Iran's presidential election has ended in a runoff, with voter turnout plummeting to a record-low 40%, signaling growing disillusionment with the Islamic Republic's political system. As the country prepares for a second round of voting, Western hopes for a reformist victory appear increasingly illusory while the regime continues to consolidate power both domestically and regionally.

The inconclusive first round marks another blow to the regime's legitimacy. Voter participation fell to just 40%, down from 48% in 2021 and 73% in 2017. No candidate secured a majority, forcing a runoff.

The Iranian public's disenchantment is palpable. All candidates answer to the de facto ruler, with three hailing from the reform-averse conservative faction. Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's political theater, which truly dictates foreign and security policies, has lost its veneer of authenticity. Social media even joked that Khamenei cast his vote for his son Mojtaba, his presumed successor.

Yet despite waning enthusiasm, the turnout suggests that while the republic's internal legitimacy falters, the government's grip remains firm. A significant base still accepts the status quo. This is bolstered by the Revolutionary Guards, 150,000 to 200,000 strong, alongside the Basij, a civilian auxiliary force millions strong, tasked with quashing dissent.

Western powers, however, cling to electoral hopes. Many policymakers root for reformist candidate Masoud Pezeshkian, seen as potentially amenable to a new nuclear deal. The US and EU persist in seeking "peace in our time" with a regime known for its brutality and corruption. Western diplomats might tout a postponed nuclear threat as a victory, even as Tehran advances its conventional military capabilities.

Pezeshkian could play the perfect role in an Iranian charm offensive. The physician-turned-politician advocates for Western engagement to boost Iran's economy – music to Washington and Brussels' ears. For Khamenei, presenting a palatable political figure is strategically convenient, especially after April's brazen attack on Israel. A veneer of moderation could soothe both international tensions and domestic unrest.

This development underscores the election's limited impact. The July 5 runoff won't determine Iran's true leader. In reality, the victor will simply become Khamenei's highest-ranking official, as the Supreme Leader retains ultimate control.

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Throughout Joe Biden's presidency, there have been persistent claims that he is being "managed" by a group of advisors and Democratic leaders who not only support him but potentially steer his policies. The frequent calls from former President Barack Obama to the White House have fueled this perception, suggesting that Biden's tenure is effectively Obama's third term – albeit a far more radical one.

Now, in light of the incumbent president's recent on-air stumble, it seems the proverbial smoking gun has been found. The president is functioning at a subpar level, while an extreme progressive group, led by Secretary of State Antony Blinken, is driving US foreign policy. None of the issues concerning American citizens and those of other nations, such as Israel and Ukraine, are being adequately addressed or resolved.

In a world rife with aggressive forces, the unflattering image of an American president – the leader of the free world – appearing weak and incoherent encourages them to exploit opportunities. Biden's decline mirrors the collapse of his Middle East policy vis-à-vis Iran and its proxies, as well as the incomprehensible crisis at the southern border with Mexico. This porous region is drawing millions of migrants of all types into the United States, including criminal and terrorist elements.

Now, in light of the incumbent president's recent on-air stumble, it seems the proverbial smoking gun has been found. The president is functioning at a subpar level, while an extreme progressive group, led by Secretary of State Antony Blinken, is driving US foreign policy. None of the issues concerning American citizens and those of other nations, such as Israel and Ukraine, are being adequately addressed or resolved.

Donald Trump didn't gain supporters following the televised confrontation early Friday morning. But Biden lost a great deal, according to the veteran Fox News commentator Bret Baier's simple summary. For many months, the question of whether Biden will actually be the Democratic presidential nominee has loomed large. Nikki Haley repeatedly stated that he won't be. Speculation abounds – if not him, then who? The situation has deteriorated to the point where New York Times columnist Thomas Friedman is pleading with Biden to step aside. A sad sight to use a word Trump is so fond of.

Serious reporters with extensive Biden coverage have repeatedly claimed that Biden is self-confident and doesn't entertain the thought of withdrawing from the race. Too arrogant, too stubborn. Even now, he justified his failure with the excuse that it's difficult to contend with a liar. Leaders are expected to deal with other leaders who are far worse than "liars" – mass murderers, for instance.

There was a point when it seemed that former President Obama and his allies in the foreign relations establishment and the party were comfortable having a president who was weak in many respects in the White House. This situation invites evasion of responsibility. Every mishap is filed away as an event that Biden can't be expected to handle. Conversely, those responsible for strategic blunders are not called to account.

