The recent wildfire in Maui was the worst such disaster in the US in over a century. Our thoughts and prayers are with families and friends who have lost loved ones. To date there are 115 confirmed deaths and hundreds still missing. What happened? What were the conditions that caused such a horrific event? Could it have been prevented or stopped? Are there lessons for Israel to learn from the disaster?

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The wildfire likely started when a powerline came into contact with highly flammable vegetation. Due to a hurricane in the vicinity, there were sustained winds of over 70 miles per hour. Trying to effectively suppress a wildfire in those conditions is almost impossible.

I am a former field and national manager overseeing wildfire and energy programs for the US Forest Service, and it seems to me that there are a few key reasons why Israel's wildfire risk is different from the situation in Hawaii.

First, most construction in Israel is concrete-based. Wildfires can blow up propane tanks and gas lines and find ways to enter a building, but concrete-based construction is generally less vulnerable than wood-based construction. Unfortunately, wood-based construction is typical in Hawaii and much of the US

Unlike Hawaii, Israel has to contend with a higher percentage of ignitions from arson. Also, Israel can have strong windy conditions, but not sustained winds of hurricane force.

There are two questions Israel should ask:

1) Why were there such highly flammable natural fuels, namely large expanses of African native, buffel, molasses, and guinea grasses growing next to town?

The reason was the demise of pineapple and sugar cane plantations in the 1990s. Subsidies for growing these crops were removed during those years as the US adopted economic policies that were more globally focused, ending support for US growers.

The result was that huge tracts of once-productive irrigated farmland were abandoned, allowing invasive species an opportunity to take hold. These particular species were brought to Hawaii because they were thought to be beneficial for grazing and stabilizing soil. Unfortunately, they were also highly flammable.

Israel can take a lesson from this: It is one more reason to support local Israeli farmers. Agricultural lands surround many Israeli communities and irrigated farmlands surrounding a community protect that community, providing natural wildfire protection. We all appreciate inexpensive produce due to competition, but we must ensure support for a robust local agricultural sector.

In terms of flammable species, some may draw analogies to the JNF/KKL's planting of Aleppo pines in Israel, because they are highly flammable. There are significant differences, however. First, Aleppo pines are native to the Land of Israel. Historically, the land and forests of Israel had been decimated by millennia of overgrazing and a Turkish-built railroad that used almost any tree available. Today, the JNF/KKL is successfully replanting native tree species – many mentioned in the Bible – because the soil has been stabilized by the previously planted pine forests, which provide partial forest cover in which these species can take root.

2) What about the powerlines in Maui, which were the likely ignition source? These powerlines were apparently transporting energy from recently developed renewable sources (wind and solar) to the community. Developing renewable energy may or may not have ecological and economic advantages over traditional sources. However, part of the trade-off analysis and follow-through must involve the maintenance of those powerlines, which includes continuous clearing of vegetation. In the case of Maui, early indications are that the maintenance work was insufficient.

Israel is developing renewable energy sources across its limited landscape: wind in the north and solar in the south. Power from wind farms, solar farms, or solar collectors does not just magically appear in our homes. When analyzing the pros and cons of power generation proposals, transmission plus the cost of adequate powerline maintenance must be part of the analysis.

Hawaii has just provided a horrific lesson from which, God willing, we will all learn. There are many factors that influence wildfire ignition potential and spread, beyond wildfire suppression capabilities. Supporting local Israeli agriculture and carefully reviewing power transmission and maintenance plans are essential to protecting Israel from catastrophic wildfires.

Reprinted with permission from JNS.org.

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Should Israel align with the West and aid Ukraine its fight against the ongoing Russian invasion? Should Israel remain neutral because it needs to coordinate with Russia in Syria in order to defend Israel's northern border? Perhaps the most important question, however, is should Israel consider Ukraine and Russia's treatment of the Jewish people and Israel in making its decision?

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Ukraine, to say the least, has a problematic record in regard to the Jewish people and Israel. During World War II, one-fourth of the Jews murdered in the Holocaust were killed within the modern boundaries of Ukraine, a great many by individual Ukrainian citizens. This included some 1.5 million Jews murdered in what was called the "bullet Holocaust." The Babi Yar massacre – the murder of 33,000 Jews in a single ravine near Kyiv – was carried out by the Nazis in collaboration with Ukrainians.

This wasn't the first time Ukrainians were involved in the mass slaughter of Jews. Several hundred years earlier, Bohdan Khmelnytsky, the Ukrainian Cossack leader, attempted to rid the entire nation of its Jewish population by murdering tens of thousands.

