After Israel finishes operations in Gaza and neutralizes (diplomatically or militarily) Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Houthis in Yemen, a strategic partnership with the strategically important Kingdom of Saudi Arabia would be possible.

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Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states, such as the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain, are quietly hoping Israel defeats Hamas – Islamist movements threaten their rule as well.

The key question is: what kind of relations would follow?

Will it follow the "warm peace" first tried with Azerbaijan and Central Asian countries and later the United Arab Emirates and Morocco - a paradigm of cooperative, open, and friendly relations -- or more of a "cold peace" like that between Israel and Jordan and Egypt?

Jordanians and Egyptians and their media are often virally anti-Semitic and anti-Israeli. Realpolitik and skepticism towards Islamist-infused populism keep their state apparatuses at peace with Israel. Nevertheless, Arab nationalists and the Muslim Brotherhood still propagate hatred towards Israel.

Cooperation between Islamic States and Israel need not be confined to begrudging acceptance. Co-existence and genuine tolerance can be found in Kazakhstan, Morrocco, Uzbekistan, Azerbaijan, and elsewhere.

Kazakhstan's nomadic and Soviet pasts have made it naturally less religious than other Islamic states. When independence arrived, its founding President, Nursultan Nazarbayev, worked to turn Kazakhstan into a "steppe Switzerland" through investment and diplomatic outreach.

To this end, Nazarbayev established the Congress of Leaders of World and Traditional Religions. It is held in Astana, Kazakhstan, every three years and began in 2003. Kazakhstan also allows freedom of worship to its small yet thriving Jewish community led by Chief Rabbi Yeshaya E. Cohen. It is even a place of pilgrimage to visit the grave of Rabbi Levi Yitzchak Schneerson.

The Muslim countries of Uzbekistan and Morocco have strong tourist industries and are business magnets. Morocco's tradition of religious tolerance is historically linked to the ruling monarchy, which claims its origins date back to the prophet Muhammad.  Azerbaijan has long cooperated with Israel, especially against Iran.

Saudi-Israeli cooperation is set to be a mix of both paradigms. On one hand, Salafi-dominated Saudi Arabia is unlikely to follow the patterns established by Morocco or Kazakhstan. However, Saudi Arabia has more reasons to offer good-faith cooperation.

The state-controlled media in Saudi Arabia portray Israel in a more positive light after peace negotiations began in order to justify the government's normalization in what could be a hostile reaction from some of the public. Paradoxically, Saudi Arabia's greater fear of a religious public may make genuine cooperation more likely.

Before the Gaza war broke out, Foreign Minister Eli Cohen said he was optimistic that a deal could be reached by early 2024. Salman agreed, saying normalization with Israel is getting "closer."

Nevertheless, the relationship between the two is at its core transactional, directed at deterring Iran.

The UAE, which normalized relations with Israel in 2020, provides hints at the future of Saudi-Israeli relations. Its observant, conservative Muslim society is tolerant of tourists who do not always share their social mores. Its diplomatic flexibility can be seen with the Abraham Accords, the I2U2 Group (India, Israel, the UAE, and the US), and collaboration with the US against Iran.

Normalization prompted the UAE to construct a new landmark promoting religious tolerance: the Abrahamic Family House. It contains a mosque, a church, and a synagogue.

One hopes that Riyadh will follow the paths blazed by the UAE, Morocco, Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, and Uzbekistan concerning relations with Israel. The shared commonality may be maintaining strong US ties.

Despite a complex diplomatic dance with Russia and China, Saudi Arabia, like other moderate Muslim states, seeks a strong US connection. It will continue leveraging its ties with the US to counter geopolitical threats at home and along its borders.

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The Southern Branch of the Islamic Movement in Israel chose a new leader in recent weeks that cements its continued role in the Israeli government.

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Sheikh Safwat Frij, who previously served as deputy head of the movement and based in Kafr Qasim, was elected over Sheikh Muhammad Salameh Hassan, a religious authority in the movement. He has publicly used harsh rhetoric, saying, "The people of Palestine are united from the river to the sea until the occupation disappears entirely."

Frij takes a softer approach and is seen as a power center behind Mansour Abbas, the head of the movement's United Arab List political Party, known in Israel by its Hebrew acronym Ra'am. Abbas had served as a deputy head of the movement along with Frij.

Shahin Sarsour, a veteran Arab political observer and former adviser to various Arab Knesset members, explains that it was expected that Frij would become the leader of the Islamic Movement and that Hamad Abu Daabes would step down after serving as faction head for 12 years.

"Safwat Frej is the strong man within the Islamic Movement, and he believes in the political path of Mansour Abbas that has paved the way for a new way to interact with the Israeli government," said Sarsour, who has worked as a political adviser for the United Arab List.

He predicts that the Islamic Movement will continue on its current trajectory with Abbas as the political face of the movement who is forging ahead pragmatically inside the government coalition.

"This new path by the Islamic Movement has popularity in the Arab sector," he added.

Shlomo Daskal, a researcher of Arab media and culture, and a contributor to the Israeli media publication The Seventh Eye, said in an interview that "Abbas continues to position himself as the political leader of Israeli Arabs."