The case of Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin stands out, where contact with him was lost until it was discovered he was hospitalized, and President Biden was completely unaware. The Defense Secretary! A person supposed to be responsible for world peace takes his hands off the wheel. Perhaps this is what Trump alluded to when he spoke about Biden not firing any generals.

The Democrats' problem now is that they have no candidate who can motivate their voters to turn out en masse at the polls or make an effort to fill out early voting ballots. Not even Biden himself. Kamala Harris intimidates people; California Governor Gavin Newsom hasn't logged enough miles on the national stage. And Michelle Obama? It seems too late for her to suddenly jump into the boiling political cauldron.

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21:17: The Central Election Committee reports that voter turnout as of 8 p.m. stands at 65.5%. Voter turnout for the same time during September's election stood at 63.7%, or 4,071,398 voters. The turnout on Monday was the highest since the 1999 elections.

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19:19: The Central Election Committee reports that voter turnout as of 6 p.m. stands at 56.3%. Voter turnout for the same time during September's election stood at 53.5%, or 3,418,531 voters. The turnout on Monday was the highest since the 1999 elections.

17.30: The Central Election Committee reports that voter turnout as of 4 p.m. stands at 47%. Voter turnout for the same time during September's election stood at 44.3%, or 2,834,584 voters.

15.30: The Central Election Committee reports that voter turnout as of 2 p.m. stands at 38.1%. Voter turnout for the same time during September's election stood at 36.5%, or 2,331,974 voters.

•••

14:18: Facebook says it has suspended seven accounts it believes are fake for posts seeking to undermine voter turnout in the Arab sector. Over the past week, the social media giant has removed 30 fake profiles from its platform, citing the same reason.

14:02: Central Election Committee Chairman Justice Neal Handel has instructed the Likud to respond to a petition by the far-right Otzma Yehudit claiming the ruling party has been spreading rumors suggesting Otzma Yehudit had pulled out of the Knesset race.

Otzma Yehudit chief Itamar Ben Gvir: "A red line in Israeli politics have been crossed. The panic and stress our rivals are under are leading them to break the law in an attempt to steal the elections. We will not be silenced."

•••

13:45: Labor-Gesher-Meretz leader Amir Peretz urged Blue and White leader Benny Gantz to "order his activists to cease their attacks on other members in the [Center-Left] bloc. I will be the responsible adult and I will not be degraded into this."

13:30: The Central Election Committee reports that voter turnout as of 12 p.m. stands at 27.6%. Voter turnout for the same time during September's election stood at 26.8%, or 1,713,936 voters.

•••

12:30: United Torah Judaism claims its voters have been receiving phone calls from unknown sources claiming that polling stations are closed or that they are registered as having voted. The party warns that this is an attempt to tamper with its electorate.

•••

11:53: The Central Election Committee reports that voter turnout as of 10 a.m. stands at 14.5%. Voter turnout for the same time during September's election stood at 15%, or 956,856 voters.

Video: GPO

11:21: Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his wife, Sara voted in Jerusalem. The prime minister urged eligible voters to exercise their right, saying, "I call on everyone to vote – it's a great democratic privilege and we need to be proud of it"

He further cautioned against fake news, saying, "Don't listen to fake news that only try to prevent you from voting. Arrive at the polling stations with confidence and your head held high."

•••

10:32: Voting in third elections this year, President Reuven Rivlin said he felt "uneasy, ashamed even. The Israeli public did not deserve an election campaign that sunk to such lows. We simply didn't deserve this."

10:15: Yesh Atid leader Yair Lapid voted in Tel Aviv and the public to exercise their democratic right to vote.

"I cast a ballot over the question of what country we will have tomorrow – a good, inclusive, decent and unifying country, or one of fear, hate, and polarization. Every Israeli should take a stand today on the question of where he wants to live."

•••

9:47: Yamina leader Naftali Bennett voted in Raanana. "These elections are not all about mud-slinging. There is another way, which is the love of the land of Israel. Go out and vote!"

9:45: Labor-Gesher-Meretz appealed to the Central Election Committee against Shas, claiming that representatives of the Sephardi ultra-Orthodox party were handing out charms to voters, in violation of election law. Labor-Gesher-Meretz asked the Central Election Committee to fine Shas.

