According to the official, Tehran faces only difficult choices because it risks a harsh Israeli counterattack and simply cannot absorb more military losses like those sustained during the 12-Day War. The official noted that despite this restraint, some voices within Iran still believe a response to Israel's actions is necessary, perhaps executed by the Houthis or through a terrorist attack targeting Jewish or Israeli interests in Europe or Latin America.

This cautious assessment stands in contrast to the combative statements coming from Tehran, even before the death of Hezbollah Chief of Staff Haytham 'Ali Tabataba'i, and earlier reports that Iran had largely replenished the surface-to-surface missile stockpile lost during Operation Rising Lion. For example, a report in The New York Times disclosed that Iran is enhancing its air defense network and planning for a massive launch capability of up to 2,000 simultaneous missiles should another conflict erupt. The Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps previously published a statement declaring, "The Axis of Resistance and Hezbollah have the right to respond at the appropriate time, and it will be a painful blow".

Esmaeil Baghaei, the Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman, stated that Israel's behavior is worsening regional security and will result in serious consequences. Though Iran is working to rebuild its air defense capabilities – which were nearly destroyed in the war – and reportedly received aid from China, Israeli estimates suggest this will not significantly challenge Israel's absolute control of Iranian airspace.

The critical decision regarding a Hezbollah response rests with the ayatollahs in Tehran, not Beirut. Hezbollah's standing has suffered significantly following the losses incurred during the pager operation and the elimination of its leadership, including Hassan Nasrallah, who ranks second only to Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

Iran's hesitation is driven by multiple factors : First, since Israel delivered severe blows to Hezbollah, the Houthis, and Iran itself, another conflict of that magnitude is unacceptable. Second, the international environment, marked by full US support and partial European support for Israel, eliminates the possibility of helpful diplomatic maneuvers. Third, Iran is experiencing a particularly dire economic and infrastructural crisis, characterized by rampant inflation, currency collapse, a severe fuel shortage, frequent power outages, and a water crisis. In fact, the severity of the water crisis led President Masoud Pezeshkian to propose evacuating Tehran and relocating to a temporary capital.

Tehran is currently in its sixth consecutive drought year and recorded its driest autumn of the century, reporting "zero drops of rain". After the first 55 days of the current water year, water reserves had hit a 60-year low.

Contacted via social media, S., a Tehran resident, described having running water for only a few hours each day, dangerously poor water quality causing widespread diseases and infections, and mineral water sold at exorbitant prices in stores and markets. The resident added that while authorities have discussed bringing in water tankers from the north, no substantial action has been taken.

Northern Iran is simultaneously battling a major ecological catastrophe – a fire that has been burning for weeks in the Hyrcanian Forests, a "World Heritage Site" and the world's oldest living ecosystem. Iranian forestry experts are placing blame on the government, alleging negligence and intentional, malicious damage to the forest lands. The fire has resulted in large clouds of smoke, ash, and soot, which are causing severe air pollution.

This compounding crisis has given rise to the idea of Iran's "quiet disintegration" as a functional state. Sogand Fakheri, an Iran Desk analyst at the Jerusalem Center for Security and Foreign Affairs, said that "quiet disintegration" is a concept frequently discussed in Iranian domestic media.

"However, it seems the disintegration is not quiet, the government is not functioning, and the repeated focus on war propaganda and the 12-Day War either ignores or at least belittles the situation in the country," she elaborated, adding, "The fires and the funds being wasted in the wrong places also hurt the citizens' standard of living and even put them in real danger." As economic, social, and environmental hardships continue to mount, internal reports of local distress and protests surface from Iran, but these are often suppressed from the wider public due to media censorship and restrictions. This raises the question of whether the institutional and social decay is happening "quietly" because it is not being fully expressed – or because parts of the system are struggling to recognize it in real-time.

Sagiv Asulin, a senior researcher at the JCFA and an Iran expert, accounted for the contrast between the aggressive rhetoric and Iran's domestic paralysis : "The Iranians are the world champions in word games, negotiation, and haggling in the Middle Eastern and global bazaar, so there is a big difference between what they say and what will materialize. They are willing to warm the atmosphere with belligerent statements, but in their current condition, they might play a game on the edge, but nothing beyond that, and therefore the answer to the question of whether they will initiate an actual attack – is almost certainly no".

Asulin confirmed that Iran is working hard to rebuild its air defense and missile stockpiles because missiles are the most effective weapons they have, especially since the nuclear project was severely damaged. The researcher added that Iran recognizes this as Israel's soft underbelly and plans to reinforce it for the next conflict.

Ultimately, both Asulin and the senior official agree that Iran intends to delay the next conflict for as long as possible to allow itself time to recover, wait for more favorable conditions, and improve its readiness.

The post The ayatollahs' dilemma: Why Tehran fears another 12-day war appeared first on www.israelhayom.com.

The historic flag of Iran – the Lion and Sun flag serving as a symbol for supporters of the exiled Shah and opponents of the regime – is being raised openly in public spaces. In an unusual incident at a Tehran metro station, two Iranian men dressed in military uniforms were filmed waving the historic flag. Raising the flag in a central location like the metro represents a clear act of rebellion against the Islamic Republic, especially when performed by individuals identified with the security system. The viral videos from this event are going viral in Iran.

