Israel Kasnett/JNS – www.israelhayom.com https://www.israelhayom.com israelhayom english website Sun, 03 Sep 2023 06:38:29 +0000 en-US hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=6.4.2 https://www.israelhayom.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/cropped-G_rTskDu_400x400-32x32.jpg Israel Kasnett/JNS – www.israelhayom.com https://www.israelhayom.com 32 32 Abraham Accords, 3 years on https://www.israelhayom.com/2023/09/03/abraham-accords-3-years-on/ https://www.israelhayom.com/2023/09/03/abraham-accords-3-years-on/#respond Sun, 03 Sep 2023 06:36:47 +0000 https://www.israelhayom.com/?p=905637   Almost three years have elapsed since the signing of the Abraham Accords on the White House lawn. Everything appeared to be progressing smoothly until last month, when a planned visit of Israeli Foreign Minister Eli Cohen to Bahrain was postponed due to "scheduling issues." Follow Israel Hayom on Facebook, Twitter, and Instagram This set […]

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Almost three years have elapsed since the signing of the Abraham Accords on the White House lawn. Everything appeared to be progressing smoothly until last month, when a planned visit of Israeli Foreign Minister Eli Cohen to Bahrain was postponed due to "scheduling issues."

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This set off concerns that Israel's relationship with Manama is unstable. Critics at the time blamed the alleged cooling of relations on Israel's security policy in Judea and Samaria, conflicts between Israelis and Palestinians in Hawara and incidents like the ascent of government ministers to the Temple Mount.

Video: Netanyahu says MBS contributed to the signing of the Abraham Accords / Credit: Facebook

However, the reality seems to diverge from this narrative. Although no concrete explanation was provided for Cohen's postponed visit, it is evident that the diplomatic, economic and security ties between the two nations are progressing in a mutually satisfactory manner.

Eitan Na'eh, Israel's ambassador to Bahrain, told JNS that while there is still opposition to the Accords in the Gulf state, "We are seeing those numbers decreasing."

Furthermore, opponents of the normalization agreement "tend to raise their voices because of the positive result of the Accords, so we choose to look at it through a positive lens," he said.

The impact of the Accords is reverberating throughout the region – even in countries which Israel doesn't currently have relations with, said Na'eh.

"There is a new discourse and narrative regarding Israel, in which some Arab thought leaders and even government officials are talking and writing about how Israel is very much a part of this region and its economic, energy, communication and security architecture," he said.

Recent headlines about a looming Israeli-Saudi normalization agreement have been accompanied by headlines about the Saudi-Palestinian relationship and the demands and conditions the Palestinians are trying to set regarding any future Saudi deal with Israel.

However, a poll commissioned by The Washington Institute for Near East Policy and conducted in July by the Palestinian Center for Public Opinion shows a meaningful contrast between Palestinian viewpoints and those of people in Arab countries – as well as differences among Palestinians themselves.

A poll in April found that an average of just 16% of respondents in Arab countries viewed the Abraham Accords as "somewhat" or "very" positive for the region. Notably, attitudes in Gaza and eastern Jerusalem were starkly different, with 47% in Gaza and 63% in eastern Jerusalem expressing a positive view of the Accord's regional impact.

According to Frances McDonough, a research assistant at WINEP, in the July poll "a solid majority in all three locations – 58% in Gaza, 61% in the West Bank and 64% in East Jerusalem – agree with the following statement: 'Arab governments are neglecting the Palestinians and starting to make friends with Israel, because they think the Palestinians should be more willing to compromise.'"

Interestingly, according to McDonough, "a significant number of Gazans and some West Bankers agree that Palestinian leadership should normalize with Israel were Saudi Arabia to do so."

While the April poll showed lower approval of the Accords, it seems that is slowly changing, and that more and more people in Arab and Muslim countries are warming to the idea that Israel is an ally – not an enemy.

Houda Nonoo, Bahrain's former ambassador to the United States, told JNS, "Like with any change, some people take longer to acclimate than others, and we have seen that here as well." However, she said that the focus should be on the "positive momentum," and "how there is excitement in the air and anticipation for all that the Abraham Accords can bring to the people of Bahrain and Israel."

She added: "I believe the goal of the Abraham Accords remains the same – to bring peace and prosperity to us all. We will continue to see a focus on economic and business partnerships as well as tourism and people-to-people activities."

Nonoo told JNS she is excited by the increased interest in academic exchanges between the two countries.

"We are seeing more collaboration and exchanges in the healthcare sector, which is also very promising," she added. "As we look to the next phase of the Bahrain-Israel relationship, I am excited by the opportunity to continue sharing knowledge and resources."

Nonoo is optimistic about the future. "Each day as more and more Bahrainis and Israelis interact with each other, more and more people are comfortable with the change, and that's a win!" she said.

"I believe the third anniversary of the Abraham Accords is the most significant one yet," she added. "The first two years were about laying the foundations in diplomacy, business, tourism and people-to-people relations, but this past year was about furthering those relationships to create a more integrated region."

She expressed her hope that year four would continue the momentum.

"The Abraham Accords ushered in a new chapter for the Middle East and we are seeing its positive impact not only in the signatory countries but in the region more broadly. A more integrated region provides more opportunities for us all, especially for the youth of the region," she said.

According to Na'eh, the coronavirus pandemic played a big role in some of the setbacks Israel and Bahrain faced, "as it led to a slower start as economies were shut down for periods of time."

"However," he continued, "it was exciting that after lockdowns were lifted and business resumed, Israel then had access to three new markets as a result of the Accords – Bahrain, Morocco and the United Arab Emirates. Similarly, these three had access to the Israeli market."

The Abraham Accords are the first step to a more integrated Middle East, he said.

"Over the past three years, we have seen the impact that trips to Israel have made on Bahrainis. I often meet with them after their trips, and they share stories about their experience meeting with Israelis, tasting Israeli cuisine and learning about its culture. They note how their perception of Israel and its people changed after their visit, and I hope that more and more people from Bahrain – and the region more broadly – will visit and see what the real Israel is."

Na'eh said that as he looks to the future, he is inspired by the number of young people excited about the opportunities ahead, and by the many business people traveling back and forth.

"We will soon see more efforts to increase tourism from both sides, more business partnerships and trade, and connectivity by land, air and sea," he said. "Critical to our success is collaboration, harnessing technology and other capabilities to solve today's and future problems and create new opportunities."

Other countries have seen success as well thanks to the Accords.

According to Deputy Mayor of Jerusalem Fleur Hassan-Nahoum, "Whereas the first two years were about celebrating the many 'firsts', this past year was about concretizing the relationships made and focusing on a more integrated region."

The first FemForward MENA cohort had brought together women in the tech sector from Morocco and Israel, she said. The program was launched three years ago to address the lack of career advancement opportunities for women.

"We're hoping to launch additional cohorts with women from Bahrain and the UAE as well," she said.

Ahmed Bin Sulayem, executive chairman and CEO of the Dubai Multi Commodities Centre (DMCC), said that Dubai is "fast becoming the next big global hub for Israelis to do business."

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"This is reflected in the soaring numbers of Israeli companies setting up in Dubai, and we see the impact every day in DMCC, where there has been a 42% increase in new Israeli members since the beginning of this year," he said.

