At the Annual Economist Government Roundtable in Greece on July 5, 2022, Israeli Defense Minister Benny Gantz disclosed, "Iran is methodically basing itself in the Red Sea, with warships patrolling the southern region." He added, "The presence of Iran's military forces in the Red Sea in recent months is the most significant in a decade. It directly threatens trade, energy and the global economy."

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A short time earlier, a website that opposes the Iran-supported Houthi rebels in Yemen reported that, on June 28, 2022, Somali security forces in Bandar Beyla on the Arabian Sea captured two weapons-laden boats that the Houthis, with help from Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), were trying to deliver to the Somali terror organization Harakat al-Shabaab al-Mujahideen, Al-Qaeda's affiliate in East Africa, more commonly known as "al-Shabaab."

The report said that the boats, which had Somali and Yemeni crews, belonged to Ahmad Matan, a Somali smuggler behind an October 2017 truck bombing that killed more than 500 people. The smuggling is reportedly conducted from Somalia to Yemen and vice versa.

In November 2021, the organization Global Initiative against Transnational Organized Crime reported that weapons deliveries from Iran to the Houthis had found their way to Somalia. Some navigation systems on arms-smuggling ships intercepted by the US Navy showed exit points from the port of Jask in Iran – where the IRGC navy (IRGCN) and the Iranian navy (IRIN) operate – and the port of Mukalla in Yemen, which is used for Yemeni and Somali smuggling.

In May 2021, the US warship USS Monterey confiscated a massive weapons shipment whose source was apparently Iran. On July 7, 2022, the UK revealed that on January 28 and February 25, 2022, Royal Navy ship HMS Montrose's Royal Marines seized Iranian weapons from speedboats being operated by smugglers in international waters south of Iran.

In recent years, the IRGCN, which has conducted most of Iran's naval activity in the Persian Gulf region, has spread to the Arabian Sea, the Red Sea and the Mediterranean. In the Arabian Sea and Red Sea region, this presence is mainly clandestine. Civilian vessels are used to collect intelligence and deliver arms to the Houthis. In some of its operational activities, the IRGCN – granted priority for equipment, manpower and training – was aided by the IRIN.

The Iranian presence in the Arabian Sea and the Red Sea hides behind slogans of the international war on piracy. However, it is also used for Iranian operational activity and arms smuggling to the Houthis in Yemen, Somalia and Palestinian terror organizations in Gaza and Lebanon. As part of Iran's aggressive drone strategy, converted ships used by the IRGC navy and the Iranian navy serve as launch platforms for drones, fast-boats and explosive-laden naval suicide boats (GPS-guided and unmanned) that can strike targets in the Mediterranean, including Israeli gas rigs.

These Iranian naval capabilities are well-suited to Iran's asymmetric-warfare doctrine. Some are now in use against Saudi strategic infrastructure, including attacks on oil facilities at sea and on land, on Saudi ships operating off the Saudi coast and for Iranian retaliatory attacks against foreign assets in the region.

Moreover, Iran is smuggling arms to the Horn of Africa to step up its involvement in the region, particularly in Somalia, which is not only a destination for arms smuggling but also a transit station for moving arms up the Red Sea towards the Mediterranean.

Iran's naval activity in the region has been hit by hard times, including mysterious attacks on Iranian ships and the confiscation of weapons on ships and boats originating in Iran. Yet Iran will continue its seaborne activity in the region, upgrade its drone-launching capabilities from maritime platforms and deliver arms to its allies in the area, Palestinian terror organizations and Hezbollah.

With ongoing air strikes against its proxies in Gaza, Yemen, Lebanon, Syria and Iraq, Iran attaches great importance to surface-to-air weapons. Accordingly, it will continue to upgrade its proxies' capabilities in this regard with 358 SAMs and MANPADS and other air defense capabilities through smuggling via air, land and sea.

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An increased Iranian naval presence – including IRGC forces tasked with logistical assistance and terror – intensifies the threat to international commercial and shipping lanes. It augments Iran's ability to attack ships, such as the strike on the MT Mercer Street cargo ship off the coast of Oman in July 2021. The US Central Command stated that the drone that hit the ship and killed two crew members was manufactured in Iran.

