Hamas is currently confronting an existential challenge it has never faced since its inception. The population is utterly worn out, confidence is deteriorating, and the exhausted Gazan public is no longer lauding the mouqawamah (resistance) but asking instead, "where is the bread". Local militias – including armed tribes, rebellious factions, and even former Hamas operatives – are defying the organization, weakening its authority, and triggering internal conflicts. Hamas, once the strip's iron-fisted ruler, must now handle this through the Wahdat Sahm, its Gestapo, facing a double threat: internal collapse and vengeance from external militias.

The Gazans, on their part, are moving in great numbers toward the Al-Mawasi area. These convoys also symbolize the break from Hamas, indicating a profound shift. An increasing number of citizens now view the organization not as the "protector of the nation" but as a "curse". Many are willing to take the risk with Israel if it provides hope for genuine change.

Simultaneously, the Arab bloc is uniting around a clear objective – to conclude the Gaza episode and bring back stability. Egypt, Saudi Arabia, the Emirates, and even Qatar, have started to indicate that "the resistance" has turned into a strategic liability. The damage caused by the Houthis to commercial trade, the significant economic expenditures, and the concern about the potential for another regional conflict all contribute to a new consensus. Hamas is no longer perceived as part of the solution but as the primary barrier to achieving it.

Trump, undeniably one of Israel's greatest allies in history who has stood by Israel in the most challenging times against the entire world, but in collaboration with Steve Witkoff, perceives Gaza as a venue for a deal, not necessarily a dangerous minefield. Both are real estate professionals who operate on the belief that when an asset declines, one merely needs to purchase it at a low price, refurbish it, and sell it for a profit. This mindset, however, is ill-suited for the Middle East. Here, the "refurbishment" involves a deep psychological transformation, and the assets are not lucrative, as the foundations are built on beliefs and blood. Consequently, his dangerously naive declaration that "Hamas wants lasting peace" reflects a fundamental misunderstanding. In the world of real estate professionals, there is no consideration for the Islamic concept of taqiyya: a calculated deception for survival that allows Hamas to feign compromise while actively regrouping.

The actual deal right now is not between Israel and Hamas, but between Washington and itself. Will the US uphold the unequivocal 20-point plan it authored, which received international support, or will it gnaw at its own tail like a cornered animal. The pressure for a "compromise," combined with the vast Qatari funding and the appeal of a "historic deal," will achieve their purpose. Hamas is experiencing a historic nadir. Therefore, it currently appears that Hamas might accept the "soft" components of the agreement in part, enough to claim an internal victory but without relinquishing its arms. Israel will be compelled to grant substantial relief and concessions in exchange for the deal's implementation. The remaining factors depend on US pressure and the disorganized dynamic on the Gazan street.

In the end, Trump may discover yet again that the Middle East is not an Atlantic City casino available for a contract closing, but rather a mysterious, deeply ancient archaeological site complete with ancient labyrinths and secrets. The hidden elements outweigh the known ones: blood, faith, and its own unique tribal laws. Here, an "agreement" serves only as a preface to a new stage, rather than the conclusion of the entire narrative.

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Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu at his side was much more focused, even statesmanlike, and the gap between them was evident. It is hard to imagine Trump persuading Saudi Arabia, Egypt, or even Jordan to sign onto Netanyahu's version.

Video: Trump and Netanyahu on Sept. 30, 2025 / Credit: Reuters

And yet, behind this American-Israeli scene hides another stage, Doha, Qatar. A place that already knows how to close deals that appear impossible on paper.

It is very possible that this chapter in the Middle Eastern saga was already quietly closed in the corridors of a department in a hospital in Doha, where perhaps the foreign leadership of Hamas has been hospitalized since the failed assassination attempt. When also considering the strange anecdote about Netanyahu's apology, there are those who see this as no more than a complementary move to a grand bargain finalized in Qatar.

It is hard not to recall another Trumpist agreement that was also signed in Doha – only with a different kind of enemy, "Agreement for Bringing Peace to Afghanistan." The agreement with the Taliban, February 2020, looked then like a historic breakthrough. Mutual commitments, withdrawal of American forces on an almost military timeline, commitments by the Taliban to sever ties with al-Qaida and to open dialogue with the Kabul government – there was grand language of peace there.