•••

9:43: United Torah Judaism leader Yakov Litzman voted in Jerusalem. Litzman, who is also the health minister, urged the public to vote, saying the coronavirus poses no threat in polling stations.

"The Health Ministry has everything under control. Those who have been quarantined will vote in designated polling stations. The public can vote without hesitation," he said, urging everyone to "beware fake news. Only the Health Ministry can issue alerts about the coronavirus."

•••

9:41: Joint Arab List leader Ayman Odeh voted in Haifa. Speaking with reporters after he cast his ballot, Odeh said, "We cannot effect change in Israel without a partnership between Arabs and Jews."

•••

09:30:  Blue and White leader Benny Gantz voted in Rosh Haayin, in central Israel. Gantz called on all Israelis to exercise their right to vote, saying, "I hope this will be the day when we bring about change and start living with each other, stop the mud-slinging, the lying, and the manipulations. I urge everyone to vote."

9:26: Meretz leader Nitzan Horowitz voted in Tel Aviv, saying, "Every ballot counts. This is the moment of truth and each and every one of us has the power to decide.  We won't allow for a fourth election to take place."

•••

9:25: Otzma Yehudit head Itamar Ben Gvir voted in Kiryat Arba, on the outskirts of Hebron. "This is a morning when we can create alternatives," he told reporters. "This is a morning to vote for people whose word is set in stone. I ask you to vote for Otzma Yehudit. We are the alternative."

•••

 09:10: Labor-Gesher-Meretz leader Amir Peretz voted in his hometown of Sderot, in southern Israel.

Speaking with reported after casting his ballot, Peretz urged the public to vote, saying, "This is the moment of truth. The political blocs are neck-and-neck in this race and victory is within reach. We can to it!"

•••

8:45: Yamina MK Ayelet Shaked called on Israelis to vote, saying, "We have to extract ourselves from this deadlock. I hope Yamina grows as much as possible."

8:12: Yisrael Beytenu leader Avigdor Lieberman urged "the silent majority to vote." Speaking to reporters after voting in his home community of Nokdim, Lieberman said, "The results are crucial, they will decide between a halachic [religious] state and a strong Yisrael Beytenu. It's all up to the voters."

•••

8:00: Shas leader Aryeh Deri voted in Jerusalem, where he told reporters that the right-wing bloc "is very close to 60 seats. With a little effort, and if people don't waste their votes on Otzma Yehudit we'll get there."

•••

The 10,840 polling stations for Israel's third general election in under a year opened at 7 a.m. Monday morning, staffed by some 100,000 election workers.

Video: Reuters

Over 6.45 million Israelis are eligible to vote in the general elections, although the prevailing assessment leading up to Election Day was that a sense of alienation and frustration caused by the ongoing political impasse which has reigned since the April 9, 2019 election would lead to unusually low voter turnout.

The Sept. 17, 2019 election saw voter turnout of 69.83%, slightly higher than the voter turnout for the April 9 election, which stood at 68.5%.

To ensure that as many eligible voters as possible can exercise their right, the Central Elections Committee decided that 650 intercity bus lines, as well as the nation's trains, would offer free transportation.

The minimum electoral threshold (the percentage of the vote that a party must receive to make it into the Knesset) remains at 3.25%.

Polls will remain open until 10 p.m. Monday evening, with the exception of small local authorities with 350 or fewer registered voters, where polls will close at 8 p.m. Over 18,000 members of the Israel Police, Border Guards, and police volunteers, in addition to thousands of civilian security guards, are on duty at polling places to ensure that voters can cast ballots safely.

Meanwhile, Israel has imposed a general closure on Judea and Samaria and on crossings to and from the Gaza Strip. The closure will remain in place until midnight Monday, at which time the crossings are scheduled to reopen.

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On Sunday evening, the Likud was scheduled to hold a Hanukkah candle-lighting ceremony in Tel Aviv at which Netanyahu is expected to embrace his primaries rival Gideon Sa'ar and call on him to work with the rest of the Likud to ensure that the party wins the March 2 election.

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In another Likud development, party officials believe Netanyahu will appoint Foreign Minister Israel Katz as head of the Likud election committee after his success waging Netanyahu's campaign in the primaries. As part of an attempt to bolster the party's fieldwork, Likud ministers and MKs will be assigned specific areas of the country for which they will be responsible during the campaign.