What about today? The Jewish sages held that we shouldn't hold children responsible for the sins of their parents, especially if those children have changed their attitudes. Does Ukraine feel any kind of national remorse over its behavior towards the Jews? The Anti-Defamation League's 2019 global survey of antisemitism put Ukraine near the top of the list of antisemitic nations, with almost half the population (46%) holding anti-Jewish attitudes. That percentage is growing. Contrast this with Germany at 15% and the United States at 10%.

Moreover, Ukraine today has an officially sanctioned brigade in its armed forces that wears swastika armbands. A statue of Khmelnytsky has an honored location in Kyiv and a major boulevard is named after him.

Perhaps Ukraine has decided to address its historical sins by supporting Israel? Unfortunately, no. Ukraine has voted in favor of Israel's enemies on 95 of 122 United Nations resolutions. Recently, it voted for a resolution that criticized Israel for defending itself against rocket barrages from Hamas. Simultaneously, Ukraine demanded that Israel do more to help it in its war with Russia.

What about Russia's sins against the Jews? A little over a century ago, almost three-quarters of world Jewry lived in what was then the Russian Empire. Due to pogroms launched under the Tsars and the expulsion of Jews to Siberian camps under the Soviets, millions of Jews were forced to leave, abandon their faith or be murdered. From a Jewish perspective, Russia's only saving grace is that it at least helped defeat the Nazis.

Today, according to the ADL, one in three Russians (31%) holds antisemitic attitudes. Regarding Israel, other than Russia's UN vote to establish a Jewish state, the record is not good. Indeed, Russia continues to provided significant armaments to Israel's enemies and virtually never votes in support of Israel at the UN.

Should Israel support a country with a long history of anti-Jewish atrocities, in which half the population is antisemitic and the government supports Israel's enemies? Or should Israel support a country with a long history of anti-Jewish atrocities, in which one-third of the population is antisemitic and the government supports Israel's enemies?

Perhaps the only answer is no answer. This may be an excellent opportunity for Israel to continue to do what it does best: Help where it can from a humanitarian perspective and stay out of the political fray. It could also be an opportunity to tell both Ukraine and Russia, privately or publicly, why we are not taking sides, and to convey to them our expectations in regard to changing their peoples' attitudes towards Jews and their support for the Jewish state.

Reprinted with permission from JNS.org.

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Israel has frequently suffered from bouts of national insecurity – of appeasing the predominant world power. For 3,000 years, Israel's leaders have tried to ingratiate themselves with one world power or another, hoping to be saved and, ultimately, to be loved. The results have been disastrous.

If there is a lesson to be learned, it's the benefit that Israel reaps when it acts in its own best interest and in that of its Torah-rooted values, regardless of the views of the world power de jour. Examples in both distant and recent history abound.

At the end of the First Temple period, Zedekiah (Tzidkiyahu in Hebrew) was the King of Israel who thought that the Egyptians would come to his rescue. It didn't happen. Babylonian King Nebuchadnezzar destroyed what was left of Israel.

At the end of the Hasmonean Dynasty in the Second Temple period, it was Antigonus who thought that the Persians (Parthians) would save Israel. Again, it didn't happen.

In 1973, Israeli Prime Minister Golda Meir was waiting for a green light from the United States to preemptively strike Israel's neighbors, who were poised to invade. That didn't happen.

In contrast, in 1967, when Arab armies were set to launch a joint attack, Israel preempted with "Operation Moked," without a green light from Washington. To the surprise of the United States, Israel destroyed its neighbors' airfields. The result, in terms of the saving of Jewish lives, was legendary. Had Prime Minister Levi Eshkol waited for US approval, the result would have been horrific.

Today, Iran is the concern. To be fair, Bennett said that Israel isn't going to outsource its security. In addition, both Israeli Foreign Minister Yair Lapid and US Secretary of State Antony Blinken agreed that the time for diplomacy is running short.

But words are words. How will the Israeli government ultimately act if Iran is not a priority for America? Is Israel going to depend on full US support before taking military action, in the event that it is needed?

If Israel needs to act preemptively against Iran, daylight with the United States may save Israeli lives. Such daylight is important in other realms, as well, including moves that have an impact on Israel's relationship with the Palestinian Authority.

America is continuing to urge Israel to make peace with PA leader Mahmoud Abbas, "paymaster" of the 1972 Munich massacre. Is this in Israel's interest? Does the Biden administration not understand that even the Palestinians don't support Abbas, as a recent survey illustrated that 80 percent of them want him replaced?

Israel's national insecurity seems to characterize all of its governments. During the Trump administration, for example, which coincided with former Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's tenure, Israel would not make any moves regarding the Palestinians without US approval. During the negotiations over former President Donald Trump's "Peace to Prosperity" Mideast plan, one American aide told me that some in the administration were wondering why Israel did not begin to take steps to enhance civil administrative authority in Jewish communities in Judea and Samaria, with or without a peace plan in place. He could not understand why Israel thought it needed a green light from Washington.