Dorian Barak, co-founder of the UAE-Israel Business Council, also seems optimistic about Israel's future relationship with Gulf countries.

"We will far exceed $3 billion in bilateral trade in 2023, and this doesn't count much of the trade Israelis conduct through the UAE with counterparties across the Arab world, South Asia and beyond," he said. "Israel's trade with, in and through the UAE – i.e. the full measure of the trade relationship – will certainly exceed $5 billion by 2025," he predicted.

Avi Melamed, a former Israeli intelligence official, said, "Israel now has true partners in the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain, which has led to many organic business collaborations between Israelis and citizens of other GCC countries. It's a matter of when – not if – Oman, Qatar and Saudi Arabia will establish relations with Israel as we all work together toward this vision of an integrated Middle East."

Reprinted with permission from JNS.org.

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New initiative aims to change anti-Israel discourse among black Americans https://www.israelhayom.com/2022/07/14/new-initiative-aims-to-change-anti-israel-discourse-among-black-americans/ https://www.israelhayom.com/2022/07/14/new-initiative-aims-to-change-anti-israel-discourse-among-black-americans/#respond Thu, 14 Jul 2022 10:22:43 +0000 https://www.israelhayom.com/?p=825381   A new peace initiative aims to counter the racialization of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict currently dominant in North American discourse. Follow Israel Hayom on Facebook, Twitter, and Instagram The Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs has partnered with the Institute for Black Solidarity with Israel to fight the anti-Israel narrative that has swept across America and […]

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A new peace initiative aims to counter the racialization of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict currently dominant in North American discourse.

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The Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs has partnered with the Institute for Black Solidarity with Israel to fight the anti-Israel narrative that has swept across America and is being further spread by anti-Israel groups such as Black Lives Matter and antisemitic figures like Nation of Islam leader Louis Farrakhan.

The intensifying crisis between African-Americans and Jews – both in the United States and when it comes to Israel – has reached dangerous heights. Farrakhan calls Jews and Israel "Satan," and the BLM movement and its self-avowed Marxist-Leninist leaders have triggered a tsunami of antisemitic incidents across America in general and among black Americans specifically.

Now, IBSI wants to reclaim the community from BLM, and to that end is partnering with the JCPA to restore the legacy of Martin Luther King Jr. and to effectively neutralize BLM's efforts to turn the blacks against Israel.

As per the JCPA, before this initiative, "no think tank or policy institute in Israel has analyzed and offered policy solutions to this serious challenge to Israel and the global Jewish community."

Nation of Islam leader Louis Farrakhan (AP via Ashlee Rezin/Chicago Sun-Times)

Attorney Olga Meshoe Washington, a board member of IBSI and a US-based pro-Israel activist, spoke on a panel at the JCPA on Monday with the founder and CEO of IBSI Pastor Dumisani Washington (her father-in-law) joining via Zoom. They discussed possible solutions, including their policy partnership with the JCPA and its counter-political warfare program under the direction of senior JCPA scholar Dan Diker, former CEO of the World Jewish Congress.

Washington slammed BLM for turning black Americans against Israel and hijacking the claim of apartheid, racializing Israel's conflict with the Palestinians when, in fact, it has nothing to do with race.

Her goal is for blacks to reclaim their own identity and empower themselves. She explained that by educating young people, IBSI can bring about a change in the mentality among the public, as well as the attitude of diplomats toward Israel at, for instance, the United Nations.

She lambasted the UN Human Rights Council for obsessing over the Palestinians when, at present, Africa is the focus of international terrorism.

She also fretted that African leaders contribute wrongly to the conversation about Israel, the BDS movement, racism, and Zionism when they accuse Israel of being an apartheid state.

"That contribution, if we look at how the vast majority of people feel, doesn't represent the ordinary person on the ground. Our contribution is not voluntary, it is without our permission," she said. "The work that we have to do – the work that IBSI is doing, together with the JCPA – is taking back the seats at the table, because we really are there."

She said that IBSI and the JCPA are "redeeming the narrative, the conversation, this relationship with regards to who Israel is, and what she is about and what she's done on the African continent. … If you walk the streets of Zambia, Ethiopia, or Uganda, you are walking on streets that the Jews built, that Israel had a hand in doing."

Washington added that critics of Israel should "look at the technology in our health system or at organizations such as the African National Congress, whose military wing was inspired by Israel," to understand the contribution the Jewish state has made to the continent.

She accused BLM of hijacking the narrative about Israel, saying "that is what we should be reclaiming once again."

As part of its effort to reclaim that narrative and show black Americans how beneficial Israel is (and how it is nothing like the image BLM tries to portray), IBSI plans to begin vetting applicants to its PEACE program. It will choose 20 black American and African men and women who will start their nine-month journey with a 16-module study course that begins in September. As part of the program, they will travel to South Africa and Zimbabwe in December, and then to Israel in June 2023.

'Peace initiative plan for education, advocacy and engagement'

According to Diker, there is a cardinal need for this program. After the death of George Floyd in May 2020, "despite universal Jewish support for BLM, it failed to prevent a surge of antisemitic violence across the United States … BDS organizations have exploited simmering racial tensions by accusing Israel of complicity in Floyd's murder. The BDS strategy is not new. The Jewish state has, for some years, been recast as an illegitimate 'white oppressor.'"

Diker added that BLM co-founder Patrisse Cullors is on record saying that she and her fellow organizers "are trained Marxists." He also noted that BLM is the American version of the red-green alliance, the merging of radical leftists and radical Islamists.

A woman holds a "Black Lives Matter" flag during the March on Washington in August 2020 (AP/Alex Brandon) AP/Alex Brandon

In his remarks, Pastor Washington told the conference that BLM actually began being used as an anti-Israel organization from the very beginning in 2014.

"One of the reasons why it's so crucial, where the issue of antisemitism is concerned, as well as where the issue of the exploitation of the black community is concerned, is because one of the most logical questions one would have to ask is: What does Israel have to do with Michael Brown [an 18-year-old fatally shot by police in Ferguson, Mo., in 2014]?

"What does Israel have to do with George Floyd [a 46-year-old strangled by a police officer in Minneapolis]? What does Israel have to do with Breonna Taylor [a 26-year-old medical worker shot and killed by police during a raid in her Louisville, Ky., apartment in March 2020]? The answer to the question is nothing unless you are seeking to use those situations for your own purposes."

He explained that we need to understand the origins of the strategy to demonize Israel and Jews by using the black community as a weapon.

That strategy, he said, "comes from Yasser Arafat and the PLO back in the 1960s, when they were formed by the KGB for the purposes of disinformation."

He noted that ironically, the first thing Arafat did after the assassination of King was to reach out to freedom fighters and civil-rights leaders in the black community, particularly the younger ones who were frustrated with King.

PLO leader Yasser Arafat in 1994 (Moshe Shai/Archives) Moshe Shai

"They were attempting to convince these young black leaders that the real problem that they were facing wasn't just a racist government, it was 'Zionist.' It was 'the Jews.' All of that was disinformation," said the pastor. "But it was being fed to young people who did not know the difference, who did not know what was going on, who were not aware of the Arab-Israeli conflict. And what was the purpose? The purpose was not to convince the black community, but to use these black leaders to show the world that Israel was indeed a racist regime.