It took less than a month for that bubble to burst. The Taliban returned to attacking the Afghan army, al-Qaida ties were not severed, and the talks with the central government sputtered until they disappeared. The agreement turned from golden yellow to a resounding farce.

Trump got from the Taliban a technical ceasefire against the Americans, and in return later handed the country to the Taliban.

Here comes the obvious question, is "Doha 2.0," with Hamas this time on stage, looking different? Or is it again grains of sand that will scatter in the desert wind?

Optimism with a trap

For Israel, on the face of it, this is a peak of achievements. An American administration that adopts most of the Israeli version and promises full backing is not taken for granted in an era of hostile international public opinion and diplomatic pressures from all sides. Israel succeeded in bringing the optimal combination, a diplomatic-security plan that touches the heart of Israel's declared war goals, while receiving a rubber stamp from the White House. The question of whether this will really translate on the ground is much less clear.

Hamas holds the cards tightly in its hands, the hostages. To demand blanket release in 72 hours, without the organization remaining with any bargaining chip, is almost a fantasy. Even if Trump and Bibi think there is a document that obligates this, the people of Gaza will always find a way to evade, "The hostage is held by a rogue clan"; "We need time to locate the hostages"; or a modern version of "The computer fell out of our bag." The procrastination will be a built-in part of the strategy.

The issue of disarming Hamas is perhaps the central landmine in the future agreement. Israel can insist, the US can commit, Trump can promise in a hoarse voice, but for Hamas this is a matter of survival. The last weeks revealed a new reality in Gaza, the dense population is moving south despite the organization's threats, its authority is slipping, and above all – the greatest fear is not Iron Dome or the paratrooper brigade, but the local clans: Those strong families, who, when the regime loses grip, will try to settle personal scores and perhaps also take over Hamas' bloated cash box. Here lies the real threat from the perspective of the leadership in Gaza. Israel is a clear and stable enemy, but chaos is an existential danger.

Days of upheavals are ahead of us. It is possible that the first conditions for releasing some of the hostages will be set already this week. It is possible that the effect will be delayed, that the familiar Palestinian evasion campaign will continue. It is not impossible that we will discover that even before the cameras flashed at the White House, the most important chapter was already written in Doha. And if history teaches anything, even a deal signed in glittering ceremonies can dissipate in the sounds of explosions coming from hospitals, mosques, and neighborhoods in southern Gaza.

Hamas will not rush to give up all its bargaining cards within 72 hours.

We all hope that the agreement will take shape and materialize and the hostages will return home. However, the common denominator between the two "Doha agreements," that of the Taliban and this one brewing against Hamas, is the temptation to embrace an illusion, that a publicized text and detailed wording are enough to change a complex political and social reality. In reality, deep dynamics are stronger and more consistent than any document. Trump perhaps looked tired in front of the cameras, but the real fatigue is that of the whole world in the face of the repetitiveness of this tragic comedy.

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For a brief moment, his arrest by the Shin Bet security agency rattled the nation. But when his sentencing came down, 10 years in prison, no fine, the shock turned to a whisper. Moti Maman, convicted of grave espionage, is expected to serve only about three years due to mitigating circumstances. No real deterrent. It was as if a burglar caught red-handed had been sent home with a stern warning.

Iran's tactic: digital phishing at scale

Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has discarded the slow, resource-heavy traditions of classical espionage: no more lengthy vetting, grueling training, or elaborate cover stories. Instead, they've embraced a model that's raw, direct, and disturbingly effective. Through aggressive mass campaigns on social media, thousands of Israelis are being approached. Messages like "Want to earn some easy cash?" now pepper the digital landscape. No serious screening or background checks, just a Telegram or email message offering money for a "simple task." Track a senior figure. Snap a photo of a base. Willing to try? You're in.

This is Iran's version of digital marketing applied to espionage: blanket targeting, no filters. And like any marketing effort, only a tiny fraction need to respond for the campaign to succeed. To Tehran, even a one percent success rate from a thousand messages is worth it. It's a chillingly rational approach: volume will eventually produce the quality they seek. And sadly, it works.