The improvement in Iran's naval warfare, aerial and sea drones, fast-boats and missile capabilities from maritime platforms all give Iran the ability to operate against targets at sea in asymmetric warfare and to develop a possible response against Israel in retaliation to ongoing attacks on Iranian security assets and nuclear targets.

Featured on JNS.org, this article was originally published by the Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs.

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A series of articles published recently in the Turkish, British, and American media indicate that Iranian intelligence is making effective use of major international crime organizations and drug cartels in several countries to advance its goals, notably capturing dissidents in the diaspora. These organizations have affiliates in other countries, for example, Romania, a country where a senior Iranian judge was recently assassinated during a mysterious trip.

British and American news outlets reported that Turkish police recently arrested at least 13 members of an international crime organization on charges of collaborating with Iran's intelligence services.

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One such organization has become the long arm of Iranian intelligence. It is run by Naji Sharifi Zindashti, born in Oroumieh, Iran, and the son of a Peshmerga fighter. Zindashti was detained in Evin prison after a conviction for drug trafficking at the age of 20. He escaped from prison and lived in Turkey for many years. Zindashti had contacts with Turkish politicians in President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's AKP party, but he made sure to donate financially to the organization headed by Fethullah Gülen, the leader of the Turkish opposition in exile who resides in the United States.

Zindashti was reportedly a secret witness in the Ergenekon trial, and detained on charges of attempting to topple the Turkish government. He was mysteriously released from prison in 2010 after his arrest in 2007 in Turkey for possession of 75 kg (175 pounds) of heroin.

Turkey's official news agency, Anadolu, recently confirmed that Iran's intelligence ministry used Zindashti's organization to assassinate and kidnap Iranian dissidents on Turkish soil. Turkey suspects that Zindashti's envoys have acted uninterrupted against Iranian exiles since at least 2015.

A 'honeytrap'? The recent kidnapping by an Iranian 'Swallow'

A video broadcast on Sky News on Dec. 16 portrayed the kidnapping in October of Habib Farajula Kaab, known as Habib Assyud in Turkey, in what the network called a "honeytrap." Assyud was vice president of the Executive Committee of the Arab Struggle Front for the Liberation of Ahvaz (ASMLA), a party working for the rights of Iran's Arab minority. The Turkish Ministry of Justice issued a "Red Notice" from Interpol to arrest a woman named Sabreen Saeedi, (apparently a Sununuh or "Swallow" agent) for alleged involvement in the Assyud abduction. The video footage showed Saeedi luring Assyud to fly from Sweden to Turkey and meeting him in a petrol station 80 km (50 miles) from Istanbul. He was then abducted by Zindashti's gang and driven 1,600 km (994 miles) to Iran to stand trial.

Another Sununuh agent, Sherine Najaf, is suspected of luring dissident journalist Ruhollah Zam from Belgium to Iraq, where he was kidnapped. Ram was executed by hanging on Dec. 12.

In 2018, Zindashti and members of his gang were charged in Turkey with drug trafficking, the murder of another Iranian ex-pat named Saeed Karimian, the founder and director of JAM TV channels, and drug-related killings. They were soon released, apparently as a result of a combination of lawbreaking, bribery, lack of evidence and political pressure from sources close to Erdoğan.

Zindashti, the head of a criminal and drug trafficking organization, served the long arm of Iranian intelligence in Turkey and Romania.

Exiled Iranian journalists working for Iran International television station in London reported that they had received indications that Zindashti was also involved in the assassination of a senior Iranian judge, Gholamreza Mansouri, at a hotel in Romania's capital in June 2020. According to the station, Zindashti passed an order from Iran to his cousin, Hossein Karimi Rickabadi, a well-known international criminal in Romania, to eliminate the judge, who held considerable information about the corruption of senior Iranian regime figures.

Mansouri's death was ruled a suicide (he jumped from the fifth floor of his Bucharest hotel), but his family raised many questions about the cause of death and why Iranian diplomats instructed him to go from Germany to Romania after receiving medical treatment in a German hospital. They claim his mysterious transfer to Romania happened to avoid assassinating him on German soil, which would have come at a high diplomatic, political and economic price for the Iranian regime.