"That's how you got to the whole apartheid thing," he continued. "They couldn't care less about the black athletes, South Africans. What they wanted to do was use black South Africans in a way to demonize Israel. And that has been going on for the past 50-plus years."

Pastor Washington emphasized that "the vast majority of black Americans are not antisemitic, are not anti-Israel. They're actually for Israel. But this doesn't get talked about. The louder mouthpieces often are like Louis Farrakhan, who is talking about white people, Jews and Israel, and somehow, they are portrayed as the mouthpiece for the entire black community. It is not true."

He said while Israel's enemies are "highly invested in tainting that relationship and using the black community to try and communicate a false message about Israel," IBSI is "humbly attempting to take up that mantle of legacy that started long before we got here and will continue long after we are here. And that means that there's a vested interest that we have in continuing that synergy and also underscoring the black-Jewish relationship with the Israel-Africa Alliance. And this is how we started the peace initiative plan for education, advocacy and community engagement."

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The clergyman added that "even though the African National Congress is decidedly against the State of Israel, they do not speak for the vast majority of black South Africans who continue to enjoy relationships with the Jewish people in South Africa and continue to have a relationship with Israel."

Speaking about the program, he said the 20 chosen participants "will see both black-Jewish synergy; they will understand South Africa's relationship with Israel – the real one, not the fake one that's talked about in the media."

"They will eventually return home and be the hub of black-Jewish synergy in their cities," he said. "Our goal is within the next four years to have some 300 IBSI ambassadors in some 48 cities across the United States. This is what we are working with, along with the JCPA."

Pastor Washington slammed the BDS movement, pushing against why it uses black people as props against Israel: "Why are they attempting to exploit the black community to destroy Israel?"

"We are here to set the record straight," he said. "That's why we are happy to work with the JCPA, and we are excited to get this started."

Reprinted with permission from JNS.org.

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The many messages of Biden's Mideast trip https://www.israelhayom.com/2022/07/13/the-many-messages-of-bidens-mideast-trip/ https://www.israelhayom.com/2022/07/13/the-many-messages-of-bidens-mideast-trip/#respond Wed, 13 Jul 2022 12:30:00 +0000 https://www.israelhayom.com/?p=824783   US President Joe Biden is set to arrive in Israel on Wednesday for his first visit to the Jewish state as president, and there are a number of factors at play, experts said. Follow Israel Hayom on Facebook, Twitter, and Instagram Israeli Prime Minister Yair Lapid said during the weekly Cabinet meeting on Sunday […]

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US President Joe Biden is set to arrive in Israel on Wednesday for his first visit to the Jewish state as president, and there are a number of factors at play, experts said.

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Israeli Prime Minister Yair Lapid said during the weekly Cabinet meeting on Sunday that this would be a "historic" week for the Jewish state. Biden's visit, he said, "will deal with both challenges and opportunities." He emphasized, however, that the discussions would focus on Iran and the progress of its nuclear program.

Professor Eytan Gilboa, an expert on US-Israel relations at Bar-Ilan University in Ramat Gan, and a senior fellow at the Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security, said that the fact of the visit itself sends several messages.

"When an American president travels to a foreign country, the trip itself is the message and it represents a commitment," he said.

According to Gilboa, Biden plans to form a regional defense alliance at the Jeddah conference. The coalition will include the United States, Israel and a host of Arab countries, including Gulf states, Egypt, Jordan and Iraq. "In this sense, Biden continues Trump's policy of the Abraham Accords," said Gilboa.

"The new alliance is intended to contain Iran and, in the first stage, will be based on an air defense system against Iranian missiles and attack drones and cyber security measures. Biden may succeed in upgrading the relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia," he said.

With this visit, he continued, Biden is telling Iran it has one last chance to reach an agreement with the West on its nuclear program, and that if it doesn't, "the United States will sponsor an alliance between Israel, the Gulf countries, Egypt and Jordan as a mechanism of defense against you."

The visit also sends a message to China, he said.

Biden announced last September that the United States is forming a new Indo-Pacific security alliance with Britain and Australia, called AUKUS, that will allow for greater sharing of defense capabilities, he noted. In addition to AUKUS, the United States also recently formed the "West Asia Quad," an alliance between Israel, India, the UAE and the United States – officially referred to as the I2-U2.

"Both AUKUS and I2-U2 complete the belt of alliances designed primarily to defeat China," said Gilboa. "The idea is to strategically connect the emerging alliance in the Middle East with the other alliances in Asia. And China is part of the Middle East alliance because just a few months ago China signed a 25-year strategic agreement with Iran," he explained.

"This is an attempt by China to create a military foothold in the Middle East," he continued, adding that the strategic alliance in the Middle East is thus "designed to contain not just Iran but also China."

The third message the visit sends is to the American people, said Gilboa.

The Biden administration completely reversed its policy toward Saudi Arabia and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) following the 2018 murder of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi, he noted. Biden even called MBS a "pariah" in connection with the murder. But "a lot has changed" since, said Gilboa. "Because of Russia's war in Ukraine, Biden needs MBS to produce more oil to compensate for the loss of Russian oil and gas, and he prefers that over moral scruples, especially those adhered to by the so-called progressives."

However, in light of his previous stance on Saudi Arabia and MBS, this leaves Biden in somewhat of an awkward position going into the November parliamentary elections, he said, noting that Biden's approval ratings are already very low and the US economy is very bad. The kingdom's normalization overtures to Israel may offer the US president a way out, he said.

'The possibility of a more integrated Middle East'

Professor Joshua Teitelbaum of the Department of Middle Eastern Studies at Bar-Ilan University said that "Biden has realized he needs to climb down from the tree and rejuvenate the relationship with Saudi Arabia, but he needs a way to do this."

Teitelbaum agreed with Gilboa's assessment that Biden is sending a message to the American people that in order to advance Arab-Israeli peace, he will "do what he can," despite any moral qualms.

"This allows him to go to Saudi Arabia and meet with MBS," said Teitelbaum.

In an op-ed published in The Washington Post on Saturday, Biden noted that he is set to become the first US president to fly directly from Israel to Saudi Arabia. This would be "a small symbol of the budding relations and steps toward normalization between Israel and the Arab world, which my administration is working to deepen and expand," he wrote.

In Saudi Arabia, Biden is scheduled to attend the GCC+3 summit (the Gulf Cooperation Council – consisting of Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates – along with Iraq, Egypt and Jordan) in Jeddah.

"In [Jeddah], leaders from across the region will gather, pointing to the possibility of a more stable and integrated Middle East with the United States playing a vital leadership role," he wrote.

Biden's visit will result in a three-way deal that "helps all three parties achieve what they want," said Teitelbaum.

Israel, he said, will see a soft rapprochement with Saudi Arabia, likely in the form of Israeli overflights to Asia countries as well as a toning down of anti-Israel rhetoric. The Saudis will return to the good graces of America and will also gain control of two Red Sea islands – Tiran and Sanafir – which will officially be returned to Saudi Arabia from Egyptian control. And America will receive more Saudi oil while avoiding a major diplomatic crisis.

Teitelbaum also pointed to Sheikh Mohammed al-Issa, the Saudi cleric known as the "Zionist Imam," who visited Auschwitz and who is now preaching relations with Israel, as a clear indication of Saudi Arabia's improved attitude toward Israel.

