Taliban leader Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar has arrived in Kabul for talks with other Afghan leaders to discuss creating a new 'inclusive' government, an unnamed Taliban official told local news outlets Saturday, almost a week after the militants took over the capital.

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The former foes are locked in difficult talks for a coalition government as pressure mounts on all parties to avert a renewed civil war.

The Taliban and the inner circle of former Afghan President Ashraf Ghani worked together – through an intricate web of connections and relationships on the ground – to avert a bigger war at the gates of Kabul last week.

Taliban leaders, former figures in the Ghani government, and former Northern Alliance commanders dispersed between Pakistan and Afghanistan have made progress in talks on forming a transitional government in Kabul. One source in contact with key Northern Alliance figures visiting the Pakistani capital of Islamabad even painted an optimistic picture of the backchannel talks that extended from Panjshir to Kabul, Islamabad, Doha, and Washington.

This comes with two parallel developments. Taliban commanders have resisted calls from hardline elements to declare a unilateral government by the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan. At the same time, Ahmad Massoud, leader of the National Resistance Front of Afghanistan, met representatives of the Taliban in Panjshir, the seat of legendary former anti-Soviet warlord Ahmad Shah Massoud.

Massoud and most of the former Northern Alliance commanders and members of the previous government in Kabul have also refrained so far from declaring unilateral steps such as a government in exile, despite a flurry of contacts seeking legal opinion on such a move.

The talks are underway, largely far from the glare of the international media, which remains focused on the disturbing images from around the Kabul airport, and the heart-wrenching stories of journalists, women activists, and Afghans who worked with international forces – all of whom question the Taliban's narrative of moderation.

While in talks with the Taliban, Massoud has simultaneously called for the West to support his forces in Panjshir, an area in northern Afghanistan the Taliban has spared so far and is now the focus of anti-Taliban activities.

The Northern Alliance resisted the Taliban for much of the 1990s from Panjshir but failed to defeat the Taliban until the United States and NATO extended support after Sept. 11, 2001. The Alliance merged into successive Afghan governments after November 2001, and its commanders have been in power until Ghani fled the country last week.

Should the talks for a power-sharing deal collapse, there are serious doubts whether anti-Taliban forces in Panjshir or other former Northern Alliance commanders can hold back the Taliban. The same, however, is also true for the Taliban, which although powerful enough to control large swathes of Afghanistan may be unable to completely stamp out resistance.

Both the Northern Alliance and Taliban are mujahideen, representatives of an extremist version of Islam that has plagued Afghanistan for the past four decades and was instrumental in scuttling Western attempts at modernizing Afghan society. Many Afghan critics see both as two sides of the same coin. The Western-backed former Northern Alliance commanders were unsuccessful in translating unprecedented international support into enduring change in Afghanistan, mainly because they shared many of the regressive policies of the Taliban, especially in terms of women's rights, education, and government.

Before Sept. 11, the Northern Alliance was backed by Iran, India, and Russia, while the Taliban received backing from Pakistan, Persian Gulf states, and the US. The deck has been rearranged multiple times in the twenty years since 2001. Currently, the situation is murky at best. Most of Afghanistan's neighbors have little appetite for a reenactment of the proxy war of the 1990s.

A lot is at stake in the clandestine trilateral talks underway between former Northern Alliance commanders, Massoud's faction in Panjshir, and the Taliban. A group of Alliance commanders has been in the Pakistani capital since Aug. 15, and announced plans to extend its stay, raising hopes for a power-sharing agreement.

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The entire opposition to the Taliban has landed in Pakistan on Monday in a significant move for Afghanistan's future, as fresh details on the spectacular turn of events in Kabul over the weekend paint a picture of widespread disgruntlement within former President Ashraf Ghani's government leading to his downfall and eventual escape from the country.

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The almost peaceful takeover of Kabul and key Afghan cities, lack of Taliban reprisals against pro-government elements in seized territories, and minimal combat and displacement of civilians, all are signs that strengthen speculation that deposed Afghan president's inner circle might have helped ease him out and – at least indirectly – ensure that Taliban moved in with minimal bloodshed.

All is not lost, yet: a delegation of top Afghan politicians that fought the Taliban in the 1990s – in the now-defunct Northern Alliance – are in Islamabad to explore the possibility of a power-sharing agreement and a transitional government. The delegation include speaker Ulusi Jirga Mir Rehman Rehmani, Salah-ud-din Rabbani, Mohammad Yunus Qanooni, Ustad Mohammad Karim Khalili, Ahmad Zia Massoud and Ahmad Wali Massoud (both immediate family members of legendary warlord Ahmad Shah Massoud, Abdul Latif Pedram, and Khalid Noor. They were all allies of the deposed president but now seek an inclusive transitional government that Ghani delayed for months despite American and Pakistani prodding.

This Afghan delegation is expected to depart for Doha in the next few hours to meet with the representatives of the Taliban political office in Qatar.