"Frij is one of the big supporters of Abbas within the Islamic Movement," he said.

Another interesting point, noted Daskal, is that the center of power of the organization is now totally concentrated in Kafr Qasim, as Daabes was based in the Negev Desert in southern Israel among the Bedouin.

The pragmatic approach by Abbas involved joining the Israeli government and making conciliatory rhetoric in Hebrew. The Islamic movement has its roots within the Muslim Brotherhood.

Joining the government won the movement a generous budget allocation for the Arab sector. It will also have a say over how it is spent, strengthening its position within the Israeli-Arab community.

Hamas in the Gaza Strip is a more radical offshoot of the Muslim Brotherhood that regularly uses violence to achieve its goals. However, in other countries, including Israel, the movement utilizes more pragmatic political tactics.

Since 1996, the Islamic Movement in Israel split between northern and Southern Branches because of disagreement over whether to participate in national elections and enter the Knesset. The Northern Branch, led by Sheikh Raed Salah, is less pragmatic and takes more radical positions. The Israeli government outlawed the Northern Branch in 2015 as a direct result of its connection to Hamas.

Salah was released from prison in December after serving 17 months of a 28-month sentence for incitement to terrorism.

The Northern Branch criticizes Abbas' pragmatic approach

In a Jan. 18 interview on Yarmouk TV – a Jordanian Muslim Brotherhood channel – Salah criticized the Southern Branch's approach and said its participation in the government and Abbas's statements about the Jewish identity of Israel were incorrect policy on Islamic grounds.

According to a Middle East Media Research Institute (MEMRI) report of the interview, Salah said, "This is a slippery slope, to tell you the truth. This has dangerous significance, as we already feel. This has shocked everybody in our society – among Palestinians and in a more general context."

Salah continued: "It has become clear to us and to all the observers that joining this coalition was meant to drag those who committing this unfortunate mistake into the principle of 'give and take.' In other words, the coalition offered them some material benefits in exchange for positions or declarations that completely contradict our principles."

"I will go even further and say that I, personally, have never heard of a single person in all our Islamic and Arab history that dared to say such a thing," added Salah regarding the pragmatic approach of Abbas.

"The truth is that this is an unfortunate and distressing matter. I hope that the brothers in the United Arab List reconsider and adhere to the principles once again," he said, according to MEMRI.

Reacting to the criticism of Salah, Sarsour noted that "the Northern Branch of the Islamic Movement has always argued from an ideological standpoint against the Southern Branch's bending of its ideology for political interests."

"The Islamic Movement sees that its political party has achieved more than any other Arab party in the history of Israel, which has simply opposed the government but did not gain anything tangible for the Arab public," asserted Sarsour.

Regarding Salah's criticism of Abbas and the path chosen by the Southern Branch, Daskal pointed out that Salah respectfully expressed disagreement with Abbas but pointed out that he was mistaken.

Though Salah's deputy, Kamal Khatib, has used stronger language to criticize Abbas, Salah did not do likewise, continued Daskal.

"Many local observers of Arab Israeli politics say that Salah is the only politician that can effectively counter Abbas," he said, adding that Hadash and the rest of the Joint List are weaker than the United Arab List.

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Salah is a legendary figure in the Arab sector. He is seen as more honest and ideologically pure than Abbas and the Southern Branch, which is deemed more political.

For his part, Abbas is hoping that participation in the coalition government and tangible achievements for the Arab sector will gain it popularity and clout.

While both branches were once united, the difference from which path to follow to Islamize Israeli Arab society – a more antagonist, incitement-laden approach or a more pragmatic approach that plays by the system's rules.

The election of Frij points both to the continuation of the policy of the Southern Branch and the continuation of Abbas's political career, which has been putting a friendlier face on the Islamic Movement to the Jewish public.

Reprinted with permission from JNS.org.

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Algeria's decision last week to sever diplomatic ties with its neighbor, Morocco, puts the spotlight on the strengthening Israeli-Moroccan relations that were born out of the Abraham Accords.

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Professor Bruce Maddy-Weitzman, an expert on North Africa and senior fellow at Tel Aviv University's Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies, told JNS that Algeria and Morocco have been "geopolitical and ideological rivals for more than a half-century on the morrow of attaining independence."

The future of Spain's ex-colony, Western Sahara, has been the center of their rivalry since 1975, with Algeria supporting the Polisario independence movement and Morocco acting to incorporate the territory into the kingdom, he explained.

In December 2020, the US recognized Moroccan sovereignty over Western Sahara in return for Rabat normalizing relations with Jerusalem, as part of the series of normalization agreements between Israel and Arab states that were brokered by the Trump administration. Last month, Foreign Minister Yair Lapid visited Morocco to inaugurate the Israeli liaison office there, while revealing plans to open mutual embassies within months.

But last year's quid pro quo in the Abraham Accords process – unilateral US recognition of Moroccan sovereignty over the contested territory in return for Morocco's restoration of diplomatic relations with Israel – was highly upsetting to Algeria, Weitzman noted.

"Moroccan expressions of support for the radical Kabylian Amazigh independence movement in Algeria, done mostly to irritate the Algerians, are also part of the background to the Algerian decision to sever relations," he said.