Israel joining CENTCOM a year ago, he noted, was an early signal of warming relations with Riyadh, as it indicated that the Arabs were not rejecting Israel's presence in the important group.

He also observed that Saudi textbooks "aren't as anti-Semitic as they used to be."

After visiting with Israeli leaders but before heading on to Saudi Arabia, Biden is scheduled to meet with P.A. leader Mahmoud Abbas in Ramallah. According to Gilboa, the meeting with Abbas will be the most insignificant part of Biden's regional tour.

"There is a clear understanding that given the leadership in Ramallah and Israel, there is no place for any comprehensive initiative or peace proposals of the kind we have seen [in the past]," Gilboa said. "There is much agreement to weaken Hamas to prevent rounds of violence and strengthen the Palestinian Authority," he added.

One reason the Palestinian issue has receded into the background, he said, was that the Saudis have grown impatient with the Palestinian leadership.

"The Saudis are no longer letting Palestinian issues get in the way of relations with Israel," he said. "They care, but they are impatient with the leadership. Iran is more of an immediate concern than the Palestinian issue."

Despite this, there is concern in Israel that the US interests at stake during this trip could translate into pressure on Israel to make concessions to the Palestinians.

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Among these concessions is the reopening the consulate for Palestinian affairs in Jerusalem, which Israel objects to strenuously on the grounds that such a move would undermine its sovereignty over its capital. The consulate was closed under the Trump administration. Biden could also demand that Israel freeze construction in Judea and Samaria.

In conclusion, Gilboa said that the US president's visit to the region will likely be "very critical."

"We will see how much the visit produces concrete results, how it is covered, especially in the countries directly involved, and also in Iran," he said.

Reprinted with permission from JNS.org

 

 

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Israel continues to walk diplomatic tightrope between Russia, Ukraine https://www.israelhayom.com/2022/06/26/israel-continues-to-walk-a-diplomatic-tightrope-between-russia-ukraine/ https://www.israelhayom.com/2022/06/26/israel-continues-to-walk-a-diplomatic-tightrope-between-russia-ukraine/#respond Sun, 26 Jun 2022 09:10:13 +0000 https://www.israelhayom.com/?p=819085   Israel continues to struggle to maintain integrity while balancing its delicate diplomatic relationships with both Ukraine and Russia. While Israel's Ambassador to Russia Alex Ben Zvi received a summons on June 16 to explain an alleged Israeli attack on Damascus International Airport damaging its runways, Ukraine has submitted an official request to Israel for […]

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Israel continues to struggle to maintain integrity while balancing its delicate diplomatic relationships with both Ukraine and Russia. While Israel's Ambassador to Russia Alex Ben Zvi received a summons on June 16 to explain an alleged Israeli attack on Damascus International Airport damaging its runways, Ukraine has submitted an official request to Israel for a $500 million loan to help it deal with the catastrophic impact of Russia's war on the country's economy. The loan request was submitted some two weeks ago by Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal, and Israel is currently studying the request.

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Also last week, Israeli Defense Ministry Policy and Political-Military Bureau Deputy Director Ilan Mezushan traveled to Brussels to participate in the Ukraine Defense Contact Group. This comes after some critics have leveled criticism against Israel for not sending Iron Dome batteries to Ukraine to help protect its civilian population against Russian rockets.

According to Irina Tsukerman, a human-rights lawyer, and geopolitical and security analyst,

Israel's justification for not sending the Iron Dome batteries or missiles relied in the past on three pillars.

First, she told JNS, "there was a claim of scarcity – that the Iron Dome batteries are few in number, and Israel needs to keep them for emergencies and for the instances where another country simply cannot survive otherwise."

Second, she said, "Israel claimed that the circumstances in Ukraine are such that Iron Dome simply would not be effective."

Third, "Israel stated that providing Ukraine with weapons, even defensive weapons, would strain Israel's relations with Russia," she said. "Israel relies on coordination with Russia in Syria and cannot take such a risk."

Tsukerman added that there was also "an unstated fourth argument that the US may have pressured Israel not to provide Iron Dome or missiles, just as the US was not providing the Patriot or other missiles at the time, allegedly due to the fear of escalation but more importantly due to the ongoing Iran-deal negotiations" and Russia's role in negotiating on the Biden administration's behalf.

However, Tsukerman said the situation has changed dramatically since the early days of the war, "and these arguments are no longer potent."

The issue of scarcity, she said, "can be overcome by the claim that Ukraine is, in fact, in such an emergency situation where all types of weapons are welcome, necessary and will serve a purpose in preserving lives."

On the second issue, Tsukerman said that "even if Israel still does not believe that Iron Dome would serve much purpose, there are other missiles and weapons it could sell to Ukraine that would be effective."

Regarding Russia, Tsukerman said it "would not have escalated physically against Israel."

She also said she believes Russia "is an enemy of Israel" and explained that "the anti-Semitic conspiracy theory its foreign ministry spouted to dissuade Israel from providing humanitarian and political assistance to Ukraine show where Russia really stood on all issues, and at the end of the day, such a country should never be allowed to dictate Israel terms of engagement with its real allies."

Finally, she said, "the US itself is now supplying Patriot systems and other missiles to Ukraine; as such, whatever the argument it may have held about avoiding escalation previously clearly is moot now. Israel should do the right thing and help Ukraine fight off an aggressor. At the end of the day, that will benefit Israel's interests in weakening Russia's hold over its own security concerns and increasing its international standing and goodwill politically."

'A country involved in an existential struggle'

These issues are not, of course, the only ones Israel faces. With more than 25,000 Jews having made aliyah (immigrated) to Israel from Ukraine, their needs have become a priority. The organization Yad L'Olim has made it its mission to help the Ukrainian immigrants with their short- and long-term challenges.

For instance, the organization has a shop in Jerusalem where the immigrants that arrived in Israel with one bag and the clothing on their backs can receive clothes and other basic necessities for free. The organization hired a team of Ukrainian and Russian speakers to help the immigrants navigate Israeli bureaucracy, including opening bank accounts, getting a driver's license, and finding a home and employment.

Former Knesset member Dov Lipman, Yad L'Olim's founder and CEO, also advocates in the Knesset for policy changes to help the new immigrants.

"It has been so painful to see olim arrive in terrible trauma from the war and with no possessions or pathway to success," he told JNS. "It has been a tremendous honor to advocate for them in the Knesset and to have our team provide them with the tools they need to rebuild their lives in Israel."

Ironically, these immigrants escaped a country at war to enter Israel, another country theoretically always at war.

Jonathan Spyer, a researcher at the Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security, explained to JNS that while it is true that Ukraine "is a country at war, and it is fighting an old-fashioned conventional conflict of the kind which many people thought Europe would never see again – with airborne thrusts, armored columns and artillery bombardments," Israel is also at war but "fighting the other kind – a gray-zone war, a hybrid conflict, but it is no less a war."

"Israel is a country involved in an existential struggle with an alliance committed to its destruction," he added.

Addressing concerns over Israel's balancing act between Ukraine and Russia, Spyer emphasized Jerusalem's need "to keep the Russia deconfliction process between the Kirya [Israel's Pentagon] and the Khmeimim Air Base in Syria's Latakia province on track."

As a result of its concerns over Russia in Syria, Spyer said Israel "has been very careful with regard to its diplomacy vis-à-vis the Russia-Ukraine war."