Likud faction leader MK Miki Zohar told Israel Hayom that, "The primaries were a great indication of how to win an election and how to get stronger ahead of the general election. We used two very clear strategies: A lot of time out in the field campaigning, which 'woke up' our side, as well as not attacking the opponent and nearly ignoring his existence. We saw in the primary results how that put a damper on the other side."

According to Zohar, "Right now, the seat equation is difficult. There, voter turnout comes into play. We need to create a situation in which our bloc turns out to vote in very high numbers … When it comes to the other side, we need to ignore his existence."

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Despite the chilling predictions that the Arab sector would see even lower voter turnout than it did in the election for the 20^th Knesset (under 50%), it was clear starting early Tuesday that Arabs were showing up to vote. Long lines could be seen at polling stations in Arab communities from the North to the Negev.

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While many Arab voters admitted freely that they had been encouraged by the reunification of the Joint Arab List, they were mainly encouraged to vote by a campaign that they said put anti-Arab incitement in the center of public discourse, and tried to characterize the sector as working to "steal" the election.

After its success in the election, the Joint Arab List faces a number of major challenges. First and foremost, the Arab Israeli public expects the Joint list to work on behalf of its constituency.

The Joint Arab List will be the party mainly responsible for addressing crime, illegal weapons, and murder in the Arab sector, as well as poverty and strengthening the Arab school system, and adding classrooms and clinics in Arab communities and mixed cities.

The Arab public truly feels that Tuesday was a historic day, one that will change the political map in Israel.

However, many wonder if the Joint Arab List will be able to channel its electoral success into political achievements that benefit the Arab sector, or whether its representatives will get bogged down in political battles and conflicting interests between the members of the four parties that comprise the list: Hadash, Ta'al, Ra'am, and Balad.

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In the Bedouin town of Rahat, a man who reportedly tried to slip multiple envelopes into the ballot box was arrested on suspicion of fraud.

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Three polling stations in the Druze village of Yarka were shut down due to suspected fraud. Authorities suspect that attempts were made to insert multiple envelopes into the ballot box, and the chair of the local election committee ordered the stations to be closed until the matter could be clarified.

In Jerusalem, police detained a 17-year-old youth who tried to vote using someone else's ID. In Israel, voters must be 18 on the day of the election.

The Labor-Gesher list filed a complaint with the Central Elections Committee about ballots for the list being removed from a polling station in Tel Aviv. Party officials claim that the polling station committee told voters it had removed the ballots because the list would not make it past the minimum electoral threshold.

Labor-Gesher also reported attempts at fraud at polling stations in Beersheba, claiming that Likud volunteers had put old ballots for the Labor party under former leader Avi Gabbay in the tray in place of ballots for Labor-Gesher. Old ballots would be invalid. Officials filed a complaint with the Central Elections Committee.

A man who arrived at an Ashdod polling station to vote for Yisrael Beytenu discovered that he was listed as already having voted. The man filed complaints with the police and with the Central Elections Committee.

Yisrael Beytenu filed a complaint with the Central Elections Committee against the Likud, arguing that Likud activists were photographing people outside a polling station in Or Akiva. The party also claimed that in Arad, members of the Gur hassidic sect had removed Yisrael Beytenu ballots from the voting booths.

In addition, the party complained that at two polling stations in Ashdod, the party's three-letter code had been covered up, and voters had been told not to seal the ballot envelopes, in violation of election law.

The Democratic Union reported an incident in Petach Tikva in which they claimed that one of the party's activists had been assaulted by a Likud activist. The Democratic Union issued a statement: "We will continue to fight bravely for democracy. The sectoralization of Netanyahu and the Right will not deter us. We call on the public not to be afraid, and to come vote."

The Democratic Union said that in light of tips about alleged attempts by the Likud to tamper with the election, it had opened a special hotline to deal with reports of irregularities.

Blue and White reported that at a few polling stations in Herzliya, the party's ballots had been printed with an error that invalidated them. The party asked the public to be on the alert.

The police closed one polling station in Umm al-Fahm due to rioting that erupted after police were informed that one of the observers had started to photograph voters. The observer was removed, and residents began to gather. The polling station was closed until the police could gain control of the situation.