There are those who believe that Israel cannot afford daylight, due to its being beholden to the United States for financial reasons, specifically because of an annual $3.8 billion military assistance package. To be clear, the assistance package is important, but it also requires that Israel spend the funding with American military industries on items specified by the United States or on mutually beneficial research and development.

That sum is substantial, as it represents some 20 percent of Israel's current defense budget, which is $18 billion. Its gross national income is approaching $400 billion.

Meanwhile, the Bank of Israel this year is purchasing more than $30 billion in foreign currency in an effort to help Israeli manufacturers cope with an ever-strengthening shekel. Obviously, then, Israel is very grateful for the assistance package.

Yet is worrying about the potential impact on the package worth a policy of "no daylight and no surprises"?

There are many areas in which more daylight may be beneficial. Take education, for instance. In the United States, schools are focused on race and gender issues. American NGOs and exchange programs will attempt to influence Israeli curricula, as well.

Does Israel really wish to follow the US lead where culture is concerned? Does Israel really want its schools teaching fourth graders the merits of gender fluidity? Are these current US values those that Israel wants to pass on? How do traditional Muslim and Christian Israelis feel about the potential spread of these values to their schools?

Health care is another area in which more daylight may help. During the current COVID-19 crisis, the Israeli Health Ministry has frequently sought the direction and policies of the Food and Drug Administration and the World Health Organization. While it's important to seek the best advice, can Israel not chart the best path for itself?

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Israel has some of the best scientists in the world, and it was at the forefront of vaccine procurement. Yet what if Israel had not put all its eggs in the vaccine basket and, in addition to vaccines, had also focused on early-onset and other treatment options?

Israel has much to learn from the US and excellent reasons to carefully consider its requests and guidance. (Conversely, the United States also has much to learn from Israel.)

Nevertheless, Israel should not strive to be the 51st state. If history is anything to go by, this will not go well. A little more daylight will ensure a better outcome.

Reprinted with permission from JNS.org.

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Political strategists in the United States who were working against the Trump administration deduced that the best way to be victorious in November was to stay away from issues and focus on personality. They were successful.

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Fifty-six percent of then-candidate Joe Biden's voters said that the main reason they voted for him was because he was not President Donald Trump. Only nine percent polled by Pew said that their vote had to do with Biden's positions.

Some of those same US strategists, such as the Lincoln Project, which until recently had been advising Israeli New Hope Party leader Gideon Sa'ar's campaign, are trying to steer Israeli voters away from issues, as well, thus reinforcing the "anybody but Bibi [Netanyahu]" camp that has been gaining momentum since the first round of Knesset elections nearly two years ago.

The main issue that heads of parties are being asked by Israel's mainstream media is: "Will you serve in a government led by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu or not?"

Hopefully, Israeli voters will see through this ruse and focus on issues of major import to the nation's future.

What are these issues? Where do the current candidates stand them? If they want us to hire them to lead the government, they need to answer the following questions:

How do you plan to stand up to the existential threat of a potential nuclear, terrorist-supporting Iran, in light of overtures to Tehran from the Biden administration?

What is your plan to proactively stop Palestinian incitement to the murder of Jews, and what will you do to prevent the "creation of the next terrorist," rather than waiting to pay the next shiva call?

How will you require or encourage greater Haredi participation in the military or, alternatively, in community service? Are you willing to meet with the Haredi leadership to try and resolve this and other issues?

What is your view of the judicial system and its rulings, and what about the introduction of jury trials?

What is your plan for the communities of Judea and Samaria? Do you believe in applying civil law, without the need for the military to be involved, in minor expansion plans? Will you take action to protect against ongoing encroachments by the Palestinian Authority? Does your long-term vision include the principles of the Oslo Accord principles or not?

What can you do to lower the cost of housing?

What is your plan to broaden the Abraham Accords?

What is your position on upholding Torah values? Do you support imitating the US when it comes to "gender fluidity?

How will you manage the COVID-19 crisis? Do you favor increasing or reducing restrictions in the near future?

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If Israeli voters knew where Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, New Hope leader Gideon Sa'ar, Yamina leader Naftali Bennett, Yesh Atid chief Yair Lapid, Shas head Aryeh Deri, and Religious Zionist Party leader Bezalel Smotrich stood on these and other issues, they would be able to make an intelligent decision.

A campaign is a job interview. Tell us why we should hire you. Israeli voters must demand what Americans did not.

Gary Schiff is a resource consultant connecting Israel and the US.

Reprinted with permission from JNS.org.