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"I hope people are aware of the fact that Israel is at war," he said. "It would seem the Israeli position ought to be a fairly comprehensible one. Israel is not a European country; it is not a NATO member; it is not a European Union member. Many in Europe and the West don't fully understand the extent that Israel is locked in a very important regional contest with Iran."

Spyer suggested that due to the unfair criticism it receives, Israel should consider publishing some of its military operations to show the international community that it is indeed fighting a war.

"Maybe it is because of the nature of the conflict, and much of it takes place unseen," he said. "It may be an ambitious case to make, but a necessary one to shift the goalposts of discussion."

Reprinted with permission from JNS.org.

 

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'Labeling of settlement goods is about discrimination, not law' https://www.israelhayom.com/2022/06/14/labeling-of-settlement-goods-is-about-discrimination-not-law/ https://www.israelhayom.com/2022/06/14/labeling-of-settlement-goods-is-about-discrimination-not-law/#respond Tue, 14 Jun 2022 08:25:13 +0000 https://www.israelhayom.com/?p=813963   Norway's recent decision to label food products from Israeli communities in Judea and Samaria is not about upholding international law, but about discriminating against the Jewish state, law expert professor Eugene Kontorovich said. Follow Israel Hayom on Facebook, Twitter, and Instagram Kontorovich, director of international law at the Jerusalem-based Kohelet Policy Forum, said that […]

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Norway's recent decision to label food products from Israeli communities in Judea and Samaria is not about upholding international law, but about discriminating against the Jewish state, law expert professor Eugene Kontorovich said.

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Kontorovich, director of international law at the Jerusalem-based Kohelet Policy Forum, said that Israel needs to respond more robustly to such moves.

"Actions like this take place in part because European countries have come to expect a mild reaction on Israel's part – a strong statement and then business as usual," he said. "When it comes to discriminatory trade measures, countries can expect to get picked on if they don't retaliate."

Norway has defended its decision, stating that it is in line with a 2019 ruling by the Court of Justice of the European Union, but Kontorovich is unconvinced.

In addition to the fact that Norway is not a member of the European bloc and the court's decision was not a binding one, he said, the Scandinavian country was acting hypocritically.

Norway is "passionate about the cause of [the disputed] Western Sahara, but still labels products from that territory as 'Made in Morocco,'" he noted.

Kontorovich is not the only expert who believes Norway's decision had more to do with discrimination than with the rule of law.

According to The Hague Initiative for International Cooperation (thinc.), there is a fair level of bias and hypocrisy when it comes to the labeling of products made by Israelis living beyond the 1949 armistice lines.

Thinc. director Andrew Tucker has highlighted an example in the Netherlands, where the Israel Products Centre (IPC) imports and sells many goods, including wines produced in what most of the international community calls the West Bank. In April 2019, the Dutch Food and Consumer Product Safety Authority (NVWA) inspected IPC's shop in Nijkerk, responding to complaints that the center was selling these wines with a "Made in Israel" label.

The NVWA is responsible for implementing Dutch consumer protection legislation, including EU Regulation 1169/2011. This regulation requires European importers of food products to ensure that consumers can make "informed choices" and are not "deceived" or "misled." This includes specifying the origin or place of provenance of a product.

Tucker noted in a report that the IPC, "seeking to comply with the law, amended its labels on wines produced outside the Green Line. The labels now state: 'product uit een Israëlisch dorp in Judea & Samaria' (product from an Israeli village in Judea and Samaria)."

Nevertheless, Dutch BDS activists launched a campaign urging the NVWA to reopen its investigation into the IPC's labeling practices. NVWA inspectors again visited the IPC, subsequently announcing that even the new labels were misleading and in breach of EU legislation.

According to Tucker, EU lawmakers are effectively demanding that "all Europeans should comply with the worldview of bureaucrats in Brussels – a world-view in which the Palestinians should be able to set up their judenrein [Jew-free] state, and Jews have no historical or religious connection with the Old City of Jerusalem or the mountains of Judea and Samaria."

In 2015, the European Commission published an "Interpretative Notice" (2015/C 375/05) stating that, "Since the Golan Heights and the West Bank (including East Jerusalem) are not part of the Israeli territory according to international law, the indication 'product from Israel' is considered to be incorrect and misleading in the sense of the referenced legislation."

By contrast, the Commission declared that, "For products from Palestine that do not originate from settlements, an indication which does not mislead about the geographical origin, while corresponding to international practice, could be 'product from the West Bank (Palestinian product)', 'product from Gaza' or 'product from Palestine.'"

This, Tucker argues, demonstrates the Commission's bias; it has already predetermined that Judea and Samaria belong to the Palestinians and that even though no Palestinian state exists, goods produced by Palestinians in those territories can be labeled as originating from "Palestine."

Arsen Ostrovsky, CEO of The International Legal Forum, told JNS that Norway's decision was an indication of a "profound" hostility toward the Jewish state.

"The move by Norway to apply separate labeling to Israeli goods produced in Judea and Samaria, eastern Jerusalem and the Golan Heights represents a shameful acquiescence to the global BDS movement," he said.

"That Norway is not even a member of the European Union, yet voluntarily chose to apply the EU guidelines – which even most EU member states do not to observe – indicates a profound level of hostility and disdain towards Israel that will do nothing to advance peace but, rather, only embolden extremists and contribute to rising anti-Semitism," Ostrovsky added.

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"Perhaps instead of engaging in quasi-boycotts, labeling and virtue-signaling against Israel, Norway would be better served to cease its funding to PLPF-affiliated terror groups, if it truly wants to make a positive contribution to peace," said Ostrovsky.

Norway's decision to label Judea and Samaria goods follows a similar move by Belgium last year. In response to that decision, Israeli Deputy Foreign Minister Idan Roll, who was in Belgium at the time, canceled meetings at the parliament and Foreign Ministry in Brussels.

Reprinted with permission from JNS.org.

 

 

 

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Australia's new PM not expected to reverse policy on Israel https://www.israelhayom.com/2022/06/07/australias-new-pm-not-expected-to-reverse-policy-on-israel/ https://www.israelhayom.com/2022/06/07/australias-new-pm-not-expected-to-reverse-policy-on-israel/#respond Tue, 07 Jun 2022 09:15:06 +0000 https://www.israelhayom.com/?p=811697   When Australia's new prime minister, Anthony Albanese, won his country's federal election last month, there was speculation in various media outlets in Australia and abroad over whether he would alter policy with regard to Israel and the Palestinians. Follow Israel Hayom on Facebook, Twitter, and Instagram As leader of the Australian Labor Party, which […]

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When Australia's new prime minister, Anthony Albanese, won his country's federal election last month, there was speculation in various media outlets in Australia and abroad over whether he would alter policy with regard to Israel and the Palestinians.

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As leader of the Australian Labor Party, which promised to recognize a Palestinian state should it win the election, Albanese has been painted as being more sympathetic to the Palestinian cause than his predecessor Scott Morrison, who was vocal in his support for Israel and who backed word with deed, for example by recognizing western Jerusalem as Israel's capital.

With the center-left Labor government now in charge, ending almost a decade of rule by the conservative Liberal Party and National Party coalition, some fear Israel will be unfairly vilified for defending itself against Palestinian terrorism. Albanese has been accused of making comments that appear to justify those fears. For instance, a 2014 Guardian report stated that Albanese slammed Israel over the "collective punishment" being endured by the people of Gaza, calling it "completely unacceptable."

