No one knows who is behind the wave of poisoning attacks on Iranian schoolgirls. Frankly, no one really even knows what exactly is going on. The authorities in the country and the girls and their families believe that the girls have been exposed to poisonous gas. What kind of gas? That is unclear. The exposure apparently took place in schools, which are the common denominator between all the affected girls. This has made the still-ongoing attacks a particularly loaded affair. The schools at the center of events are located in strongholds of the popular anti-government protests that have hit Iran over the past few months. The protests erupted over the refusal of some Iranian women to wear the Hijab head-covering in public, as required by law. The protests, held under the banner, "women, life, freedom," have also led other sectors to call for the Islamic Republic to be toppled.

Follow Israel Hayom on Facebook, Twitter, and Instagram

The protest may have died down in recent weeks, but it has unleashed processes that the regime has found difficult to stop. More and more women are violating the mandatory hijab laws – even without any connection to political protest. The Islamic Republic is, at the least for the moment, no longer enforcing the law.

The Iranian opposition outside of the country has accused the Revolutionary Guards of an ongoing attack on Iranian women. They charge that the regime is taking revenge on young women who led the protest and is doing so in a sophisticated way without opting for measures such as imprisonment and executions. In reality, however, things are far more complex than "good" against "bad" or than a simplistic "revenge" mechanism.

The authorities in Iran have been left embarrassed by the poisonings. There are no hints such as those familiar to Israelis – "according to foreign sources" that suggest an operation carried out in a far-off country by the Mossad or IDF. It's true that the authorities didn't rush to investigate, but there is no evidence to suggest any attempt at a coverup once the investigation began.

One possibility is that the attacks were carried out by a radical religious organization. Embarrassingly for the Shiite Islamic Republic, these organizations share the ideology of the Sunni Taliban in Afghanistan and wish to ban girls from receiving an education. The Islamic Republic always boasted that if women stuck to the rules of "modesty and morality" it wouldn't prevent them from acquiring an education or working. Iran's leaders find themselves between the hammer of the protests led by young women who wish to change these "modesty laws" and the anvil of radicals who wish to enforce one, uncompromising version of religion in the public realm. The religious radicals supposedly operate in the name of Islam.

The poisonings could also be a counter-reaction to the loosening of hijab enforcement that is evident across Iran. The new reality that has been established is perceived as a victory for the protest movement and as proof of the structural weakness of the Islamic Republic. If this is the case, then this could be an expression of anger and frustration in revolutionary circles. The poisonings and the way they have been handled are testimony to the complex reality faced by the leadership in Tehran. It is important to remember this complexity in political and strategic contexts as well.

Subscribe to Israel Hayom's daily newsletter and never miss our top stories!

The post Iran's schoolgirl poisonings: Did the revolutionaries strike back? appeared first on www.israelhayom.com.

For the past week or so Iranian media kept reporting on the arrest of a "senior" official. Over the weekend it was announced that the official – who turned out to be former Defense Minister Alireza Akbari – was executed. These were summary judicial proceedings whose outcome was all but expected, with Akbari being accused of spying for the UK. But despite the Iranian claims and his British nationality, I believe there is another story altogether to this saga.

Follow Israel Hayom on Facebook, Twitter, and Instagram

Akbari had been close to another former Iranian defense minister, Ali Shamkhani, who is now the secretary of the Supreme National Security Council of Iran. He is not your typical Iranian official, as he is considered an interlocutor for some in the West. For example, in 2021, he met in Iraq with CIA Director William Burns in an effort to jumpstart the nuclear talks.

Shamkhani is no liberal, but none exist in the higher echelons in Tehran. He is considered to be among the pragmatists, a group who have always worked behind the scenes to bridge the divide between various camps and interest groups. They don't have a set agenda – they want neither democratization nor ongoing strife. Their main goal is to ensure the survivability of the Islamic Republic. Due to his worldview, he also wields significant influence on various circles within Iranian society.

So why was his close contact eliminated? Reports from Iran indicate that in the runup to the execution, there had been attempts to form a new pragmatist coalition that would have Shamkhani as one of its main linchpins, along with former Majlis Speaker Ali Larijani. Such a coalition would challenge the existing leadership, especially in light of the latter's unsuccessful response to the "Hijab Protest" that erupted several months ago.

