How is this Ramadan different from all other years? This year, Muslims mark the holy month in the midst of a security escalation, which has been extensively covered by the media since the terrorist attack in Beersheba with which the terror wave began.

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But in reality, the Temple Mount, which has in recent years become the epicenter of Muslim rioting – has been a flashpoint site and a source of security escalations since the 1967 Six-Day War.

The recent calls for violence, coming mostly from the Gaza Strip, to carry on the terror wave in Judea and Samaria and even branch out to Jerusalem, fell on the attentive ears of hundreds of young Muslims, who were just waiting for the order.

In the quiet, deceptive and intoxicating routine, we Israelis tend to forget to pay attention to what is happening on the Temple Mount. In essence, it serves not only as a place of worship, but also a warehouse for weapons, knives, fireworks and explosives – ready to be used against Jews the moment the order is given.

The rioters' ideologies range from supporting the Fatah movement to supporting other Islamic elements, such as ut-Tahrir. Hamas and the Islamic Jihad take advantage of this in order to incite violence against Israelis.

The Palestinian Authority knows that and assists them, even though Jordan is the one officially responsible for holy Muslim sites on the Temple Mount. At least two Waqf officials, Sheikh Ekrima Sabri and Sheikh Najah Bakirat, have for years incited against Israel.

For them, the intervention of the Israeli police is an attack on Islam, and that alone is enough to stir up violence. Therefore, after Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas condemned the Tel Aviv terrorist attack, we cannot expect him to also condemn the riots started by the Muslims on the Temple Mount.

What does it mean in terms of the future? Are we headed toward a repeat of Operation Guardian of the Walls? Doesn't seem so. Hamas, which encouraged escalations in May 2021, is exhibiting restraint at this time. It even prevented the Islamic Jihad from responding to the Jerusalem clashes by firing rockets.

The fact that Egyptian President Abdel-Fattah el-Sissi sent his son to be a mediator also contributed to the calming of the tensions. Israeli Arabs, most of whom condemned the terrorist attacks, are not interested in escalations either.

On social media, the Arab population focuses on the political rift between the Joint Arab List and Ra'am, and it is clear that the majority want Mansour Abbas to be the one to represent them.

Finally, it is important to look at the events themselves as well: Several dozens took part in the riots near Nablus Gate last week, and no more. In the past, it used to be hundreds, if not thousands. This too is a sign that the events are contained, at least for now, to the Temple Mount area.

And yet, Israel, as always, should focus on being wise rather than being right. This means that the government should combine the carrots and the sticks: ease restrictions on Palestinians during Ramadan and send a clear message that the holy month should not be turned into one of chaos. Preventing a de-escalation is the name of the game.

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The string of events over the past month has changed the face of the Middle East. What's behind all this? First, America's strength in the region has weakened in the eyes of leaders in the region. The longstanding backing that Washington has given the Sunni axis (Saudi Arabia, Gulf states, Egypt, and Jordan) has eroded. The hands-off policy that began during the days of President Barack Obama continued into the Trump presidency. The current White House occupant has also adopted a minimalist posture that is reluctant of any military or political engagement, as is clearly demonstrated in the Ukrainian crisis. 

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Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, for example, have treated the US government with suspicion and have refused to deal with it over the coordination of oil output. Their suspicion increased even further after Washington asked to discuss Iran. One implication of the US disengagement is the search for a new global protector. That is why we have seen the rapprochement between the Gulf states and Russia, especially on economic issues. 

The other change is the boosted regional standing Israel has enjoyed as of late. The summit in the Negev between Israel's Foreign Minister Yair Lapid and four of his counterparts from the Arab world is the culmination of the peace process that began in 2020 with the Abraham Accords. The summit underscores the degree to which the Gulf states have acknowledged the benefits of these agreements, especially in that Israel is seen as a bridge to the US, offers advanced technology, and allows for collaboration on a host of issues. With every day that goes by, Israel is seen as less of a foreign entity, and their desire to bolster ties only increases.

Another change can also be noticed: A thawing of relations between Israel and Turkey. Of course, let's not fool ourselves into believing the Turkish president has become a stalwart of Zionism, but it appears that he does indeed want to secure his country's interests and ensure that Jerusalem's regional partnership doesn't come at his expense.

There is another change that has already begun. About a decade ago the region was divided between the "good" and the "bad" actors, but today these terms are no longer valid. In this era of regional turbulence, everyone wants stability, calm, and prosperity. This is one of the reasons the Negev Summit was held and why the United Arab Emirates is trying to become a major regional player, including through mediation efforts in various conflicts. This is also why President Bashar Assad visited the UAE this month. The UAE understands that Assad is here to stay and they want to find a way to exert leverage on him through the Syrian economy. Two days after Assad's visit to the UAE, the crown prince met with Prime Minister Naftali Bennett in Egypt. Although we don't know much about what unfolded in their meeting, it won't be surprising to find out that the UAE is trying to position itself as a mediator between Damascus and Jerusalem. What's changed? A lot. And more will change down the road.

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