However, Albanese's supporters point to his actions, which they argue suggest he will be no less protective of Israel than Morrison. For instance, last year, Albanese slammed a motion calling for a boycott of Israel over its treatment of Palestinians, saying it would be counterproductive. Albanese also pledged his "ongoing opposition" to the Boycott, Divestment and Sanctions (BDS) movement.

Alex Ryvchin, co-CEO of the Executive Council of Australian Jewry (ECAJ), said that while Albanese "has at times criticized Israeli policy and its military operations against Hamas, he has also shown himself to be an ally at critical times."

Ryvchin noted that in 2011, Albanese "joined with the Jewish community in its successful fight against BDS in the inner-Sydney suburb of Marrickville."

"His engagement with the community has always been candid, friendly and consultative," said Ryvchin. Last year, Albanese "denounced BDS for its 'racial undertones,' he categorically dismissed the apartheid slur and he pledged to endorse the IHRA [International Holocaust Remembrance Alliance] definition of anti-Semitism."

To reverse long-standing policy which holds Israel to be an important ally of Australia would be a "peculiar departure," he added.

"While some within the government and the wider party will be agitating for a shift in voting patterns at the United Nations or for morally and legally untenable policies like the unilateral recognition of a Palestinian state, any such moves would side-track the government from its policy priorities and would undermine the government's credibility," said Ryvchin.

Arsen Ostrovsky, an Israeli-Australian commentator on Middle East foreign affairs, said that some degree of cooling in the Australia-Israel relationship was likely to be expected because Morrison's support for the Jewish state had been uncommonly strong.

"There is a quintessential Australian word, 'mateship,' which connotes a deep friendship, rooted in loyalty, respect and solidarity. Israel truly could not have asked for a better 'mate' or ally than the previous Morrison-led government, which really set the gold standard in support of the Jewish state, both in word and deed. This was evident no more so than at the United Nations and in respect of Israel's right to self-defense against Palestinian terror groups," he said.

"Although Israel has been fortunate to have enjoyed relatively strong bipartisan support in Australia over many years," added Ostrovsky, there could be "a gradual cooling down in the unwavering degree of support we have become accustomed to."

Emphasizing that the Australian Labor Party "is certainly not Jeremy Corbyn's Labor Party," and "while there is solid support for Israel at the top level," there will "likely be considerable pressure to water this down in the rank and file," said Ostrovsky.

One of the first tests for the new Albanese-led government, he said, "will be the upcoming Navi Pillay-led U.N. Commission of Inquiry, which is set to shortly release a damning report against Israel. Prime Minister Morrison's government was unequivocal in standing by Israel in the face of the systematic bias and unfair singling out of Israel at the United Nations. I would hope that Prime Minister Albanese continues this policy."

Jeremy Jones, director of international and community affairs at Australia/Israel & Jewish Affairs Council, said that for decades, bipartisan support within Australia for good relations with Israel "has been very strong." Even so, he said the previous government "was widely regarded as being among Israel's strongest diplomatic allies."

He noted that concern exists over a number of members of parliament now in government "who have voiced varying levels of hostility to Israel," but at the same time that "there is a strong and active Parliamentary Friends of Israel group and supporters of Israel in senior government positions."

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He added that a number of strong Israel supporters in the previous government failed to get re-elected, and that "within the pro-Israel community there is concern at the increase in parliamentary representation by The Greens, including some with records of extreme anti-Israel positions, but it is unclear what influence, if any, they will have over foreign policy."

Ryvchin was hopeful. According to him, "the Jewish community in Australia is diverse, but there is near consensus around support for Israel and opposition to hostile government policy and pronouncements."

"We look forward to a warm and constructive relationship with Prime Minister Albanese and his government," he said.

Reprinted with permission from JNS.org.

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Biden visit to Israel aims to please, but may alienate all parties instead https://www.israelhayom.com/2022/05/26/biden-visit-to-israel-aims-to-please-but-may-alienate-all-parties-instead/ https://www.israelhayom.com/2022/05/26/biden-visit-to-israel-aims-to-please-but-may-alienate-all-parties-instead/#respond Thu, 26 May 2022 05:44:59 +0000 https://www.israelhayom.com/?p=807783   Ahead of US President Joe Biden's as-yet-unconfirmed visit to Israel next month, a number of reports have surfaced regarding what the president aims to achieve during his trip to the region. One report claimed that Biden's advisers, Brett McGurk and Amos Hochstein, discreetly visited Saudi Arabia to discuss increasing oil production; a deal concerning […]

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Ahead of US President Joe Biden's as-yet-unconfirmed visit to Israel next month, a number of reports have surfaced regarding what the president aims to achieve during his trip to the region. One report claimed that Biden's advisers, Brett McGurk and Amos Hochstein, discreetly visited Saudi Arabia to discuss increasing oil production; a deal concerning the two Red Sea islands, Tiran and Sanafir; and possible normalization with Israel.

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At the same time, concerns abound in Israel over the concessions Biden and his foreign-policy team might be eager to make to the Palestinians to curry favor, especially after the previous administration shunned Palestinian Authority leader Mahmoud Abbas over his rejectionism. Biden's team wants to demonstrate a reversal in American policy, and it is possible they will go to great lengths to do so, even to Israel's detriment.

Professor Eytan Gilboa, an expert on US-Israel relations at Bar-Ilan University and a senior fellow at the Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security, points to a number of reasons Biden is coming.

Prime Minister Naftali Bennett and US President Joe Biden at the White House in Washington, Aug. 27, 2021 (Reuters/Jonathan Ernst/File) Reuters/Jonathan Ernst

First, the American midterm elections are coming up, and the Democrats need to shore up support on the domestic front as historically, the party in power loses seats in the Senate and House of Representatives. According to reports, Biden's popularity is currently at 36 percent, a low in his year-and-a-half tenure. This trip could be a way to boost that number and help Democrats at least keep seats in both branches.

Second, Biden wants to demonstrate that he has learned the lessons of the past. The Obama administration had a different approach, and former President Barack Obama's first two visits to the Middle East—to Egypt and Turkey in 2009—bypassed the Jewish states. His intent was to distance Israel in favor of reconciliation with the Muslim world. This proved to be a mistake, and Biden is now attempting to correct that.

Third, aside from American domestic political concerns, Israeli domestic politics play a role as well.

Gilboa explains that Biden believes the visit could improve the standing of Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett and his government in the eyes of Israeli voters, adding that the president "is interested in keeping this government alive" because of the history of his relations with former prime minister and current head of the opposition Benjamin Netanyahu.

Then there is the regional aspect.

In recent years, America's policy was to disengage from the Middle East. This visit is also intended as a message that the United States is not leaving the area and is supporting its allies.

The visit is also a signal to Iran, with the message being: "If you don't want a new nuclear deal, then perhaps we need to change our policies in the region."

The major issue the leaders will discuss is, of course, Iran. The recent exposure of Iran's systematic policy of fraud and theft against the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), as well as the concealment of evidence from the organization, demonstrates that it cannot be trusted. Bennett called on the international community on Wednesday to take action in light of this evidence.