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There is a massive gulf in public opinion regarding the latest US election and whether the American election system is flawed or not. Those who voted for former Vice President Joe Biden are convinced that there were no abnormalities. Those who supported the president are either concerned about election tampering or convinced the election was stolen.

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After all of the investigations are complete, regardless of the outcome, there will still be a significant percentage of the US electorate that will likely remain unconvinced. In light of this, it may well make sense for Americans to look at other voting systems. Israel's should be a model to consider.

Given Israel's high-tech prowess, one might imagine that its election would also be a high-tech experience with instantaneous results. Yet, the reality is quite the contrary. An Israeli election more closely resembles a high school election for student council president.

Voters typically come to their local school and are checked in by a paid election commission employee flanked on both sides by representatives of the political parties. After showing their ID card, they receive an envelope. Then they go behind a screen and pick the paper card that represents their political party or candidate. They put the piece of paper in the envelope. They come out from behind the screen and then in front of everyone put the envelope in a simple cardboard box with a slit in the top.

After voting concludes for the day, the same poll watchers open the envelopes, count the paper slips and together with the paid staff, report the totals. They also need to confirm that the number of envelopes collected is equal to the number of those who entered the "classroom."

According to Marty Ingall, a poll watcher for Zehut at a Jerusalem precinct in the last election, "it was a very pleasant experience.  At one point, we were off by one vote. When we cross-checked, we recounted and found the error. We finished our work just after midnight."

While the United States allows US citizens living in Israel to vote remotely, Israel does not let Israeli citizens not physically present in Israel to vote. A small number of Israelis who live overseas actually make it a point to fly to Israel for election day. Israel does not have an early voting process or mail-in process. Election Day in Israel is also a holiday, so there is no pressure to find time to vote. The day has the atmosphere of a celebration of democracy and reflects the belief that regardless of the outcome, with help from above, Israel will survive.

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That isn't to say that the Israeli system doesn't have its problems. Yet, given the accusations flying in America, it may be time to look at a different model. The level of distrust in the United States can be a cancer, eating at its foundations. Democracy only works if citizens trust the electoral process. Israel may have something to teach the United States in this regard.

Reprinted with permission from JNS.org

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No doubt some of the statues represent individuals who defended slavery or perpetrated crimes against members of minority communities and should be considered for removal. Yet others are being ripped down over one or two statements or missteps the person made over a lifetime; their significant contributions are being unceremoniously discarded.

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This phenomenon is dizzying to witness. It feels like America is losing its moorings.

Underlying this trend is unfortunately an ignorance of what many of these heroes have contributed to America's success. From a Jewish perspective, many of America's heroes were also heroes for the Jewish people and supported Torah values, even with their flaws.

Interestingly though, Israel, due to the biblical prohibition on carving human images, has few statues. Nevertheless, most Israelis know about the country's heroes and what they contributed, without statues needed as reminders. One shining and very public example illustrating the importance Israel places on its heroes and foundational documents is the country's Bible contest. Its finale is overseen by both the prime minister and the president and is the annual closing highlight of Israel's Independence Day festivities. Imagine if the US president (Democrat or Republican) were to preside over a similar contest, testing students on their knowledge of America's heroes and America's foundational documents in a live broadcast on July 4.

Israel's military has educational requirements. First of all, army or national service is compulsory, and part of the training is an understanding of ancient and recent history. Imagine if America had such an armed forces or national service requirement. Imagine if it also had a similar accompanying educational program where Americans at that age had the opportunity to visit battlegrounds and foundational historic sites, including the less than savory aspects.

Israel recognizes that all of her heroes have flaws. Whether we are speaking about modern-day heroes or biblical heroes, all are ultimately human. The single-minded focus of David Ben-Gurion was arguably the driving force for the miraculous rebirth of the State of Israel, yet his policy for the absorption and treatment of Yemenite immigrants was a black spot on his reputation. Even Moses, the greatest of them all, who led us out of Egypt to the Promised Land and brought us the Torah from God, lost his temper and was punished for it. Israelis study it all; contributions and flaws.

Which brings us back to some of the recent statue-tossing in America.

Christopher Columbus's statue in Baltimore was recently toppled by a mob and unceremoniously tossed into the Inner Harbor. Columbus changed the world. Some historians say he may have been Jewish. Most historians believe that much of his crew were Jewish as they were escaping the unimaginable horrors of the Spanish Inquisition.

Imagine if those seeking relief from tyranny, starvation, or religious persecution around the world had had no outlet. Imagine if there had been no escape from the pogroms of eastern Europe or the Irish famine. At the same time, we can appreciate the deleterious impact his arrival had on the native population both in terms of disease and ultimately appropriation of land.

