For the Trump camp, this was significant. The Des Moines Register poll is considered one of the most reliable in Iowa, which many look to during the primaries as well as later on, to get an idea of the political atmosphere in the state. Its pollsters, in contrast to the others in the state, predicted that Trump would win the 2016 election by seven points. And they were right: Trump ended up winning the Hawkeye State by nine points.

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Trump has shot up in this most recent poll and now leads his Democratic opponent Joe Biden 48% to 41%. This lead is beyond that of a margin of error, which stands at 3.4 points. Moreover, Trump's spike in the polls comes as Joni Ernst, the Republican senator from Iowa, is also pulling ahead of her Democratic rival Theresa Greenfield, now leading her by four points. In addition to the encouraging news from Iowa, Trump continues to maintain a statistical tie with Biden according to a Washington Post-ABC News poll, which also shows Biden's lead shrinking in Pennsylvania.

The Des Moines Register poll is an anomaly in the state, where other polls point to a tie between the two candidates and is a reflection of independent voters deciding to lean right and cast their ballot for the president. And if they're doing that in Iowa, they may do the same in other Midwestern states – just as they did in 2016, when they handed Trump a victory at the very last minute.

This is the scenario that Biden dreads and Trump is betting on.  The Democratic candidate can take solace in knowing there are far fewer undecided voters this time around and that support is greater for him than it was for Hillary Clinton in 2016 in the Midwest, as well as nationally, although the latter is irrelevant to the US election system.) The bottom line is that anything can happen, and maybe Trump is gaining momentum at precisely the right time, while Biden, on the other hand, is losing steam.

Over the weekend, the Trump campaigned announced it would cancel plans to hold an Election Day party on Tuesday night at the Trump International Hotel in Washington, with the president instead likely to take in the results from the White House. While the move was immediately interpreted by the city's Democrats as a sign that Trump was feeling down and out, it seems they forgot the party would have violated the restrictions in place on mass gatherings due to the coronavirus outbreak. Trump was also forced to cancel plans in Nevada last week when that state's Democratic governor refused to allow them to hold a mass rally, leading the president's team to hold one of the rallies on the Arizona border instead.

Trump is optimistic – despite all the restrictions, despite all their attempts to sabotage him, and despite the fact that people are grasping onto poll averages that are not in his favor. Yes, Trump is optimistic, some would even say very optimistic. The polls point to Biden emerging as the victor, but four years ago, they pointed to Clinton. Truth be told, Trump is in a relatively good place. According to one calculation, he is poised to garner 280 electoral votes and win the race, and that's even if he unable to win in Michigan and Wisconsin, which he won with a razor-thin margin in 2016, this time around. Trump will win 280 electoral votes as long as he succeeds in winning in the rest of the states he won in 2016, chief among them Pennsylvania and Florida. The polls indicate this scenario is most definitely possible since in some of these states, he and Biden are in a statistical tie.

Biden stays close to home

If the Independents continue to skew in his favor, and if the Republicans continue to show up for their party, given the passion out in the field, we could in fact see a victory with 280 electorates. One mustn't forget that although Biden is seen as the harbinger of change in many states, in Pennsylvania and in the Midwest, he is seen mainly as the man who will bring about the eradication of the fracking and coal mining industries, and in the minds of independent voters, that is to his major detriment.

All thisת along with the fact that Trump is still seen as better suited to managing the economy once a vaccine for the coronavirus is found, mean Trump is well situated to garner 270 electorates, if not more, and he is determined to use the final days in the lead up to the election to create optimistic momentum.

The president has been holding rally after rally where he assures Americans that the country's golden days still lie ahead while repeatedly warning that Biden will drag America into "endless foreign wars." At every rally, by the way, the crowd goes wild whenever he mentions the pro-Israel steps he has taken, including moving the US Embassy to Jerusalem and recognizing Israeli sovereignty over the Golan Heights. But Trump main focus at the rallies is on warning voters that Biden will destroy their industries. In Michigan, he told attendees, "A vote for Biden is a vote to extinguish, demolish, and wipe out Michigan's auto industry" while noting he had brought in factories and prevented others from leaving the state. In Pennsylvania and the rest of the Midwest, the president warned Biden would "destroy" the oil industry.

On Sunday, the second to last day before the election, Trump had rallies planned in no fewer than five states: Michigan, Iowa, North Carolina, Georgia, and Florida. The last event, in Florida, where he is also a resident, is expected to kick off at 11:30 p.m. local time. Biden, in contrast, has decided to stay in Pennsylvania, just a stone's throw from his home state of Delaware, for the entire day.

Over 90 million US citizens have already cast their vote, meaning almost half of all registered voters in all 50 states and some two-thirds of the total number of ballots cast in 2016. Most states have already reported record-breaking turnout in the early voting stage. Naturally, the million-dollar question that must be asked is: Who does this benefit? In the coronavirus era, early voting models are no longer relevant, and because early voting is so widespread, no pollster is willing to say who they believe has gained from the phenomenon outright.

At his drive-in rallies, Biden draws a few hundred, and sometimes only a few dozen, cars. Trump draws tens of thousands of people. I have been to his rallies. The people love him. They know he is not responsible for the coronavirus. They know he did good things for the economy, they know his heart is in the right place, and most importantly, they know that while he may talk and tweet, he also takes action.

And so Trump carries on with his crazy process, as one man entering the fray and taking on everyone on his own. As far as the atmosphere on the street is concerned, and the number of Trump masks that abound regardless of Halloween, Trump has won. And that is true even in the country's Democratic capital.

At the airport in Washington on Sunday, two passengers stood next to me in line to rent a car; one a lawyer, the other working for an insurance agency, both proudly donning Trump face masks.