Zindashti was also wanted in Greece in 2014 after the discovery of the largest shipment of heroin in European history. After the two-ton shipment was uncovered on a freighter, a series of mysterious murders took place in various countries. In September 2014, Zindashti's 19-year-old daughter, Arzu Sherifi Zindashti, was shot dead in Istanbul's Büyükçekmece district on her way to Istanbul University. Zindashti's partners in the drug deal found themselves on the receiving end of the mob boss's rage. Media outlets in Turkey, Greece and other countries pointed the finger at Zindashti in connection with at least 10 murders.

After 13 years under surveillance in Turkey for killing his opponents, Zindashti probably realized that returning to Iran would be a smarter act, and that if he cooperated with Iranian intelligence, he could also run his organization in Turkey from Iran, thus securing his future.

Zindashti's murder and kidnapping spree

Many high-profile murders and abductions of Iranian exiles are attributed to Zindashti's organization:

• On May 30, 2017, Saeed Karimian and his Kuwaiti partner, Mohammed Mutayeb Salihi, were killed in an attack on a private vehicle in Istanbul's Sharir district. Turkey said that the assassin fled (presumably to Iran).
• On Nov. 14, 2019, Masoud Mulvey, founder of Telegram Black Box, which published information about Iranian intelligence, was murdered on a major street in Istanbul. According to Turkish security officials, the gunman was a gardener at Zindashti's villa in Istanbul. The perpetrator was apparently arrested.
• On Oct. 23, 2020, Assyud was abducted from Turkey by the Zindashti gang and transferred to Iran. The crew, numbering 13 people, was recently arrested by Turkish security forces.
• In January 2019, Dutch Foreign Minister Stef Blok revealed that his government's secret service "had strong indications that Iran was involved in the assassinations of two Dutch nationals of Iranian origin, in Almere in 2015 and The Hague in 2017." He defined the Iranian actions as "blatantly damaging to Dutch sovereignty and completely unacceptable." The victims were Ahmad Molla Nissi, a senior ASMLA official murdered in November 2017 at the doorstep of his home in The Hague, and Ali Motamed, who was murdered near his home in Almere in December 2015. Hezbollah maintains ties with Dutch criminal elements in various fields, including drug trafficking.
• In recent years, European intelligence services have uncovered – with the assistance of Israeli intelligence – several other attempts by Iran to target Iranian opposition activists on European soil.
• In 2018, Albania expelled Iran's ambassador and another diplomat, who it claimed were involved in efforts to target opposition figures in the country. Then, in January 2020, Albania expelled another two Iranian diplomats for "endangering Albania's national security." The two were identified as an Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps official and a member of the Iranian Intelligence Agency MOIS. They were reported to be associates of Quds Force commander Gen. Qassem Soleimani.
• In October 2018, Danish and Swiss officials uncovered an Iranian agent intent on assassinating an ASMLA activist in Copenhagen.

Iran's intelligence services, including the Intelligence Ministry and IRGC (especially its Quds Force operating outside Iran), use various "covers" for their intelligence and terrorism activities. Iranian embassies, consulates and delegations traveling abroad serve as cover for terrorist activities and intelligence gathering, while Iran uses Iran Air aircraft for similar purposes. Iranian intelligence officials also turn to international crime and drug cartels (such as the attempt to murder the Saudi ambassador to the United States in 2011) to carry out assassinations and gather intelligence, and use drug money to finance their activity, which hides official Iranian involvement.

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Meanwhile, mobster Zindashti fled to Iran, where he lives a public life, working openly with the Iranian Intelligence Ministry and, according to "informed sources," running his drug business.

Iran has claimed for decades that "unsung soldiers" of its intelligence services are deployed across the country and beyond. It is now clear that at least some of these "unsung soldiers" are operating through major crime and drug trafficking organizations.

It should be noted that over the years, even as Iran has carried out assassinations in European countries, these Western nations have maintained trade relations with it, while ignoring repeated human rights violations in Iran and global terrorist operations outside it. Even now, despite the sanctions imposed on the Iranian Intelligence Ministry, the European Union's primary interest is to continue the economic ties with Iran. This is despite the pressure from human rights groups to condition the issue of economic cooperation to improving the regime's conduct in the area of human rights violations.