Weitzman added, "Algeria has blamed the movement for the recent large-scale forest fires in Kabylia, in a transparent effort to divert criticism of the regime's failure to contain the fires."

At the same time, Sarah Feuer, an expert on Arab politics and fellow at The Washington Institute for Near East Policy, believes that Israel's role in the North African dispute is minor.

"Algeria was indeed dismayed at Morocco's decision to resume diplomatic relations with Israel, and more recently, Algeria criticized Morocco for advocating on Israel's behalf in gaining observer status in the African Union," she told JNS. "But ultimately the rupture of ties between Algeria and Morocco reflects a longstanding, locally driven hostility between these two states, principally over the Western Sahara, and an effort on the part of the Algerian regime to deflect attention away from a domestic political and economic crisis the state seems unable to resolve."

Lapid's statement in Morocco that Iran is working with Algeria to block Israeli observer status in the African Union upset the Algerians, and Israel replied in kind.

"Underpinning Algeria's militant stance are the regime's difficulties in renewing its legitimacy in the eyes of an angry and disillusioned public, which is showing signs of renewing the mass peaceful Hirak protest movement that shook the regime to its core in 2019," Weitzman said.

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An Israeli diplomatic source told AFP last week that Algeria "should focus on its own problems, serious economic problems especially, so its citizens can live the life they deserve, rather than trying to harm their neighbor and involve Israel in its disputes."

Algeria said August 24 that it cut ties with Morocco due to "hostile actions." Algerian Foreign Minister Ramtane Lamamra also accused Lapid of "senseless accusations and veiled threats." Lapid had expressed "worries about the role played by Algeria in the region." The Israeli source told AFP that Lamamra's allegations are "unfounded and without interest – they bring nothing new."

During Lapid's visit to Morocco, he raised concerns that Algeria was "getting close to Iran" and that it worked to prevent Israel from admission as an observer member of the African Union.

Yet Feuer said, "We should be careful not to overstate the Iranian issue here. It is true that Algeria – in contrast to Morocco – maintains relations with Iran. Still, neither Algiers' ties to Tehran nor Rabat's firm placement within the pro-West camp are new."

Reprinted with permission from JNS.org.

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Newly installed Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi celebrated the Taliban takeover of Afghanistan and the failure of the United States to leave smoothly after 20 years entrenched in the country, marking the beginning of what's likely to be a more aggressive stance there and on other fronts in the Middle East.

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American leaders have accused Iran of backing the Taliban in the fight against its military forces in Afghanistan. While a withdrawal was announced by the Biden administration earlier this year, what has happened over the course of the past few days was certainly not what they had in mind.

"America's military defeat and its withdrawal must become an opportunity to restore life, security and durable peace in Afghanistan," Raisi pronounced on Monday, according to Iran's state TV, reported Reuters.

Iran has had a complicated relationship with Afghanistan and the Taliban. The Shi'ite Muslim country shares a 560-mile border with mainly Sunni Muslim Afghanistan and hosts some 3.5 million Afghan refugees. In the late 1990s, Iran almost went to war with the Taliban-controlled Afghanistan after several Iranian diplomats were killed, and the Islamic Republic had cooperated with the United States early on in the invasion of Afghanistan in 2001 with intelligence support before relations deteriorated during the Bush administration.

Nevertheless, the embarrassment of the US military withdrawal from Afghanistan and the swift Taliban victory over the Western-backed government represents an opportunity for Iran to take a more defiant posture against an America on the retreat from the Middle East.

"The Islamic Republic of Iran believes that the reign of the will of the wronged people of Afghanistan has always created security and stability," said Raisi. "While consciously monitoring developments in the country, Iran is committed to neighborly relations."

Allies Iran, Hamas and Hezbollah have all come out praising the Taliban takeover of Afghanistan. They see it as a model for defeating the United States and Israel in the Middle East.

Raisi presented a cabinet of hardliners last week, including Gen. Ahmad Vahidi as interior minister. He is a former defense minister wanted by Interpol for his alleged role in the 1994 bombing of the AMIA Jewish cultural center in Buenos Aires that killed 85 and injured hundreds.

Meir Javedanfar, a lecturer on Iranian politics at IDC Herzliya in Israel, told JNS that the new Iranian government and its composition is a message to the international community that Iran will not be so forthcoming and as during the previous term of President Hassan Rouhani. "The latter was at least more accommodating rhetorically. But those days are over," he said.

Javedanfar sees Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei as being the impetus behind the new government.

In terms of what actions can be expected from the new government, Javedanfar predicted that "you could almost call it the Khamenei government; the people now in charge can be assumed to have been appointed directly from the leader himself."

As per the ongoing negotiations to revive the 2015 nuclear deal, he said it's too soon to speculate if this new government signals the end of the talks. "I do think the composition of the new government means Iran is sending a tougher message to the US negotiators, but an agreement might still be possible," said Javedenfar.

The International Atomic Energy Agency stated in a report presented to members states on Monday and seen by Reuters that Iran is advancing its work with uranium metal.

