Today, as Israel is in the midst of the world's fastest and most effective vaccination campaign, when the citizens of Israel are finally starting to see the light at the end of the tunnel, when the entire world is starting to talk about a foreseeable end to the COVID era, it's time to learn lessons and reach conclusions. No, not backward, about how the COVID crisis was handled in the difficult past year, but looking ahead to the pandemics that could befall us in the future.

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But before we answer the question of how to prepare for the next pandemic, we need to ask which pandemic should we prepare for? Not necessarily in terms of identifying the precise virus or bacteria, but rather in terms of the threat it can pose.

It's almost certain that the natural tendency of any government will be better preparation for the same thing, or, regrettably, to prepare slightly better for the same thing. If we had a pandemic called COVID-19, we need to prepare for COVID-30. That's human nature, to prepare for what we've experienced.

I study this problematic thinking not only as part of the "problem of induction" in the philosophy of science (asking the wrong question), but also as my many years of service in the intelligence community. Nearly all intelligence preparations start with the assumption that we will see a repeat of what already happened, with various changes. The next war will be a bigger, harder version – of the previous one.

Intelligence services' true ability to throw off the induction problem and warn of major changes, or in other words to warn of the appearance of something unfamiliar, is nearly zero. The same rules apply when it comes to public health, and so do the same failures.

On our way to total anarchy

So for what kind of pandemic should be prepare? COVID should serve as a serious warning, not only about the possible return of some mutation or another, but because of the possibility of entire new pandemics. Unfortunately, COVID has already claimed about 1 million lives, disrupted all of humanity's day-to-day life and struck a serious blow to the entire global economy.

But luckily, thus far is has not threatened the continued existence of humanity. The mortality rate of those who contract the virus varies from 0.7% in Israel, at the bottom of the scale, to 7% in the worst-hit countries.

But can nothing be ruled out when it comes to the possibilities of a much more lethal pandemic, one that would pose a threat to the lives of billions of people, and possibly civilization itself?

The person who prompted me to start thinking about this was Professor Ernest Moniz, the former secretary of energy in the Obama administration. Moniz, who currently serves as chairman of an organization that researches global threats, published a report two years ago about the state of global preparedness for new pandemics.

In our last meeting in Washington, when reports of the COVID outbreak in China were just starting to emerge, we talked about the possibility of a totally different pandemic that would include the following characteristics: it would be more contagious than COVID and take approximately a month for those who contract it to exhibit symptoms; be as lethal as Ebola, with a mortality rate of 50%; and affect children and youth to the same extent as adults.

A pandemic with that kind of mechanism could, in normal circumstances, infect most inhabitants of the globe within a few months. Since symptoms would appear and people would start dying only about a month after contracting the disease, the horses, metaphorically speaking, would already be out of the barn and running free throughout the world before humanity could shut the door.

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We could find ourselves in an apocalyptic scenario in which things would look like this: because of widespread aviation and transportation linkage between all parts of the world, the pandemic would quickly reach every part of the globe before governments realized what was happening. And when they did realize it and decided to limit movement, there would be no need for them. Public panic will get so bad that people will shut themselves in their homes, fearing for their lives. The problem that governments will have to grapple with is the opposite of the one that exists today. Rather than instating lockdowns, they will have to force essential workers to do their jobs, when every step outside the home comprises a major risk.

As the theoretical pandemic spreads across the world, hundreds of millions will die. But many more will lose their lives as public order crumbles and total anarchy sets in. A pandemic of this type can be contained only if it is identified and understood from the very start, and only if countries take immediate emergency steps that are much harsher than anything we knew under COVID.

Sadly, in any scenario that includes any delay at all, the chances that governments will succeed in overcoming such a pandemic are virtually nil. The fact that the pandemic would also put children's lives at risk, like Ebola does, will mean that no sane parent would allow their children outside.

The inevitable result will be that people will abandon the workplace, including essential workers, and all national institutions, as well as the economies, will collapse. Workers at food factories and grocery stores will stay at home, and the food supply chain will come to a halt within a day or two. Workers in the electricity and water sectors will do the same, causing the power and water supply to dry up within a week or two. It's not impossible that many doctors and nurses will follow suit, and hospitals will be abandoned.