Iran's "Teflon shield" may provide more immunity ahead of US President-elect Joe Biden's entry into the White House in January and the possibility of a US return to the framework of the JCPOA nuclear agreement in 2021.

Reprinted with permission from JNS.org

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Following the Nov. 27 assassination of Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, the head of Iran's military nuclear program, security officials in general and top Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps officials, in particular, are increasingly critical and frustrated over the chronic weakness of the Iranian regime, government institutions and especially the intelligence agencies, which are supposed to safeguard senior officials and scientists and prevent "the infiltration of enemies into Iran's security system."

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The criticism, mainly but not exclusively directed toward President Hassan Rouhani's government, is part of the local political campaigns ahead of Iran's June 2021 presidential elections. It is also a part of a broader debate ahead over the resumption of a dialogue with US President-elect Biden's administration, expected to enter the White House in January 2021. The Iranian response to Fakhrizadeh's assassination will affect relations with the Biden administration, especially given that Biden has already announced his readiness to negotiate a resumption of the 2015 nuclear deal with Iran.

Current and former IRGC officials and other conservative officials point to the exposure and large-scale penetration of the country by Israeli intelligence services, with the aid of local opposition figures. They estimate that Israel will continue with this policy, covertly, under the new US administration in the United States.

The normalization of relations between Israel and the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain, as well as the rapprochement with Saudi Arabia, the leader of the moderate Arab Sunni camp, intensifies fears among Iranian security and intelligence officials regarding Israeli intelligence activities in the region. They fear that Israel is expanding relations with countries around Iran, which would allow Israel a more convenient springboard for operational activity inside Iran and along its borders. After the resumption of relations between Israel and the UAE, many Iranian officials, including Rouhani, warned of this possibility and even directly threatened the leaders of the UAE and Bahrain.

This controlled response was carried out in anticipation of a change of administration in the United States. Additionally, it was apparently a result of operational weakness following Soleimani's assassination and the appointment of his successor, Esmail Ghaani. Iran has refrained from any high-profile activity against American targets in Iraq and in the region.

Iran's former Minister of Defense Hossein Dehghan, an adviser to Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei who also served as commander of the IRGC in Lebanon, said in an interview with Iranian state television on Nov. 28 that "infiltration" and "breaches of security" led to the assassination of Fakhrizadeh, and that those responsible for security "must be held accountable" for it.

On the one hand, Dehghan rejected criticism regarding the weak protection of Fakhrizadeh, but on the other he implicitly criticized the country's security services, saying that despite the regime's "intelligence expertise," a number of "security infiltrations" had taken place, including the 2017 Tehran terror attacks carried out by the Islamic State of Iraq and Levant (ISIL) against the Iranian Parliament (Majlis).

Hossein Alaei, a former IRGC commander, said that the assassination of Fakhrizadeh, who in addition to his scientific role held the rank of brigadier-general in the IRGC, was based on "accurate information" the enemies had obtained as a result of "weakness in the structure of Iranian security apparatuses." Israel's espionage infrastructure was still active within Iran, he said, adding, "This is the seventh assassination of Iranian nuclear scientists."

For more than 10 years, Israel has been conducting various operations inside Iran, including the elimination of scientists. The operation to assassinate the head of the Ministry of Defense Research and Innovation Organization indicates that Israel's operational infrastructure within Iran is well-equipped, very advanced and has access to accurate information. "So far, Israel has used all its intelligence, operational, security, cyber and diplomatic capabilities to counter Iran's nuclear program, and it is likely that this [Israeli] program is likely to continue," said Alaei.

Against this backdrop, Alaei emphasized that "regardless of Israel's intentions to carry out such assassinations, Iran must examine the weaknesses inherent in Iran's structure and security apparatuses, which enable the assassinations of esteemed victims like Fakhrizadeh despite an array of bodyguards for their protection."

Alaei, a candidate for the presidency after Rouhani, has repeatedly expressed support for dialogue with Americans and opposed radical regime conservatives. Regarding Fakhrizadeh's death, he added that "the recent assassination shows that Iran's operational and diplomatic responses so far to the assassinations of its scientists have not been a deterrent … Hopefully, the death of Dr. Fakhrizadeh will lead to a fatal blow to Israel's intelligence and operational infrastructure inside Iran."