"On 14 August 2021, the Agency verified … that Iran had used 257 g[rams] of uranium enriched up to 20% U-235 in the form of UF4 (uranium tetrafluoride) to produce 200 g[rams] of uranium metal-enriched up to 20% U-235," said the UN nuclear watchdog.

Such work is not going to help advance talks that are already at an impasse.

Ali Alfoneh, a senior fellow at the Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington, told JNS that "the Iranian president does not necessarily represent a belligerent line, but lessons learned by the Iranian state in the past decade are likely to lead to a more confrontational approach."

He wrote in a recent article that this aggressive approach is likely to continue due to four main lessons learned by officials in Tehran.

First, proxy wars secured military victories in Syria and Yemen. Second, Iran survived the Trump administration's nearly four-year "maximum pressure" campaign. Third, no military retaliation came for attacks against Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. And fourth, the coronavirus pandemic has led to more government control of the country, rather than less.

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Add Afghanistan to this list of countries where Iran is likely to push to increase its influence drastically after the US military withdrawal.

The collapse of the Afghan military could serve as further motivation for Iran to aggressively target American-allied Gulf states such as Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, as well as countries like Jordan.

Reprinted with permission from JNS.org.

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Israeli Foreign Minister Yair Lapid is scheduled to travel to the United Arab Emirates next week, marking his first visit there since he became the country's top diplomat.

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The visit comes as Israel and the Biden administration seek to find common ground on mutual issues. While both have expressed a desire to expand the Abraham Accords, key differences are likely to remain on issues such as the Palestinians and Iran. Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett, like his predecessor, is opposed to the United States rejoining the Iranian nuclear deal, and the new government is unlikely to possess the political willpower to make any significant moves on the Palestinian front.

The international move to offer Iran concessions has put countries like Saudi Arabia and the UAE on edge – not to mention Israel – and decreases their willingness to take diplomatic risks. As a result, the Saudis and Emiratis are again engaging with Tehran because they want to contain the damage of the revival of the nuclear deal, Reuters reported earlier this month.

Earlier this month, The Washington Post reported that the Biden administration is considering appointing former Ambassador to Israel Daniel Shapiro as a Middle East envoy to expand ties with Arab states and Israel.

Shapiro is currently a distinguished visiting fellow at INSS.

"Appointing a special envoy to promote the Abraham Accords would be positive, and if it is Shapiro, that would be a good choice," said Yoel Guzansky, a senior research fellow at Israel's Institute for National Security Studies. "The combination of the Biden administration's emphasis on pushing the Palestinian file and the recent Gaza war means there may not be any momentum for new countries to join the Abraham Accords soon."

These factors could keep Saudi Arabia on the sidelines, seeing no benefit from joining the accords.

During his recent visit to the region in late May, Blinken told Palestinian Authority leader Mahmoud Abbas that America would reopen its Jerusalem consulate to the Palestinians and provide $360 million in support.

In addition to causing more malign behavior from the Palestinians, this approach could also cool off other Arab states from joining the peace deal.

"The Saudis and other Arab states may be thinking: Why join the Abraham Accords now and risk embarrassment if there is another Gaza war soon?" added Guzansky, a non-resident scholar at the Middle East Institute and who previously served on Israel's National Security Council.

He sees a significant risk that another Gaza war could break out in the not-so-distant future.

Regarding the Abraham Accords, "nobody knows what these deals entail in their entirety," he said, though added that these agreements "passed their first test with the Gaza war as none of these countries canceled the deal or withdrew their ambassadors, but only voiced rhetorical concern."

A focus on domestic and social issues

At the moment, the new Israeli government led by Bennett does not have a coherent ideology or strategy. It comprises far-left elements – Meretz and Labor – and even an Arab Islamist party, the United Arab List (known by its Hebrew acronym, Ra'am).

"The new government's agenda does not plan to focus on the Palestinian file, but domestic economic and social issues," Ido Zelkovitz, head of the Middle East Studies program at the Max Stern Yezreel Valley College, told JNS.

He predicted that the security agencies and the military would primarily handle security and Palestinian issues.

Indeed, this week IDF Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Aviv Kochavi led a delegation of senior military officials to the United States to meet with American military counterparts, becoming the first senior Israeli official to visit since the new government took power.

"The fragile government does not have a mandate from the public to deal with the Palestinians and the peace process," said Zelkovitz, also the research fellow at the Chaikin Chair for Geostrategy at the University of Haifa.

Bennett negotiated to become prime minister with only six Yamina Party members (one refused to support it) in a narrow coalition of a bare majority of 61 seats. Coalition partner and Alternative Prime Minister Yair Lapid's Yesh Atid received 17 seats in the election.

Zelkovitz sees the most probable scenario to be a continuation of the status quo and some understanding reached with Hamas-ruled Gaza through Egyptian mediation to solidify the ceasefire.

"With time, as the new government gains confidence, combined with international pressure, it could be that it would take a more active role in the Palestinian issue after it deals with passing a budget," he assessed.

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However, he warns that dealing with the Palestinian issue could also "lead to the government's breakup in a year-and-a-half to two years."

For this reason, it is most reasonable to expect the new government to focus on expanding the Abraham Accords to more Arab and Muslim-majority countries, and for now, keep the divisive Palestinian issue on the backburner.