This delegation's visit to Pakistan and expected meeting with Taliban officials in Qatar represents a last-ditch effort to prevent a widescale eruption of a civil war reminiscent of the 1990s, pitching the Taliban and the mujahideen warlords opposed to it. There are indications that Pakistan is engaging Iran and Russia to preempt a situation where Tehran and Moscow could be dragged into supporting their old proxies in the Northern Alliance in a renewed conflict. Tehran, Moscow, and New Delhi backed the Northern Alliance in the 1990s against the Taliban which was widely seen as being backed by Pakistan, the United States, and Gulf allies.

In Islamabad, officials are deflecting questions about extending recognition to a Taliban government, if one is declared. "It is premature to discuss this, and the international community is assessing the situation," a senior Pakistani official said in a background briefing. "Pakistan is in step with our partners in the international community on the evolving situation in Afghanistan."

Despite the alarm over the Taliban's swift seizure of Kabul and Afghan territories, there are some positive signs that diplomats in Islamabad, Kabul, Doha, and Washington are trying to build on to prevent an Afghan civil war. The Taliban are interested in a relationship with the United States and eye international recognition. Some of the early incidents of human rights violations in the Taliban's campaign last week have given way to what appears to be some restraint, in a calculated move to avoid bad international publicity.

The Taliban has so far avoided announcing a unilateral government in Kabul, possibly to give a chance to backchannel diplomacy to clinch a deal for a power-sharing arrangement. These early signs give hope that lack of bloodshed so far can be translated into first steps toward stability in a wartorn nation. If these efforts fail, a resumption of civil war means a wider proxy conflict that will rearrange the regional chessboard for years to come.

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When Pakistani and Israeli military officers join their international partners on Monday in exercises in the Black Sea, it will be part of the growing footprint of venues and drills where the two countries indirectly cooperate despite not entering formal diplomatic relations. It is part of a growing trend where Israeli, Arab, and Muslim militaries find themselves quietly working together in multilateral exercises facilitated by Western partners.

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Officers from Israel and eight Muslim-majority nations join the United States-led and NATO-dominated Sea Breeze 2021 military exercises that kick off in the Black Sea, in the largest version of the drills since they started in 1997, co-hosted by Ukraine. Over 5,000 personnel, 32 ships, 40 aircraft, and 18 commando teams from 32 countries are taking part.

This military event conceals a diplomatic success. The presence of Israeli officers with counterparts from Arab and Muslim nations defeats predictions that events like the Gaza-Israel conflict last month could derail cooperation between the Jewish state and major Arab and Muslim nations. Five of the eight Muslim militaries represented in Sea Breeze – Albania, Egypt, Morocco, Turkey, and the United Arab Emirates – have diplomatic relations with Israel. Senegal, Tunisia, and Pakistan do not, yet. [Other militaries in Sea Breeze exercises include: the United States, Ukraine, Britain, Australia, Brazil, Bulgaria, Canada, Denmark, Estonia, France, Georgia, Greece, Italy, Japan, Latvia, Lithuania, Moldova, Norway, Poland, Romania, Spain, South Korea, and Sweden].

Pakistani and Israeli personnel meet again after nine years in the Black Sea. They were last part of Sea Breeze 2012, along with the UAE.

Israel's interaction with Arab and Muslim militaries is yet to expand but it no longer raises eyebrows. Israel, Turkey, and Azerbaijan have trained in the past, and security ties with Egypt and Jordan are robust.
Israeli, Pakistani, and Emirati pilots have flown together in the Red Flag air force drills in the US in 2015, with the Emirati and Israeli pilots training again in Greece in April 2021.

Last week, a Pakistani naval ship, PNS Zulfiquar (FFG-251), the lead ship of the F-22P Zulfiquar-class guided-missile frigates deployed to the Red Sea, was in the vicinity of Israeli territorial waters in the Aqaba port, joining the Royal Jordanian Naval Forces in Jordan's centennial celebrations, which included a joint drill in the area.
But the venues where Pakistani and Israeli military representatives cross paths have multiplied in recent years, especially after the 2005 first formal Pakistan-Israel foreign-minister level meeting between Silvan Shalom and Khurshid Kasuri in Istanbul.

The chances of Pakistani and Israeli military representatives bumping into each other at military installations in Turkey, Azerbaijan, and China are high. Add UAE and Bahrain to the list. Both Gulf states are developing ties with Israel and enjoy strong security relationships with Pakistan.

The Shalom-Kasuri meeting of 2005 was followed by steps like waiving import licenses to boost trade between Israel and Pakistan. But the relationship could not move forward, mainly because of Pakistani inward focus on turmoil in its neighborhood, with Afghanistan, India, and Gulf tensions with Iran.

The current Pakistani political climate has regressed further with the dominance of populist politics, allowing Hamas- and Iran-inspired misinformation to flood Pakistani cyberspace, particularly around the time of signing of Abraham Accords last year. This could have been part of organized information operations to preempt a Pakistan-Israel move.

But Pakistan has largely been a moderate state and there is a growing realization in influential policy circles, civilian and military, that relations between wider Middle East's two nuclear-weapons states are important for regional peace and security.

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