Mohsen Rezaee, who commanded the IRGC during the eight-year Iran-Iraq war and who is currently a secretary of the regime's Expediency Discernment Council, also stated that the continued assassinations of senior Iranian scientists point to "the weakness of the country's intelligence organizations. The attacks must be curbed with double and double efforts."

Rezaee also addressed a letter to President Hassan Rouhani, pointing out that the president, who heads the National Security Council, should assign intelligence agencies the task of "identifying the main sources and infiltrators into the heart of Iran's intelligence agencies." He suggested that "civilian assistance and advanced technology" could be used for the investigation. He also warned that if such incidents continue, it would indicate a dangerous weakness of the Iranian intelligence systems.

"The Iranian people expect you [Rouhani], as the Chairman of the Supreme National Security Council, to prevent such terrorist acts and not to allow Iran's national security, which has been secured with the blood of thousands of precious victims, to be undermined."

The ultra-conservative newspaper Kayhan, reflecting the Iranian leader's opinion, quoted in its Nov. 29 headline Khamenei's remarks instructing the Iranian government to investigate the crime and severely punish its perpetrators and those who dispatched them. He further emphasized that "the martyr's scientific and technological efforts" should be continued.

Two days before, on Nov. 27, Kayhan stated, "The action of the Zionist regime in the elimination of our country's prominent scientist showed once again that this cancerous growth [Israel] continues all its efforts to halt Iran's scientific progress, and it does not fear any dirty action."

"What happened is one of the hundreds of terrorist acts carried out by the Zionist regime around the world over decades," Kayhan stated. "The Zionist regime receives intelligence and operational support from the United States and of some European countries. [They eliminated] politicians and scientists, cultural figures and military personnel, as well as anyone who is an obstacle to the progress of their domineering goals. The only thing that can halt this assassination machine is a timely and real ["tooth-shattering"] retaliation. The Zionists have proved time and again that they do not understand any other language rather than the language of power. The law of an eye for an eye will put these cowardly creatures in their place. The Zionists must wait for it."

Hossein Shariatmadari, Kayhan's editor-in-chief and Khamenei's representative, directed an editorial (Nov. 28) at Iran's leaders: "How can the Zionist regime, which is on the brink of decay today and surrounded by resistance forces on all sides, so easily murder our nuclear scientists?!"

He added, "Today, all the attention of the Iranian people and the Iranian regime must be focused on two targets: the first, the harsh retaliation against the criminal Zionists that will make them regret, and the second is identifying internal elements and possible infiltrators of the enemy into Iran's intelligence security systems."

Shariatmadari also called for "attacking the important port city of Haifa, destroying the strategic facilities, and causing heavy human casualties" to reach a "real deterrent point." Dr. Sadollah Zarei, an Iranian scholar and political analyst, wrote in Kayhan that Iran's reaction to suspected Israeli airstrikes that killed IRGC forces in Syria wasn't enough to deter Israel, while "striking Haifa … will definitely lead to deterrence because the United States and Israel are not ready to participate in a war and a military confrontation."

In Iran, the dilemma is growing with regard to how and where to respond to Fakhrizadeh's assassination, and how far to stretch the regime's restraint. So far, Iran has not responded as it is "required" to by the threats it issued following the deaths of Hezbollah international operations chief Imad Mughniyeh, Soleimani, operatives associated with Hezbollah's precision missile program, IRGC personnel in Syria, important figures among the pro-Iranian militias in Iraq, and others.

It is possible that Iran will continue its policy of restraint and choose to strike "easier" targets that are allied to the United States and Israel, such as the oil facilities and strategic infrastructure in Saudi Arabia. Such an attack took place on Sept. 19, 2019, with precision cruise missiles hitting the Saudi oil processing facilities in Abqaiq and Khurais.

In this regard, on Nov. 23, the Iranian Mehr news agency broadcast a video of an Aramco oil distribution site in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, being hit by Quds-2 missiles launched by the Houthis in Yemen. Iran could be waiting for the new US administration, which might limit Israel's aggressive activities while negotiations are in the offing and test Israel-American relations, which reached new heights during Trump's presidency.