Reprinted with permission from JNS.org.

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The head of the Islamic Movement political party Ra'am, Mansour Abbas, said on Thursday that he was freezing talks to form a government because of the violence between Arabs and Jews, making it increasingly likely that new elections will need to be held.

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"We have stopped all political contacts," he said in an interview on Army Radio.

Yesh Atid leader Yair Lapid and Yamina head Naftali Bennett have been in talks with the Joint Arab List, Abbas's Ra'am and left-wing parties to form a government, but the recent conflict has thrown those talks into a tailspin.

Since the riots broke out, Bennett's party has been under heavy pressure by his base and right-wing voters not to form a left-wing government with the Arab parties. It seems increasingly untenable that other parties, like Gideon Sa'ar's New Hope, will be able to join such a government with a war going on and Arab riots breaking out across the country.

On Thursday evening, Bennett read the political currents and reversed course, with Israeli media reports saying that he has ruled out forming a government with Lapid, as well as with left-wing and Arab parties.

The Israel Police instituted a blanket curfew on Lod on Wednesday night after Arab rioters destroyed cars, businesses and synagogues the day before. Arabs continued mob violence into the evening in other cities with large mixed Arab and Jewish populations, including Acre, Jaffa, Bat Yam, Haifa and Tiberias. Arab violence continued on Thursday night across the country.

On Friday, Israeli security forces arrested an imam with the Northern Branch of the Islamic Movement in Israel, Sheikh Kamal Khatib, in the town of Kafr Kanna.

Meretz MK Issawi Frej came out publicly in Israeli media in recent days condemning the rioting and violence, and seeking to calm the waters.

"At this time, it is forbidden to be silent! The anarchy in the streets of Ramle, Lod and other places threatens our existence as a society. We now have one task as public leaders – to work for calm, to [build] understanding between Arabs and Jews as neighbors and not enemies. Please, return to your houses and stop the violence," he tweeted on Tuesday.

Rodayna Badir, an expert on Arab society in Israel, told JNS that "the Arab parties Hadash and Balad are the biggest enemies of Abbas's Ra'am party."

The internal Arab bickering is on Israeli-Arab social media, she said, adding that there "is extremely high competition over who is perceived to be the leader of Arab society and the resources this position has control of. The Joint List parties are jealous of Abbas because the media is only interviewing Abbas and talking about him all the time, while no one cares about them."

"This has nothing to do with the Arab-Israeli conflict, but is all about money and power," claimed Badir. "Why are no Arab politicians in Jerusalem protesting? It is because they do not care and are focused on gaining power and prestige."

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Abbas seeks to support the formation of a government, and in return, receive a massive budget for the Arab sector, which the Islamic Movement would control and use to strengthen its power.

Though she said talks are suspended, Lapid has signaled that discussions to form a government would continue despite the current violence with Hamas in Gaza.

Further, she said that the Joint List of Arab parties that include the Communist Hadash, the nationalist Balad and Ahmad Tibi's small Ta'al Party should not be viewed as a single block, but as separate entities that have different interests.

The Arab parties joined forces for the election, but whether to join a government with Lapid or Bennett will be up to the individual parties.

Bishara Shlayan, an Israeli Christian Arab from Nazareth, said "the Arab political parties do not have anything to do with the daily lives of Israeli Arabs. I believe we must be integrated into society."

Shlayan, who is the head of a party that ran in the past elections under the name, Alliance for National Union, stressed that "Arab Israelis must be part of every government."

His party, which failed to get enough support to make it into the Knesset, says that instead of focusing on conflict, the emphasis should be on practical issues where Arabs and Jews can find common ground.

To that end, he said, "there needs to be cooperation between Arabs and Jews on day-to-day issues and for differences to be settled in the Knesset, not in the streets."

Reprinted with permission from JNS.org

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The renewal of indirect talks last week between the United States and Iran to revive the 2015 nuclear deal – the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action – appears to have escalated tensions in the Middle East, as Israel makes it clear to its ally that it will not accept Iranian nuclear capability.

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Western intelligence sources said Israel's Mossad intelligence agency was behind a blackout at Iran's underground Natanz nuclear facility in what seems to be a major setback for the Islamic republic's nuclear program.

Ali Akbar Salehi, head of the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran, blamed Israel and called the act a "desperate move" and "nuclear terrorism".

The sabotage of the Iranian nuclear facility could also add difficulties to the US-Iran negotiations.

John Hannah, a senior fellow at the Jewish Institute for National Security of America, told Jewish News Syndicate that at the heart of the administration's plan to rejoin the JCPOA, none of US President Joe Biden's advisers want to admit there is no deal without removing terrorism-related sanctions.

"The fact is there's no way back to the deal unless the United States is willing to accept Iran's demand that massive sanctions relief be granted to the central pillars of its region-wide terrorist enterprise: its Central Bank, oil sector and the [Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps]," he said. "There's no escaping the reality that at the core of the administration's Iran strategy is a devil's bargain that will funnel billions of dollars into Iran's imperial project across the Middle East in exchange for little more than a temporary reprieve from Iran's relentless march towards nuclear-weapons capability."