The hope: artificial intelligence

A country that falls into a situation like that will of course try to issue directives for public workers. But there won't be anyone to enforce them – because the police will be afraid to leave their homes, too, knowing that by doing so they almost certainly condemn their families to death. In short, nearly all essential systems will soon cease to operate, and the country will stop existing as a functioning organ. In the worst case scenario, humanity will be wiped out. In the best case, it would be thrust back to the Middle Ages.

Is this an inescapable fate? Is our only option to sit on our hands and pry that the next pandemic isn't faster or more deadly than COVID? Definitely not, on the condition that humanity is able to seriously address the expected challenge and get ready for it ahead of time.

First of all, a global tracking system must be established that will make it possible to identify outbreaks as close to the source as possible and map their spread in real time. A system that is able to use super-computing and artificial intelligence, with international law requiring the full cooperation of healthcare, tracking, and information systems from all over the world – including full access to the relevant data. This is the only way to provide rapid alerts about the approaching danger.

Secondly, the entire world, and every country, must make itself ready to set up quarantine systems internationally and domestically, and drill them periodically. The ability to close down aviation, oceanic, and ground transportation quickly  in order to create "islands" will allow chains of infection to be cut off and other areas to be protected. As a result, the unaffected areas will continue to enjoy uninterrupted supply of food, electricity, and water. They will also supply those essential needs to the areas under lockdown due to outbreaks.

Other vital steps include ensuring full supplies of protective equipment for the frontline workers, including hazmat suits and masks, so that they can leave their homes and do their jobs; setting up protected research and development centers to study the pandemic and develop medicines and vaccines.

War is war

Of course, we are talking about emergency measures, some of which will seriously affect our civil rights. But war is war, because that's the price we pay to save millions of people. If, due to geographic isolation, some countries or cities are unaffected by the pandemic, we can assume that their research and development institutions will also be able to work on vaccines and medicines to fight the virus.

As I have emphasized, the basic condition for success is immediacy. Every country will have to put mechanisms in place ahead of time, and give them legal status. Since in the short history of our country, Israel has experienced the start of more than a few wars, we learned to develop intelligence and technology tools that can give us early warning and formalize the legal processes that allow us to move from an ordinary security situation to an emergency in the blink of an eyes.

The lesson we have to learn from COVID – both Israel and the world as a whole – should go beyond new healthcare preparations. It should allow us to move from routine to a state of emergency in an instant. That is the only way we have any chance of protecting humanity from new pandemics, and ensuring that civilization continues to exist.

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In these crazy times of a pandemic and public hysteria, when the world and local orders are being shaken up, when verbal violence is flying in every direction and we are falling into collective insanity, we should go back and take Rabin's words to heart.

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It is equally important to go back and remember the second, less-remembered sentence of that same speech: "In democracy, there can be disputes, but the decision will be made in an election."

When I was young, I was a left-winger. Now that I am an adult, I'm on the Right. In the 1980s I took part in demonstrations organized by Peace Now, and at the start of the 21^st century I became a Likud MK and minister. I have experienced incitement and hatred as both a right-winger and a left-winger. I was "privileged" to sample the contempt and attacks from both sides.

It's the same old song and dance, and lately we are seeing and feeling how the flames of our small tribal campfire are growing and threatening to engulf us all. How the ideological passion of one camp or another is translated to incitement, loathing, and contempt for those who aren't part of it. In the past few weeks, we've seen repeatedly how large, key sectors, some passionately determined to save either the "democratic" or the "Jewish" element of the country – depending on how they see things – sometimes slip into disobeying instructions from government institutions, and even become violent toward police and soldiers.

The formula: Judaism and democracy

It seems to me that sometimes, my personal history gives me a certain advantage over my colleagues on the Right and the Left. I know, and can eve fell, how things look from the other side.

I know with absolute certainty that the vast majority of people on both sides truly and wholeheartedly want the best for the country and everyone here. I am convinced in every fiber of my being that the vast majority of leftists are patriots in the strict sense of the word, not – heaven forbid – "traitors" or "stinking left-wingers." I also know absolutely the vast majority of right-wingers are democrats in the strict sense of the word, and not – heaven forbid – "fascists" or "sheep-like beats."