In Potomac, Maryland, there is a move afoot to rename Churchill High School. Arguably, Winston Churchill was the single driving force leading England, America, and her allies in the fight against the Nazi empire. Can you imagine if the allies had lost World War II? Churchill spearheaded the defeat of arguably the most evil force in all of human history. Our fathers and grandfathers fought and died for the great cause he championed. Yet others are understandably concerned about remarks he made about the Indian people, as well as policies that had truly unfortunate impacts in British colonial Africa.

The American Museum of Natural History in New York and the city's mayor have decided to take down the Teddy Roosevelt statue in front of the museum. Roosevelt founded America's National Forests and National Parks. The National Forests comprise 10 percent of the continental US land base, and the US Forest Service is the role model for forest conservation and wildfire fighting for the world. The National Parks are America's national scenic jewels.

Further, as Dr. Joseph Frager noted in a recent article in Israel National News, Roosevelt was the first president to invite a black leader to dine with him at the White House. He was the first president to appoint a Jew to a Cabinet post. He made Oscar Solomon Strauss the US Secretary of Commerce and Labor. He opposed labeling Jews as a separate race on their passports. He said, "I should no more have a man entered on a passport as a Hebrew than as an Episcopalian, or a Baptist, or a Roman Catholic."

In 1903, he issued a strong rebuke to the Russian czar after the murder of 49 Jews in the Kishinev Pogrom. He publicly supported the Balfour Declaration and a Jewish state surrounding Jerusalem.

Yet the statue shows President Roosevelt on a horse flanked by a black and native American in subservient positions, and over his career, he made statements that were hurtful to minorities.

In Wisconsin, the statue of Hans Christian Heg was torn down. Heg was actually a key leader in advocating for the abolition of slavery. Nevertheless, protesters tore it down to "call attention to Wisconsin's racially unjust history." Their motivation is baffling.

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The objective of remembering America's heroes should be an honest assessment of their contributions and their impacts, both positive and negative. Many of America's heroes are members of the minority community and need to be better highlighted. The objective should be to increase understanding and appreciation of these people and what they accomplished.

There is a Jewish concept called "hakarat hatov." It literally means "recognizing the good." Practically speaking, it means appreciating those who helped us to where we are today, both as individuals and as a nation. "If not for what they did for me, I would not be here or we would not be here."

Some of those to whom we owe such appreciation are still with us today, but many are not. As America's monuments are being attacked by mobs and its institutions renamed, Americans should not lose their appreciation for her heroes and what they helped create. America should not lose its hakarat hatov. If America can increase its appreciation for what its heroes accomplished, recognizing their flaws, and pass that on to the next generation, God willing, it will ultimately reclaim its moorings.

Reprinted with permission from JNS.org

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There are between 550 and 630 million evangelical Christians worldwide, most of whom are active supporters of Israel. Add to that a host of other nations and religious groups which support Israel, including most Jews. In the '60s American Jews and supporters of Israel went out of their way looking for the "Jaffa" label on oranges in order to support Israel. The same sentiment is alive and well and today, and could grow stronger. Depending upon the product, it may actually be increasingly advantageous to identify products as "made in Israel." Think of BDS as "Buy Directly from Samaria."

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As important as it is to disclose where a product is made, equally of interest is to know where it was developed or invented. According to Michael Eisenberg, leading venture capitalist with the ALEPH group, the BDS movement has actually helped "highlight Israel's innovation efforts on behalf of all humanity." He believes the need to help motivates Israeli entrepreneurs. "BDS is anti-Semitism and the best way to counter it and its hatefulness is through innovation and caring," he said.

Amazingly, today there are over 250 research and development centers in Israel owned by multinational companies. As we know, cell phones and computers have key components developed in Israel. WAZE, Flash drives and the cherry tomato were developed in Israel. The leading forest wildfire retardant was developed there. Drone programs that track everything from border security to the health of trees in an orange grove are being developed there. Flexible stents for heart patients were developed there. The list is long and growing and much of the world increasingly understands this.

In a backhanded way, the BDS movement has focused attention on Israeli ingenuity and its positive impact. Increasing knowledge of what Israel is developing and the increased labeling of Israeli products may actually build greater connections and support.

What about energy labeling? Who could have predicted that Israel would be exporting natural gas? Israeli solar and geothermal technology provides critical renewable energy around the globe. On the flip side, those who support Israel may not want to purchase energy from countries sworn to its destruction. The implications of full disclosure in the energy sector would seem to help Israel's economy and present a challenge to those governments who threaten us.

There may be long-term benefits should Egyptian and European gas customers see a note on their monthly statements identifying Israel as the source country. It may help normalize relations. Oil is often traded on the high seas based on real-time demand at refineries around the world. Nevertheless, if companies better labeled and publicized their sources, realizing this could impact how oil is traded, perhaps it could have an impact.