With the long-range missile attacks on Abqaiq and Khurais and periodic Houthi missile launches against strategic targets in Saudi Arabia, Iran demonstrated that it has the operational know-how to launch surprise attacks on strategic sites, including in Israel, with stealthy, precision cruise missiles.

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One way or another, Iran must conduct a thorough house-cleaning in response to the repeated infiltrations and attacks on its security and intelligence establishments. These recurring intelligence operations have targeted Iran's scientists, nuclear infrastructure (such as the explosion in the Natanz enrichment facility in July 2020) and sometimes its electricity and oil facilities. As it has in the past, the regime will publicize over the next few weeks and in the run-up to presidential elections the arrests of people ostensibly involved in the attacks and espionage, so that it may salvage some of its honor among the Iranian people, who are exposed to details of the calamities via social media, international reports and the joyful Iranian opposition.

IDF Lt. Col. (ret.) Michael (Mickey) Segall, an expert on strategic issues with a focus on Iran, terrorism, and the Middle East, is a senior analyst at the Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs and at Alcyon Risk Advisers.

Reprinted with permission from JNS.org.

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Behrouz Kamalvandi, spokesman for Iran's Atomic Energy Organization (AEOI), said Iran would start enriching uranium to a higher purity than 3.67%. The IAEA has confirmed that Iran is now enriching uranium to a higher level. Iran has previously said it needs 5% enrichment for its Bushehr nuclear power plant and 20% for the research reactor in Tehran.

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From a 20% enrichment level, it is a short way to the 90% level needed to produce nuclear weapons.

Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister for Political Affairs Abbas Araqchi said Iran had prepared a step-by-step strategy for further eroding its nuclear commitments in collaboration with the AEOI. Araqchi was speaking at a press briefing together with Kamalvandi and government spokesman Ali Rabiei, to officially announce the start of uranium enrichment beyond levels stipulated in the JCPOA.

Araqchi added that Iran has set a new 60-day deadline for the remaining European JCPOA signatories while threatening that it will take a "third step" of scaling back its commitments unless its demands are met.

On May 8, 2019, exactly one year after the United States withdrew from the JCPOA, Iran gave the other signatories 60 days to meet their commitments to provide Iran with the economic benefits it is entitled to under the deal.

Araqchi said a letter written by Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif had been sent to the EU foreign policy chief Federica Mogherini to formally announce the second 60-day deadline and the launch of the "second step" of Iran's scaling back on its commitments under the JCPOA, including raised levels of uranium enrichment. He added that details of the "third step" will be announced in due time.

"The AEOI is ready to implement the required measures at any point," he said, adding that "we have totally contemplated the third and next steps." He said Iran is simultaneously conducting "diplomatic consultations" and planning "political initiatives."

Iran is continuing to exert heavy diplomatic pressure on Europe while taking actions that are clear breaches of the nuclear deal. Tehran claims it wants to create symmetry in relations between the signatories and says its violations are a response to the European countries' infringements of their economic commitments to Iran – particularly regarding the INSTEX mechanism that is meant to circumvent the American sanctions. The mechanism – a "mechanism without money" as the president of Iran called it – has indeed begun to operate in part, but is still far from satisfying Iran's demands.

Iranian President Hassan Rouhani said that starting on July 7, Iran would accelerate its plans to renew work at the heavy-water reactor in Arak so that it can produce plutonium and "restore [the reactor] to its previous state, if the Europeans do not honor their commitments."

Iran has not yet closed the door on a resumption of negotiations. It emphasizes that the calculated steps it has taken and will take are reversible and that it will uphold the nuclear agreement as long as the other side fulfills its terms. At the same time, the verbal wrangling between US President Donald Trump and the Iranian leadership continues, focusing on Iran's violations of the deal and a possible reaction to them. In response to Rouhani's words, Trump tweeted: "Be careful with the threats, Iran. They can come back to bite you like nobody has been bitten before!" Previously Trump had tweeted that "Iran is playing with fire."

