US officials told The Wall Street Journal that Turkish military commandos, artillery units, and allied militia fighters have concentrated in significant numbers near the Kurdish-majority city of Kobani in northern Syria, in moves reminiscent of Turkey's 2019 invasion of the northeastern part of the country.

"We are focused on it and pressing for restraint," a US official told The Wall Street Journal, warning that a cross-border operation could be imminent.

The buildup has prompted intense concern in Washington, coming just after Syrian President Bashar Assad's regime fell to rebel groups led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham in early December. US officials view the power vacuum as potentially destabilizing for the entire region.

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken made an urgent visit to Turkey last week to discuss Syria's future with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and seek assurances that Ankara would limit operations against Kurdish fighters.

However, US-brokered ceasefire talks between the Syrian Kurds and Turkish-backed rebels in Kobani collapsed Monday without agreement, according to a Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) spokesman, who reported "significant military buildups" east and west of the city. The developments threaten to undermine joint US-Kurdish operations against Islamic State remnants in northeast Syria. The SDF has been a critical US ally in the fight against Islamic State but is considered by Ankara to be an extension of the banned Kurdistan Workers' Party.

Ilham Ahmed, an official in the Syrian Kurds' civilian administration, appealed directly to President-elect Donald Trump in a letter viewed by The Wall Street Journal, warning that Turkey aims to "establish de facto control over our land before you take office, forcing you to engage with them as rulers of our territory."

"If Turkey proceeds with its invasion, the consequences will be catastrophic," Ahmed wrote to Trump. The Turkish embassy in Washington did not immediately respond to requests for comment from The Wall Street Journal. Speaking at his Florida residence Monday, Trump suggested Turkey orchestrated Hayat Tahrir al-Sham's takeover of Syria, saying, "Turkey did an unfriendly takeover without a lot of lives being lost."

Ahmed warned Trump that a Turkish invasion would displace more than 200,000 Kurdish civilians in Kobani alone, along with many Christian communities. During his first term, Trump partially withdrew US troops from northeast Syria, leading to a major Turkish offensive that resulted in hundreds of thousands of Syrian casualties and displaced persons. The Trump administration later helped broker a ceasefire that required Kurdish forces to cede miles of border territory to Turkish control.

Though Trump doesn't take office until Jan. 20, Ahmed urged the president-elect to use his "unique approach to diplomacy" to convince Erdogan to halt any planned operation, referencing a previous meeting where Trump promised "the United States wouldn't abandon the Kurds."

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This would be Turkey's third such incursion since 2016. Motivated largely by the aim of containing Syrian Kurdish power, Turkey already has troops on the ground across an arc of northwestern Syria, the last stronghold of anti-Damascus rebels.

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What does Turkey want?

Turkey has two main goals in northeast Syria: to drive the Kurdish YPG militia which it deems a security threat away from its border, and to create a space inside Syria where 2 million Syrian refugees currently hosted in Turkey can be settled.

It had been pushing the United States to jointly establish a "safe zone" extending 20 miles (32 km) into Syrian territory, but repeatedly warned it could take unilateral military action after accusing Washington of dragging its feet.

Turkish President Tayyip Erdoğan has recently talked about pushing even deeper into Syria, beyond the proposed "safe zone" region to the cities of Raqqa and Deir ez-Zor, in order to allow still more refugees to return to Syria.

How will the Kurds be affected?

The Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) have spent years expanding its control across northern and eastern Syria, helped by the US-led coalition against Islamic State.

A rare case of a winner in the Syrian war, the Kurds and their allies have set up their own governing bodies while always insisting their aim is autonomy, not independence.

All of this could unravel in the event of a major Turkish invasion that would plunge the area into warfare. The SDF-affiliated Syrian Democratic Council said an attack would trigger a new wave of mass displacement.

For the SDF alliance, in which the Syrian Kurdish YPG militia is the dominant force, much will depend on whether the United States continues to keep forces in other parts of the northeast and east. A full US withdrawal would expose the area to the risk of more Turkish advances, an Islamic State revival, or attempts by Iranian- and Russian-backed government forces to gain ground.