We are brothers, even when we see and interpret reality in completely different ways. We are brothers, and not only because we are all one people that is still fighting for its existence and independence in a tough, dangerous region. We are brothers, because we have almost no family or circles of friends that don't include religious and secular, Sephardi and Ashkenazi, left-wing and right-wing, and equally impassioned supporters of and opponents of the government and its leader.

Now, with the world in an uproar, and modern-day media catastrophizing, as it does, and highlighting the disputes to give us our daily doses of excitement in its ratings battle, it is vital to calm down for a moment and look at things from a slightly more philosophical-historical perspective.

It's important to remember that in the short history of our tiny country, we're seen worse crises. Do you remember the worries about the country's fate, even its existence, during the wait that preceded the 1967 Six-Day War? Do you remember the difficult times of the 1973 Yom Kippur War? The warnings about the fate of democracy that went along with Menachem Begin's election win? The unprecedentedly violent campaign of 1981? The economic crisis and hyperinflation of the 1980s? The polarization and protests during the Oslo Accords? The terrible event of Rabin's assassination? The buses and restaurants that were blown up in our cities' streets during the Second Intifada?

Our "Jewish-democratic" formula has already proven itself a winning one, and believe me that if we've made it through all this, we will survive COVID, too. The way it looks now, despite how bad things are, the COVID crisis will pass in the not-too-distant future thanks to the vaccines and treatments that are even now being developed. We can already risk the prediction that this time, the serious complications to the world order are temporary. This is not an event that will change the world like World War II did. In the meantime, we should all calm down and calm each other. This is the most rational way of maintaining our "Jewish, democratic" identity.

Words can kill

So I am calling on my friends on the Right who are upset over the anti-government protests that are sometimes seen as condescending and dismissive, to steer clear of verbal violence with the protesters from the other wide, and certainly to avoid physical confrontations.

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They have a right to protest, and that right is not to be challenged, even if some of their messages annoy us and even if they insult and offend us. They have a right to protest, yes, and even utter filth, as long as they follow the law and public health restrictions. In my left leg, I still have fragments of a grenade thrown at the Peace Now demonstration nearly 40 years ago, at which Emil Greenzweig was killed. We don't want to see similar situations.

I am also calling on my brothers on the Left to moderate their messages and style. Yes, even when it comes to the prime minister. The right to protest is part of the right of free speech and freedom of expression, but there are remarks that shouldn't be voiced. It's true that legally, one may use foul language and wish all the evil in the world on others. There is no law that forbids hatred. But please, thy a little cognitive experiment and think for a moment how you would respond if it turned out that some of what you are saying now about Netanyahu and his wife had been uttered about Yitzhak Rabin and his wife back in the day.

Protesting against the prime minister and the government is fine, of course. But when the protests slide toward dangerous talk about "revolution" or "revolt," this is a radical, anti-democratic message that can project violence and bullying toward anyone who thinks or votes differently. A pro-democratic revolution can occur only in places where the people do not have the right to make their own decision at the polls. But calls for revolution or a physical siege on a democratically-elected parliament just because certain circles have trouble accepted the voters' decision as expressed in the make-up of the cabinet and the Knesset, do not align with democratic values.

The right to protest is not the same as a right to revolution, even when some of the protesters see themselves as "the defense and academic elite." In effect, it even contradicts it. The moment that the right to vote and be elected and the right to speak and protest exist in any country, slogans like "revolution" or "siege" send an anti-democratic message, as if someone has the right to change the elected government through violence. Messages like these, by their very nature, create an atmosphere of threat to entire segments of the population, almost calling into question their equal right to have an influence. The leaders of the protesters should make it crystal clear that they respect the results of the election, as expressed in the cabinet and Knesset, in accordance with the second sentence of Rabin's last speech; "In democracy, decisions are made in an election."

In the meantime, we should all dial it down, refrain from violence, calm down and calm others down, and read a little philosophy and history.

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