Iran treats its Israeli recruits not as valuable "assets," but as disposable tools. Their safety and fate are irrelevant. What matters is short-term gain. A Persian proverb captures it well: "The patient enemy triumphs over the hasty and sweaty." Iran isn't in a rush. It doesn't invest heavily in any one recruit. It casts a wide net, knowing that even a few successful catches are enough. The cost of "customer acquisition" is virtually zero, while the potential damage is immense. This isn't brilliant strategy, it's just relentless. Like a company that keeps advertising a faulty product, knowing someone will eventually buy.

Justice system lags behind

The Shin Bet does impressive work uncovering and thwarting these plots time and again. But once a case reaches the courtroom, the system falters. Weak evidence claims, outdated legal frameworks, and lenient sentencing all contribute to a breakdown in deterrence. Today's espionage doesn't involve trench coats and dead drops, it happens on Facebook, paid in dollars. Yet the legal response still treats it like a relic of another era.

World powers have tried mass recruitment strategies before, and failed spectacularly. During the Cold War, the US attempted to enlist civilians in Eastern Europe, especially Czechoslovakia, for propaganda and espionage. Nearly all were caught and publicly humiliated. The Soviet Union tried a similar approach in the 1950s in the US, with most agents captured by the FBI.

But Iran, unlike those states, has little to lose. As one old principle goes: "If even one in a thousand efforts succeeds, it's worth it." That's especially true when failures carry virtually no consequences for the recruiting state, and barely any for the recruited individuals.

The Shin Bet investigates, arrests, and prevents. But once the case enters the legal system, the same pattern unfolds: "evidentiary difficulties" and a gradual erosion of deterrence. Prosecutors rarely push for maximum penalties, and judges rely on outdated sentencing norms ill-suited to the diffuse, digital nature of modern espionage.

The recent case involving Iranian attempts to recruit young Israelis to target Defense Minister Israel Katz underscores a troubling shift. This wasn't just spying, it was an effort to threaten Israel's leadership. Iran is trying to rewrite the rules of engagement, to instill fear at the highest levels.

Time for a paradigm shift

The time has come for a radical change. Mandatory minimum sentences for espionage offenses, without room for leniency. Heavy financial penalties, multiples of the compensation received by the spy. Broad asset forfeitures, to ensure that espionage simply doesn't pay. And in extreme cases of betrayal, serious consideration should be given to revoking citizenship.

As in business, when the cost of failure is negligible, failure itself can start to look like a "smart risk." If spies are released quickly, without fines, stigma, or financial ruin, the message is clear: Go ahead and try. Worst case, you'll get a slap on the wrist and a short timeout.

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In a display of timing that rivals the most gripping drama, Israel has dealt a devastating blow to two of its most formidable adversaries. The near-simultaneous elimination of two key figures in Hezbollah and Hamas – Fouad Shukr in Beirut's Haret Hreik neighborhood, the heart of Hezbollah's stronghold, and Ismail Haniyeh in central Tehran, just after the Iranian president's inauguration – has created an impact that reverberates far beyond the immediate events.

In the symbol-rich world of Islam, the almost concurrent elimination of these two figures carries profound significance. This event deals a severe blow to Iran's image and shatters the self-assurance of the radical axis. Currently, a cloud of confusion hangs over Tehran, Beirut, and Gaza.

The intelligence vulnerability of Iran and its allies, coupled with the Israeli military's remarkable boldness and operational capabilities, pose a genuine challenge to Iran and its partners. In the immediate term, they are expected to attempt damage control, primarily by identifying leak sources and creating impenetrable security circles around key figures.

Simultaneously, Iran will strive to execute an appropriate response. The challenge will be to formulate a reaction powerful enough to convey an unequivocal message, without dragging Iran into a full-scale regional conflict. Like a master strategist, Iran will attempt to exert force while maintaining surgical precision.

Israel is well-acquainted with Iran's arsenal and capabilities. To the best of our knowledge, they do not possess any secret game-changing weapon, and therefore, the expected response will likely follow familiar patterns of action. However, since the current confrontation depends more on outcomes than intentions, even a stray missile or a high-casualty event could ignite the powder keg of a full-scale war.