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But by the afternoon of Election Day 2019, 2.0, things appeared to be heading in the opposite direction, with a higher voter turnout than the last few elections.

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Voter turnout is a key factor in the election results. Parties that are hovering over the minimum electoral threshold could find themselves below the red line and out of the Knesset if there is a high turnout overall. A failure by one such party, on the Right or the Left, to make it past the 3.25% threshold could determine the fate of the entire election.

As of Tuesday afternoon, three parties looked like they could find themselves in that position: the far-right Otzma Yehudit, and the Labor-Gesher and Democratic Union lists on the Left. Neither the Likud nor Blue and White are counting on them, and are even trying to increase their numbers on the backs of the smaller parties, assuming that a party's size will be the deciding factor.

However, a blocking opposition on either side is still significant, and if one party is eliminated, it will have a dramatic effect on the entire political map, particularly if it happens to be one of the left-wing parties.

Based on interim numbers, residents of Israel's largest cities are getting out the vote, which is good news for Blue and White and the left-wing bloc as a whole. If we take into account the surprising voter turnout in the Arab sector, it could push Blue and White leader Benny Gantz and his cohort far enough ahead for Gantz to be assigned the responsibility of putting together the next government.

In such a close election, every seat can give either side a blocking opposition, and this time, the battle really is for every last vote.

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However, when we look at the major blocs, a left-wing bloc that includes the Joint Arab List and Yisrael Beytenu appears to have the advantage.

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An i24NEWS-Israel Hayom poll conducted by the Maagar Mohot Institute surveyed a representative sample of adult Israeli eligible voters. The poll had a margin of error of 2.8%.

The poll predicted that the Likud would win 33 seats – the largest number for any party. The center-left Blue and White trailed by two seats, winning a projected 31.

The Joint Arab List, which appears to have been energized by the controversy surrounding a proposal to place cameras at polling places, won the third-largest number of predicted seats – 12.

Yisrael Beytenu dropped to a projected nine seats, followed by the haredi parties Shas and United Torah Judaism, each of which was predicted to win seven seats.

Yamina (formerly the New Right) under Ayelet Shaked was projected to win seven seats.

On the Left, six seats were projected for Labor-Gesher, bringing it farther away from the risk of not making it past the minimum electoral threshold of 3.25%. However, the Democratic Union seemed to be in trouble and was projected to win only four seats.

The poll also showed – for the second week in a row – the far-right Otzma Yehudit passing the minimum threshold with a projected four seats.

All the parties are expected to invest more resources than usual in getting voters to the polls on Election Day. Most of the campaign took place during summer vacation, and this is a repeat election. Both these factors could lead to low voter turnout, which could have a major effect on the results.

The i24NEWS-Israel Hayom poll tried to ascertain how certain supporters of various parties are that they will actually vote.

Two-thirds (66%) of respondents said they were 100% sure they would be voting. Another 21% said it was highly likely they would vote. Only 13% said it was "somewhat likely" or "unlikely" that they would vote.

The most gung-ho voters were supporters of Shas, 79% of whom said they were absolutely sure they would be casting ballots. Just behind the Shas, in terms of declared voter turnout, was United Torah Judaism, with 77% of supporters saying they would be voting – the same percentage of Blue and White voters who say they will definitely vote.

However, only 69% of Likud voters say they definitely plan to vote in the election.

If we look only at the respondents who said they definitely plan to vote, Blue and White won the most seats, coming in at 33, followed by the Likud at 32 seats.

Two weeks ago, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu warned that the right-wing public, especially Likud voters, were comparatively apathetic compared to left-wing voters.

This can be explained by another one of the questions on this week's poll. Respondents were asked, regardless of their political alignment, who would be charged with putting together the next government. Half of respondents said it would be Netanyahu, and only 25% thought that Blue and White leader Benny Gantz would be the person who would form the next government. Leaving out the 25% of respondents who said they didn't know who would be charged with putting together the government, 67% said it would be Netanyahu, compared to 33% who said they thought it would be Gantz. When a Netanyahu victory is seen as a sure thing, it's no wonder that right-wing voters might be inclined to stay home.

When asked who was most qualified to serve as prime minister, 49% of respondents picked Netanyahu, compared to 33% who picked Gantz. To the more specific question of who is best qualified to handle defense and security matters, 48% of respondents backed Netanyahu, compared to 35% for Gantz.