The renewed talks come as tensions remain high with Israel and other Arabs states, and as the International Atomic Energy Agency continues to chart Iran's growing nuclear advances.

On Friday, the UN nuclear watchdog noted a new breach by Iran of the nuclear deal while talks were going on to renew the agreement.

The report said Iran was recovering scrap fuel plates with uranium enriched to nearly 20%, which was previously agreed to be "unrecoverable."

'America has caved'

Harold Rhode, a long-time former adviser on Islamic affairs at the Pentagon, said, "The Iranians are having a field day humiliating us."

America has "shown weakness – the more Iran demands, the more the United States gives in," he added.

Iran began enriching uranium at Natanz last month using advanced IR-4 centrifuges, according to a new report by the IAEA.

Rhode said that US allies in the region, such as Israel, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Egypt, are looking for other alternatives. The media outlets of our allies in the region "are full of articles which, taken in their cultural context, indicate that the United States betrayed them and that China is making a bid to replace America as the world's superpower."

The United States has alled talks in Vienna with Iran "indirect."

Rhode said it may make "American negotiators feel good about themselves, but to our allies that have relied on the United States for protection and to enforce the international order, the word 'indirect' and 'direct' make no difference since the result is the same. America has caved."

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As a result, he added, "more Arab countries are looking to Israel to assume American's role, though they would never say so publicly."

Earlier this month, the New York Times reported that Israel had informed the United States that it was responsible for an attack against the Iranian vessel MV Saviz. Quoting an unnamed US official, the report stated that Israel claimed it was retaliation for Iranian attacks against Israeli ships in recent months.

Rhode said no one believed that it was an American attack at the time.

He stated: "Israel has the guts and ability to do so. America has the ability but has lost its way."

Reprinted with permission from JNS.org.

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The Jordanian government publicly acknowledged a new defense agreement with the United States this week that allows free entry for American forces, boosting Israel's unstable eastern neighbor and providing a base from which these forces can potentially act in Syria, Iraq and Iran.

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The deal was signed in January and approved by the Jordanian government last month after bypassing parliament, which drew criticism.

According to an AFP report, the agreement allows the United States to move in forces, aircraft and vehicles freely in the country. Quoting the local media website, Ammon, the deal will allow US forces to carry and transport weapons in Jordan.

"The new agreement reflects Jordan's increasing importance as a logistical and operative center in anticipation of further US troop withdrawals from Iraq and Syria at a time when the need for a US military presence increases rather than decreases," Hillel Frisch, Middle East expert and a professor at Bar-Ilan University in Ramat Gan, said.

"Jordan has long been a vital United States ally and since 2014 has been the third-highest beneficiary of United States military aid in the region behind Israel and Egypt," he said.

He added that "neither the Iranian nor the ISIS threat is going to disappear anytime soon."

Jordan is part of status quo Arab powers that oppose revolutionary Islamist movements and governments that seek to upend their regimes. Turkey, Iran, the Muslim Brotherhood and ISIS are the main threats to Jordan and like-minded states such as Saudi Arabia, Egypt and the United Arab Emirates.

These moderate Arab states cooperate among themselves and seek the support of the United States and even Israel as a hedge against regional enemies.

In the latest example, on Wednesday, Egypt and Jordan signed seven cooperative agreements in fields such as technology, defense and water resources.

Efraim Inbar, president of the Jerusalem Institute for Strategic Studies, said, "If the defense agreement strengthens the Jordanian regime against attempts to destabilize it by Iran and other radicals, it is good for Israel."

However, he continued, "I doubt whether we will see a serious American military presence in Jordan, as the US still wants to disengage from the Middle East."

Israel, which has a peace treaty with Jordan, sees it as a significant security wall against radical forces in Syria, Iraq and Iran. Geographically, Jordan separates Israel from Iran-dominated Iraq and Iran.

Jordan's stability also concerns Jerusalem as there is a sizable Islamist opposition, mainly from the Muslim Brotherhood, and public opinion is heavily anti-Israel. King Abdullah's government keeps a lid on radicals that could come to power if the regime would fall. A similar worry is Egypt, whose strongman, President Abdel-Fattah el-Sissi, keeps the Muslim Brotherhood and other radical groups in check.

Then there is the Palestinian issue, which can inflame a Jordanian population that is estimated to be 60 percent of Palestinian origin.

The country continues to struggle economically; earlier this month, Jordanian Prime Minister Bisher al-Khasawneh reshuffled his cabinet. He appointed six new ministers under the egis of King Abdullah, who assigned him to restore order after continuous failures by a series of governments to improve its citizens' lives, reported Reuters.

The economy contracted 3% last year primarily because of the coronavirus pandemic and resulting economic losses due to a lack of tourism.

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From America's perspective, Jordan provides its military with a flexible base. It can rotate its forces and launch cross-border operations against terrorists and other destabilizing forces in neighboring nations. Additionally, an estimated $425 million in annual US military aid boosts Jordan and strengthens their alliance.

From Israel's perspective, the new pact is a sign of continued US military presence and action in the region against familiar foes, despite what appears to be a US shift towards more isolationist policies and a draw-down of forces in both Iraq and Syria.