In reaction, Rouhani said in a governmental meeting on July 3, "If the United States is afraid of fire, it should not ignite it. … Fires can be put out only by honoring obligations and UN resolutions." The Iranian president added that it was the United States that began "the fireworks display in the region about a year ago [by withdrawing from the agreement], and it is the one now claiming that Iran is the one playing with fire."

Rouhani criticized the European countries for a policy of starving the 82 million people of Iran and said that Iran would carry out its plan to breach the agreement once the ultimatum expired. This, he said, was intended to "salvage the nuclear deal."

Iranian Foreign Minister Zarif insisted that Iran's decision to increase its stock of enriched uranium beyond the quantity permitted by the nuclear deal does not constitute a violation and that Iran is entitled to overstep it based on Article 36 of the agreement (which deals with cases of violations by one of the sides).

"If the Europeans claim that they continue to abide by the agreement," Zarif continued, "then they too must honor the guarantees contained in it. But so far, to our sorrow, a year after the United States withdrew from the deal, they have not done enough to salvage it and hence Iran has been forced to withdraw from some of its commitments."

Zarif added that "as Iran's president said, the steps are reversible if the Europeans act as they should." The Iranian foreign minister added that the INSTEX mechanism to circumvent the sanctions is no more than a gateway toward fulfilling all of Europe's obligations. "The Europeans pledged to ensure the sale of Iranian oil and to return assets but have not done so." When asked what would happen if the United States were to impose sanctions on the mechanism, Zarif replied: "That is a problem for Europe to solve by itself."

Israel will be destroyed in half an hour

Alongside the diplomatic activity and the nuclear steps Iran embarked on in contravention of the agreement, senior Iranian officials continue to warn of the repercussions of a military clash with the United States and its allies in the region.

On June 30, 2019, Mojtaba Zalnour, who was recently elected chairman of the Majlis' (Iranian parliament's) National Security and Foreign Policy Committee, said that if the United States attacks Iran, "Israel will be destroyed in half an hour." Zalnour, who served in the past as the Supreme Leader's deputy representative to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, is one of the prominent opponents of the nuclear deal (indeed, he burned it together with the American flag after the deal was confirmed).

Zalnour claimed that the American Global Hawk naval surveillance drone shot down by Iran on June 20, 2019, was located in the same area where the US Navy downed an Iranian passenger plane (Iran Air Flight 655) on July 3, 1984, a landmark incident in tense Iranian-US relations. Zalnour remarked: "At that time the United States managed to hit us, today we are hitting them." He added that "we also have the ability to sink aircraft carriers." He said at the time of the drone intercept, Iran could have intercepted an American surveillance plane with 25 passengers aboard but refrained from doing so.

Iran marked the downing of Iran Air Flight 655 on July 3, 1988, by the American USS Vincennes cruiser, in memorial ceremonies and the announcement of a cartoon competition depicting the United States as a terrorist state.

Although the United States and Iran are maintaining their harsh rhetoric, the door has not yet closed on a renewal of the negotiations on the nuclear deal in a way that would placate both sides. Until July 10 Iran avoided high-profile attacks in the Persian Gulf or Iraq, though in Yemen the Houthis continue to attack targets in Saudi territory (as they had already begun to do on the eve of the crisis). The United States, for its part, is also signaling it does not want war.

Meanwhile, Iran keeps signaling to Europe, as part of diplomatic pressure aimed at renewing the negotiations and getting Europe to fulfill its obligations, that Iran is serious about breaching its commitments and increasing the rate of uranium production as well as the enrichment level. At the same time, Tehran says that the steps are reversible and depend on what Europe does. The United States is staying with its policy of harsh sanctions. Possibly, though, as a goodwill gesture toward the renewal of negotiations, it will again allow a certain amount of leeway for some countries regarding oil exports, or at least refrain from imposing sanctions on the mechanism for circumventing the sanctions.

In any case, both sides now prefer the diplomatic game (which may already be transpiring behind the scenes) and are settling for heated rhetoric instead of war. Will the internal debate within the Trump administration be settled enough to push the demands on Iran's ballistic missiles and terrorism activity off the agenda in return for an achievement on the nuclear issue (such as extending the sunset clause)? Or will the administration stick to its demands while increasing the sanctions? The issue has yet to be decided.

Reprinted with permission from JNS.org.

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