Biden promised that Iran will not become a nuclear power under his watch. As Gilboa noted, Israel "will want to know how he is going to accomplish that."

Then-US Vice President Joe Biden, left, and Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas meet at the presidential compound in Ramallah, March 9, 2016 (AP/Debbie Hill/Pool/File) AP/Debbie Hill/Pool

The leaders will also discuss the Palestinian issue.

According to Gilboa, the Biden administration wants to cancel former President Donald Trump's legacy in Israel.

"They insist on an American consulate for Palestinians in Jerusalem," said Gilboa, "but the United States does not have, anywhere in the world, an embassy and a consulate in the same place. So opening the consulate is meant to be a political statement."

Israel told the Americans if they want, they can open one in Ramallah or Abu Dis, but those ideas were rejected. The reason they have not opened the consulate in Jerusalem yet is the understanding that if they do it, the Israeli government will disintegrate.

"But Biden wants to compensate Abbas for it," said Gilboa. "This will be accomplished with the visit. His idea is to strengthen Abbas. The US understands that Hamas is getting stronger, and Abbas has no popularity—that Jenin is out of his control."

Biden's team has also expressed interest in the president making a trip to meet Abbas in Ramallah and possibly pay a visit to an Arab neighborhood in eastern Jerusalem. This could earn him extra points on the Palestinian front.

The Americans, observed Gilboa, "want to please everybody, but they alienate everybody. Bennett is saying, 'If you push me too hard, you will get Netanyahu.' Abbas is saying, 'If you push me too hard, you will get Hamas.'

"It is full of contradictions," he said. "If they make concessions to the Palestinians, they will end up toppling the Israeli government."

Aside from issues such as Russia, Ukraine and China, the other major issue the leaders will discuss is Saudi Arabia.

According to Gilboa, Riyadh may respond by joining the Abraham Accords.

"Saudi Arabia joining the Abraham Accords would be a major and drastic move," he said.

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Jonathan Schanzer, senior vice president at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, said that "there is more to the president's agenda than the Palestinians."

"The Red Sea islands agreement now gives the Biden foreign-policy team an opportunity to press for normalization between Israel and Saudi Arabia," he said. "Stability in Jordan remains a huge concern. Aligning with Israel on great power competition with Russia and China also looms large. And then there is the enormous question of the Iran deal, and if it fails, the question of 'Plan B' to prevent a nuclear crisis."

"All of these issues are more pressing than the Palestinian file," said Schanzer. "Still, the Biden team will make sure to signal support for the Palestinian cause. But we should not mistake that for prioritization."

Reprinted with permission from JNS.org.

 

 

 

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Collapse of EastMed pipeline project has an upside https://www.israelhayom.com/2022/04/17/collapse-of-eastmed-pipeline-project-has-an-upside/ https://www.israelhayom.com/2022/04/17/collapse-of-eastmed-pipeline-project-has-an-upside/#respond Sun, 17 Apr 2022 09:00:06 +0000 https://www.israelhayom.com/?p=791735   An Israeli plan to build and develop a pipeline in the Eastern Mediterranean that would bring natural gas from the offshore fields of Israel and Cyprus across Greece to Italy and Bulgaria appears to be faltering. With a number of logistical and funding issues, as well as the loss of support from the United […]

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An Israeli plan to build and develop a pipeline in the Eastern Mediterranean that would bring natural gas from the offshore fields of Israel and Cyprus across Greece to Italy and Bulgaria appears to be faltering. With a number of logistical and funding issues, as well as the loss of support from the United States, the EastMed Pipeline, as it has come to be known, seems nothing more than a pipe dream. Still, it's not a total loss, and some positive aspects have materialized thanks to the project.

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Earlier this month, officials from Israel, Greece and Cyprus met in Athens to deepen their energy cooperation on natural-gas pipeline projects, especially in light of the ongoing war in Ukraine. The European Union has expressed interest in decreasing its reliance on Russian gas due to the war.

Foreign Minister of Cyprus Ioannis Kasoulides said, "We are proceeding with projects such as the EuroAsia Interconnector and the EastMed pipeline … and we are confident that when materialized, they will have another practical and geostrategic value for the Eastern Mediterranean and the European Union."

Cyprus, Greece and Israel also agreed to build the world's longest and deepest underwater cable to link their electricity grids in the EuroAsia Interconnector project, which is expected to be finished in 2024.

But Simon Henderson, director of the Bernstein Program on Gulf and Energy Policy at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy (WINEP), told Jewish News Syndicate that a number of problems exist concerning the pipeline, some of which include the fact that it would be "too long, too deep," there is "not enough gas," and there are "sovereignty issues" involving some countries with competing claims to the same areas through which the pipeline would run.

Turkey is not part of the EastMed project, but since it declared an exclusive economic zone (EEZ) that overlaps the pipeline route and has an existing EEZ dispute with Greece, there are "too many headaches," according to Henderson.

He also said he wasn't sure the United States had ever actually supported the pipeline, though "it did want to encourage cooperation between Israel, Greece and Cyprus."

The EastMed Pipeline is a proposed 1,300-mile pipeline – 1,000 miles of which would be undersea – from the Levantine Basin to Europe, making landfall in Cyprus, Greece and Italy. While the Trump administration supported the project, the Biden administration has not, freezing the effort after the US State Department sent a non-paper to Greece in January in which it expressed reservations about the pipeline's environmental impact and economic feasibility.

According to Greek media outlets, the non-paper described the project as a "primary source of tension" and something that was "destabilizing" the region by putting Turkey and regional countries at loggerheads.

Although the United States was not providing the funding – estimated at close to $7 billion –its political support was considered essential to go forward.

'A very challenging engineering project'

Elai Rettig, assistant professor at the department of political studies at Bar-Ilan University in Ramat Gan who specializes in energy geopolitics, told JNS the pipeline "lacked economic viability at the time that the US made the announcement."

He explained that EastMed was designed to be the longest and deepest underwater pipeline in the world for a relatively small amount of gas.

Rettig said in some areas, the water pressure would force the pipeline to be rather small in diameter, and in other areas, for example near the island of Crete, the bottom of the sea is volcanic – meaning the ground moves. "It makes for a very challenging engineering project," he said. "It would have cost a lot and would require European customers to pay a high price to cover the costs of the pipeline."

Now, he said, "Prices of gas in Europe are soaring, so you can justify the pipeline. But when you build a pipeline, you need to assess the price five years from now when the pipeline would be built and not what the prices are right now. So investors are still on the fence. Before they build a pipeline, they need to secure a binding 10- to 15-year contract with a customer in Europe at a fixed price," but no one is willing to commit.

Rettig noted that when America said it would "withdraw its support" from the pipeline, "this didn't mean much because the US wasn't offering to pay for the pipeline at any point. So it mostly had a psychological aspect of putting the final nail in the coffin and 'releasing' Israel to start negotiating other options, like liquefied natural gas [LNG] or a pipeline to Turkey, without angering Greece and Cyprus."

'Get the ball rolling again'

Moving forward, Rettig said the pipeline is likely to fail. The US announcement, he noted, was a way for Amos Hochstein, the US State Department's senior adviser for global energy security, to "shake things up."

According to Rettig, this could be a "prize" to Turkey "as part of the attempt to warm relations with the US, and maybe appease Turkey and get them to allow Cyprus to develop their gas fields and stop blocking it with warships."