Reprinted with permission from JNS.org.

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Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's effort to gain Israeli Arab votes by emphasizing his practical policy towards them by aiding with issues that concern them appears to be gaining traction. He has been seen in the media sitting with Bedouin sipping tea, visiting the Bedouin city of Rahat in the Negev and playing soccer on the beach with Arab children all to court a new swath of voters.

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Mansour Abbas, the head of the United Arab List Party UAL – commonly known by its Hebrew acronym, Ra'am – the political branch of the southern branch of the Islamic Movement – broke off from the Joint Arab List of parties after angering them for seeking to improve ties with Netanyahu and the government.

Arik Rudnitzky of the Israel Democracy Institute and Tel Aviv University's Moshe Dayan Center told JNS that "it appears that many in the Arab public do not believe that the Knesset can further their interests."

"But they do believe that the government is the real power-broker," he said.

Against the backdrop of the social and economic crisis following the coronavirus pandemic in the past year and increasing bloodshed due to rising criminal incidents in the Arab sector, "quite a significant portion of the Arab voters will support Netanyahu, hoping that he will take care of their burning needs."

An in-depth analysis of a survey carried out by the Konrad Adenauer Program for Jewish-Arab Cooperation at the Moshe Dayan Center reveals that those who intend to vote for Likud pay less attention to the party's ideology and political platform than those who intend to vote for the Joint Arab List.

"In other words, the 'Likud Arab voter' is not necessarily identified with Zionist ideology, but rather, is interested in getting results here and now," explained Rudnitzky.

Surprisingly, according to the survey, the most qualified candidate for prime minister in the Arab sector is Netanyahu (24.9%), followed by Ta'al MK Ahmad Tibi (14.3%), and Joint Arab List head Ayman Odeh. It also found that half of the Arab voters (46%) support an Arab party's participation in any government after the elections.

And it discovered that the Joint Arab List – made up of the Hadash, Balad and Ta'al parties – would receive around eight Knesset seats while Abbas' Ra'am would barely make into the Knesset with the minimum four seats.

'A deeper reason at play for the breakup'

Shaheen Sarsour, veteran Arab political observer and a former adviser to various Arab Knesset members, said that the Joint Arab List did not want the Ra'am to remain part of it, even though Abbas preferred to stay inside the Arab block.

"This was due to several factors – the major one being the other parties in the Joint Arab List were angry at Abbas for his outreach to Netanyahu," he said. "I think there is a deeper reason at play as well for the breakup, which is that it became a war of egos between Abbas, Odeh and the popular politician Ahmad Tibi."

"Odeh and Tibi were probably unhappy seeing Abbas in the spotlight and gaining all of the attention for his warming to Netanyahu," continued Sarsour.

Ra'am, as part of the Islamic Movement, has strong grassroots support, and Sarsour predicts that it will make it into the next Knesset, passing the electoral threshold.

The Islamic Movement has an extensive social network and can utilize it for political gain, similar to other Muslim Brotherhood groups.

According to Sarsour, the position that Abbas took was "We are fed up with always being angry and attacking the government. We want to influence the government on issues that affect the Arab public like violence and the lack of housing in the Arab sector."

In a way, Netanyahu created the fracture within the Joint Arab List, thus weakening the anti-Netanyahu block of parties on the left.

It is unlikely that Mansour Abbas would join a Netanyahu government – not only because Netanyahu himself has dismissed the idea but also because his right-wing coalition partner, Religious Zionism, might refuse to sit in such a government.

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Despite the cordial relations between Abbas and Netanyahu, Ra'am is part of the Islamic Movement that seeks to Islamize Israeli Arabs and, in the long term, to transform Israel into an Islamic state. That said, any partnership could only go so far.

Still, in the post-election coalition negotiations, Abbas could play a kingmaker role by joining the anti-Netanyahu block or not.

Reprinted with permission from JNS.org.

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Saudi Arabia is on a path to peace with Israel, but it needs to be given space to move at its own pace, former White House Middle East envoy Jason Greenblatt tells JNS in an exclusive interview.

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"These deals are complex and take a great deal of time, but any one thing could spark the right opportunity for a deal to actually be announced and quickly consummated, as we have seen," said Greenblatt.

The New York-born son of Hungarian Jewish refugees, Greenblatt is a father of six who lives in Teaneck, New Jersey. He worked as a lawyer for the Trump organization before becoming former President Donald Trump's special envoy for international negotiations in January 2017, one of the few Trump officials charged with the Middle East file.

Greenblatt weighed in on his experiences negotiating on behalf of the Trump administration's efforts towards Israeli-Palestinian peace and the Abraham Accords, as well as his thoughts on the Biden administration reviving the 2015 Iran nuclear deal (the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, or JCPOA ) and its critical approach vis-à-vis the Saudis.

He noted that in its first months, the Biden administration seems to be giving too much credence to the European position, even though the European Union was a main force behind what he called the "disastrous" Iran nuclear deal.

Q: In your recent article in Newsweek, you seem to rebuke the Biden administration's foreign policy that seeks a rapprochement with Iran at the expense of the moderate Gulf and Arab states, as well as Israel. How will this affect the peace deals between Israel and the Arab world that you helped orchestrate? Will it make their alliance stronger?