Confronted by the prospect of US withdrawal last year, the Kurds beat a path to Damascus for talks over allowing the Syrian government and its ally Russia to deploy at the border.

The talks made no progress, but such negotiations could be an option again in the event of a wider US withdrawal.

How far could Turkey go?

The northeastern border region, currently controlled by Kurdish-led forces, stretches 480 km (300 miles) from the Euphrates river in the west to the Iraq border to the east.

The immediate focus of Turkey's military plans appears to be around a section of the border between the towns of Ras al-Ain and Tal Abyad, which are about 100 km (62 miles) apart. A US official told Reuters on Monday US forces had withdrawn from observation posts there.

Although under the control of Kurdish-led forces, that part of the border has historically had a strong Arab presence.

"It's a region where the population is Arab and where Turkey has good ties with the leading groups," said Ozgur Unluhisarcikli of the German Marshall Fund. If the YPG tries to hold territory there "it will lose a lot of blood," he said.

Turkey has not spelled out the scope or the initial focus of its planned operation. "The location, time and scope for implementing the measures against security risks will once again be decided by Turkey," a Turkish official told Reuters.

Do Russia and Iran back Turkey's move?

Russia and Iran, the other two major foreign powers in Syria, strongly support Syrian President Bashar Assad – unlike Turkey and the United States, which both called for him to stand down and supported rebels fighting to overthrow him.

Russia has said that Turkey has the right to defend itself, but Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said on Monday that Syria's territorial integrity must be preserved and that all foreign military forces "with illegal presence" should leave Syria.

If the US pulls out all its troops from northeast Syria, the Damascus government – backed by Russia – may try to retake control of much of the region not seized by Turkey.

What is the western reaction to Turkey's plan?

There has been no public support from Turkey's Western allies for its plan to settle 2 million Syrians – more than half of the refugees it currently hosts – in northeast Syria.

The main Western concerns are that an influx of Sunni Arab Syrians into the largely Kurdish northeast would change the demographics of the region.

The United Nations regional coordinator for the Syria crisis said all sides should avoid major displacement of civilians if Turkey launches an assault.

What does this mean for Assad?

While the territory in question is already outside Syrian government control, a Turkish incursion would mean the area switching from a non-hostile force – the SDF – to Turkey and rebels that have sought to topple Assad.

Damascus has long viewed Turkey as an occupying power with designs on northern Syria. It has also at times suggested a willingness to strike a deal with the Kurds, though their last negotiations got nowhere.

What could this mean for the Islamic State?

Chaos could present Islamic State with an opportunity to stage a revival and the SDF has been conducting operations against ISIS sleeper cells since capturing its final territorial foothold earlier this year.

Syrian Kurdish leaders have long warned that the SDF may not be able to continue holding IS prisoners if the situation was destabilized by a Turkish invasion.

The SDF is still holding 5,000 ISIS fighters of Syrian and Iraqi nationality and a further 1,000 foreigners from more than 55 other states, according to the foreign relations department of the Kurdish-led administration in northern Syria.

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U.S. President Donald Trump announced last month the decision to withdraw 2,000 U.S. troops who have deployed to Syria in support of the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) militia in the fight against Islamic State.

The coalition "has begun the process of our deliberate withdrawal from Syria. Out of concern for operational security, we will not discuss specific timelines, locations or troop movements," Col. Sean Ryan said.

Washington's Kurdish allies in northern Syria fear the withdrawal will open the way for Turkey to mount a long-threatened offensive against their area. Turkey views the dominant Syrian Kurdish groups as a national security threat.

U.S. National Security Adviser John Bolton suggested on Tuesday that protecting the Kurds would be a precondition of the U.S. withdrawal, drawing a rebuke from Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan who called his comments "a serious mistake."

But U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said on Thursday the withdrawal would not be scuppered despite the Turkish threats.

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