Netanyahu was also the favorite when it came to economic issues, with 41% saying he could best handle the economy. 36% said that Gantz was best qualified to handle the economy. However, when it came to social issues, Gantz came out ahead, with 39% saying he was best qualified to address social issues, compared to 33% who said Netanyahu was best-equipped to handle social matters.

When asked about blocs, rather than specific parties, 50% of respondents said they intended to vote for the Right, compared to 18% who said they intended to vote for the Left. Another 26% said they were in the center and 6% gave other responses.

Another question tried to pinpoint respondents' attitudes about the election. Fifty-three percent characterized it as "dirty," while 10% called it "violent." In contrast, 11% characterized it as "fair," compared to 8% who said it was "appropriate."

Blue and White billboards are promising a "secular unity government," and Lieberman has been touting a similar message these past few months. But how many voters actually want a unity government after the election? Not all that many, it turns out. Only 23% said they would like to see a unity government, compared to 41% who said they wanted to see a right-wing government, which Netanyahu is promising. Another 26% said they wanted the election to result in a left-wing government.

The post Poll predicts 62 seats for left-wing coalition with Lieberman appeared first on www.israelhayom.com.

In the past decade, the limitations of research institutes have been made clear time after time. Only a small minority of the public contacted by pollsters are even willing to take part in surveys. In addition, the freehand the pollsters allow themselves in analyzing the responses of undecided voters is always problematic.

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We must also take into account the unwillingness of the Arab public and the haredi sector to answer pollsters' questions, as well as last-minute surprises that pollsters do not take into account. What's more, the law bans the publication of any polling results in the three days leading up to Election Day. All these contribute to the repeat failures we see on the part of pollsters to predict the final results. In the April 9 election, most erred by as many as 30-35 seats, which went to parties other than what they had originally predicted.

Israel Hayom reached out to a number of pollsters and asked them for insights into the process while focusing on their strong points – defining variables that will affect the final election results – rather than on predictions of the results themselves. Pollsters were asked about the projected voter turnout among supporters of each party and sector that comprise the major blocs; how certain respondents were that they would vote for the same party on Election Day that they picked in the polls; how pollsters handle the issue of undecided voters – those who intend to vote but aren't yet sure for whom; and what factors most affect Israeli voters' final decision.

Menachem Lazar, CEO of Panels Politics, who built his first election poll 31 years ago, thinks that Sept. 17 will see a lower voter turnout than the April election, when 68.5% of eligible voters cast ballots. He can already point to the one-fifth of his respondents who say they do not plan to vote, as well as another 10% who do not live in Israel. (Under Israeli law, private citizens living outside the country cannot cast absentee ballots.)

"This time, again, the number of people in the Arab sector who say they do not intend to vote is much higher than the number who say they do not intend to vote among the general population," Lazar says. In April, only 49.2% of eligible Arab voters cast ballots.

"In the last election, supporters of Blue and White were 5% less likely to vote than the general population of voters. On the other hand, the number of haredi voters who say they intend to vote is much higher than among the general public. If there is low voter turnout overall, the haredi parties will be the first to benefit, so their proportionate strength will increase," Lazar explains.

Lazar also looked at how sure voters were about their choices. He discovered that haredi voters were most certain for whom they would be voting, followed by Likud supporters; supporters of Yisrael Beytenu; Blue and White; Yamina; and the Democratic Union.

Lazar sees a serious problem for two parties when it comes to how certain voters are of their choice. The first is the Yamina (formerly the New Right) list. "On one hand, the nationalist-haredim have a hard time with the secular [Ayelet] Shaked as leader, and on the other, it's hard for the liberal religious to accept the dominance of [Bezalel Smotrich and [Rafi] Peretz."

The second such party – list, rather – is Labor-Gesher.

"In both cases, Labor and Yamina, the 'wavering' votes are wavering almost exclusively within the same blocs. Voters who say that they are voting Yamina now could wind up voting for the Likud, and voters who say right now that they'll vote for Labor-Gesher could eventually vote for Blue and White or the Democratic Union."

Professor Yitzhak Katz, CEO of the Maagar Mohot Institute, looked at another parameter that could indicate to what degree each party is holding onto its base from the previous election. He looked at how many supporters of each party planned to vote the same way and he, too, discovered that according to this parameter, Labor-Gesher is in trouble.