"My position on whose voices truly matter on the Iranian threat has been clear. The Biden administration has put a great deal of emphasis on the Europeans being the relevant parties at the Iranian table.

"While some of these European countries are relevant in the sense that they were involved in the disastrous JCPOA, and indeed they have a relationship with the Iranian regime which is helpful, the European outlook often is not aligned with ours or our important allies in the Middle East − Israel, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Bahrain and Jordan.

"It is our allies in the Middle East who are in the most danger from the Iranian threats, including nuclear, missiles, drones, proxies, terrorism and other malign activity. These countries should have a seat at the front of the table at all these meetings to ensure their voices are heard loud and clear."

Q: From Israel's perspective, how should it pursue a peace deal with Saudi Arabia and some of the other Arab countries that have not done so yet? Will the current administration's policies push Saudi Arabia and Israel closer?

"These deals are complex and take a great deal of time, but any one thing could spark the right opportunity for a deal to actually be announced and quickly consummated, as we have seen.

"Israel should continue to do what it is doing by being a force for good in the world and security in the region and elsewhere. Israel should walk tall and proud, and over time, more and more countries will realize that being Israel's ally is a big benefit for so many reasons.

"I think Saudi Arabia will get there, but we have to be patient and give Saudi Arabia the space it needs. Pressure from any party, including the US, will not yield a peace deal that is worth much or long-lasting. Peace will come when everyone is ready for it, for the right reasons. Encouragement is important, but pressure is not worthwhile."

Q: What do you make of the latest spat between Israel and Jordan, and the report that Jordan blocked its airspace to Netanyahu?

"I don't have the inside scoop on what actually happened, and I am not sure which news reports are accurate. But I think Jordan is not only an important ally of the US, it is an important neighbor to Israel.

"I hope that Israel and Jordan work in good faith to repair that very important relationship. Rhetoric from some sectors turning this into a religious dispute is very harmful, and I doubt there is any truth to those stories. Frankly, if it were up to me, I would invite Crown Prince [Mohammed bin Salman] to visit Jerusalem and pray at the Al-Aqsa Mosque, and ensure that he has the security he is comfortable with.

"Israel tries hard to do as good a job as possible to allow Muslims to worship at Al-Aqsa; in fact, it is Jewish worship that is forbidden. The more people understand that the better."

Q: What is the biggest misconception you observed in Washington circles and the foreign-policy establishment regarding the overall situation in the Middle East?

"I will actually list several misconceptions because they are so important to understanding the conflict and its potential resolution.

"First, that the Arab-Israeli conflict can only be solved when solving the Israel-Palestinian conflict. Perhaps that was true years ago. Clearly, it is no longer true for some countries, and hopefully, for many others. The conflicts are tied together, but can be broken apart and solved separately.

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"Another is the total acceptance of many of the Palestinians' talking points as if they were valid, legally binding rights, such as their demand for all of east Jerusalem (including Judaism's holiest sites) and that a peace deal must be largely based on the so-called 1967 borders, as if Israel is illegally occupying land that actually once belonged to Palestinians, as opposed to the land being disputed and claimed by Palestinians.

"Or that other countries or groups of countries, such as the United Nations or the European Union, can demand a solution to the conflict out of Israel, as opposed to a solution to the conflict, if any, coming from direct, good faith negotiations between the parties.

"Another big misconception is ignoring the situation in Gaza. The Palestinian leadership is split into two groups and not much can happen without that changing. We will see if that changes, and if there is actually a free and fair election among the Palestinians as they are currently working on.

"I could go on and on. There are many misconceptions, and each one causes the conflict to be harder to solve and holds people back from better lives."

Q: After having backed themselves into isolation, the Palestinians now seem to think they have an ally in the Biden administration. Do you see the administration forcing concessions from Israel on this matter?

"I don't want to make predictions about the Biden administration. I think the administration is smart enough to understand that demanding things out of Israel will not achieve a peace agreement and does nothing to further US interests, so I certainly hope not.

"I think the Palestinian leadership – both in Ramallah and the so-called leadership, actually terrorists, in Gaza – have read the tea leaves wrong again and again. What a shame for the Palestinian people who deserve so much better than they have now.

If asked, I would strongly advise the Biden administration not to put pressure on Israel and also not to start throwing money again at the Palestinians who misuse so much of the money that the US and other countries give them. What a waste of US taxpayer funds."

Q: Have you been contacted by members of the current administration for advice? Would you consider serving again in a future administration?

"I have not been contacted by them and would be happy to share my three years of very relevant, current experience with them at any time. I think they could only benefit from hearing from us.

"Keep in mind, it was a very small group of people who handled this file. I would expect they would want this information.

"Under the right circumstances, I would consider serving at some point in the future. It was an incredible honor to serve my country and to work on bringing peace to the region, as well as strengthening the US-Israel relationship, and building and deepening the ties between Israel and its Arab neighbors. I participated in some incredible, historic decisions and moments. What a blessing to have been able to do that."

Reprinted with permission from JNS.org

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