A colonel-ranked officer (according to Iranian sources, retired), Ebrahim Agai Kumazani, came out publicly in a video against the ayatollah regime. He denounced the Iranian regime as an "unholy and false regime" with no connection to Iran's history or land. He accused the regime of treason, theft, fraud, creating crises, and spreading poverty and crime. The colonel expressed public support for Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi and called on the Iranian people "to rise up" and act to save Iran. The officer presented himself as a "soldier in the people's army."

Hours after Colonel Kumazani's video started circulating on networks, another officer, Colonel Sajjad Azadeh from Iran's ground forces, presented himself in another video as someone reinforcing the move against the regime. He also declared he is "a soldier of Iran's national army, and a soldier of the Lion and Sun flag." He promised that in the coming days "major events are on the way." The colonel announced that soon the rebels "will tear apart the darkness of lies, fraud, and occupation." This officer's joining the open call indicates a division trend permeating to the heart of the security system.

A new video surfaced in recent hours exposing an unprecedented level of defiance – three soldiers dressed in Iranian military uniforms were filmed burning pictures of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, while shouting "Long live the Shah!" and pledging allegiance to the Lion and Sun flag. This act symbolizes deep rebellion and represents support for the national cooperation campaign launched by Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi. The campaign encourages mass desertions against the Islamist regime.

In the modern era, the possibility cannot be ignored that the videos circulating in Iran and stirring much unrest are AI videos, perhaps cooked up by a foreign intelligence agency to create unrest in Iran. However, the unrest in Iran is linked to the most severe crisis Iran has faced in recent decades – the water crisis, a truly critical and pressing issue. According to the latest released data, water reserves in Tehran are sufficient for only two weeks, and rare statements were heard from Iran's president about the possibility of "evacuating Tehran within a month." This unprecedented crisis is leading Iran to growing tensions, with the public pointing an accusing finger at the regime and its failed plans.

The possibility that the regime cannot provide water to its residents raises the question: Can a regime that cannot provide a basic existential need survive? As commentators note, a regime feeling the ground shaking beneath its feet might "flee forward" and open an external confrontation or war to try to unite the angry Iranian public around it.

Either way, the lethal combination of internal crises (water and economy) with what appears to be public calls for rebellion from within the military system indicates the Tehran regime stands at a decision point where widespread uprising is no longer a theoretical scenario but a real possibility, strengthening daily.

The post Will Iran's military turn on its leaders? appeared first on www.israelhayom.com.

"In this brutal summer heat, you don't even have clean, cold water to give your children. Such hypocrisy. Such disdain for the Iranian people. To live like this is not fair to you. It's not fair to your children," Netanyahu attacked the regime.

Video: PM Netanyahu speaks to the Iranians about water / Credit: GPO

Netanyahu, who launched Operation Rising Lion in June to dismantle Iran's nuclear program, contrasted Iran's struggles with Israel's achievements in water management. He proudly declared, "Israel is the #1 recycler of water in the world. We recycle 90% of our waste-water. And we lead the world in desalination." He recalled launching a Telegram channel in Farsi nearly a decade ago to share water management techniques, which attracted 100,000 Iranians almost immediately. This, he said, reflects both Iran's thirst for water and its people's yearning for freedom.

Netanyahu painted a vivid picture of a revitalized Iran, free from tyranny. He invited Iranians to imagine water skiing on the Karaj Dam, strolling along a restored Farahzad river, and seeing lush trees in Niavaran and Darband. He also spoke of reviving Urmia lake, a once-stunning natural wonder in northwest Iran. These visions, he argued, are achievable with Israel's expertise, which would be shared the moment Iran achieves freedom. "The moment your country is free, Israel's top water experts will flood into every Iranian city bringing cutting-edge technology and know-how." He added, "Well, all of this is not a dream. This can be your reality. But instead of making this a reality, your dictators impose tyranny and poverty upon you - just as they impose war on us," Netanyahu lamented. "For 46 years, you have been denied the most basic human rights. The right to express yourselves freely. To write, speak and sing whatever you please."

Netanyahu condemned Iran's regime for prioritizing foreign conflicts over domestic needs. Netanyahu asserted that Tehran's leaders have squandered hundreds of billions of dollars on groups like Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis, neglecting hospitals, schools, and infrastructure. He decried the regime's repression, holding up books by Iranian dissidents forced to publish abroad as evidence of stifled voices. "You, the descendants of Cyrus the Great, deserve much more," he said.

In a call to action, Netanyahu urged Iranians to take to the streets, demand justice, and protest tyranny. He assured them of global support, stating, "I stand with you. Israel stands with you. The entire free world stands with you."

"Take to the streets. Demand justice. Demand accountability. Protest tyranny. Build a better future for your families and for all Iranians. Do not let these fanatic mullahs ruin your lives for a minute longer," Netanyahu said.

PM Netanyahu to the people of Iran:
As our founding father, Theodor Herzl, said of the Jewish state, "If you will it, it is no dream"

And I say to you, "if you will it, a free Iran is no dream."
Now is the time for action.
Now is the time to fight for freedom.

Iran Baraye Irani pic.twitter.com/0piWqVO8EJ

— Prime Minister of Israel (@IsraeliPM) August 12, 2025

He further made a prediction that the "cruel, callous, and cowardly" regime in Tehran will not last long, promising a future where Iran's economy thrives, water flows abundantly, and children live joyously. Quoting Theodor Herzl, he concluded, "If you will it, it is no dream," adapting the phrase to inspire Iranians: "Iran Baraye Irani" – Iran for Iranians.

The post Take to the streets: PM vows to help Iranians get water once freed appeared first on www.israelhayom.com.