The coming days are expected to be tense and emotionally charged. Nevertheless, Israel can stand tall with pride, for despite everything, it possesses one of the world's finest military and intelligence apparatuses. The fact that there are reliable forces to depend on serves as a source of confidence in these trying times.

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The world is witnessing a deeply disturbing resurgence of antisemitism on a scale unparalleled since the Nazi atrocities of World War II. Holocaust deniers, once relegated to the fringes of society, are reemerging and propagating falsehoods.

While the historical record unequivocally establishes Adolf Hitler's direct, personal orchestration of the Final Solution and the genocide of European Jewry, a longstanding point of contention has centered on the absence of any document explicitly bearing Hitler's signature, instruction, or recorded admission linking him to the logistical planning of the mass murder campaign.

A collaboration between renowned Holocaust scholar Professor Gideon Greif and former senior Mossad agent Oded Eilam has now uncovered a crucial piece of evidence that forges a more direct connection between Hitler and the Final Solution's implementation.

Calculated obfuscation

Though Hitler's rhetoric was peppered with menacing foreshadowings of violence against Jews over the years, the documented evidence of his direct involvement and awareness of the genocidal atrocities being perpetrated in the extermination camps remains largely circumstantial. The Nazi dictator meticulously distanced himself from any official record that could directly incriminate him in these monstrous crimes against humanity.

Hitler clearly grasped the grave criminal and historical implications of his policy of industrialized mass murder. He therefore left the grisly logistical details to subordinates like Heinrich Himmler, Joseph Goebbels, and others.

For decades, historians and researchers have debated the extent of Hitler's personal oversight and interest in the minutiae of implementing the Final Solution. The prevailing view has been that while fully cognizant of the genocide, he was not particularly invested in the operational specifics, which he delegated to his underlings.

In their meticulous examination of Hitler's extensive speeches and addresses, Greif and Eilam found that even as the dictator issued thinly veiled threats of genocide should war erupt, he conspicuously avoided any admission that such an unconscionable policy was actively underway.

The damning testimony

That remained the case until their landmark discovery of Hitler's long-overlooked Nov. 8, 1942 speech. In a departure from his typical inflammatory rhetoric, Hitler deviated from comments about the eastern front situation to make an extraordinary reference comparing the implementation of his earlier "prophecies" about the Jews to what was then transpiring:

"They always ridiculed me as a prophet. Today, many of those who laughed at that time are no longer laughing. Those who are still laughing now may also not laugh after some time... International Jewry will be recognized for all its demonic danger in all of Europe and throughout the world. We, the National Socialists, will take care of that."

"This danger is recognized in Europe, and one country after another is adopting our legislation. We see today in this great struggle only one possible and sole result – that of absolute success, and now the only question that remains is whether there are any reasons to doubt this success."

This chilling statement came in late 1942, by which time the industrialized genocide against Jews had entered its most horrific phase following the construction of the six dedicated extermination camps in occupied Poland. At the time, Hitler still delusionally believed total victory was inevitable.

By linking the "prophecies" he claims to have made about the Jews to their systematic extermination then underway, Hitler effectively directly incriminated himself for the possibly first and only time in orchestrating the unprecedented genocide. This marked a startling departure from his customary practice of maintaining arm's length separation from any implicating documentation.

The persistence of denial

Hitler's obvious determination to avoid leaving an incriminating paper trail has, perversely, provided ample fuel for Holocaust denial and revisionism by those seeking to minimize or absolve his direct culpability. Many deniers have seized on this absence of documentation to cast doubt on the extent of Hitler's involvement or even exculpate him entirely.

More insidiously, some fringe assertions even go so far as to claim the genocide was simply a Himmler- or SS-led initiative in which Hitler played no operational role, or to ludicrously allege that the death tolls were vastly inflated.

Chillingly, these pernicious denial efforts have seen a disturbing renaissance in the modern era, particularly amplified across social media following the Oct. 7 onslaught by the Hamas terror organization. A concerted disinformation campaign has sought to rewrite the narrative by denying the massacres entirely or portraying them as isolated incidents by rogue actors rather than a coordinated policy.

This makes Hitler's extraordinary November 1942 statement acknowledging the ongoing extermination of Jews as the realization of his "prophecy" all the more vital.

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