More disclosure would also help combat the core BDS argument. The typical anti-BDS argument is defensive, boiling down to "Israel's really not that bad" when compared to many other countries. Israelis, as well as Jews around the world, should want something much better than this. How about "Israel is a role model that other nations should emulate"?

No country rushes to aid nations in need of the way that Israel does. No other country provides heart surgery for children from all over the world, many from hostile countries. No country would bend over backward the way Israel does to help a population the leaders of which are actively seeking its destruction. No country in a similar situation would be providing energy and water to Gaza, or funding transportation and infrastructure projects in Arab communities in Judea and Samaria.

The vast majority of employment for Arabs living in Judea and Samaria is on the Israeli side of the security barrier. For example, many are Israeli-trained doctors, nurses, and pharmacists. As time goes on, there will likely be an increasing number of Arab citizens who will be willing to proudly speak up without fear of reprisal and tout the benefits of living in Israel.

The Prime Minister's Office can also effectively support both offensive and defensive long-term disclosure strategies. For example, if a country in Europe were to consider a national boycott policy against Israel or parts of Israel, can the prime minister appeal directly to Israel's supporters, for example, evangelical Christians across the globe, to support Israeli products made in those areas?

Israel may underestimate its friends' willingness to help and what harnessing their buying power could mean.

Fighting BDS is important. Israel and its supporters may want to press forward with at least as much effort in an offensive long-term strategy. Increased labeling and disclosure can provide important results for Israel.

Reprinted with permission from JNS.org.

The post Turning BDS into 'Buy directly from Samaria' appeared first on www.israelhayom.com.

Security cooperation is a cornerstone of the 1993 Oslo Accords – which have proven disastrous for Israel. Thousands of Israelis have been murdered in terrorist attacks as a result of this misguided effort.

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According to the National Insurance Institute's 2007 document "Civilian Casualties of Acts of Hatred," the average number of Israeli fatalities due to terrorist attacks before the accords was 12.5 per year. After the accords, that figure shot up to 106 per year.

Maybe it's time to begin to phase out these horrendous agreements and work towards a better solution for both Palestinians and Israelis.

One potential solution is to find a way of transitioning to working directly with local Palestinian community leadership, bypassing the PA on security and other matters. PA security forces can ultimately be supervised locally.

This is not a new idea. Prior to Oslo, this was the Israeli military's recommended plan, but at the time neither the Israeli nor the American governments were supportive.

The PA's security budget is over $1 billion a year, which includes salaries for an estimated 35,000 to 42,000 security personnel in over half a dozen organizations. The PA leads the world in security personnel per residents (only the Vatican and a few islands have higher ratios). Moreover, while the PA's security cooperation with Israel has saved some lives, according to the Euro-Med Human Rights Monitoring project there are serious issues with the PA's record on human rights.

Of significant concern, for example, is the PA's policy of imprisoning those publicly critical of the PA leadership. In addition, $300 million per year, or 7% to 10% or the PA's annual budget, is spent in stipends to terrorists in Israeli prisons, and to the families of terrorists that died in attacks against Israel.

Further PA funding goes to support the salary of many Muslim preachers, or imams. Their Friday sermons are often based on PA-provided talking points, and their incitement can lead to murder. Even the United Nations has voiced concerns about hate speech emanating from PA leadership, and about that hate speech finding its way into school textbooks.

Here are several other reasons to support the idea of phasing out the PA:

The idea of a singular Palestinian people is a recently created one. Culturally, those who live in Hebron have little in common, and little affection for, those who live in Ramallah. The same is true for each of the major enclaves throughout Judea and Samaria.

According to Harold Rhode, the former adviser on Islamic affairs in the Office of the US Defense Secretary, the families of one city in Judea and Samaria will not let their children marry those from another city in Judea and Samaria, so high is the contempt with which they view each other. Their family connections are with sister cities directly east in Jordan, not with cities in Judea and Samaria.

Dr. Mordechai Kedar, a noted Israeli expert on Islamic culture, is advocating for a demilitarized "Palestinian emirates" concept for this exact reason. He notes that that the place of greatest peace and stability in the Middle East is where each tribe governs itself; i.e., the United Arab Emirates.

One would think that because of the PA's ability to attract billions in aid, important infrastructure projects and parks would be built and hence they would be well supported by the Palestinian people. Yet recent polls by the Palestinian Coalition for Accountability and Integrity show that a whopping 81% of Palestinians do not trust the PA government.

Other polls indicate that almost two-thirds want Abbas to resign. Abbas, who is 14 years into a four-year term, has a reported net worth of over $100 million (according to Muhammad Rashid, head of the Palestinian Investment Fund). "Castles" dot Judea and Samaria where the Palestinian leadership lives. Abbas recently purchased a $50 million airplane and was building a $17.5 million home on a palatial estate, with four stories and two helicopter pads, until the "Palestinian street" erupted. Following the "eruption" the PA leadership decided the estate would serve as a library.