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"He's good for the economy, and he's good for America," John, the lawyer from New York, not exactly the reddest of states, tells me. "I'm convinced he's going to win because ultimately, you want a president that will bring the receipts," he says.

"Biden is the worst candidate the Democrats could have offered, while Trump is Trump. I just hope that after the election, the Democrats will be able to lose with dignity. America can't go on with this division for long," he said, summing up what many have said about Biden. They're not turned off by him like they were with Clinton, but they don't hold him in high regard either. Trump, on the other hand, is appreciated, on both sides of the aisle.

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A reporter for the right-wing news site Townhall posted a video of a Black Lives Matter activist spray-painting the words "Free Palestine" on the driveway of Beth Hillel Temple, a Reform synagogue.

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The vandalism took place amid the protests and riots that erupted Kenosha after a Black man, Jacob Blake, 29, was shot seven times in the back by police on Sunday during an arrest. Blake is in critical condition, his lawyer told NPR.

Rabbi Dena Feingold of Beth Hillel said she felt the vandalism wasn't representative of the protests.

"We are advocates for justice for all oppressed people. We support the movement for black lives, and we know that one person with a can of spray paint does not speak for an entire cause," Feingold said.

"We pray for Jacob Blake and decry the vigilante murders that took place a block from our synagogue two nights ago. Our call is for justice and peace in our community and around the world," the rabbi said.

On Wednesday, the Jewish Community Relations Council of the Milwaukee Jewish Federation expressed solidarity with the black community and called for unity.

"We believe that all must stand united to rid our communities of systemic racism and its toxic effects because it puts black lives at risk, including black and brown Jewish lives, and harms us all," the organization told JNS in a statement.

"Our pursuit of justice is guided by the Jewish principle of pikuah nefesh, which places the sanctity of life above all else. Government policies, practices and policing must be guided by this shared value."

Reprinted with permission from JNS.org.

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The eight-day trip which concluded Monday was organized by the Milwaukee Jewish Federation.

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Republican Assembly Speaker Robin Vos says the trip allowed for an exchange of ideas and educational experiences.

The 12-member Assembly delegation included both Republican and Democratic leaders.

The group met with elected and civic leaders from Israel and attended educational sessions on water technology, infrastructure, business, education, and politics.

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US House of Representatives Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.), who led a delegation of 31 Republicans to Israel this week, echoed such realism, telling Jewish News Syndicate that he believes it's not his job to "pick a solution for the conflict."

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"The world is constantly changing. Look at Lebanon. Look at Syria. Things are always in flux in these areas, so how can we choose a solution now without knowing what's going to happen in a few years?" he posed.

McCarthy's comments come amid a larger push to re-evaluate the long-standing policy of a two-state solution. The Trump administration, which has not yet unveiled its own peace plan, has broken with the consensus and so far has not endorsed a two-state solution. This past week also saw 21 right-wing Israeli Knesset members, including two deputy ministers, tell Congress that they view the establishment of a Palestinian state as "far more dangerous to Israel than BDS."

McCarthy pointed to the 2005 disengagement from Gaza as an example of how solutions that look promising at one moment can turn dangerous very quickly.

"The idea looked good at the time, but then Hamas took over, and now we have missiles falling in Israel," he said. "I would not tell Israel, 'Here is the solution,' but would rather give Israel whatever it needs for its security."

Other Republicans in the delegation echoed the minority leader's stance.

Rep. Bryan Steil (R-Wisc.) said that "all we should do is help Israel negotiate from a position of strength."

Similarly, Rep. Denver Riggleman (R-Va.), who has a background in air force intelligence, said "it's up to Israel and [the Palestinians] to find the solutions to the conflict. The United States must step back and simply support Israel's right to exist and to secure itself."

He continued, by saying "there is no easy fix" to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and asked rhetorically, "Who am I to tell Israel what to do?"

Rep. Clay Higgins (R-La.) said the issues of the conflict run deeper than just borders.

"I would never suggest dividing Chicago to end the troubles stemming from cultural differences and economic disparities in different parts of the city," he said. "No matter where you draw the map, someone will be ticked off."

Issues related to the land and the conflict, he said, run deeper than anything that can be solved "in a political solution drawn up in a map room."

'There is no trust between the two sides'

Not all Republican members of the delegation are ready to give up on a two-state solution.

Rep. William Timmons (R-SC) said the situation in Gaza is preventing progress on a two-state solution and not enabling negotiations to move forward.

He explained that while he was disappointed that Abbas did not agree to meet with the Republican delegation, after meeting with PA Prime Minister Mohammed Shtayyeh, he supports President's Trump effort to reach the ultimate deal.

"We are most certainly further away from resolving the conflict than ever before, and there is no trust between the two sides," said Timmons. "But it is still a worthy effort."

Similarly, Ron Estes (R-Kan.) related to JNS that the Palestinian leadership the delegation met with in Ramallah seems to "adamantly want peace," and he believes that the two-state plan "is the correct one."

Estes acknowledged that "there are thousands of years of complicated history that needs to be sorted through," and that it "will take time."

Israel also hosted a Democratic delegation of 41 congressional members, led by US House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer (D-Md.), which arrived on Aug. 9, which overlapped earlier this week for a couple of days with the Republican contingent, bringing nearly 16% of the House together in Israel this summer.

For their part, Democratic lawmakers have been divided on a resolution in the House to reaffirm a two-state solution.

Despite the bipartisan support for Israel expressed by this symbolic act, there does seem to be growing disparity between the parties regarding the best way for the United States to approach the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. While the Democrats staunchly support the two-state solution, it is now clear that many in the Republican Party, including its leadership, are beginning to question the relevance of that plan.

Reprinted with permission from JNS.org.

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