"Voter turnout will decide this election, because we're seeing virtually no movement between blocs. What will be most important is not who votes, but who doesn't."

"Only 27% of the people who voted for Labor last time say that they will vote for Labor this time. On the other hand, 32% of those who voted for Labor last time plan to vote for the Democratic Union this time, and 14% plan to vote for Blue and White. This definitely explains why Labor-Gesher is bobbing around near the minimum electoral threshold," Katz says.

However, according to Katz's findings, 70% of people who voted for Blue and White in April plan to vote for the party again, while 2% will be moving to Labor-Gesher, 3% to the Joint Arab List, 4% to Yisrael Beytenu, 4% to the Democratic Union, and 2% to Yamina.

What does this parameter show us when it comes to Yamina and the Likud?

"[Some] 65% of Likudniks will vote for the party again [on Sept. 17], 7% will move over to [Avigdor] Lieberman, 5% to Yamina, 4% to Blue and White, and 17% still aren't sure," Katz says.

"For Yamina – a list that includes two parties that ran separately in the last election – the situation is more complicated: 64% of people who voted for the New Right say they will vote for Yamina, but only 40% of those who voted for the United Right [Habayit Hayehudi and National Union alliance] say they will vote for Yamina."

Like Lazar, Katz also looked at many people who voted in April would be voting on Sept. 17, if not necessarily for the same party. He says that the results provide an indication of what kind of voter turnout can be expected for the different blocs. Both Katz and Lazar predict nearly zero movement from one bloc to another.

Katz found that 82% of Labor voters from April plan to vote on Sept. 17, compared to 74% of supporters of the Democratic Union and United Torah Judaism; 69% of Blue and White supporters; 68% of Yisrael Beytenu voters; 65% of Likud voters; 62% of Yamina voters; and 55% of supporters of the Arab parties.

Rafi Smith, head of Smith Consulting, offers interesting information about the source of Lieberman's strength. Despite the Likud's attempts to make him go away, his support in the polls has doubled from five seats in April to 10 seats or more in recent polls.

"Lieberman is getting about two seats from the Likud, two from Blue and White, and some from Yamina … and Kulanu," Smith explains.

Like his colleagues, Smith foresees a difficult election for Labor: "Polls show it losing two seats to the Democratic Union. That means they have a very low rate of die-hard support."

Smith doesn't provide numbers about the wavering votes for the two biggest parties – Likud and Blue and White – but he says that generally speaking, Blue and White supporters tend to be less definite.

"If there isn't any major event in the south, the reality there will have little influence on the election."

"What will determine the results is voter turnout. If all Israelis were to turn out and vote, it would be good for the Right. Demographically, the public has been trending right-ward for years. Low voter turnout would be bad for the Right. A 5% increase in voter turnout in the Arab sector would be enough to give the Left another seat," Smith says.

Smith has also found that supporters of Gesher, which joined up with Labor, and Kulanu (which joined the Likud), could split their votes among several parties.

"The profile of Gesher and Kulanu voters isn't one-dimensional, so there is no one party they are flocking to. We can find them in both blocs, in this party or in that party. In comparison, people who voted for the New Right or the United Right [in April], who found a joint home in Yamina, are more homogenous – certainly closer to each other than Kulanu voters are to the Likud, or Gesher voters are to Labor," he says.

Smith is pessimistic about the prospects for the far-right Otzma Yehudit, which as of this week is still in the race.

"I think they will get about 70,000 votes. To pass the minimum threshold, you need 130,000-140,000 votes. That's an insane number of people, a little less than the population of Ramat Gan and much higher than the number of residents of Raanana or Kfar Saba. It's a daunting number. At least based on what the polls are telling us right now, it's hard to believe they'll make it."

Aside from voter turn-out and pure numbers, what can the pollsters tell us about the concerns of the undecided voters – not to mention Israeli voters in general? What issues will determine their final vote?

Professor Camil Fuchs, the veteran pollster for the Dialogue Institute, discussed the subject last week in a lecture at the Israeli Institute for Democracy. In his presentation, he revealed a new study conducted in July and August that collated the results of six polls conducted among 2,173 Jewish Israelis.

