Despite public statements and cautious optimism on the Palestinian street, prospects for Palestinian elections going ahead are still far from certain. Fourteen Palestinian factions met in Cairo in February under the auspices of the Egyptian General Intelligence Directorate to work out concrete agreements for the holding of elections, but this meeting may have been more show than substance.

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Under the latest proposal, elections for the Palestinian Legislative Council are to be held on May 22; for the presidency of the Palestinian Authority on July 31; and for the Palestinian National Council (PLO) on Aug. 31. At the same time, Hamas is presently holding its own internal elections for positions of power, including the political bureau that is currently headed by Ismael Haniyeh.

The factions agreed that the Palestinian police forces would be exclusively in charge of securing the elections in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip. They also agreed that an organizing committee and a court would be established to ensure that the elections are free and fair, and that all political prisoners be released. Palestinian Authority head Mahmoud Abbas has in recent days signed a presidential decree that orders the release of all political prisoners.

The agreements call for ensuring the freedom to express opinions under the two rival Palestinian governments of Fatah in the West Bank and Hamas in Gaza, and that security forces in both sectors would remain neutral vis-à-vis the elections.

In theory, these elections are years late, with the last round being held in 2006 and all attempts since to hold new elections having failed. In practice, Fatah kept delaying the elections due to political considerations until Abbas issued a decree in January calling for new elections to be held in 2021.

Despite all of the above, the path to holding Palestinian elections remains filled with obstacles: Fundamental divisions remain between Fatah and Hamas; and there are a series of problematic, unresolved issues, such as Israel's position on the elections, which could torpedo the entire process.

In recent weeks, Israel has conducted an intensive wave of arrests of Hamas operatives and leaders in the West Bank, including legislative council members. Hamas says this will not dent its determination to pursue the upcoming elections.

Palestinian sources stress that the next round of talks is scheduled for March in Cairo as a reflection of the fact that divisions could not be resolved within the two days that the factions met in February and that more time is needed to reach practical agreements to pave the path to elections.

The sources estimated that only when the first round of elections for the legislative council approaches in May will the final decision be made on whether to proceed as planned.

Fatah sources have not ruled out the possibility in the absence of agreements and compromise on the substantial divisions that elections will again be suspended or delayed. The fact that Abbas has announced dates for the elections should therefore not be seen in any way as a guarantee that they will go ahead as stated.

Ultimately, it's vital to keep in mind that all of the steps taken in the direction of elections are reversible, and that all progress so far has been on the declarative and technical administrative front.

It still remains highly uncertain that elections will go ahead. Several factors can derail the process at any time. It appears that Abbas is taking part in the elections process to "gain points" vis-à-vis the new Biden administration in the United States and to present itself as a democratic Palestinian government. If this is the case, it is fair to assume that Abbas has planted "exit ramps" that will allow him to leave the election process under the pretext of major divisions with Hamas.

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Abbas must be aware of the very real dangers to Fatah's status in the West Bank in the event of a Hamas election victory, which could prepare the ground for a Hamas takeover of Palestinian institutions. Palestinian sources have assessed that if Abbas is indeed serious about going "all the way" in the elections, he would be committing political suicide.

Israel has yet to make its position on the elections public, but it's fair to assume that the defense establishment is holding ongoing assessments and preparing multiple action paths to deal with a variety of scenarios. Abbas could use the pretext of an Israeli refusal to allow the elections to take place in eastern Jerusalem to back away from the process.

Reprinted with permission from JNS.org.

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The historic Abraham Accords have exposed the profoundly weakened position in which the Palestinian Authority now finds itself.

PA President Mahmoud Abbas is almost certainly hoping for the return of a US Democratic administration – one he believes will turn back the clock on several recent US policies regarding the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

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Barely any ties remain between Abbas and the Trump administration. Relations are at their lowest point since the start of the Oslo peace process in the early 1990s.

Spawning that deterioration is a series of US decisions that constitute a major departure from long-held American positions toward the Palestinians.

Attempting to convey the PA's ability to implement unified, decisive positions in the face of US treatment it views as unfair, Abbas has abandoned any pretense of cordial relations with America and has ramped up his condemnation of what he views as Trump's unbalanced positions and bias. His audiences are the Palestinian street, the Arab world and the international community.

It's worth recalling what led to this breakdown.

Following his election, the American president delayed his response to Abbas' request for a congratulatory phone call. That conversation, which took place some 10 days after the request was made, was interpreted as a clear attempt by Trump to downgrade Abbas' status as head of Fatah and the PA

The appointment of David Friedman as the US ambassador to Israel in May 2017 was seen as a provocative and offensive maneuver. Friedman, who was on record as holding explicitly right-wing positions, including enthusiastic support for Israeli development in Judea and Samaria, was viewed as highly problematic by Ramallah.

Later, in December of the same year, the Americans recognized Jerusalem as Israel's capital; a declaration swiftly followed by the deed of officially opening the US Embassy there.

Also in 2017, the Trump administration closed the PLO office in Washington, in an attempt to force the Palestinians back to the negotiating table and to punish them for and to deter them from submitting complaints against Israel at The Hague.

The immediate Palestinian response was to submit a new complaint to The Hague, opposing Israel's decision to clear the Bedouin village of Khan al-Ahmar in the West Bank. The January 2020 "Peace to Prosperity" Mideast peace plan put forth by the Trump administration was dismissed by Abbas as an unfair and hostile blueprint.

The passage of the Taylor Force Act, of March 2018, which halts funding to the PA while it continues to pay monthly stipends to convicted terrorists and the families of killed terrorists, further angered Abbas. In 2018 alone, the PA paid $360 million, 7% of the PA's budget, to terrorists or their families.

The United States, which was the principal funder of the UN Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees, paying $ 1.1 billion annually (a third of UNRWA's yearly budget), also withdrew funding to the organization in 2018.

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These measures have ruptured both diplomatic relations between the US and the Palestinians, as well as the security-intelligence cooperation between the PA, the US, and Israel.

In October 2018, US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo announced that the US General Consulate would merge with the US Embassy in Jerusalem and that Washington would manage relations with the Palestinians through a special Palestinian Affairs Unit. The PA's policy has been to avoid any cooperation with the new unit.

That cooperation, led by the PA's head of General Intelligence Services, Maj. Gen. Majed Faraj on the Palestinian side, was suspended by the PA in May 2020, in protest of Israeli plans to apply sovereignty in the Jordan Valley. Even the official contacts between the PA and the CIA, which had managed to weather the crisis, were suspended a number of weeks ago.

Ultimately, the PA's decision to cut off ties with a superpower like the US was counterproductive. It only served to weaken the PA's status in America's eyes.

The Palestinians have thus adopted a waiting position ahead of the US presidential election. Their hope is that a Biden administration will bring an end what the PA views as four nightmarish years for the Palestinian cause.

But when viewed for what they are – the withholding of funding for terrorist stipends, including terrorists who have murdered US citizens, the opening of a US embassy to Israel in the Israeli capital and the defunding of UNRWA – any future US administration will be hard-pressed to reverse course. Gambling that they will do so may prove to be a mistake. The PA would be better served by coming out of its defensive crouch and starting to progress towards reconciliation with Israel and America.

Reprinted with permission from JNS.org

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