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Rettig clarified that the United States "isn't paying for a pipeline or for an electricity grid. They're just facilitating discussions."

He added that "perhaps there was a feeling that things are just 'stuck' because the EastMed option is not moving, so they might as well 'kill it' in order to spur new types of conversations with Turkey or Lebanon and get the ball rolling again in a fresh way."

Rettig said he wasn't sure how economically viable the interconnector line is, "but it's good to talk about it. It keeps the Israel-Cyprus relations warm and the dialogue ongoing."

Henderson agreed, writing in a January analysis for WINEP that "although Israel, Greece and Cyprus are no doubt disappointed about the withdrawal of US and EU support, the project has served the valuable purpose of bringing them together diplomatically."

Reprinted with permission from JNS.org.

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Ukraine's battle for survival offers multiple lessons for Israel https://www.israelhayom.com/2022/03/17/ukraines-battle-for-survival-offers-multiple-lessons-for-israel/ https://www.israelhayom.com/2022/03/17/ukraines-battle-for-survival-offers-multiple-lessons-for-israel/#respond Thu, 17 Mar 2022 10:32:27 +0000 https://www.israelhayom.com/?p=777607   As Russia pushes further into Ukraine and threatens its capital Kyiv – and as Russian President Vladimir Putin appears unfazed and undeterred by Western nations willing to sanction Russia through economic means, but afraid to fight militarily to save innocent Ukrainian civilians – the question arises: What could the world have done to deter […]

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As Russia pushes further into Ukraine and threatens its capital Kyiv – and as Russian President Vladimir Putin appears unfazed and undeterred by Western nations willing to sanction Russia through economic means, but afraid to fight militarily to save innocent Ukrainian civilians – the question arises: What could the world have done to deter Putin? And what does this mean for the State of Israel?

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John Hardie, a research analyst at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, told JNS that the biggest reason Putin has not been deterred "is that he reached a point where he was simply determined to settle the Ukraine issue once and for all."

"For Putin, securing Ukraine within Russia's sphere of influence is a long-standing key objective, and he likely worried that Ukraine was slipping away," said Hardie. "He appears to have grown more fixated on this issue in recent years – perhaps reflecting concern about his legacy and less exposure to/tolerance for dissenting opinions or even objective assessments from advisers."

He also suggested that Putin may have believed "now would be an opportune time to act," as he likely assumed that America's attention was diverted as it focused on China and other issues, and as Germany is dealing with a leadership transition and France heads into an election.

Hardie also said the energy crisis played a part in Putin's thinking; he may have believed that the costs of invading Ukraine at a later date would be higher, particularly "because Ukrainian missiles and other military capabilities were improving."

"He almost certainly underestimated the Ukrainian military's will and ability to resist, the Ukrainian people's receptivity to Russian forces and the severity of retaliatory Western sanctions," said Hardie.

In terms of what the West could have done differently, Hardie said he wishes that the United States "could have agreed on these harsher sanctions (especially the central bank sanctions) before Putin invaded and communicated that to Moscow," adding that while he commends the Western allies for ramping up military aid to Ukraine, "it obviously would have been better if Ukraine had that stuff before the war began. And the US certainly shouldn't have delayed approval of military aid or canceled military training in Ukraine, as the Biden administration reportedly did."

"I'm not sure doing those things differently would've deterred Putin," he continued, "but we would've stood a better chance. The central bank sanctions would've been a particularly important deterrence threat because they basically paralyze Moscow's ability to use its massive war chest of foreign reserves, which Putin likely expected could help Russia muddle through while under sanctions.

'He thought he would get away with murder again'

In one worrying development – for Ukrainians, at least – Putin announced that he would allow Syrian fighters to join Russia's ranks.

According to Jonathan Spyer, a researcher at the Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS), this step may indicate that Putin feels he is "short of reliable manpower or of deep support for the war at home, and therefore wants to make use of non-citizens as cannon fodder for when his forces enter the big cities of eastern Ukraine."

Spyer said that for Israel, this "underlines the extent to which Russia is a strategic rival to Israel, aligned with Israel's regional foes."

Emmanuel Navon, also an analyst with the JISS, told JNS that Putin "is influenced by Alexander Dugin, a nationalist Russian philosopher who calls for the annexation of Belarus and Ukraine to Russia."

Navon said Putin "has managed to turn Belarus into a vassal state by backing [President Alexander] Lukashenko, who has stolen an election and terrorized Belarussians into submission. Putin had similar plans for Ukraine, but Ukrainian President [Volodymyr] Zelensky is no Lukashenko. So Putin decided to invade Ukraine and submit it into political submission, as Soviet leaders did in the Baltic states in 1939, in Poland in 1945, in Hungary in 1956 and in Czechoslovakia in 1968."

According to Navon, "since Putin mostly got away with murder in 2014 [when he annexed Crimea], he thought he would get away with murder again. Thankfully, he has been grossly mistaken. His military plans have been stalled by the courageous Ukrainian resistance; his economy is collapsing under the weight of Western sanctions; and his propaganda machine has been defeated by social media. It is unclear whether he'll back down, try to sustain a long war of attrition or take the risk of a military confrontation with NATO."

PM Naftali Bennett and Russian President Vladimir Putin in Sochi, Oct. 22, 2021 (AP via Sputnik/Evgeny Biyatov/Pool/File) AP via Sputnik/Evgeny Biyatov/Pool

While Western nations have so far refused to become directly involved militarily and have opted instead to assist Ukraine from the sidelines, Navon said Europe and the United States "are taking a tough stance."

"The West could technically go a step further by imposing a no-fly zone in Ukraine, but such a move would make war between the United States and Russia almost inevitable," he said. "In such a scenario, Putin might decide to use nuclear weapons."

"In Syria," he explained, "there was a civil war among many factions, and the West could not support anti-Assad rebels without aiding the Islamists [referring to Syrian President Bashar Assad]. Here, there is a country arbitrarily invading another one to impose a regime of its liking. If the West lets this happen, the order it established after World War Two will collapse. It will be an order – or, rather, a disorder – in which might is right. It was precisely to prevent such a nightmarish world that Britain and France went to war against Nazi Germany in 1939."

Navon said Israel is learning that it "can no longer sit on the fence as the world is increasingly being divided between democracies and autocracies."

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"As China and Russia want to undo the US-led order, just as Germany and Japan tried to challenge the "Anglo-Saxon order" in the 1930s and '40s," Navon said Israel is "understandably wary not to undermine its economic ties with China and its security coordination with Russia [over Syria], but we have reached the tipping point where Israel must make a choice and take a stance."

Navon noted that Israel faced "a similar situation in 1950 when North Korea invaded South Korea with the support of the Soviet Union."

Israel's then-foreign minister, Moshe Sharrett, "wanted Israel to remain non-aligned in the Cold War since both the Soviet Union and the United States had supported Israel's independence in 1948," explained Navon. "But Prime Minister [David] Ben-Gurion decided to fully back South Korea and the US-led UN coalition at the risk of alienating the Soviet Union. He did so because he understood that a world ruled by brute force and anti-Western autocrats went against Israel's values and interests alike."

Israel Kasnett is deputy Jerusalem bureau chief at JNS.

Reprinted with permission from JNS.org.

 

 

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