Fuchs did not ask which parties they intended to vote for. He asked which blocs they would be supporting: Right, center-left, religious-haredi, or Yisrael Beytenu. The results indicate that among Jewish voters, the right-wing/religious/haredi bloc is in a dead heat with the center-left/Yisrael Beytenu, with each winning 42% of the public's support. The Arabs could tip the scales, but Fuchs' survey did not include that sector, and in light of the low expected voter turnout, it's doubtful that will happen.

Fuchs found that the older Jewish Israelis were, the more likely they were to vote for the center-left.

"Young people lean much more to the Right. The two factors that are the best predictors are previous votes and how religious the voters are. In general, secular Israelis vote more for the Left and the religious vote more for the Right. Among secular Israelis, there is a difference between immigrants from the former Soviet Union, who lean much more toward the Right and Yisrael Beytenu, and the rest, who lean toward the Center and the Left."

Fuchs also analyzed voting according to location and, not surprisingly, found that support for the Right is stronger in Judea and Samaria, in southern Israel, and in Jerusalem. In central Israel and the greater Tel Aviv area, support for the Left is much higher.

Smith adds that "In places with high voter turnout by the religious and a high percentage of Mizrahi voters, you'll always have more right-wing votes. It doesn't matter if it's in the north, the center, or the south. On the other hand, secular Ashkenazi voters will vote less for the Right and more for the center-left.

"Likud voters say that security and defense issues clinch their votes. Voters on the Left say that social issues are what decide, but what really affects recent elections is the person who heads the party. In the past few elections and this coming one, the question was and is: yes or no to Bibi?"

Smith, Katz, and Lazar agree that at least for now, events on the Gaza border and the western Negev don't have too much of an effect on voters, who have apparently gotten used to the situation.

"Gaza has turned into a chronic problem," Lazar says. "So it has less of an effect on voters."

Katz thinks that "If there isn't any major event in the south, the reality there will have little influence on the election."

"In this election, like the last one, there's a strong personal element," Lazar says.

"Other than Netanyahu, the polls indicate that there are two personalities for whom people are voting, rather than their agendas: Ayelet Shaked in Yamina and Gabi Ashkenazi in Blue and White," Lazar adds.

Right now, the undecided or unsure comprise 15% to 25% of voters.

According to Fuchs, "Voter turnout will decide this election because we're seeing virtually no movement between blocs. What will be most important is not who votes, but who doesn't."

The post The pollsters' raw materials appeared first on www.israelhayom.com.

The poll, conducted by New Wave Research, shows that approximately one-third of the Russian speakers who voted for Blue and White in April will instead be voting for the Likud or Yisrael Beytenu in the Sept. 17 do-over election.

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In the April Knesset election, votes from Russian-speaking Israelis gave Blue and White three of the 35 seats the party won. The findings from the new poll could mean the loss of at least one seat for the party in September.

In contrast to the Likud, where Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has proudly entrusted the party's Russian-language election campaign to MK Robert Ilatov, who was formerly Yisrael Beytenu leader Avigdor Lieberman's right-hand man, and Olympic athlete Alex Averbuch, Blue and White has made a single member of its list – Yoel Razvozov, who holds the 18^th slot on the party list – responsible for outreach to Russian-speakers.

The New Wave poll includes another interesting finding – that one-eighth of Russian-speaking voters say that if Razvozov were higher on the list, there would be more chance of their voting for Blue and White. This means that if Razvozov were moved up and Russian speakers voted accordingly, Blue and White could regain the seat it is currently in danger of losing.

However, one-fifth of the Russian speakers who voted for Blue and White said that if Razvozov were to leave Blue and White and join Yisrael Beytenu, they would be more likely to vote for Yisrael Beytenu, compared to one-eighth of Russian speakers who said if Razvozov left Blue and White for the Likud, they would be more likely to vote Likud.

Razvozov said that Blue and White must not "lose the Russian sector."

"We are and will continue to be an important player, because Russian speakers know that we can bring about change. This isn't the first time pollsters have asked [respondents] about me. I've gotten many serious offers from [other] parties, but I'm an inseparable part of Blue and White," he said.

"Some claim that the game for the Russian vote is between Yisrael Beytenu and the Likud, and I helped bring Blue and White good results from the Russian field in the last election. As far as it depends on me, I'll do everything I can, because we are an alternative to the party in power," Razvozov said.

The post Blue and White worried Russian voters might defect in September appeared first on www.israelhayom.com.