Finally, underlying the territorial dispute between Israel and the Palestinians there is a religious dispute. The Koran calls for advancing Muslim law around the world. Israel was, for a time, under Muslim law, and now is not. This is forbidden in Islam.

At the same time, Muslim leaders respect strength and religious Jews who understand their culture and speak their language. If there were some level of local stability, there might be a chance for dialogue among local religious leaders. For example, in Hebron, there is an occasional spark of such discussion between religious Jews and religious Muslims. There is little chance of any type of dialogue, however, when the PA leadership incentivizes the killing of Jews and maintains a singular focus on destroying the Jewish state.

Both Arabs and Jews stand to gain much by Israel transitioning to a different peace partner; namely the individual cities of Judea and Samaria. Working directly with local leaders instead of the PA could be the first step. So the next time Abbas proposes canceling security cooperation, and hence the Oslo Accords, perhaps we should agree with him and pursue a more viable alternative.

Reprinted with permission from JNS.org.

The post Abbas is right: It's time to phase out the PA appeared first on www.israelhayom.com.

If trends continue, in 20 years the majority of the world's Jews will be living in Israel. The United States will see a continuing decline in overall numbers, with a growing observant Jewish population based in larger communities. That said, a major flaw in demographic projections is their failure to account for the impact of individuals on the course of history.

First, though, let's start with the trends.

The overall U.S. fertility rate has been on a downward slide for some time, and according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention now stands at 1.7 births per woman, which is obviously below what is needed for replacement. 2018 showed the lowest birth rate in the United States in over three decades.

Replacement is important for family and religious reasons, but also for economic reasons, particularly for the nation as a whole, if for no other reason than to provide a tax base to support an aging population. Also, according to a recent March of Dimes study, last year, 43% of new births in the United States were to mothers receiving Medicaid assistance, many of whom are single mothers. Barring a dramatic change in birth rates or immigration, the overall U.S. population in 20 years will be smaller and potentially poorer.

There are an estimated 5.7 million Jews living in the United States, the majority of whom are unaffiliated or in the non-Orthodox movements. The fertility rate for non-Orthodox Jews is estimated to be even lower than that of the general U.S. population, and the intermarriage rate has been measured to be as low as 44% and as high as 72% (with only a small percentage of intermarried families observing Jewish traditions).

Nevertheless, the birth rate among the U.S. Orthodox population is over four children per couple. A recent Pew study notes that the Orthodox population is also much younger. In the older generation, only 5% are Orthodox. In the current "parent" generation, 15% are Orthodox and in the "child" generation, 27% are being raised in Orthodox homes.

If trends continue, the overall number of Jews in the United States will decline over the next two decades, and then begin to rise in the following decades due to higher birth rates among the more observant families. In perhaps 50 years, if trends continue, the United States will be home to the same number of Jews as today, but those Jews will be more observant and congregated in larger communities.

In Israel, The Ettinger Report recently showed the Jewish population hovering around 7 million. According to the latest report from Israel's Central Bureau of Statistics, Jewish Israeli birth rates are increasing in both the Sephardi and Ashkenazi non-haredi sectors. (The birth rate in the haredi sector is decreasing but still at 6.7 per couple.) Overall Jewish fertility rates are 3.1 births per woman and climbing.

Today, slightly over half of Israeli Jews are non-Ashkenazim – Mizrahim, Sephardim and others. In 20 years, through intermarriage, such distinctions will be more difficult to determine and track.

In addition, the Jewish Agency for Israel reported that almost 30,000 Jews from across the globe made aliyah last year, up 5% from the previous year. While many of them are Jews from Russia, Ukraine and France, Jews have been returning from over 100 countries, speaking 80 different languages.

According to The Ettinger Report, if Judea and Samaria were to be annexed to Israel, Arabs would comprise one-third of the total Israeli population, but the report also noted significant out-migration and a declining Arab-sector birth rate (although the birth rate is still around 3 children per couple). The report notes significant issues with overcounting and double-counting in the Arab sector.

The challenge with any type of population prediction, however, is accounting for the impact of individuals. A study of the Jewish population in 1875 would have shown 10 million Jews worldwide, the majority, perhaps three-fourths, in Eastern Europe and the rest in Middle East, North Africa, the Americas, and elsewhere.

Who would have predicted the impact of Lenin or Stalin or the rise of Hitler? Conversely, who would have predicted the impact of a newspaper reporter named Theodor Herzl?