Iran's current rulers are the revolutionaries who seek a permanent clash with the world. But there is a significant number of people within the halls of government, including senior Iranian officials, who believe that this cadre of leaders is to blame for the unrest because they had insisted on disrupting the delicate equilibrium the pragmatists had achieved in Iranian life.  Those senior pragmatists are convinced that the current Iranian regime is also responsible for the failure of the nuclear talks aimed at reviving the 2015 deal. They have noted the growing discontent and are preparing for the internal power struggles over who should lead it.

When will this battle over Iran take place? When Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei dies. He has advanced-stage prostate cancer at a very advanced stage. It doesn't mean that he is in his last throes, but his impending departure has been factored into the variety of considerations of Iran's wheelers and dealers on both sides.

When he dies, something unprecedented will happen in Iran: a selection process for a new supreme leader that will not be run from the top down. Khamenei was tapped as the successor to the founder ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini well in advance; he has led the country for the vast majority of its existence as a republic. But Khamenei doesn't have the same religious stature and political gravitas to preselect a successor.

Upon his death, a special constitutionally mandated body would convene to elect a new supreme leader: the Assembly of Experts for Leadership. This body comprises various alliances and coalitions that make Survivor: VIP  look like a walk in the park. There is no way of knowing who will emerge victorious. Will the experts – senior clerics alongside political functionaries – opt for a pragmatist? Will they select another revolutionary? Alireza Akbari was executed, it seems, as a signal to Shamkhani and his camp that they better be careful in the critique of the regime and their jockeying for position.

What can we glean from this event? Mainly we can see the weakness and fear among revolutionaries currently holding the reins of government in Iran, and seeking continued conflict with the world. They are the ones who built a whole array of regional proxies for Iran and they are heavily invested in having those forces get continual funding. They know that large swaths of the public in Iran, including those who don't seek the Islamic Republic's demise, have a particular hatred toward them. More than anything else, Iranians clamor for a return to the global fold and to get the status they deserve.

The counteraction of the revolutionaries is ratcheting up the level of brazen violence. They have put on display their mafia-like traits toward their rivals. An effective dictatorship doesn't have to use force in the open; a dictatorship that resorts to such brutal public actions does so because it realizes it has no other option.

It's also important to keep in mind that the Islamic Republic is not a monolithic entity. There are sober voices who do not have Israel's destruction comprise part of their vision, and they definitely do not see to have regional domination. So long as the Islamic Republic is standing, we must be aware of those voices. Anyone who simplifies their enemy into a two-dimensional entity is bound to be defeated.

Subscribe to Israel Hayom's daily newsletter and never miss our top stories!

The post Iran's latest execution sends clear signal amid looming succession battle appeared first on www.israelhayom.com.

Iran is considering easing the mandate for women to wear hijabs in public places. On top of that, officials are also talking about the possibility of dismantling the country's so-called "morality police''. The protesters, however, continue to seek the end of the regime in its entirety. So what exactly is the state of affairs in Iran?

Follow Israel Hayom on Facebook, Twitter, and Instagram

Firstly, in his major long-term game, the ayatollahs blinked first. The willingness to take a step back is not obvious when it comes to an entity that claims to represent the only true worldview. The majority of critical remarks leveled at the leadership in recent months were due to its corruption and oppressive policies, void of religious substance, but claiming to act "in the name of God."

When senior officials admit that there is no obligation to observe the laws of modesty and wear hair coverings at all times, they also admit that politics is stronger than religion.

The ayatollahs always had this sobriety, but it competed for prominence with militant revolutionism. Every revolution splits into two at one point or another into those who view its confrontation position as a strength and those who view revolutionary changes as a boost of energy aimed at creating a new order and lasting stability.
Supreme Leader of Iran Ali Khamenei seems to be leaning toward a permanent revolution. And yet, he supported the nuclear deal. The decisions made in recent days also indicate an understanding that the future of the republic lies in sobriety and even listening to the citizens.

And what about the protesters? Will they be encouraged by the concessions and increase the protests demanding the end of the regime? Not necessarily. This protest/revolution moves at a different pace.

It aims to bring into it as many people and hardships as possible to offer a national story that could replace the Islamic republic. The latter continues to err and expose its economic and moral corruption in a variety of areas. As such, time works in the protesters' favor.

And yet, the Islamic republic still stands firm. The protestors are not seeking a coup, but a revolution. It is likely that they will hear the messages of the leadership in Tehran but will not stop the protests. The reported "gestures" were intended to "pacify" them. But the protesters are steadfast on a path whose end is completely unknown.

Subscribe to Israel Hayom's daily newsletter and never miss our top stories! 

The post The ayatollahs blinked first appeared first on www.israelhayom.com.