While American forces weren't directly involved in Israel's Iranian operation, US military assets would likely support Israeli defenses against retaliation. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin has directed additional B–52 Stratofortress bombers, tanker aircraft and Navy destroyers to the Middle East, the Pentagon announced Friday. These reinforcements coincide with the departure of the USS Abraham Lincoln carrier strike group, marking the first absence of a US carrier in the region since Hamas's October 2023 attack on Israel.

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A key Iranian missile production facility has been destroyed in what appears to be a precision strike, according to satellite imagery analysis conducted by the Associated Press. The targeted complex, located at a Revolutionary Guards base, played a crucial role in Iran's ballistic missile development program.

NEW HIGH-DEF SATTELITE PHOTOS FROM IRAN: AP has released new satellite imagery of the Israeli strikes on the IRGC Shahroud base showing the damage; pay attention to the central blue building. pic.twitter.com/6IP8PqY6uu

— Monika (@Monika_is_His) October 29, 2024

 "While we cannot definitively say whether Iranian production capabilities were completely neutralized, as some experts suggest, or merely damaged, we now have sufficient photographic evidence to confirm substantial impact and destruction," says Fabian Hinz, an Iran missile program specialist at the International Institute for Strategic Studies in Washington.

Located in Shahrud, a town in the rural Semnan province northeast of Tehran, the facility operated in a sparsely populated area.  Analysis of high-resolution imagery purchased from Planet Labs by AP shows a central building at the Shahrud base sustained direct hits, with multiple vehicles visible around the impact site. Three auxiliary facilities nearby also suffered damage, along with a newly constructed hangar.

"The presence of protective earthen barriers around this building suggests it handled highly explosive materials," notes Hinz, who has extensively studied the site and believes it served as a solid rocket fuel production facility. Satellite photos taken before the strike show large containers near the building that likely housed Kheibar Shekan and Fateh-1 ballistic missiles.

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Putting an end to weeks of speculation about his fate, Esmail Ghaani, the commander of Iran's elite Quds Force, made a public appearance at Tehran's Mehrabad Airport early Tuesday. His presence dispels rumors of his death or injury that had circulated following an Israeli airstrike in Beirut's southern suburbs in late September.

In the pre-dawn hours of Tuesday, Esmail Ghaani, commander of Iran's Quds Force, was spotted at Tehran's Mehrabad Airport. He was there to receive the body of Abbas Nilforoushan, a high-ranking official of the organization in Lebanon, who was killed alongside Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah in Beirut.

An Israeli strike targeted the southern Beirut neighborhood of Dahieh in late September, reportedly aimed at Hashem Safieddine, the designated successor to Hezbollah's secretary-general. Israeli intelligence suggests that Nasrallah's intended heir was eliminated in the operation.

In the days following the strike, unverified reports emerged suggesting Ghaani had been killed or wounded. Iranian sources later confirmed to Reuters that Ghaani had been in Beirut in the period leading up to the aerial bombardment of the underground bunker. Subsequently, Revolutionary Guards spokespersons asserted that he was unharmed.

More recently, reports from Sky News and the Middle East Eye website alleged that Ghaani was under investigation by the Revolutionary Guards. According to Sky News sources, Ghaani was being questioned about a suspected intelligence leak and had reportedly been hospitalized after suffering a heart attack. Iranian officials once again refuted these claims.

A correspondent for the Lebanese channel Al-Mayadeen, reporting from Iran, stated that Tehran had deliberately released live footage of Ghaani to counter what it called "completely false narratives" about him circulated by certain media outlets. The public appearance of Ghaani at Mehrabad Airport seems to be a calculated move by Iranian authorities to quash rumors and demonstrate the Quds Force commander's continued active role in the country's military leadership.

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