Did anyone in 1950 predict the impact of the Lubavitcher rebbe, Rabbi Menachem Mendel Schneerson, and other major rabbinic outreach efforts in bringing unaffiliated Jews back into the fold? (In Israel alone, there are an estimated 300,000 Jews who have returned to some form of Jewish observance.)

Did anyone foresee the return of millions of Jews from Arab lands to Israel?

How about the rise of the ayatollahs in Iran and the exodus of Persian Jews, many of whom trace their roots to the time of Mordechai and Esther? Did anyone foresee a Hollywood actor becoming a U.S. president and successfully challenging the Soviet communist empire, which ultimately brought some 1 million Russian Jews back to Israel? Who could have predicted the impact of Pastor John Hagee in America, and his inspiration to millions of Christians across the world to support Israel and for Jews returning to Israel?

How heavenly forces are interacting with these efforts to steer our people back to Israel is unclear but that these and many other individuals have altered the Jewish demographic path is undeniable.

In 20 years, projections based on current population growth rates show the Jewish population in Israel approaching 9 million and in the United States dropping below 5 million. Will government and spiritual leaders impact the overall U.S. fertility rate? Will anti-Semitic leaders in the United States, Canada and the U.K. cause aliyah to increase significantly from these traditional safe havens? Will sympathetic U.S. leaders, organizations and the forces they inspire continue to protect Jews and continue to be effective in supporting Israel?

No one can predict how the next two decades will unfold for the U.S., Israel and the Jewish people, but the continuation of the "ingathering" in the Promised Land seems likely to continue unabated. We can only hope and pray that this ingathering will unfold as peacefully as possible.

This article is reprinted with permission from JNS.org.

The post What will the Jewish world look like in 20 years? appeared first on www.israelhayom.com.

In light of the upcoming unveiling of U.S. President Donald Trump's upcoming "deal of the century," this would seems like an opportune time to reflect on what Begin actually proposed as a peace plan to residents of Judea, Samaria and the Gaza Strip.

At the Menachem Begin Heritage Center in Jerusalem, visitors can hear Begin's approach straight from the source. In a video presentation at the museum, in response to a reporter's question about his intentions with regard to making peace with Arabs in Judea, Samaria and Gaza, he says unequivocally that Israel has no desire to rule over those communities and that they should have the right of self-determination.

According to his Dec. 28, 1977 plan:

• An 11-member administrative council based in Bethlehem would be created, presumably representing various communities, with set terms and term limits.
• Residents of Judea, Samaria and Gaza would have the opportunity to choose Israeli or Jordanian citizenship, assuming they met certain requirements and commitments.
• These areas would also be open to Jewish settlement, but only those who chose to be citizens of Israel could acquire land.
• Israel would proclaim sovereignty over Judea, Samaria and Gaza, with the details of this move to be worked out in the future.
• There would be guaranteed access to all religious sites.
• Israel would retain all security responsibilities.

Unfortunately, most of the elements of Begin's proposal have either been ignored or abused.

Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas has significantly exceeded the term for which he was elected. He has demanded a Palestinian capital in what subsequent Israeli prime ministers have referred to as the "eternal Jewish capital of Jerusalem."

Abbas has demanded "Palestinian" citizenship, not Israeli or Jordanian. He has claimed sovereignty over all of Judea, Samaria and Gaza and speaks to his own audience about the ultimate desire to reacquire all of Israel.

It is only with army protection that Jews can visit our religious holy sites; Joseph's Tomb, Joshua's Tomb, among many others.

The components of Begin's plan were considered for inclusion in the Israeli-Egypt peace plan, but Egypt–apparently reflecting certain elements in the Palestinian street–ultimately did not agree. After the peace agreement was concluded, the Israeli military proposed granting individual communities self-government and working directly with locally elected leaders, but that was never implemented. Then came the 1993 Oslo Accords, which created the Palestinian Authority and resulted in decades of anti-Jewish terrorism–terrorism that is encouraged and incentivized by the PA to this day.

We will soon see the Trump administration's peace plan, and Israel needs to have a response ready. Should we look to Begin's ideas in creating our response? Shouldn't Israel insist on safe and uncontested access to our holy sites? Should Palestinian, or only Israeli or Jordanian citizenship be an option? And what of Begin's principle of self-determination? We know that polling data indicates two-thirds of east Jerusalem residents would prefer to be part of Israel in any future scenario, not part of a Palestinian state. Can self-determination be part of the discussion?

For Begin, Israel's security was obviously paramount. He was, however, clear in his desire not to rule over the day-to-day lives of our Arab neighbors, as well as clear on the importance of protecting our Jewish communities and Jewish religious sites in Judea and Samaria. We might do well to consider some of his principles in developing our response.

This article is reprinted with permission from JNS.org.

The post What would Menachem Begin do? appeared first on www.israelhayom.com.